We've all listed the many ways that the selection of Paul Ryan damages Mitt Romney's campaign. But there's not been enough on another, equally disastrous effect Ryan may have; the drag he likely will be on GOP incumbants in the Congressional races, especially since nearly all of them voted for Ryan's budget multiple times. (To his credit, the President already senses this; witness his attack today in Iowa labeling Ryan as the face of the "do-nothing" GOP House in failing to pass the farm bill.) And if the actions of candidates on both sides is any indication, the Dems are smelling blood and the GOP is running for cover.
Republicans had fair warning. As early as June, both Montana Rep. Danny Rehberg (now running for the Senate) and vulnerable West Virginia Rep. Dave McKinney, both of whom had the foresight to vote against the Ryan budget, were openly running against it and touting their "no" votes. That two conservative Republicans in states not exactly known as liberal bastions as of late would proudly extoll their opposition to Ryan's budget should have been a big red alarm for Republicans everyone.
But they didn't heed it (or at least Romney didn't heed it). And now they're already paying the price. As early as Saturday, Democratic Senate candidats were already pouncing on it, as Tim Kaine, Richard Carmona and Shelly Berkley wasted no time attacking their opponets over Ryan's budget. (Berkley especially has a juicy target, as Dean Heller was stupid enough to vote for the Ryan budget in both houses, first in the House and then again after he was appointed to the Senate.) Meanwhile, numerous Republicans are already trying to run from Ryan as fast as they can, as seen here and here. Even Tea Party stalwart/rich person with nothing better to blow her money on Linda McMahon openly refused to support Ryan's plan to destroy Medicare.
These reactions may be the canary in the coal mine to what we can expect from Republicans during this election cycle. As Politico reports, even Republicans publically supporting Ryan are getting very nervous in private:
But Republicans in and outside of Washington also privately expressed concern that Ryan gives Democrats an all-too-easy way to make the 2012 election about a set of conservative ideas that have faced decidely mixed results at the ballot box. Ryan's wonky appeal may have won over the Beltway, but selling a Meidcare overhaul to voters in, say, Florida, is an altogether different task.
"We might as well have just picked a random Heritage Foundation analyst," said one GOP strategist involved in the 2012 campaign. "The good news is that this ticket now has a vision. The bad news is that vision is basically just a chart of numbers used to justify policies that are extremely unpopular."
Here's another item from Politico and it covers the same ground; Democrats are on the attack and Republicans are running for cover, save for some diehards who are embracing their votes and praising Ryan (including deeply embattled ones like Anne Marie Burkle and our favorite unhinged lunatic Allen West). Indeed, DCCC Chairman Steve Israel seemed almost giddy about it:
"I was shocked," Israel said of the Ryan announcement. "I was secretly hoping they would pick Ryan. With all the polling on his budget, I didn't think they would make my hopes come true."
And:
"The Ryan budget is a debate we win, and Mitt Romney just nationalized the debate," Israel added.
Indeed. Which explains the joy on the Democratic side and the palpable fear on the Republican side. Batten down the hatches, GOP. It's only going to get worse from here.