The
Griswold Singiser Family road trip is finally in the books, and that means it is time to crank up that data machine yet again.
Mitt Romney got several polls in key states over the past two days that looked, quite frankly, too good to be true in some cases. But any buoyant celebration has to be stunted by the fact that all of those good polls were B.A. (Before Akin).
The same could be said for a raft of Senate polls, to say nothing of GOP internal polls in House races over the past couple of days, all of which looked, on balance, really good for the GOP.
As for Akin himself, the polling picture for the GOP standard-bearer (snicker, snicker) in Missouri is infinitely more complicated.
And, with that, on to the numbers:
PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney d. Obama (47-45)
NATIONAL (NBC/Wall Street Journal): Obama d. Romney (48-44)
NATIONAL (PPP for Daily Kos/SEIU): Obama d. Romney (49-45)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (45-44)
NATIONAL (SurveyUSA/Braun for Monmouth University): Obama d. Romney (45-41)
FLORIDA (Foster McCollum White/Baydoun): Romney d. Obama (54-40)
MICHIGAN (Foster McCollum White/Baydoun): Romney d. Obama (48-44)
NEW YORK (Siena College): Obama d. Romney (62-33)
OKLAHOMA (Sooner Poll): Romney d. Obama (58-29)
VIRGINIA (PPP): Obama d. Romney (50-45); Obama d. Romney and Virgil Goode (50-42-4)
WISCONSIN (PPP): Romney d. Obama (48-47)
DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
CA-41 (EMC Research for Takano): Mark Takano (D) 42, John Tavaglione (R) 38
CO-07 (OnMessage for the Coors campaign): Joseph Coors (R) 45, Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D) 36
FL-SEN (Foster McCollum White/Baydoun): Connie Mack IV (R) 51, Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 43
IL-17 (Public Opinion Strategies for the Schilling campaign): Rep. Bobby Schilling (R) 50, Cheri Bustos (D) 37
MA-SEN (PPP): Sen. Scott Brown (R) 49, Elizabeth Warren (D) 44
MI-SEN (Foster McCollum White/Baydoun): Pete Hoekstra (R) 48, Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 46
MO-SEN (PPP): Todd Akin (R) 44, Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 43
MT-SEN (Rasmussen): Denny Rehberg (R) 47, Sen. Jon Tester (D) 43
NV-04 (Public Opinion Strategies for The American Action Network): Danny Tarkanian (R) 46, Steven Horsford (D) 35
NY-SEN (Siena College): Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 65, Wendy Long (R) 22
NY-27 (Siena College): Chris Collins (R) 47, Rep. Kathy Hochul (D) 45
A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump...
Time will tell, of course, if the firestorm that has accompanied Todd Akin's televised implosion/interview will have real consequences not just for his campaign, but for Republicans across the board. That story, coupled with the more amusing tales of drunken skinny dipping in the Sea of Galilee (where I wonder if Kevin Yoder said "Check out my ass—this is a holy site"), have not exactly burnished the GOP brand name over the past 48 hours. Of course, virtually all of these polls (PPP's poll in Mizzou is, as far as I can tell, the sole exception) were in the field before the Akin/Galilee stories broke.
As it happens, even the post-Akin polling, scant as it may be, doesn't provide a great roadmap. The PPP poll, a one-night sample released last night, showed Akin surviving the hit, with a lead of just a single point over incumbent Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill.
Now, in no way should that lead people to conclude that he is out of the woods. For one thing, the sample was one that the GOP would absolutely kill for come November—one that was even more red-leaning than the 2010 exit polls would indicate. For another, Akin's favorables in the poll, even as he was locked in a dead heat, were just awful, with his negatives more than doubling up his favorables. Lastly, this was a sample conducted less than 24 hours after his interview became a story. With a few more days to percolate (and for him to dig deeper, as he has so obligingly done today), it is hard to conceive that his numbers will improve.
And, indeed, if you prefer to buy stock in SurveyUSA, his numbers may already begun to crater. Their own snap poll of the race, taken yesterday, had 54 percent of Missouri voters saying Akin should abandon the race, with only 35 percent saying he should stay in. In an annoying decision, SUSA appears not to have conducted any head-to-heads, but with that kind of gap on that "in vs. out" question, it is hard to believe that SUSA's sample would put Akin in the lead over McCaskill.
The question now, beyond what happens in this pivotal race for the balance of power in the U.S. Senate, is whether Republicans take a hit elsewhere. And, by any objective standard, Monday and Tuesday have to be considered the best two polling days that Republicans have seen in a very, very long time. Four different polls put Democratic incumbents behind their GOP counterparts, and also put the most vulnerable Republican incumbent (Scott Brown) out in front by five points. Also, a trio of House internal polls give Republicans leads in two Democratic districts (CO-07, unbelievably, as well as the nominally Democratic new district in NV-04), and a wide lead in what has long been perceived as a flippable GOP-held seat in Illinois.
If, by the end of this week, Democrats start to look comparably better, they may well have Todd Akin to thank. And not just for changing the state of the race in the progressively less progressive state of Missouri.
In other polling news...
- Their track record on the primaries in Michigan was pretty solid, but there can be no doubt that the polling crew at Foster McCollum White (along with Baydoun Consulting) raised more than a couple of eyebrows with their numbers released this week. Giving Mitt Romney a narrow lead in Michigan is a surprise, but giving Pete Hoesktra a lead over Debbie Stabenow was the real head-scratcher. And while there have been pollsters giving the GOP an edge in Florida, a fourteen-point Romney lead, to say nothing of an eight-point lead for Connie Mack IV, is a real "WTF" data point.
- For those who think that state legislative races are every bit as important as the federal ones, there was a surge of polling data emanating from the Silver State of Nevada. The state is not only considered something of a swing state for the presidential election, it also has a dead heat Senate race and a pair of legitimately competitive House races. It is also home to a huge showdown for control of the state Senate, where the Democrats are nursing the narrowest of majorities. In the past week, a total of eight polls have come from the tossup races in the state. Click the link for all the details.
- Interestingly, while there have been a handful of state polls detailing some movement towards the GOP in the presidential showdown (the FMW/B polls are the most audacious examples, but not the only ones), the three non-tracking national polls released this week have all been in alignment, with Barack Obama up four on Mitt Romney. That is little changed from the previous weeks, and defies any notion that the selection of Paul Ryan as the GOP nominee-designate for the vice presidency has yielded a tangible bounce for the Republican ticket. The trackers have scarcely moved, as well (Gallup hasn't moved, even a point, in the past week), though they show Romney doing better than the non-trackers, as they have done more or less throughout the campaign.