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Leading Off:

NY-11: Whether you've been following the saga of Republican freshman Mike Grimm closely, or whether you only have a vague sense of the details of the fundraising scandal he's caught up in, I strongly encourage you to click through and read this AP story in its entirety. The article not only digs into some details which I don't believe have come to light previously, but it also places all the key players into context and gives the best summation of the entire sordid affair I've yet seen.

On the "new stuff" front, it turns out that several major Grimm contributors (including some who may have given more than the legal limit) are in the porn distribution business—and, weirdly, these people all got hooked in with Grimm because of their association with Rabbi Yoshiyahu Yosef Pinto. Strange company, right? Pinto, if you aren't familiar with him, is the guy who says he and his congregants were coerced into donating by Grimm and ripped off by the aide who facilitated the connection, the recently-arrested Ofer Biton.

But it turns out that Pinto himself (who, according to reports, has been interviewed many times by the FBI) is hardly some naïve, humble rabbi who let himself get taken advantage of by a once-trusted employee. In fact, Pinto (who divides his time between the US and Israel) was recently rated by Forbes as Israel's seventh-richest rabbi and has been linked to or accused of other sketchy business dealings himself. Again, though, you're going to want to read the full thing.


FL-Sen: PPP's new Florida poll, conducted just after the Republican National Convention wrapped up, shows Dem Sen. Bill Nelson improving his standing for re-election. He now leads GOP Rep. Connie Mack 45-38, a considerably wider spread than his narrow 45-43 edge in late July. As always, Nelson's job approvals are pretty mediocre (35-42), but Mack's favorables now suck more than ever (27-45, down from 25-35), and he hasn't even borne the full brunt of the Democratic attack machine yet. Interestingly, the same sample put Obama up over Romney 48-47, same as PPP's last poll, so not only was there no convention bounce, it looks like the negative ads against Mack have started working.

MI-Sen: PPP's first likely voter poll of Michigan has Dem Sen. Debbie Stabenow leading GOPer Pete Hoekstra by a 50-41 margin, somewhat tighter than their last poll in July, which had the incumbent up 52-38 using a registered voter model. Still, those are good numbers for Stabenow and they're also in line with what other firms have been saying lately (as long as those firms are not named Mitchell Research or FMWB). PPP also saw Obama's margin get halved, falling to 51-44 from 53-39.

In addition, there are fresh numbers on three Michigan ballot measures, though they are little changed from PPP's prior survey (click through for the numbers). The generic legislative ballot has also gotten closer, with Democrats' earlier 45-37 lead shrinking to 45-41. Also, Dem Sen. Carl Levin, who is up for re-election in 2014, beats Generic R 51-40, while GOP Gov. Rick Snyder edges Generic D 46-41.

VA-Sen: Is George Allen in a spot of trouble? The Republican Senate hopeful cancelled an ad buy planned for this week, with a campaign spokesman scrambling to explain that there are "constant adjustments being made to our ad schedule." This reminds me of something I know I've mentioned before: the German radio broadcasts my father would listen to in occupied Poland toward the end of the war, which would always claim troops were engaged in "strategic redeployments"—code for "retreat." Democrats seem to have the more plausible explanation, namely that Allen's weaker fundraising is forcing him to go dark for two weeks. Meanwhile, Tim Kaine has been on the air continuously.


AZ-Sen: Though he's of Puerto Rican descent and has a pretty Hispanic surname, Democrat Richard Carmona's Spanish accent sounds pretty rough, even to my Anglo ears, in this general bio spot.

CT-Sen: Republican Linda McMahon goes after the automatic defense "sequestration" that was part of last year's debt ceiling negotiations, claiming the cuts would hurt Connecticut jobs and blaming Chris Murphy.

ME-Sen: Republican Charlie Summers introduces himself in his first ad, with the narrator talking about his efforts to help small businesses and "prevent texting while driving." Note the clip at about 16 seconds in actually appears to show someone texting while driving. The only real partisan note is that Summers promises to "repeal Obamacare."

MT-Sen: Republican Denny Rehberg uses a pair of goofy-sounding twins who can't stop bobbing their heads to recite a list of supposed likenesses between Dem Sen. Jon Tester and Barack Obama. "They may not be twins, but they might as well be!" Guffaw. Meanwhile, AFSCME hammers Rehberg for supporting Social Security privatization, an issue that hasn't come up a lot in campaign ads this year. And finally, it looks like the DSCC may have a new anti-Rehberg ad coming down the pike, backed by a $170K buy (either that or it's a re-up of an existing ad run).

ND-Sen: Majority PAC compares Republican Rick Berg to an obedient dog, saying he's on a "short leash" with GOP elders and does whatever they tell him to. Cute pooch.

NJ-Sen: Joe Kyrillos's wife says he's a "different kind of Republican" because he "fought to preserve our beaches and environment" and cares about victims of domestic violence.

NV-Sen: Republican Dean Heller has three new ads. The first attacks Shelley Berkley for voting to cut "$1 trillion" from Medicare, which is the highest figure I've ever seen phonied up. The second is very similar and adds some "rationing" lies. It also features extremely wooden actors who sound like they recorded the spot inside a cavern. The third, meanwhile, revisits Berkley's alleged ethical issues, though it studiously avoids mentioning the crucial underpinnings (her efforts to save the state's lone kidney transplant center, which Heller supported).

OH-Sen: Dem Sen. Sherrod Brown touts his work on legislation that levels sanctions against China for unfair trade practices, mostly using news clips. Meanwhile, Republican Josh Mandel gets a couple of guys who served with him in the military to praise him, with one even saying Mandel is "not a politician." Amusing, since Mandel has held elective office since 2003—and at just 34, that constitutes the vast majority of his adult life.


FL-Gov: With Charlie Crist's conversion to the Democratic Party almost complete, PPP tested him against GOP Gov. Rick Scott once again, finding Crist up 45-42. That's the same as Generic D, which isn't too surprising seeing as Crist has now lost much of his crossover appeal: A little over a month ago, his favorability rating with Republicans was 34-39; now it's 24-60. Despite that drop, Crist's head-to-heads with Scott are basically unchanged from late July, when he led 44-41.

The generic congressional ballot is also still tight, with Democrats up 44-43. The last time PPP asked this question, back in June, Dems held a similar 46-44 edge. Obviously individual district lines and candidate quality tend to play bigger roles in terms of who gets elected to the House, but seeing as Dems hold just six out of Florida's 25 current congressional seats (not counting the state's two new districts), numbers like these are positive for Team Blue.

Meanwhile, the Republican Party of Florida is also doing their best to poison Crist among Democrats, airing this new ad on MSNBC that features a host of clips of Crist talking favorably about other Republicans like Bush and calling himself "about as conservative as you can get." I suspect there's very little money behind this buy, though.

NC-Gov: Two of the three presidential polls of North Carolina that popped up on Monday have gubernatorial portions, one bad for Dem Walter Dalton and one even worse. The PPP sample that found the state tied at the presidential level gives GOPer Pat McCrory a 6-point lead, 45-39, with Libertarian Barbara Howe pulling in 5. McCrory is getting propped up with a fair amount of crossover vote (19% of the Dems), but Dalton's best hope here is that the large part of the undecideds skew Democratic (60% are Dems, 18% are Republicans). PPP also finds narrow leads for three Dems in downballot statewide races and on the generic legislative ballot.

The Elon University poll (PDF), on behalf of the Charlotte Observer, finds an even wider spread for McCrory: 52 to 37. This sample, which gave Mitt Romney a 47-43 lead atop the ticket, has drawn some heat for being overly white, but even making an adjustment for that isn't going to put Dalton into winning position. (The third NC poll that came out Monday, from SurveyUSA (PDF), didn't include gov numbers.)

Meanwhile, McCrory's newest TV spot features a pair of regular folks talking about the economy, with one complaining that more than 400,000 North Carolinians are "out of work right now." Her lunch companion uncharmingly responds: "That's more than the populations of Asheville, Shelby, Burlington, Chapel Hill, Jacksonville, and Wilmington combined." I half-expected him to follow up with "Wednesday is fish sticks," but instead he says, "Pass the barbecue sauce." For real. (David Jarman & David Nir)


CO-07: So what's going in on Colorado's 7th? The House Majority PAC just announced that it's spending a hefty $500K on a two-week ad buy attacking Republican Joe Coors for supporting a so-called "personhood" amendment to the state's constitution. (I'm not sure I was supposed to snort with laughter when the narrator, using a clip from an earlier Coors spot where he explained he was "not a beer" intones: "But his views on women? More like a big old can of Extreme!") But I'm surprised to see an outside group spending so much on Dem Rep. Ed Perlmutter's behalf so early, given that Obama won this seat by 16 points, and Perlmutter defeated a highly-touted challenger last cycle by a 53-42 spread.

Coors did release a poll last month that had him up 45-36 over the incumbent, but aside from impossible-to-believe polls, what he does have is a ton of money. Thanks to his personal wealth, he's already spent a monster $700K on TV time and has another $1.8 million reserved, according to Scott Bland at The Hotline. Bland also reports that "[p]rivate Democratic polling doesn't show that dire a situation for Perlmutter, but the race is competitive." So this is probably a situation where HMP is looking to shore up Perlmutter early by driving up Coors's negatives, rather than some kind of red alert.

Coors, incidentally, is out with his third ad, in which he tries to prove he's not like the rest of this party because he bets "you don't know many Republicans who drive hybrid cars."

MD-06: Looks like GOP Rep. Roscoe Bartlett just channeled the spirit of Todd Akin:

"Oh, life of the mother—exception of life of the mother, rape and incest. Yeah, I've always—that's a mantra, you know, I've said it so often it just spills out," he said. "If you really—there are very few pregnancies as a result of rape, fortunately, and incest—compared to the usual abortion, what is the percentage of abortions for rape? It is tiny. It is a tiny, tiny percentage."

CA-10: In his first ad, Democrat Jose Hernandez says "I'm not a politician—I'm an astronaut and engineer," as a young boy launches a model rocket with a space shuttle on its back skyward.

CA-26: A narrator talks about Democrat Julia Brownley's commitment to women and her support from Planned Parenthood in her first TV ad of the general election. Size of the buy: $56K.

CO-06: As a narrator describes Republican Mike Coffman's military service record, Coffman says he learned to "always love your country."

FL-18: Democrat Patrick Murphy introduces himself as an accountant: "I know what you're thinking: accounting—boring, right? Well, maybe Washington needs a little more boring right now." That's an obvious contrast with his opponent, the incendiary Allen West.

GA-12: Rep. John Barrow tries as hard as he can to distance himself from the Democratic Party, more strenuously than I've seen anyone else attempt so far this cycle. The narrator says Barrow opposed Obamacare and has voted with Eric Cantor 54% of the time.

