We go into pre-convention with the Presidential/VP pair set on both sides, and President Obama solidly ahead. It isn't even as close as the media makes it seem, and over the past month it easily got less close.
For Romney, Ryan changes the dynamics - but not the way he needs to. In fact, looking at this analytically (from the left and with the joy of being in the lead, yes, but analytically nonetheless) this race has crystallized in a similar state we were in 4 years ago. And as today indicates, Romney's problem is still Romney.
For the arguments, follow my below the elegant scribble:
Worst Presidential Nominee Ever
Look, Mitt Romney picked Paul Ryan because his campaign is so incompetent as to have been - so far - unable to make the GOP faithful feel good about him. And this is even with the right-wing media bubble, the hate speech, the birthers, the Tea Party freaks who have an irrational hatred agains President Obama.
OK - WORST. PRESIDENTIAL. NOMINEE. EVER.
Romney has no plan (which means he's stuck with Ryan's until he does). He owns the fact of what Bain did to businesses. He owns the fact that he lied about when he quit the company. And he owns the fact that he clearly has something in multiple years of his income tax returns he doesn't want us to see. His gaffes aren't linguistic (like the last idiot savant) but holistic.
His staff are useless morons that cannot hold to message, and the campaign basically imploded in July (and has kept imploding so far this month). And Romney is supported by a Republican party that is so extreme and so blatantly political that the wheels are off the crazy car.
No Inroads, Anywhere
President Obama has huge leads with the coalition that elected him in 2008: Women, Gay voters, Latinos, African Americans, Jewish-Americans, young people - the 2010-Reconstituted-GOP is an anathema to them. Romney can't connect anyway, and Paul Ryan didn't do a thing to break into those leads.
Risky Pick for Seniors
Paul Ryan wants to scrap Medicare, and Romney cannot run away from that plan. Why? He doesn't have another one. Those angry old white people? That will really piss them off!
The Electoral Map? It's ALL OURS!
Do you think Romney is playing offense or defense. Look at where the ticket's bus tour started and where it's going next. Do you think if he had VA or NC locked down, Romney would be campaigning there?
The Looming Threat of Voter Suppression
It's blatant, it's rediculous, but clearly the Republicans want to win in the worst way, and they are going to try. Vigilance alone is not the answer. As a party, we need to have a plan to try to put a stop to these new Jim Crow laws in each state and another plan to make sure people whatever they need to vote. Let's not let President Obama win 280 electoral votes, but lose Pennsylvania!
Bottom Line
Things look really good for us right now. President Obama is ahead, and Mitt Romney is a terrible candidate running a terrible campaign. Things can change, but right now, we have momentum and the path ahead for the Republicans? Really, really tough.