Well here's a nice little poll on the Missouri Senate race from our "friends" over at Rasmussen:
Claire McCaskill: 48
Todd Akin: 38
This poll was taken yesterday, August 22. Here's a link to RCP where the poll is listed. The Rasmussen report is apparently subscriber only.
UPDATE: Rasmussen has now posted their story on the poll.
More details on question wording and favorable/unfavorable for Akin and McCaskill at this link.
7:48 AM PT: If you question the veracity the poll:
1. You could be right, some evidence suggests Rasmussen likes to drive narratives more than measure things objectively.
UPDATE 1A. If Rasmussen is fudging, they are also simultaneously pushing the meme (to media and pundits and voters) that extreme right wing views on abortion are politically toxic. And since Akin and Ryan or so closely linked on abortion they are pushing the idea that this is a problem for Romney/Ryan. Which means it will continue to be asked about, it will come up in debates, and it's definitely not the ground Republicans want to be fighting this election on.
2. Akin seems to live in a bubble. Not sure one poll, still with McCaskill under 50 and 14% undecided/don't know, would really influence him.
3. It will be harder for him to drop out now (past the Tuesday deadline) and hard for the party to pick somebody else in a legitimate way.
4. Any new candidate would be tainted by the process and have about 9 weeks to mount a campaign.
9:28 AM PT: Here are some details on how long Akin has to decide. I think he'll want more polling at the very least:
"Technically, the latest Akin could secure the order is Sept. 25. But realistically, he would have to get the ball rolling a lot sooner, probably by mid-September at the latest. That’s because Missouri requires candidates who withdraw to pay the tab for reprinting ballots that already have hit the presses. So the longer he waits, the higher those costs would be.....
....Several Missouri county officials said they planned to hold off printing ballots as long as possible — until at least mid-month — to see what Akin does.
Another key deadline is Sept. 21. Election officials must send military ballots by Sept. 22, and if Akin hasn’t dropped by that point, his name will remain on those ballots no matter what.....
the decision on whom to run in Akin’s stead would be up to the 68 members of the Missouri State Republican Committee. There are two committee members for each of the 34 state Senate districts — a man and a woman for each area. Any candidate wishing to run would come before the 68 deciders and make their case."
That excerpt is from: