Mark Halperin and Time Magazine have linked to a remarkably straightforward and comprehensive political analysis of both the current status and probable outcome of the Presidential, House and Senate races and the demonstrable shifting of the political winds that appear to be influencing the voters this election cycle.
The analysis is contained in a multi-page memorandum (linked below) by Doug Sosnick, former President Clinton's political director. Halperin notes that a lot of what Sosnick says will likely irritate Republicans but he stands by the objectivity and evenhandedness of Sosnick's work. Halperin writes:
Doug Sosnik is one of the smartest people in American politics. A Democrat, who worked for, among others, Bill Clinton, he is the rare partisan who is able to engage in dispassionate analysis about the two major parties and their candidates.
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Ds Fall Elections 9.14.2012 Final Memo
With the political conventions behind us, we head into the final phase of the 2012 election cycle with Obama maintaining his year-long advantage over Mitt Romney. As the current turmoil in the Middle East demonstrates, a lot of unexpected events can happen in the 53 days leading up to the election. But if history is our guide, the race is already well on its way to being decided before the final votes are cast.
Sosnick cites all of the factors underlying his analysis, including President Obama's more-or-less consistent job approval ratings (as we know they've actually improved during the last thirty days), his personal popularity (arguably the most important factor in any election), the fact that most voters are already firmly decided, and the fact that:
Voters Still Blame Bush More than Obama for Economic Problems:The public continues to blame Bush more than Obama for the current state of the economy.According to an August 25th Washington Post poll, more than half of voters (54%)blame Bush for the current economic problems in the country, while only 32% blame Obama.
Sosnick has some bitter news for the GOP electorate. Ultimately they have no one to blame but themselves for standing behind the likes of the Tea Party:
6. Republicans’ Low Approval Ratings Work Against Romney:The low approval ratings of George Bush and the Republican Party continue to drag down Romney'scandidacy. In a CNN poll conducted this summer, voters gave George Bush the lowest favorability ratings (43% favorable/54% unfavorable) of any living president. The most recent Wall Street Journal/NBC poll found that 45% of voters view the Republican Party negatively, while only 36% hold a positive view...[.]
In a synopsis of how voters personally feel about their candidate, the difference is stark. Obama voters are predominantly voting
for their candidate, while Romney voters are predominantly voting
against Obama. This schism helps to illustrate the overall sentiments of the electorate:
Put simply, the Obama/Romney poll numbers over the last year confirm Obama’s general appeal with the public. At the same time, the numbers demonstrate Romney’s failure to connect with the electorate. Voters don’t believe that Romney can relate to their own hopes, fears and aspirations.
Sosnick analyzes each candidates path to 270 with results that Nate Silver would probably agree with. The analysis of media buys in "swing" states is particularly interesting (In Michigan the Obama campaign has spent $10,500 as compared to 8 million spent by the GOP.) For the sake of brevity and fair use I won't repeat it here, nor will I get into his evaluation of the Senate races. He essentially states that Republicans now appear to have squandered what should have been a fairly easy route to controlling the Senate. While he gives the GOP a decent shot at control, he believes the current breakdown favors the Democrats. He believes the House is likely to remain under Republican control due to the large 2010 gains, reapportionment and redistricting.
Of the overall political trends, Sosnick takes note of near seismic shifts in the political zeitgeist that have occurred in the last decade:
2. Democrats now have the high ground on three issues–foreign policy, social issues and taxes–that have virtually paralyzed them for the past 50 years.
With respect to "social issues," for example, the public sentiment now favors the Democrats:
Social Issues: The country is veering further and further away from the social movement litmus test issues that currently dominate the Republican Party. Gone are the days when Republicans used these wedge issues to put Democrats on the defensive. It is now the Democrats who want to put these issues into play. Republicans’ long-held positions on gay marriage and women’s reproductive health only serve to alienate women and voters under 30, many of whom find the party’s hard right views on these issues particularly offensive.
The report is not all good news for the Democrats--Sosnick forecasts continued GOP dominance of the statehouses and recognizes it is well-positioned to control Congress throughout the remainder of the decade. One of the reasons he cites is the degree of depth and young talent rising through the GOP ranks, as evidenced by their convention speakers.
All in all this is a very worthwhile read.
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