IA-02: Dem Rep. Bruce Braley discusses his father's participation in the Battle of Iwo Jima, then the narrator segues into Braley's efforts to help veterans find jobs.

IA-03: Dem Rep. Leonard Boswell hits GOP Rep. Tom Latham for opposing the bailout but for benefitting from a $2.4 million loan that his family-owned bank received from TARP. Meanwhile, Patriot Majority USA links Latham to Republican plans to end Medicare and give tax breaks to millionaires.

IA-04: Have to admit I cringed watching Democrat Christie Vilsack compare the seven-layer salads she brings to potlucks with creating "layers of economic opportunity to rebuild our middle class." Gotta remind myself that I'm not the target audience for this ad.

IL-10: In his first ad, Democrat Brad Schneider promises that he's a "no nonsense" kind of guy who will help stop the "bickering" and "gridlock" in Washington.

IL-17: In his first spot of the cycle, GOP freshman Bobby Schilling demonstrates why minute-long ads usually aren't a good idea, meandering from a discussion about building a pizza place with his dad to a long discourse on jobs.

KY-06: On behalf of Dem Rep. Ben Chandler, a pretty authentic-sounding Republican constituent lambastes GOPer Andy Barr for trying to "change the rules in the middle of the game" by supporting the Ryan plan.

MI-01: Accompanied by some good farmland visuals, Democrat Gary McDowell criticizes both parties and says "Washington could learn a thing or two from a hay farmer" like himself.

NE-02: GOP Rep. Lee Terry goes compare-and-contrast, touting his supposed efforts to cut spending and attacking Democrat John Ewing for supporting the Affordable Care Act. I find it interesting that Terry's attacking Ewing at all, which suggests the race might be more competitive than many think.

NM-01: Republican Janice Arnold-Jones has a pair of new ads. In the first, she does the basic introductory bio stuff. In the second, she goes as anodyne as possible with stock footage and empty sloganeering.

NJ-03: Democrat Shelley Adler wonders why Washington can't be more like her household, where she "had to do it all, and on a budget" as a mom of four boys.

NY-01: Dem Rep. Tim Bishop pushes directly back at Randy Altschuler, calling him out by name as "despicable" for saying Bishop "is a criminal," a reference to this ad. Bishop addresses the camera directly, saying that he's helped "thousands of constituents." His delivery is solid.

NY-21: Dem Rep. Bill Owens says he has "no words" for "stupid regulations" that affect farmers, like EPA dust rules.

NY-24: Dan Maffei hammers GOP Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle with a clip of her saying she wants to "abolish" the Department of Education.

NY-27: Dem Rep. Kathy Hochul touts her support for a balanced budget amendment, taking pains to point out that President Obama opposes the idea.

OH-07: Democrat Joyce Healy-Abrams goes on the air with her first ad, a biographical spot, touting her business credentials.

PA-06: In his first ad, Democrat Manan Trivedi contrasts his service as a military surgeon in Iraq with GOP Rep. Jim Gerlach's "two taxpayer-funded pensions" which he allegedly voted to increase "by 50%."

PA-12: Republican Keith Rothfus goes the "faux melodramatic announcer" route, criticizing Obama for playing "over 100 rounds of golf" while Rothfus "has played one round... of miniature golf!" Some generic attacks (debt, big government, etc.) on Obama and Rep. Mark Critz follow.

VA-02: The House Majority PAC isn't just playing defense (see CO-07 item above)—they're also going on offense, and their target is freshman Rep. Scott Rigell, a guy not often found at the top of takeover target lists. Their new ad (backed by a $140K, two-week buy) shows a Rigell stand-in experiencing a vehicular break-down and blocking up a line of traffic, to symbolize the middle class tax cuts he's voted against.

SD-AL: Democrat Matt Varilek is out with his first ad (noticing a lot of these, post-Labor Day?), an introductory spot in which he mentions his work for Sen. Tim Johnson "on economic development." I'm guessing Johnson must either poll well, since few challengers like to link themselves to DC, or if Varilek (a former congressional staffer) is just trying to get out ahead of GOP attempts to define him.

WI-07, KY-06, PA-12: I don't think anyone makes finding their ads more difficult than the NRCC, though Scott Bland's done a good job of rounding up their trio of new spots at the link. Republicans are adding a new target to their list: WI-07's Pat Kreitlow, who was the beneficiary of an unexpected early DCCC attack on GOP freshman Sean Duffy last week, and whom they slam as a tax raiser.

In the other two races, they keep up with existing themes: They go after Mark Critz in PA-12 for voting against various Obamacare repeal efforts, and Ben Chandler in KY-06 for supporting Obama more generally, with clips of Chandler saying stuff like "I have supported the President right along." The size of the buys for all of these spots, as well as continuations of some existing buys in other races, are available here.

