Obama leads Romney by 1 point among likely voters. But wait . . . Obama leads Romney by 15 points among all adults and by 10 points among registered voters. What is going on here? The answer is, they're using a ridiculously tight likely voter screen that counts only 63% of registered voters as likely voters. That might make sense for a midterm election but the normal turnout of registered voters in a presidential election is around 80-85%.