It's been tweleve years and a day since this classic was published:
Since Labor Day, the media have released about 20 polls on the presidential race. Three show a dead heat, one shows George W. Bush leading by a single percentage point, and the rest show Al Gore leading by one to 10 points. In the latest polls, Gore leads by an average of five points. It's fashionable at this stage to caution that "anything can happen," that Bush is "retooling," and that the numbers can turn in Bush's favor just as easily as they turned against him. But they can't.(source: "Why Bush is Toast" by William Saletan. Slate Magazine, September 14, 2000.)
Do I think that Romney is going to eke out an electoral college win with help of a friendly judiciary while losing the popular vote?
No. Nor do I think that Obama is in the same soft position that Al Gore was in.
But do I think that there is a huge risk of complacency? Yes.