Other Races:

PA-St. Sen: One nice thing we've been seeing more of this cycle than previous cycles is more publicly-released internal polls of key state legislative races, and here's a big one. It's in the Erie-based SD-49 in Pennsylvania's State Senate, an open seat that's the bluest seat held by a Republican in the entire chamber, and thus the Dems' best pickup opportunity. The month-old poll (by 39th St. Strategies) gives Dem Sean Wiley a wide lead over GOPer Janet Anderson, 51-33. You might recall that last week the same pollster also found a large lead for the Dem candidate in the GOP-held open seat in SD-37; if the Dems can pick up those two, that'll narrow the Republican edge in the Senate from 30-20 to 28-22. (David Jarman)

Grab Bag:

Ads: Want to stay on top of all the ads coming out of all the key campaigns and third-party groups as we head into crunch-time? With some help from the community, I've compiled a list of YouTube accounts for pretty much every House, Senate, and gubernatorial campaign that matters (though we're still awaiting primary results in a few states), as well as links for several of the biggest outside spending organizations, too. And if you want all of these assembled in a nice tidy RSS feed, click here.

Colorado: There's no Gov or Sen race to pad out PPP's Colorado presidential sample, but they do look at the state's marijuana-legalization initiative which will be on the ballot in November. It's passing 47-38 (they also asked the more generic question as to whether people support legalizing marijuana, given the measure's confusing phrasing, and find a similar 49-43 agreement with that). They also look ahead to 2014, where Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper leads Generic R 52-38 (thanks to 54/29 approval, putting him in the top tier among governors), and Democratic Sen. Mark Udall edging Generic R 46-42. (David Jarman)

DCCC: Expect this regularly for the rest of the cycle: The D-Trip just filed a new IE report on Tuesday covering $325K in spending across five races. Click through for full details.

WATN?: Weird: Trey Grayson, the former Republican Secretary of State from Kentucky, is going to serve as a co-chair of ex-Rep. Gabby Giffords' new PAC, which will only support Democrats. Grayson seemed to check out of Kentucky politics after he lost the 2010 GOP Senate primary to rogue ophthalmologist Rand Paul, then became a director at Harvard's Institute of Politics. Grayson seems to be on a reverse Artur Davis trajectory, but with this latest move, it seems just as hard to imagine a return to office for him as it is for ol' Artur.

Redistricting Roundup:

TX Redistricting: On Friday, the three-judge court in San Antonio ruled that it will not make any changes to the legislative and congressional maps it drafted for us in this year's elections, in the wake of a decision by a separate judicial panel in DC which said last week that the legislature's lines failed to pass muster under section 5 of the Voting Rights Act. However, if the DC ruling is upheld on appeal and the legislature declines to take a second shot at map-drawing, then the San Antonio court will almost certainly have to reconvene after the election to revise the lines for future cycles.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  538 model more bullish than Nate's commentary? (9+ / 0-)

    Yesterday morning Nate Silver pegged the Romney convention bounce at 2.6%, which seemed suspiciously high to me. Interestingly though the "now-cast", where any bump should feed straight through to the top line, has hardly moved in this period. The projected vote share for an election held today was 50-48.5 last Tuesday as the RNC got under way, and it was 50-48.6 after last night's update. So where has the 2.6% Romney bounce gone? The model is showing no change.

    From today and for the next week or so, the November projection will start looking for evidence of an Obama bounce, so unless he gets the 4 points that Nate projected as the baseline, Obama's win percentage is likely to go down. Frankly I always thought 4 points was very optimistic, so my expectation is that the win percentage will fall back a bit from yesterday's very high 76.3% rating. Still I'm optimistic that the DNC will get a better response than the RNC - the benchmark on the model is effectively the 68.7% Obama was at the day the RNC started. If he comes out higher than that by this time next week then it'll look like a net plus from the convention season.

    One other nice little detail is that FL, which has been rising in Obama win % for some time now, has been uprated to "lean Obama" from "tossup".

    •  I've always wondered about convention bounces (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Woody, Odysseus

      for incumbents, especially at this level.

      We pretty much already know who they are going in.
      If they've pissed us off,  the convention's not likely to change that.
      If they've thrilled us, ditto.

      LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

      by dinotrac on Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 06:10:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Anecdote, not data point, but ... (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tietack, ellefarr, antooo, stevenaxelrod

        A friend works as a companion and caregiver for an elderly gent of high intelligence and considerable accomplishment in life, who sadly now cannot remember someone who just stepped out of the room.

        My friend says his client can only process TV on an emotional level because of his dementia.

        Last week they watched the RNC and every day the client was testy, restless, irritable, like an angry old white man. Yesterday with the DNC on the tube, the client was cheerful, upbeat, and happy, with good mental health.

        Gonna be hard to find any solid measure for such an emotional reaction in the polling, but I wanted to share the report.

  •  Making rich people spend money on (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    politics is good for the economy.

    Spending is good.  It's what money is for.

    Debt is good; the alternative is theft.

    Obligation is a word unpleasant to the conservative ear.  Conservatives don't want to hear what they owe.  All they care about is what they own.

    If you want to save something, save your soul.

    We organize governments to provide benefits and prevent abuse.

    by hannah on Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 05:32:10 AM PDT

  •  i see where (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    morning jerk said he was a republican and strong on small govt, is that so, i didn't hear him criticize the gop for big social gov promoted by the cons or is that a big govt program he supports like so many hypocrites in the gop.

  •  Grimm's Fairy tale-There it needed saying nt (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Woody

    The 1st Amendment gives you the right to say stupid things, the 1st Amendment doesn't guarantee a paycheck to say stupid things.

    by JML9999 on Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 05:42:47 AM PDT

  •  It's NY-13 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Unfortunately, that's my congressman.  sigh

    •  no, it's NY-11 (0+ / 0-)

      redistricting and all that. NY-13 is Charlie Rangel.

