Denial is not just a river in Egypt, as they say. In the conservo-echo chamber, Romney's International Adventure was a great success even if the liberal media wanted to say otherwise. And Harry Reid's accusation regarding Mitt Romney's taxes was just a sign a desperation within Team Obama, yet another indication that Romney was winning.
But the numbers say otherwise....it's been a bad two weeks for Willard.
If you follow Nate Silver's (number cruncher formerly known as Poblano) forecast at the NYTimes you'll know it's based on polling, history, economic indicators, and more polling. Plus some special sauce. Anyway, every day brings a new percentage likelihood that President Obama will win reelection. Going back to May that number was almost always in the low-to-mid 60s. It got above there briefly in early July until "you didn't build that" fever reached a zenith and the percentage dropped back to 65. That was also the day Romney expressed his concern about London's readiness to host the Olympics. Exactly they kind of thing you'd want to say as you start a foreign trip in...uh...London. Look what's happened with Nate's Obama probabilities since:
July 25: 65% (Romney "concerned" about Olympics, kicks off foreign trip)
July 26: 66.4
July 27: 69.1
July 28: 67.4
July 29: 66.4
July 30: 66.9
July 31: 69.0 (Harry Reid's accusation on Romney's taxes)
Aug. 1: 70.8
Aug. 2: 70.2
Aug. 3. 71.1
Aug. 4: 70.9
Aug. 5: 72.4
Aug. 6: 72.0
Aug. 7: 72.0
Aug. 8: 72.5
Now, there's a lot that goes into Nate's formula, including economic data, but polling is the biggest part and the polls don't look good for Romney right now. For these probability's to move 7.5% in two weeks is big. And even RCP's polling average shows Obama up about 4 percent nationally right now. Without tossups, they have Obama winning 332 electoral votes. Nate's projection is at 302.3. 270 is needed to win.
Let's keep the attacks up and keep Romney busy defending the attacks.
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