The good polling continues for Obama today as the clock begins to tick down to early voting beginning next Tuesday in Ohio.
Originally published at No We Can't Politics.
The good polling continues for Obama today as the clock begins to tick down to early voting beginning next Tuesday in Ohio.
Here are the numbers, followed by my analysis.
* OHIO: Obama 52%, Romney 44% (Washington Post)
* OHIO: Obama 45%, Romney 44% (Gravis)
* FLORIDA: Obama 51%, Romney 47% (Washington Post)
* NEVADA: Obama 52%, Romney 43% (Public Policy)
As I said earlier today, The Washington Post poll of Ohio and Florida is likely to set off a fresh round of internal panic within the Romney campaign as well as provide more ammunition to the "Romney's falling further behind" media narrative (and more importantly, making it more difficult for the Dick Morris-types to continue to avoid reality). The Ohio numbers are especially crucial as early voting there begins next Tuesday. Romney got a good number in Ohio from Gravis, which has Obama up just 1%, but Gravis' polling has been odd all year -- they've jumped wildly from one candidate to another -- so I wouldn't vouch much in the reliability of their numbers. We'll need to see at least a couple of other pollsters show any numbers resembling Gravis' to give that poll more credibility, until then, it looks like an outlier. Obama's average lead in Ohio is now at 4.4%.
Obama also got his largest lead in Nevada all year with the Public Policy poll which has him up 9%. Obama's average lead in Nevada is now up to 4.2%.
And while it isn't a poll number, the news today that Obama's new 47% ad will not be airing in Wisconsin (it'll air in CO, IA, FL, VA, NC, OH, NV, NH) is a sign that the campaign's internal data no longer shows Wisconsin as a swing state. We've seen that in the public polls as well, with Obama's average lead there now up to 7.8%.
And so we basically remain in somewhat of a holding pattern right now. For now, Obama has a very large electoral college lead, and every day that goes by is one less day for Romney to close the gap. We may not see anything major now until the debate next week.
Originally published at No We Can't Politics.