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 05:51:45 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Currently it's NY-13 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        But in Daily Kos Elections we use the new districts that will be used in the upcoming elections, not the districts currently in effect.

        30, (new) MA-7, Unenrolled

        Truman: "The buck stops here!"
        Romney: "The buck stops somewhere in the next county..."

        by Marcus Graly on Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 06:00:09 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  at any rate (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Sylv, Christopher Walker, itskevin

          the primaries already happened, so as far as I'm concerned, the new district lines are in effect. (and like you said, what matters is the seat he's running for, not the seat he represents.)

          Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

          by sapelcovits on Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 06:02:45 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I'm old-fashioned (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Marcus Graly

            and I won't change my signature to MA-07 until the 113th Congress is sworn in. Mike Capuano will remain my representative, but I voted for him to represent me for two years and he is doing so - if I was moved to another district in redistricting, he'd still be my representative right now (in other words, he might need to campaign in Randolph, and treat its residents as constituents to win their votes, but I don't consider them his constituents yet).

            28, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

            by bumiputera on Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 07:16:24 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I suppose (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:

              I've never had to think about this too deeply since neither of my districts changed in redistricting, but I personally think of the sig districts as the district you are voting in (or reside in, but would be voting in if you were registered there).

              Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

              by sapelcovits on Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 07:18:18 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  I wouldn't change until election day either (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:

              Except my state didn't change more than trivial number of precincts to balance population. My home was and still is MN-8, and my current district of residence was and is in MN-5. So it is moot for my case.

              •  I've already changed to my new district! (0+ / 0-)

                I got moved to a new district (CA-47) from my old one (CA-46). My old Rep is Dana Rohrabacher. I am so thrilled to be done with him. I'm hoping that my new Rep will be Alan Lowenthal and not Gary De Long.

      •  Of course, it is. DK is always right LOL (6+ / 0-)

        I decided to double check with the elections board website and was coming back to take it all back.   How could I have missed that?  

        But I liked being 13.  Almost as much I liked my old zip code: 00666.

  •  Israeli Rabbi's are rich? WHAT? How's that? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    I thought a Rabbi made a modest salary with good benefits?  How can this be?

    80 % of success is showing up

    Corporate is not the solution to our problem

    Corporate is the problem

    by Churchill on Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 05:48:10 AM PDT

  •  Good old Roscoe (8+ / 0-)

    He came to speak to my government class in high school and didn't know the 3 branches of government. Not kidding. He didn't know. He Rick Perry'd on us and had to get one of my classmates to give him the third branch.

  •  Is Grayson possibly aiming at Mitch? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DownstateDemocrat, spiderdem

    It would be reasonable to conclude that Ben Chanderle, as much as I like him and as much as I think he is owed everything good in politics after the unfair depiction of his stewardship of the Anthem Blue Cross fines by the Republican Governors Association,  cannot in fact successfully take on McConnell in 2014 and that a former Republican might.

    I'd rather have a dead person reprsenting kentucky than Mitch McConnell, so I might not be representative, but Grayson at least seeems to be a good-government conservative and bringing him under our fold is a much better alternative than allowing such individuals to languise in the GOP cesspool. I moved to FL from KY in 2005, so temper my opinion, but also note that I feel the same way about Crist.

    Have you heard? The vice president's gone mad. - Bob Dylan, 1966

    by textus on Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 06:02:09 AM PDT

    •  I wondered the same thing. (0+ / 0-)

      Supposedly, Sec. of State Grimes was acting like she was prepping for a run. 2014 might be too soon for her, but that's okay, as we have Luallen, Beashear, and Conway, to name a few others. But if for some reason none of them want it? Well then, Grayson might be a good replacement.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 06:43:18 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Jack Conway is a nice guy (0+ / 0-)

        but he couldn't win a third district seat and then he couldn't win an open seat. To think he can carry the state against an entrenched incumbent whose political machine begins in the Louisville suburbs is folly.

        Have you heard? The vice president's gone mad. - Bob Dylan, 1966

        by textus on Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 07:08:34 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Maybe, maybe not. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Christopher Walker, Odysseus

          He's won two elections as A.G., and while he didn't win against Paul, his margin was narrower than it might have otherwise been. (Of course, that could just be because Paul was extreme.) He did lose to Anne Northup, too, but they had tried for several years to knock her off, only to finally do it in the wave of 2006. I don't see any glaring problems with him as a candidate, but he's not my first choice, especially since Kentucky is probably our top pick up opportunity in 2014, which is saying something.

          He's only 43, so it's not as if this is his last chance at federal office. Perhaps he can run for governor, and then, after a successful term by Crit Luallen in the senate, he can take over for her.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 07:19:34 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Plus Chandler probably wants to run for Governor (0+ / 0-)

      28, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

      by bumiputera on Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 07:34:07 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I just can't imagine him switching 180 like that (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Although Artur Davis did it. But I just don't see Secretary Grayson completely changing every political position in 4 years just for political expedience

      •  Good point. But as an Ind. (0+ / 0-)

        He could possibly win election and then help forget whatever is going to replace the GOP often it implodes, which is what history says it is in the process of doing.

        Have you heard? The vice president's gone mad. - Bob Dylan, 1966

        by textus on Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 08:51:24 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Wasn't McConnell a big supporter (0+ / 0-)

      of his though?

  •  Sandra Fluke rips WI State Senator Glenn Grothman (6+ / 0-)

    Sandra Fluke went on CNN, and, although she didn't outright name Grothman, she ripped Grothman for his anti-equal pay for equal work crusade in Wisconsin.

