A Suffolk University and USA Today Poll reports that unlikely and unregistered votes favor President Obama by sizable margins, but don't plan to vote because they are too busy, or figure it doesn't matter because he will win anyway.
... according to a survey released Wednesday by Suffolk University and USA Today. Unregistered voters favored Obama over Romney by 43 percent to 14 percent, with 23 percent saying they would prefer a third-party candidate. Among unlikely voters, Obama led Romney by 43 percent to 20 percent, with 18 percent preferring a third-party candidate.
While most polls try to screen out Americans who aren't likely to cast a ballot, the Suffolk poll asked them why they weren't planning to, finding that most felt they were too busy or that their votes didn't matter.
"Ironically, both the Obama and Romney campaigns want to tout likely-voter polls showing their respective candidates leading by wide margins," David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, said in a statement. "But for these non-voters, this assertion has the opposite effect from what the campaigns want. If these people think you're going to win anyway, that's one more reason in a long list of reasons why they'll stay home in November."
In 2008, about 80 million Americans, or 38 percent of eligible voters, didn't turn out to vote. The rate of non-voters could be even higher this year, according to Suffolk University. With few likely voters -- possibly less than 10 percent -- still undecided, turning out unlikely voters could become an increased priority for the Obama campaign. Republicans are significantly more likely than Democrats to say they are paying attention to the election.
While, it may seem appealing to target this group for registration, and GOTV efforts, we need a better understanding of the sub-groups represented in these surveys. More than 60% of those surveyed did not even know who the Vice President was. These might be difficult groups to reach, with low return on investment, if they do not care enough to show up on election day. Some, others, may just be distracted, disorganized, or amenable to "conversion."
I wonder how many of these folks we spend time trying to register, still do not bother to show up? Perhaps, the group that favors Democrats, but figure we will win anyway can be be convinced that it is still important for down-ticket races, and a margin for a mandate, or even that our success is far from assured?
1:07 PM PT: To Donate to President Obama's campaign, or find out how to get involved in your area please visit the official website at
http://www.barackobama.com/