Two big numbers dropped this morning. The biggest, arguably, is the huge ADP number (diaried here) which came in over 200,000, way above estimates. This bodes very well for tomorrow's jobs number.
The second number is the new unemployment claims number. This is a weekly figure and is a more-recently updated figure—the number released today encompasses last week, not last month. We almost always see the seasonally-adjusted figure (and for good reason, at certain times of the year it bounces around by hundreds of thousands each week). Today's number was good at 365,000, but not too far off the recent trend.
However, this is not a time of year when there is usually much fluctuation, and the not seasonally-adjusted number tells a different story. It's 307,000. Follow below for how good a number that is.
The last time the not-seasonally-adjusted number was below 307k was in 2008. In May. Specifically, the week that includes Memorial Day, which tends to have lower numbers (fewer days = fewer opportunities to fire people, apparently). (This is one of the reasons we have seasonal adjustment, especially for weekly numbers. However, there is not much variation in the numbers from August to November.) Since Mem Day '08, there hasn't been a single week with a better number than last week. Not a-one.
But even better is that this is part of a trend. The last six weeks have had numbers of:
- 313k
- 320k
- 318k
- 312k
- 312k
- 307k
When the economy was cranking out 200k+ jobs per month early this year, only two weeks had numbers lower than 320k. So six of the best eight weeks in the last four years, and six of the best eleven weeks in the last five years (going back to 2007) have been …
the last six weeks. And the average of the last six weeks, 314,000, is lower than any single week since May of 2008. Which, you may remember, was before the crash.
It will be very interesting to see what the Jobs number is tomorrow morning (and if it is telegraphed tonight; apparently Obama will know it ahead of time). The market expects 130-140k. If it comes close to the rosy ADP figure, it will be worth watching the unemployment numbers in the next few weeks. If they stay low, it will signal continued strength in the jobs market, which would be huge for Team D (and almost unspinnable for the R&R boys).
If it's not, it would portend a closer election (I'm figuring that a baller DNC and a great jobs number would give a considerable bounce). However, the number next week includes Labor Day, and is likely to break below the 300,000 mark when not adjusted. If these lower numbers continue, it gives the Dems a slight edge in a close election, simply because fewer people are getting laid off.
The first half of 2012 tracked 2008 pretty well in the weekly unemployment numbers, but in 2008, obviously, the numbers spiked after the summer. This year, we're trending downwards. We're not at 2007 levels yet (when the numbers bottomed out around 250,000) but we're moving in the right direction. And the BLS's adjustments for this year parallel those of 2007, which means they expect the labor market to behave like it did in the last pre-crash year. A steady, downward course would be a very good thing.