    Joe Lieberman, Mike Madigan, Andrew Cuomo, and Tim Cullen...why are they Democrats?

    by DownstateDemocrat on Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 06:02:44 AM PDT

  •  Morning Joke (0+ / 0-)

    What do you expect? Typical hypocritical bullshit from that phony.  

  •  Anything interesting on IL-14? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Sylv, Woody

    We've flip-flopped R-D-R in the last few elections, going from Hastert->Foster->Hultgren.

    I believe us to be red-leaning district, but, obviously, not inflexible.

    Dennis Anderson seems to have a pretty solid background -- especially if health care issues are to be prominent, though it seems a bit "government-y", and that might not seem usefule to small business types.  He's going up against a lawyer, though, so that might be a wash.

    LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

    by dinotrac on Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 06:08:57 AM PDT

  •  Wow! (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sapelcovits, LordMike, Sylv, itskevin, Odysseus

    Sean Wiley merits a mention in the Elections Digest!  That's my district!  I'm glad to know that he's leading.

    -5.13,-5.64; If you gave [Jerry Falwell] an enema, you could bury him in a matchbox. -- Christopher Hitchens

    by gizmo59 on Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 06:09:01 AM PDT

  •  None of the above will appear on NV ballot (9+ / 0-)

    As a result of a 9th Circuit Court of Appeals order.

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 06:09:52 AM PDT

  •  IA-04: that Vilsack ad... (8+ / 0-)

    ...looks to me to be targeted to Iowa women.  I can see it appealing that way.  And she needs to drive up her margins with women to have a chance to win.

    That said, still I don't see any ads going hard negative on Steve King.

    I've said it before and I'll repeat it now:  she won't win without going hard negative.  If she doesn't, then House Majority PAC or the DCCC must do it.  And it can't just be on soft stuff, it's gotta be on King's extremism.  There's plenty to hit.

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 07:04:48 AM PDT

    •  I can just see the headlines now: (0+ / 0-)

      Steve King, Relative Moderate, Under Attack by Liberal Extremists.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 07:20:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yup, Steve King seems like Todd Aiken's (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bjssp, DCCyclone, stevenaxelrod

      closest ally. If Vilsack doesn't take advantage, she's not as politically savvy as I thought.

    •  She has to go nice first (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Christie Vilsack needs to get her positive message out there early on, then let her allies do the dirty work, as you suggest.

      Anyway, at another level, the Repubs have been going negative on Obama and the Democrats since the beginning of the primary, er, pre-caucus season a year or more ago. Rather than joining in that messy stream of attack ads, Vilsack can probably make a more distinct impression with a seven-layer salad of goodness.

      •  Attack ads work better, & now it's after Labor Day (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Odysseus, stevenaxelrod

        She had plenty of time for positive ads earlier and in fact aired some.

        If she wants to win, she has to join that messy stream pronto.  The winners are the candidates who jump into it.

        House races develop late, but now is when voters start really paying attention, and seven-layer salad won't get it done.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 08:11:34 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Obama speech moved indoors due to weather (6+ / 0-)

    Expect conservatives to say it was because they couldnt fill the seats. Oh, well, if it's a really good speech, I dont think it will matter. It may actually play better on TV in an arena.

    •  The question is, (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      which organization will be responsible for busing in the people to fill the smaller venue? Will they be required to fill out boxes of ballots to ship off to various swing states while on the bus? Why WOULDN'T they be required to do that?

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 07:24:20 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Crap. That's too bad. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      We have a greed with which we have agreed. -Eddie Vedder "Society"

      by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 07:42:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think it will play better on TV (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, andgarden, LordMike, itskevin

      I was never a huge fan of the football-stadium acceptance speech.  Yes, it gives a ton more people a shot at being there, and there is the good visual of a full stadium, but I think the speech itself will quite possibly play better inside.

    •  Clint Eastwood will speak at BoA now. (nm) (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, LordMike


      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 07:44:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  weather (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dc1000, LordMike

      I looked at the National Weather Service forecast for Charlotte and they've got a 20% of storms Thursday night at 10 eastern (down from just over 30% at 7 eastern when people would have been filing into the stadium).  Also, the Hazardous Weather Outlook from Thursday through next Tuesday says "No hazardous weather is expected at this time."  By the way, I'm quite the weather geek, so I read this NWS content all the time.

      Not to go all concern troll/"what's the REAL reason?" on us, but just a cursory glance at the forecast makes the weather look like it would probably have been fine for an outdoor event.  *Probably", not absolutely, but considering the National Weather Service is not predicting any severe weather Thursday evening and a small chance of rain, there's a decent chance we'll see camera shots of a moon over Charlotte when the networks start their Thursday night coverage.

      Charlotte NWS forecast & info

      •  Can it moved back outside if (0+ / 0-)

        it's nice enough? I'd guess not, but what do I know?

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 07:53:04 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  And they had to know booking the outdoor venue (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        there would certain gamble involved.  If it's 20% than that's part of the gamble they needed to take.  I mean you're not going to get 0% chance in NC at this time of the year - or so I'm told.  

        We have a greed with which we have agreed. -Eddie Vedder "Society"

        by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 07:54:57 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I'm not a weather geek (6+ / 0-)

        but living in the south, I know if there is a thunderstorm, it can be pretty nasty weather. So I think maybe they didnt want to take the chance that something develops at like, 8pm, and then what do you do?

