Okay, so Paul Ryan is the GOP VP candidate. That is a good thing since it puts his budget and ideas as the absolute centerpiece of the entire GOP campaign- from the White House on down.
So, I've been thinking, what the fuck are these idiots thinking? What would actually happen if all their plans went into place? It doesn't take much thought to realize that while the poor and middle class gets screwed first, their own millions would be the last victim.
Some specifics (sort of) after the liberal curly thing.
So its January 2013 and between GOP efforts to keep people from voting and sheer stupidity, America has President Mitt Romney and a Senate and House controlled by the Tea Party.
The take quick action and repeal the ACA and they put the Ryan budget into effect, over the following few weeks, all sorts of other regulation is repealed.
For the wealthy, the results are instant. Their tax burden decreases by a such a significant amount that consumer spending rises. Of course, it is almost all at the upper income levels, the media doesn't report that bit. The White House says, "See, it's working already."
With the health care law thrown into the trash, millions of people suddenly find themselves without out coverage. All the 22 to 26 year olds on their parents coverage go first; the very sick in the gov't sponsored plans go next.
The budget makes massive cuts in aid to states, localities, and college financial aid. Those same states and localities start making cuts for the fall of 2013 to Head Start, school lunch programs, and teacher staffing. Colleges report that fewer students are applying to schools since Pell Grants and college loans have been cut. Colleges also start making cuts in their own research programs since federal money there is being cut.
In the spring of 2013, the GOP springs the Medicare Reform Act and of course, Congress rubber stamps it. Dems in the Senate try to filibuster it, but using reconciliation, the GOP gets around it. Starting in 2020, instead of receiving direct insurance from the gov't, citizens aged 65 or more get to pick from different private health insurance plans. The government will pay for $8000 of the cost. The average price for these plans, in 2013 is $12,000, making them just about a $1000 more per person than what people pay for Medicare gap insurance. What the cost will be in 2020, no one knows.
The Social Security Act is also amended, allowing people to take up to 20% of their contributions and put into private accounts- essentially an IRA.
For most of 2013, things don't change much. The unemployment rate bounces around 8 to 8.5%. Bus then the new school year starts. Tens of thousands of teachers are laid off as federal school aid had been drastically cut. Schools also cut most extracurricular and athletic programs- just too expensive. Unemployment starts to rise, hitting 8.9% in November compounded by the ending of many construction projects funded in part by the Feds. The holiday shopping is far below expectations, and the stock market falls.
Moving into the winter/spring of 2014, people start filing their tax returns. For the very wealthy, it is an absolute windfall. With no capital gain taxes, many are paying next to nothing in taxes. The middle class however, is truly shocked. While their tax rate went down to just 15% (not that much income hit the old 25% level anyway), they find they have almost no deductions. They can only deduct their state and local income and real estate taxes if they pay such taxes. Instead of getting a refund, millions of people find they owe hundreds of dollars because they didn't adjust their withholding on their paychecks. As a result, consumer spending falls, drastically. The economy goes into recession and unemployment by July 2014 is at 10% and rising.
Beyond economics, the GOP social agenda is going into place as well. Reports of illegal abortions are on the rise because the Congress passed laws making not illegal, but almost impossible to get the procedure done. Reports from Canada show a marked rise in the amount of Americans going there for the procedure- the ones that can afford it.
Environmental and worker safety regulation was all but done away with as well. Our use of oil is dropping because so many people are out of work, they aren't using their cars; the alternative energy market is quickly dying because their federal loans and tax credits were done away with, and consumers can't afford the systems. The summer of 2014 is the hottest ever, crops yields all over the US are way down, pushing food prices way up. Inflation- mostly caused by rising food prices, sends other consumer spending down. By September 2014, unemployment is at 11.5% and people are beyond angry.
In the mid-term elections, all the polls show that the Democrats, promising to force President Romney to reverse course, are poised to win back both houses of Congress. Yet, when the elections are over, the GOP is still in control. Sure, they lost some seats, but the incredible difficulty in getting the proper voter ID in so many places was able to insure a GOP win. The Supreme Court, with its six conservative justices, is simply useless in this matter.
As 2015 comes along, the budget deficit is estimated to be $1.7 trillion, unemployment hits 12% in February. There are major protests all over the country. Some states, like New York, are able to do just a little better. They raise their state taxes on the wealthy to provide some services that the Feds used to do, but not to the same extent. GM, Chrysler and Ford announce massive layoffs and losses due to pathetic consumer spending.
Finally, the rich start to pay the price as well. For the first couple of years, they did really well, but now the corporate losses are taking their toll. The Dow Jones- at almost 14,000 soon after the Romney/Ryan win in 2012, is at just 6000 in March of 2015. GM's bankruptcy filing that month caused the index to lose over 1500 points in just two days.
The massive fall off in the US economy has caused a world wide recession or depression. Even China's massive consumer market can't help that country avoid a severe recession.
With the 2016 elections, many Democratically controlled states, (the west coast, the north east, and few others) start changing voter registration practices. They issue free photo ID cards for everyone, issued at age 16. There is a fine if you do not get your card. When you turn 18, you are automatically registered to vote.
In the 2016 elections, sanity finally prevails. A progressive Democrat wins the White House in a landslide, along with a massive Democratic majority in the House. Even the harsh GOP voting rules couldn't keep people from voting. One of the first things the new Congress does, is not only get rid of those rules, but it takes the State ID card idea and makes it national. Now, no one can be denied the right to vote and no one needs to even register- it will all happen automatically.
Over the course of 2017, the entire GOP plan is ripped apart. Privatized Social Security is abolished and the old system in put back in place. Millions of seniors who found themselves destitute with the stock market collapse are given a new lease on life. Medicare is not only put back, it is opened up to all Americans. If you want to buy into the program before you turn 65, you can for just $5000 a year, less if you meet various income levels. Millions take advantage, and by mid 2018, it is the defacto single payer system in the US with 80% of Americans on it.
The tax code is revamped to not only make it more fair, but it is simplified as well. The changes bring in over a trillion dollars year more in government revenue. Government spending picks up, unemployment starts to fall.
With the economy around the world mending quickly, the Democrats pick up even more seats in Congress and more state houses in the 2018 mid-term elections.
While things improve, the damage was immense. In the four years of GOP rule, not one economic statistic got better. Climate change accelerated in the North America because we refused to do anything. Life expectancy, especially among the poor, shrank because of poor access to health care.
Yet, in the long term, the Tea Party got everything they hated. Single payer health insurance, real climate regulation though a tough carbon tax, strict government regulation of banking and Wall Street; immigration reform, and truly universal voting rights, and much higher tax rates on the rich- almost 50%- all dedicated to reducing the almost $25 trillion national debt.
The end.