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In nine days, we will know if the United States Supreme Court has decided whether marriage equality will return to California almost immediately. The Justices will consider whether to hear Perry v Brown -- the Proposition 8 case -- on September 24th. If the Justices deny certiorari we will know about their decision on September 25th. The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals' decision ruling Proposition 8 unconstitutional would stand, and most experts agree that same-sex marriages will be able to take place in California shortly thereafter.

If they accept the case, a decision will likely come in late spring, approximately five years after the California Supreme Court first ruled that same-sex marriage was a fundamental right enshrined in the California constitution, subsequently un-enshrined by Proposition 8.

Expect a lot of gnawed off fingernails and plucked eyebrows as September 25th draws nigh.

Find a more detailed analysis of what could happen at the Supreme Court at Prop 8 Trial Tracker, e.g., The Bottom Line: A guide to Prop 8 and the Supreme Court.

In France, sometime next month, the French government plans to introduce its marriage equality bill. We don't know when it will become law but there is little doubt that it will in fact become law in the not-too-distant future.

In fifty-one days, marriage equality will come to Maine and Washington State. Voters in Maine will approve a ballot initiative legalizing same-sex marriage, while voters in Washington State will ratify marriage equality legislation passed by their Legislature some months ago. Remember that you heard it here first.

In fifty-one days we will know whether marriage equality will come to Maryland on January 1st, 2013. Voters in Maryland, as in Washington State, will also be voting on whether to ratify enacted marriage equality legislation. The odds are good that ratification will occur, but the crystal ball is still a bit foggy on this one, especially considering that the most recent polling the crystal ball has perceived is a month and a half old.

In some amount of time measured in months but not years, New Zealand is likely to pass a marriage equality bill that was introduced some weeks ago and voted on favorably at its first reading by a large majority.

In Australia, efforts at a national level to enact same-sex marriage legalization seem destined to fail sometime soon, but all is not lost. Four Australian states, Tasmania, South Australia, Victoria and now Western Australia have had marriage equality legislation introduced into their state legislatures. No one knows what will happen if one or more Australia's states passes the legislation, since some claim Federal law prohibits states from enacting such legislation on their own; but it will be interesting to watch.

In Rhode Island, the Speaker of the House of Representatives has vowed to bring marriage equality legislation to a vote early in 2013, but the State Senate is still the stumbling block: its President, though a Democrat, is staunchly anti-same sex marriage.

In Delaware, the Governor, Jack Markell, has said he wants to see marriage equality legislation considered in 2013.

In other news, the Malaysian government helpfully points out for parents wondering if their child is gay that lesbians

have no affection for men.
while gay men
Prefer tight and light-coloured clothes.

10:27 AM PT: It may well be the case that we will not know until October 1st if the Supreme Court has denied cert.  We would only know on September 25th if SCOTUS has decided to hear the case.  See the comments.

Originally posted to jpmassar on Sun Sep 16, 2012 at 09:46 AM PDT.

Also republished by California politics, SFKossacks, Progressive Policy Zone, Kossacks for Marriage Equality, Angry Gays, and Milk Men And Women.

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