A month ago the main goal was President Obama's reelection. A week ago maintaining control of the Senate became realistic. Today? Today the number experts suggest we can start working on the trifecta, the House can be won!
Our deficit in the House is currently 50 seats! We need to win back 25 just to reach parity. This doesn't typically happen during presidential reelection years.
But Sam Wang says its looking likely and Nate Silver says it's on the radar.
More below the orange cloud of victory.
Here's a look at the numbers according to Princeton's Sam Wang:
Using all polls and median-based statistics to address issues of outlier data gives the median of D+4.0% that I gave. That translates to a narrow 16-seat Democratic majority in an election held today.
This would be an unusual outcome. It would involve a Democratic net pickup of over 30 seats, much more than the typical gain for a re-elected president’s party. But 2010 was also an exceptional wave year for the Republicans. Again, think of the pendulum. In any event, this is what the numbers are currently telling us.
Nate Silver doesn't (yet?) offer a House forecast but in his latest look at the Senate (linked above) he finds a strong likelihood of Democratic control - a 79 percent chance in his forecast. Further he concludes:
....the question may no longer be whether Republicans can win the Senate - but how vulnerable they are to losing the House.
The return of Speaker Pelosi? She deserves it. Pelosi was the strongest voice in Congress or the White House pushing the public option during the healthcare battle. Time to go for the gavel.
Are you in?