Any union contractor knows that a weak foundation will cause a building to fall. The same can be said for a political campaign. Serious cracks have been evident for months in the foundations of two of the campaigns for the DFL endorsement for 8th district congress, and both are now teetering on the brink of collapse. Indeed, it is puzzling to see many characterize this race as a toss-up. The evidence suggests that neither former City Councilor Jeff Anderson nor former State Sen. Tarryl Clark have been successful in shoring up their position with voters, and that former U.S. Rep. Rick Nolan has both the strong grass roots support throughout the district and the momentum going into Tuesday’s primary election.
The behavior of both Jeff Anderson and Tarryl Clark supports this analysis. While Nolan has run a positive campaign focused on making the case that he is the most qualified to serve and has the best chance to defeat Cravaack, Anderson and Clark have gone negative, attacking Nolan and beloved Iron Range icons such as Jim Oberstar and Rudy Perpich in the process. Such acts of desperation are the hallmark of failing campaigns, the political equivalent of the ‘Hail Mary’ pass.
Nolan made a conscious decision early in the race to concentrate on building a traditional boots-on-the-ground campaign instead of on fundraising. Although it caused some casual observers to question his ability to raise money, it is a strategy that has served him well in creating a strong foundation for what has undeniably been a very successful campaign.
As a result of Nolan’s highly effective ground game, the race is not competitive in the bulk of the district (south and west) where there is overwhelming and solid support for Nolan.
Indeed, Anderson did not do well in the southern or western parts of the 8th during the early months of his campaign, hence his decision to focus exclusively on the northeast section of the district. His support is primarily in Duluth and, to a much lesser extent, on the Iron Range, along with a small pocket of support in Grand Rapids in Itasca County. What little support the carpetbagging Clark has is largely centered in the southern counties near the metro and in Duluth, with only scattered pockets on the Range and along the North Shore.
The only competitive race is in the northeast, with the focus on St Louis County. But even that should be put in perspective. Anderson built his entire campaign on his roots on the Iron Range and his connections in Duluth, a strategy better suited to the 8th district of the 1970′s than the 8th district of the 21st century.
In order for Anderson’s strategy to be successful, two things need to happen: First, there must be a massive voter turn out in Duluth and across the Mesabi Iron Range. Second, and this is the critical piece, Anderson has to garner the same kind of outpouring of support awarded to Iron Range icons Jim Oberstar and Rudy Perpich. People have to love him. People have to want to walk over hot coals for him. People have to be passionate about his candidacy. There is simply no evidence that Anderson has achieved that status. He tried to inspire this passion by making the race a referendum on mining, but his attempt to invoke fear regarding the future of mining by making erroneous claims about Nolan has fallen flat in the face of numerous endorsements of the Cuyuna Range native from many key Iron Rangers, including that of former Congressman Jim Oberstar.
Anderson also alienated much of his potential base by dismissing Jim Oberstar as an ‘irrelevant old guy’, and compounded the problem by claiming to be more qualified to run for Congress than Oberstar was in 1974. Remember the demographics of the Range: older voters are more consistent primary voters than their younger counterparts and are likely to take a dim view of Anderson’s repeated shots about Nolan’s age and downright disrespectful attitude towards Oberstar. In addition, memories of the Steel Trust and mining-related ailments such as mesothelioma are still fresh in the minds of these voters. Nolan’s position of fully supporting mining but holding the mining companies’ feet to the fire to ensure they follow regulations that protect the health and safety of workers as well as our land and water is likely to resonate more with them than Anderson’s ‘company man’ line. They love mining but know that we can’t trust the mining companies. It’s a nuance that Anderson still doesn’t understand.
The biggest mystery in the race is why Tarryl Clark is running for Congress in the 8th district. Her claim that she works in Duluth doesn’t make sense; her employer, the Blue-Green Alliance, does not have an office in Duluth, and the only work numbers available for Clark are the 612 landline and her 320 cell phone. Clark’s credibility took an even more serious dive once people realized that the public record doesn’t support her claims that she purchased a home in Duluth, nor that she actually lives and votes there. And Clark’s decision to force a primary when it became obvious she had no chance to win the endorsement and her negative campaign tactics have angered those who might otherwise have supported her – party activists, women and senior citizens.
On the Iron Range, much has been made of Clark’s endorsement by the United Steelworkers, but this does not indicate as much support as it might otherwise suggest. The locals did not endorse anyone in the race, and for the first time in history, the Steelworkers Organization of Active Retirees (SOAR) broke with the District in making an endorsement, opting instead to unanimously endorse Rick Nolan. Her recent attack directed towards Nolan and Perpich was not only desperate but incredibly stupid and drove even more support towards Nolan.
The Clark campaign was driven solely by outside money and never gained traction in the district. And much of her budget was dedicated to feeding her massive fundraising machine. But Clark was very successful in fooling many outside the district and Minnesota into thinking otherwise.
Tarryl Clark’s strategy to focus on raising outside money and spending outside money to blanket the district with media and Jeff Anderson’s strategy to ignore the majority of the district in favor of a very parochial campaign in the northeast were equally ineffective in winning the level of support needed to win the primary. Rather than deciding the winner as some have suggested, St Louis County will simply determine Nolan’s margin of victory.
Former Congressman Rick Nolan has done nothing but win since he launched his campaign last summer. Nolan won every straw poll in the race, won all 18 county unit conventions on caucus night, won the DFL endorsement by an overwhelming margin, won rare personal endorsements from leaders of all three labor councils in northeastern Minnesota, won numerous union endorsements, won endorsements from 80% of current and former 8th district legislators, and won endorsements from the entire Congressional Delegation, both U.S. senators, the governor and lt. governor, former US Sen. and Vice-President Walter Mondale and former US Rep Oberstar, the plum endorsement in the race. The numerous endorsements from community leaders and activists are indicative of the strong support Nolan has built with democrats throughout the district and of the excitement his campaign to make the middle class matter again has generated in northern Minnesota.
This race is anything but a toss-up. But here the old saying, ‘the world belongs to those who show up’, takes on added significance. Nolan’s supporters must turn out at the polls to make this a reality.
The election is theirs for the taking.
Cross posted at Iron Country Free Press