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Leading Off:

CT-Sen: Uh, whoa:

In little-noticed remarks at a Tea Party town hall meeting earlier this year, Republican Connecticut Senate candidate Linda McMahon proposed introducing a "sunset provision" into the Social Security Act. [...]

Speaking before a group of Tea Party supporters in Waterford, Conn. on April 20, however, McMahon said she would consider making major changes to Social Security, from raising the retirement age to means-testing benefits. She also proposed introducing a "sunset provision"—the legislative term for putting an expiration date on a law unless it is renewed. [...]

At the April Tea Party gathering, McMahon said in response to a question about how to "strengthen" Social Security and Medicare that "we cannot continue doing things the way we are doing with Social Security. We're just simply going to be bankrupt."

The candidate later continued, "In other words, I believe in sunset provisions when we pass this kind of legislation, so that you take a look at it 10, 15 years down the road to make sure that it's still going to fund itself. Social Security will run out of money if we continue to do what we're doing, if we rob the trust fund, if we think that there's any money there."

A sunset... for Social Security. Holy smokes. And oh man. Check out McMahon's Clintonian response:
"She didn't mean sunset in terms of what most people typically think of a sunset provision of a bill," said Todd Abrajano, her communication director.
Good luck with that one! While we're at it, it turns out that McMahon has even more of a history of late tax payments than we previously realized:
For the second time in less than a week, a review of municipal records by The Courant show that McMahon also failed to pay her property taxes on time. She paid the property taxes on her Greenwich home late four times since 1984 and was assessed close to $2,000 in interest and penalties. This comes a few days after news that McMahon was six weeks late this month paying taxes on a Stamford condo she owns with her husband Vince.
But wait, there's more!
Also Wednesday, The Day obtained municipal records that show McMahon was once six-months late in paying the second half of her 2002 property taxes on a $1.9 million gated townhouse in Greenwich that she bought for her mother. McMahon paid the unit's $14,510 tax bill in full in January 2003, including $723 in accrued interest.
Yeah, I think when it comes to timely payment of debts, Linda McMahon really needs stop her jawing. And about Social Security, too. Actually, she probably should just avoid talking altogether. Wait, no, am I crazy? Keep it up, Linda! We love you!

Senate:

IN-Sen, IN-Gov: More good polling news for Dem Rep. Joe Donnelly: He leads Republican Richard Mourdock 40-38 in the latest poll from Howey Politics & DePauw University (conducted jointly by Dem firm Garin-Hart-Yang and GOP pollster Bellwether Research). That's up from a 35-35 tie all the way back in March, the last time Howey was in the field, and is also pretty similar to what little other recent polling we've seen. Here's one interesting stat: Among Republicans who voted for Sen. Dick Lugar in the primary, Mourdock's currently only winning 60% of them, while 15% are backing Donnelly. (Howey doesn't publish full crosstabs, though, so we don't know how big this group is.)

Things, however, look less bright for Team Blue in the governor's race. There, GOP Rep. Mike Pence is beating Dem John Gregg 47-34, not too different from Pence's 44-31 edge last time. Pence is getting awfully close to that 50% mark, though am I alone in thinking that 47%, given Pence's huge cash edge and Indiana's very red tendencies, is kinda weak with just six weeks to go? I'm sure Gregg wouldn't like to hear it, but at least if he can keep Pence's margin down, he'll help improve Donnelly's chances of knocking off Mourdock. Meanwhile, on the presidential front, Obama trails Romney 52-40, a little worse than the previous 49-40 gap. However, the last poll was taken while the GOP primaries were still ongoing, so it's notable that Mitt hasn't improved his standing very much since then.

Though, turning back to the Senate contest for a sec, I'm seriously not getting what Donnelly is trying to do here. He now says he'll vote for Obama—but may not vote for Harry Reid as Senate Majority Leader? If you're going to make that move, which is a dumb move anyway, you say you might not vote for the President (who might actually drive votes) rather than saying it about Harry Reid (who nobody gives a shit about). Plus, your vote in a presidential race is obviously not outcome-determinative on an individual level. But saying that you might dangle your leadership vote in a 51-49 or 50-50 Senate? Sheesh.

ME-Sen: Steve Mistler at the Portland Press-Herald does a good job tying together a bunch of anecdata to explain why independent ex-Gov. Angus King's coronation as senator has not been going as smoothly as King probably once imagined it might. With polls showing a tightening race, here's a good excerpt that really showcases King's rust:

Most recently, the campaign was criticized for editing critical statements from a 4,000-word profile of King in this week's Maine Sunday Telegram before posting it on the campaign website.

That overshadowed the campaign's attempt to seize the initiative against one of its main antagonists, the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

The campaign called a news conference Monday to announce that it would sue Maine television stations if they kept airing ads by the Republican group that attack a wind power project that King helped to develop in Roxbury.

The campaign said the ad is deceptive and contains false claims. It released a rebuttal ad featuring Roxbury residents who support the project.

Some analysts say the ad may be the strongest that King's campaign has released. But attention suddenly shifted back to King's campaign, which had to answer questions about redacting critical passages from the Maine Sunday Telegram profile.

Meanwhile, Rasmussen puts King up 45-33 over Republican Charlie Summers, with Democrat Cynthia Dill back at 14.

