If you recall, my predictions for 2012, made in December 2011, were as follows - you can get the reasoning behind each one at the original diary. They are:
- Barack Obama will be re-elected to a second term as President.
- John Boehner will be ousted as Speaker of the House.
- Democrats will just barely hold on to the US Senate
- The US unemployment rate will dip below 8%.
- The European Union will hold on .. barely.
- Inflation will remain below 10%.
- Protest movements in the US, Russia, Europe and MENA will accelerate.
- The US will substantially reduce its troop presence in Afghanistan.
- Oregon will win the Rose Bowl.
So, where are we at? Follow me past the orange noodle for my thoughts.
- Barack Obama will be re-elected to a second term as President. 70%
I'm not sure that President Obama has destroyed the Republican brand like I predicted, but by the same token, the Republicans, pre-convention, did a really piss poor job of making the case that they should replace Obama. It's axiomatic to them that Obama is an utter failure, but this is an open question to everyone else. Nate Silver's latest simulation (of 8/30/12) gives Obama a 71.6% chance of winning; let's call this two-thirds. Pretty much every electoral college estimate gives Obama the advantage, if not an outright win. If things continue the way they are, the smart money is that Obama will win in November. Mitt Romney has four chances to change the dynamics. One of those chances was this week's convention, and I think he put in a solid effort there. That said, if Romney's not leading next week, he's in trouble.
- John Boehner will be ousted as Speaker of the House. 25%
In fact, Boehner's saving grace might just be the Democratic Party. It looks likely that Democrats will win some seats back from Tea Party idiots like Allen West. However, while the Democrats are in striking distance of winning a majority in the House, it looks unlikely that they'll be able to pull it off. If the Republicans manage to hold on to the House with a weaker Tea Party, then Boehner's own hand will be considerably stronger in 2013.
- Democrats will just barely hold on to the US Senate 40%
I overestimated Elizabeth Warren's chances in Massachusetts, unfortunately, but Claire McCaskill has made up for that by drawing a complete idiot (Todd Akin) for an opponent. If Akin stays in the race, Democratic control of the US Senate will look better. To maintain control, Democrats are going to have to work harder in closer races - Nevada, Montana, Arizona, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia and Connecticut. That's going to take a lot more effort than I see them putting in now.
- The US unemployment rate will dip below 8%. 50%
The U3 rate is currently at 8.2%. There's a substantial chance that the oil choke collar is re-engaging now and will slow the economy down. If that doesn't happen, I think we'll see unemployment drop to 7.9% by October.
- Inflation will remain below 10%. 100%
Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, never cracked 4%. It's currently below 1.5%.
- The European Union will hold on .. barely. 100%
The trouble in Greece have not had a substantial impact on the rest of the EU economy, despite the political turmoil we've seen this year. The EU will continue for the time being.
- Protest movements in the US, Russia, Europe and MENA will accelerate. 100%, but only partially.
Occupy Wall Street, for the most part, has fizzled down, although one can give them credit for changing the conversation. MENA's various movements have accelerated in some places, most notably Syria, but have turned into disappointment for the revolutionaries as the religious right won in Egypt. In Europe the anti-austerity movement has lost momentum as reality set into Greek electoral politics. In Russia, Putin's continued crackdown has managed to yield an international embarrassment in the form of Pussy Riot, but Putin continues to be wildly popular.
- The US will substantially reduce its troop presence in Afghanistan. 80%
The plan is to pull out 33,000 troops by October. We'll know better then whether this happened.
- Oregon will win the Rose Bowl. 100%
Man, that was fun. The Ducks season starts again tomorrow night at 7:30 Pacific. Go Ducks!