While many folks focus on the Presidential Election, possibly more important is the down ticket races. Well, without much fanfare there has been a significant change in the outlook for Democratic Majority to be maintained forecasted by Nate Silver over at 538. It isn't obvious but the tabs on the right hand side include a Senate Forecast. A click on that and one sees a dramatic change in one month on the Senate prospects.
On August 19th he had the Republicans taking over the Senate with essentially 51 seats and 49 for the Democrats and placed a Republican majority as a 61.5% probability. His most recent forecast has it reversed with 51 seats for the Dems and 49 for the Republicans and a 70.1% probability .
A quick glance at the states below would seem to indicate that Warren's latest strong numbers in Massachusetts probably has had the biggest effect, with AKin's remarks also helping change the tide.
But I think this is getting overshadowed by the Presidential race, when losing the Senate would be a disaster. It would be nice to get the House back, too. Also, the Senate races are less polled so it is in danger of moving around more dramatically, of course. But the trend is clearly in the right direction and I wonder if the defeatism surrounding the Romney campaign will trickle into enthusiasm erosion and support down ticket as well.
UPDATE: Well there was a whole article by Nate published yesterday that I didn't even see on this...
FiveThirtyEight Forecast: G.O.P. Senate Hopes Slipping
But our analysis also suggests that the Democratic advantage has probably been building over the past few weeks, and may not have any one root cause. Instead, Republicans risk death by a thousand cuts, with a gradual deterioration in their standing in several important races, and their inability to field optimal candidates in others.