In less than six weeks the question of marriage equality will have been decided in three more states. If any of those states vote for marriage equality, the last talking point of the bigots -- that no state's people has ever voted for same-sex marriage -- will have fallen.
I thought it would be interesting to see where things stood in terms of the polling that has been done this year. And how these polling results compare with the polling and ultimate results in California in 2008 with respect to Prop 8, and in Maine in 2009 with respect to Question 1.
In both California and Maine, about five weeks out, things were looking good for our side, and yet marriage equality crashed and burned. A torrent of nasty negative advertising was unleashed, resulting in swings of more than 10% in each state between the polling as of approximately October 1 and the ultimate results.
Below I look at how things stand now in each of Maine, Maryland, and Washington, using all the 2012 polls that I am aware of that specifically ask about the referendum question (i.e., I am not including polling which asks about the legalization of same-sex marriage in the abstract).
Then I look at the polling in California and Maine up to about this same time in 2008 and 2009, respectively.
Maine: 2012 referendum question summary and polling:
Do you want to allow the State of Maine to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples?
53-43
52-44
57-43
55-36
58-40
47-32
Average: 53.7% - 39.7%, +14.0%
Maryland: 2012 referendum question summary and polling:
Establishes that Maryland's civil marriage laws allow gay and lesbian couples to obtain a civil marriage license, provided they are not otherwise prohibited from marrying; protects clergy from having to perform any particular marriage ceremony in violation of their religious beliefs; affirms that each religious faith has exclusive control over its own theological doctrine regarding who may marry within that faith; and provides that religious organizations and certain related entities are not required to provide goods, services, or benefits to an individual related to the celebration or promotion of marriage in violation of their religious beliefs.
51-43
54-40
57-37
51-43
40-43
50-44
49-47
Average: 50.3 - 42.4, +7.9%
Washington: 2012 Referendum question summary and polling:
This bill allows same-sex couples to marry, applies marriage laws without regard to gender, and specifies that laws using gender-specific terms like husband and wife include same-sex spouses. After 2014, existing domestic partnerships are converted to marriages, except for seniors. It preserves the right of clergy or religious organizations to refuse to perform or recognize any marriage or accommodate wedding ceremonies. The bill does not affect licensing of religious organizations providing adoption, foster-care, or child-placement.
52-40
56-38
50-43
50-43
50-46
47-46
2012 average: 50.8% - 42.7%, +8.1%
California: Proposition 8 language and polls before September 27th, 2008:
Section I. Title
This measure shall be known and may be cited as the "California Marriage Protection Act."
Section 2. Article I.
Section 7.5 is added to the California Constitution, to read:
Sec. 7.5. Only marriage between a man and a woman is valid or recognized in California.
44-49
41-55
38-55
40-54
42-51
42-51
54-35
2008 average: 43.0% - 48.6% , +5.6%
2008 result: -4.4%
Maine: Question 1 language and poll results before Oct 7th, 2009:
"Do you want to reject the new law that lets same-sex couples marry and allows individuals and religious groups to refuse to perform these marriages?"
48-46
41-50
43-52
2009 average: 44.0% - 49.3%, +5.3%
2009 result: -5.8%
Summary, circa October 1 of various years:
Maine: +14.0% @ 53.7%
Maryland: + 7.9% @ 50.3%
Washington: + 8.1% @ 50.8%
California: + 5.6% @ 48.6%
Maine: + 5.3% @ 49.3%
What's the bad news?
If a blitz of bigoted advertising can swing things by 10% - 11%, marriage equality is in deep trouble in Maryland, in serious trouble in Washington, but still looks reasonably good in Maine.
Even if no one's minds are changed, our majorities are razor-thin in MD and WA (and still just a few percent in WA). We need a more-than-insubstantial percent of the undecided to break for marriage equality to give us a cushion, and it's not clear whether that will happen. Pundits have suggested that almost all undecideds end up voting against marriage equality.
What's the good news?
Language matters. There will still be voters unfamilar with the issue. These unaware voters should be much less likely to vote against marriage equality given the positive-oriented summary language in each of the three states this time around than they were more likely to vote for the at-first-glance-appealing "only marriage between a man and a woman is valid" language on the ballot in California.
It's 2012, not 2008. The issue has played out in the news and social media. There should be significantly fewer people who will be swayed by NOM et al's advertising, and hopefully some of those who might still be will be reverse-swayed by more effective advertising from the other side. Surely we've learned something in three years on how to messasge marriage equality more effectively?
What's the upshot?
Prediction is hard. Especially of the future. We are likely to get a lot more data as November 6th nears, to see if anti-marriage equality advertising is having any significant effect.
But if I had to bet now, it would be 50-50 for Maryland, a small edge for marriage equality in Washington, and a large edge to all the Mainers who have worked so hard for the last couple of years to make sure they reverse 2009.
Resulting in some head explosions at NOM headquarters.