Public Policy Polling (aka PPP) just released numbers on their recently conducted North Carolina poll, and they have Obama up 49-46.
This is a slight increase for Obama since PPP's last poll of North Carolina (released on July 8th) which had Obama up 47-46.
Since November 2010, PPP has polled North Carolina 22 times, and all but one of those has polls has shown Obama and Romney within three points of each other.
Obama has a negative net approval rating (-1), which is actually not so bad considering that Nate Silver over at 538 has North Carolina fairly solidly in the Romney camp. Among national pundits and our own Kossack writers, NC is thought to be the 2nd state (after Indiana) mostly likely to switch over from Obama to Romney. The fact that Obama is leading in this poll and has kept it close with others bodes well for him and awful for Romney.
Also, according to cross-tabs, Romney has a negative net favorable rating (-8), so NC isn't sold on Romney.
I think most important part of this poll are the cross-tabs in regard to people born in NC versus those who have moved there. For those born in NC, Obama and Romney are tied at 47-47. But among NC residents who have moved there from somewhere else, Obama leads Romney at a small but outside-the-error margin of 51-45.
More striking, residents of NC who have been living there less than 10 years favor Obama by a whopping 66-27. If the northern migration to NC continues, NC will move much closer to leaning blue than it has trended even in recent past, at least at the national level.
As a bit of personal commentary, I'm pretty surprised that Obama is leading in this poll (and at least keeping it very close in others) in a state where a gay marriage ban passed pretty handily. I know that election was in an off-peak time (as figures by Republicans) but still, it's surprising.
Any thoughts as to whether holding the convention in Charlotte can fire up morale and GOTV efforts in this must-win state for Romney? Colorado's margin ended up being so large that any extra 1% didn't matter, but for North Carolina, that extra convention boost could be significant as to holding the state for Obama.
Link to the full report here (PDF)
9:45 AM PT: I just noticed from the cross-tabs that 45% of the respondents identified themselves as Democrats, with only 33% as Republicans and 21% as Independents/Others. Does this actually match NC registration numbers? That seems like an awful big spread in favor of Dems, which could be why PPP seems to have Obama consistently doing better in NC than other polling firms (which have Romney up 1-5 points). Thoughts from fellow Kossacks?