        •  And... (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jj32, bumiputera, LordMike

          ...that's the risk.  Forecasts can go wrong (I live in Wisconsin, where we'll have a forecast of sunny and 90 for the next day - and then we actually hit 80 with storms).

          The overall situation coming into the convention was awkward.  On the one hand, after having the 2008 acceptance speech in a stadium, the Dems almost HAD to have the 2012 speech in a stadium.  Otherwise, holding it in the regular convention arena would invite a bunch of media punditry and neo-journalism about Obama's declining popularity meaning he had to downsize his biggest political speech of the cycle.  This wouldn't be as big a deal if Obama's approval were 55%+ and he were smoking his opponent in the polls, but anything 50% or under would set the situation for these kinds of stories...and, of course, it just so happens Obama's at or just under 50% and close to his opponent (Romney), so cue the media "Obama's not as popular as 4 years ago) stories in 3...2...

          On the other hand, if the Dems went full speed ahead with a stadium speech, and there was a downpour?  That gets in the ways of the optics.  In a way, that would be the "Clint Eastwood's odd speech" distraction of the final night.  A party only wants the focus on their core message and nominee, and any distraction can eat away at the margins in a close election.  If it's raining?  That's what people at home would be focusing on along with the content of the speech - when really all they should be focusing on is the speech itself.  Media stories the next day would be half-about the rain, not the content of the speech.  Also, if there's rain, a bunch of people would likely not attend, there would be swaths of empty seats...and, once again, media stories of "Obama's not as popular as 4 years ago since he couldn't fill a stadium this time."

          The solution?  Probably would have been to hold the convention in a city with a dome.  The entire convention could have been held in the domed stadium (like the RNC in the Superdome in 1988 and the Astrodome in 1992), and the seating/stage could be adapted based on the expected turnout for the acceptance speech.  And, guess what?  Two of the other three DNC 2012 finalists have domed stadiums:  St. Louis and Minneapolis (Cleveland doesn't -- by the way, Cleveland's Thursday evening forecast has a tiny chance of rain, less that Charlotte).

          This is also why I think the 2016 DNC should be in Phoenix.  Not only can they try to do in Arizona what they did in Colorado in 2008 (when, by 2016, Arizona might be in position to be competitive), but they have a domed stadium for the entire convention.

          •  Phoenix?? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            You'd send people to Phoenix in late August? It's past peak heat season, so you'll probably get 85 at 6 in the morning, 110 in the afternoon, and 95 at 11 pm instead of 90/115/100. They'd be better off putting it in Fargo. The Fargodome holds about 20,000 people and the weather is much nicer that time of year.

            SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

            by sacman701 on Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 08:41:25 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  I arrived at the Denver Stadium event at noon (0+ / 0-)

        and caught a special bus to the event at 11:30. We probably started two hours earlier than Charlotte due to time zone, but people arrived very early and it took quite a long time to get processed and be allowed to enter. My brother had to walk quite a long distance and there was no easily available shelters. He missed most of the early portions of the event.

        You need to look a a much bigger time span for possible bad weather. We just needed to make sure everyone was hydrated in Denver.

        I just hope they do something nice for people who have tickets to the large stadium, but not the smaller venue. It was a wonderful atmosphere and a memorable event.

    •  Not just conservatives... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      ....the entire media is concern trolling it.

      All the headlines are, "DNC moves Obama speech to smaller venue."  Such bullshit, really...


      by LordMike on Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 08:43:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That's better than Politico's bullshit. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        Politico felt the need to run with an "article" about Bill Clinton's "most famous" digs at Obama, because...well, why wouldn't they do that on the night he's speaking to support Obama?

        I used quotaton marks because it's questionable about whether something which contains three paragraphs that are original, two of which are one sentence long, and none of which contain any original information, counts as an article.

        Then there's this, about those with connections to Solyndra partying with Obama at some fund raising event. Steve Westly, as best I can tell, had the balls to warn President Obama about the political imagery of visiting site and....that's it. Am I missing something? Did brave truth tellers like Darrell Issa ever find anything?

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 09:14:25 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'm serious: (0+ / 0-)

          did they ever find anything on Solyndra? I don't think so, but maybe I missed something.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 09:23:36 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  This will definately hurt our NC organizine... (0+ / 0-)

      The stadium event is a massive organizing event, and there will definitely be a price paid for having to move it inside.


      by LordMike on Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 09:27:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  ND-Sen Debate Live streaming (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, KingofSpades
  •  WATN (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Woody, KingofSpades

    Lew Fidler, who ran in the NY-SD-27 special election this March (the one that took 50,000 years to resolve), has leukemia. :(

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 07:20:49 AM PDT

  •  Betty White (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, Christopher Walker

    She announced that she will not be flying to Charlotte to introduce President Obama on Thursday. Sigh. That's too bad.

  •  question for Arizonans (0+ / 0-)

    which of your two senators do you think is worse - McCain or Kyl? McCain is the more well known for his run for president and all but I've always thought Kyl was much worse.

    McCain is seen as a mean guy but at least he's honest. Kyl just has that smug aspect to him when he talks and almost has an evil smirk on his face. McCain at least had the maverick aspect to him but Kyl is a fierce partisan and has a lifetime ACU of around 96/97.

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 08:27:29 AM PDT

    •  I lived there from 1993-98 (7+ / 0-)

      They were both my senator. Kyl is worse by a wide, wide margin. McCain occasionally says interesting things and does useful things especially on defense and foreign issues, even if he is too much of a hawk in my opinion. Kyl is an absolute GOP hack, a smoother version of Mitch McConnell. I can't think of anything positive he's done the entire time he's been in Congress.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 08:44:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well, he's leaving. Does that count? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Mark27, jncca

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 09:19:50 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Karl Rove Eyes Key Senate Races (4+ / 0-)

    In a somewhat interesting but unintentionally hilarious article, BusinessWeek describes how Rove sees the Senate takeover possibilities for his party and how he interacts with his party's contributors. Highlighted below are a few things that stuck out.

    By the way, why does Marco Rubio look like he's passing a kidney stone in every single shot? I'm told by, well, everyone that I am a cranky SOB, but he makes me look I'm on 800 mg of Xanex.

    I had been invited to attend as the guest of a significant Republican donor who knew that I was a journalist. At no point was I presented with, nor did I agree to, restrictions regarding the information I heard. Upon my arrival at the breakfast, I was not asked if I was a journalist. I gave my name, identified the person who had invited me, received a wristband, and was ushered into the dining room. American Crossroads disputes this version of events but declined to comment further.
    What does Crossroads dispute, exactly? That she was invited? Do they believe she snuck in under a catering cart or took notes from an air vent or something?
    CEO Law offered words of praise for Rove and fellow Crossroads adviser Haley Barbour—”who really are doing this out of the goodness of their hearts—they don’t get paid anything”—before turning the presentation over to his political experts.
    Leave aside the possibility that this bit about the salaries is bullshit, which I suspect it is; I'm speechless about the "goodness of their hearts" comment. Who really believes that nonsense?
    Rove handled the Senate math. Republicans need four seats to gain a majority, and Rove said he’s hopeful the party can pick up three from Nebraska, North Dakota, Wisconsin, and Virginia. Between New Mexico, Hawaii, and Connecticut, he added, “we’ve got a shot to take at least one.”
    Your side's chances to win the Hawaii senate race are about as good as the chances of me marrying Mila Kunis this Saturday, Karl. They are only slightly better in New Mexico and Connecticut.
    Rove listed five people interested in taking embattled Missouri Senate candidate Todd Akin’s place should Akin leave the race: Missouri congressional candidate Ann Wagner; state auditor Thomas Schweich; Jo Ann Emerson, representative from Missouri’s 8th district; and two candidates who competed with Akin in the Republican primary. Then he added a surprising sixth name. “The rumor is that Jack Danforth is interested, which would be astonishing,” Rove said of the former Missouri senator who turns 76 on Sept. 5. “And interestingly enough, the reason they’ve gotten interested in it is Romney’s pick of Paul Ryan. He said, ‘Romney’s serious about entitlement reform, and I’d like to be there for that battle.’”
    Is he just making stuff up at this point? Who besides Rove has suggested that Danforth is interested in getting back in? Oh well, you've got 20 days, or is that 18 days (based on the military ballots, meaning September 23) to turn what appears to be a fantasy into reality.  Get crackin', Karl.

    And that lose sentences don't make sense. These people are interested because Rove is interested in entitlement reform? What? (If it wasn't for his horse, would he have spent that year in college?)

    If Missouri doesn’t work out, Rove identified Montana, where Republican Representative Denny Rehberg is attempting to unseat Senator Jon Tester, as “our best other shot,” and Florida, where Representative Connie Mack is trying to push out longtime Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson, as “a good shot.”
    If Mack unseats Nelson, I will eat my running shoes.

    And why isn't Tester a big target as is? I'm fairly confident he can pull it out, but it's not as if he's running with the wind at his back. What are they seeing that we aren't seeing?

    As for the closely watched race in Ohio, one of the states that has generated the most political spending by outside groups like American Crossroads, Rove said that he’d had a call from an unnamed out-of-state donor who told him, “I really like Josh Mandel,” referring to the Ohio treasurer attempting to unseat Democrat Sherrod Brown.
    Democrats really like Josh Mandel, too. I heard Sherrod Brown is a big, big fan, lol.

    But notice how there aren't any quotes about how they think they can win in Ohio. The same can be said for Nevada, which is barely mentioned.

    “She’s going to use the money, her husband told me, for charitable and philanthropic efforts.” He looked around the room. “So if any of you gave her money, I would call and ask for your money back. If you do, give it to Charlie Summers, our Republican candidate.”

    Seriously now, I urge them to give money to Charlie Summers, too. It's the next best thing to flushing it down the toilet.

    “But we’re gonna lose, either [Summers] or Scott Brown—we can’t afford to lose both,” Rove said ominously. “If we win both, we’re in great shape. If we lose one, it starts to get a little bit edgy. If we lose two, we’re in real difficulty.”
    Hmm, interesting. They can't win both?
    Barbour took the microphone to discuss the importance of voter turnout efforts. “Democrats have an interesting turnout program, they call it ‘Knock and Drag,’” Barbour said. “You go to certain neighborhoods, you knock on the door, and you drag every adult there out, put ’em on a bus, and take ’em to vote.”
    Drats, they're on to us.

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 08:43:38 AM PDT

    •  my hair turned white (0+ / 0-)

      a the idea that Danforth could parachute in as a pinch hitter for Akin. However, after a moment, I reflected that he would be completely unacceptable to a large segment of the GOP base, and to many of the richest donors.

      A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

      by Christopher Walker on Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 01:50:54 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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