MO-Sen: I guess Todd Akin now feels free to say whatever he wants:

"I think we have a very clear path to victory, and apparently Claire McCaskill thinks we do, too, because she was very aggressive at the debate, which was quite different than it was when she ran against Jim Talent," Akin said. "She had a confidence and was much more ladylike (in 2006), but in the debate on Friday she came out swinging, and I think that's because she feels threatened."
That's not all, though. From a separate appearance:
"The first two minutes, wow, it's like somebody let a wildcat out of the cage," Akin told a small group of supporters and activists as his statewide bus tour stopped Wednesday evening in Rolla, a rural college town between St. Louis and Springfield. "She was just furious and attacking in every different direction, which was a little bit of a surprise to us."
Meanwhile, a new Chilenski Strategies poll (PDF) has Akin leading 48-47—exactly the same as they had it back in August. Their presidential numbers still seem a little too optimistic for Obama, though (he trails 50-44), and they also have the best numbers Dem Gov. Jay Nixon has seen in any public polling all year, a 55-38 lead over Republican Dave Spence in the MO-Gov race. So if anything, this poll might understate Akin's position.

Ads:

AZ-Sen: Majority PAC and VoteVets, utilizing an Iraq vet, hammers GOP Rep. Jeff Flake on votes he took against the troops. Size of the buy: $280K.

CT-Sen: Democrat Chris Murphy, talking directly to camera, touts his middle-class roots and then hammers Linda McMahon for supporting a tax plan that would "give[] her a $7 million tax cut."

HI-Sen: Mazie Hirono uses a clip of Republican Linda Lingle saying she's voting for Mitt Romney, while a narrator reminds viewers she's also a Romney campaign co-chair.

IN-Sen: The DSCC opens with an infamous clip of Republican Richard Mourdock saying: "To me, the highlight of politics frankly is to inflict my opinion on someone else," then goes on to hammer him for thinking that a "tea party plan to end Medicare as we know it doesn't go 'far enough.' "

MO-Sen: SEIU hits GOP Rep. Todd Akin with his "legitimate rape" quote, then goes on to blast him over a litany of insanity: believing Medicare is unconstitutional, calling student loans a "cancer," and voting against "the national sex offender registry to track pedophiles."

VA-Sen: Democrat Tim Kaine attacks George Allen for voting to partially privatize Social Security and to "cut Medicare" when he served in the Senate, and for supporting the Ryan plan now.

WI-Sen: The DSCC is hitting Republican Tommy Thompson on Medicare, though they aren't yet using his instant classic that was discovered the other day, in which he said: "Who better than me, that's already finished one of the entitlement programs, to come up with programs to do away with Medicaid and Medicare?"

Gubernatorial:

PA-Gov: Want an early look at which Democrats might take on first-term GOP Gov. Tom Corbett in 2014? The Philadelphia Daily News's Catherine Lucey does her best to track down statements from the likes of ex-Rep. Joe Sestak, state Treasurer Rob McCord, 2010 nominee Dan Onorato, Rep. Allyson Schwartz, Sen. Bob Casey, and Montgomery County Commissioner Josh Shapiro.

NH-Gov: Whoa! Just a couple of days after a poll commissioned by the New Hampshire Democratic Party showed Maggie Hassan beating Ovide Lamontagne by two points, along comes an internal from the DGA with Hassan up nine! The details on the survey, from the Feldman Group, are a little sketch (all we know about the field dates are that it was "completed within the past several days"), but they've got Hassan on top 50-41. It's a little weird when two different internals for the same side taken so close together offer such different pictures of the same race, so I'm really not sure whom to believe—but I do wonder what the GOP's response will be.

Ads:

MO-Gov: Democrat Jay Nixon hits Dave Spence on accepting (and refusing to repay) TARP funds for his failed bank once again, but ads a wrinkle: that Spence allegedly took a $1 million loan from the bank to buy a vacation home.

NC-Gov: The DGA isn't giving up on North Carolina just yet. They're hitting Republican Pat McCrory, saying that the lobbying firm is about to get a huge tax break thanks to a tax loophole—and once again mentioning (as they did in their earliest ads) that McCrory hasn't disclosed how much he's made at this gig.

NH-Gov: The DGA attacks Republican Ovide Lamontagne for promising a "radically different" policy course from retiring four-term Dem Gov. John Lynch, including a desire to "pull New Hampshire out of Medicare's basic protections."

House:

CA-07: Look out! AFSCME is evidently dead-set on making sure that GOP Rep. Dan Lungren doesn't make it back to Congress, seeing as they just dropped a mind-popping $800K on a new ad run attacking Lungren as a Wall Street lackey. If you live in the Sacramento area, be prepared to this this spot on TV a lot.

And speaking of Lungren, here's a nice little "oops":

Republican Rep. Dan Lungren distanced himself from controversial bill language involving abortion funding in cases of "forcible rape" during a Tuesday debate with 7th Congressional District rival Ami Bera, saying he told the original sponsors of House Resolution 3 that he "would not support" the proposal unless the word "forcible" was taken out.

"So in fact, if you're talking about the mistake they made, I was the one who pointed it out," Lungren said. "... I can tell you it was after I went to them and told them I couldn't support it if they didn't take the word forcible out that they changed it."

Congressional records show, however, that Lungren signed on as a cosponsor of the bill when the legislation was first introduced, before 'forcible' was deleted from the text.

CA-44: I'm a little surprised that someone would pay SurveyUSA to poll this race, but KABC thought it was a good idea, so here we are. The 44th has always seemed like the least competitive of California's big Dem-on-Dem general elections (thanks to the new top-two primary system), with Rep. Janice Hahn beating fellow Rep. Laura Richardson by about 20 points in June, and Hahn dwarfing Richardson in terms of both money and credibility. SurveyUSA finds a somewhat tighter race than the primary showed us, with Hahn leading 43-33 (and with 24% undecided). (David Jarman)

FL-02: Well whaddya know: The other day (courtesy commenter spiderdem), we noted that the DCCC had added Democrat Al Lawson to their Red to Blue list. Now, among many new ad buys, it turns out that the D-Trip is spending $61K to go up on the air against Lawson's opponent, GOP freshman Steve Southerland. I'm guessing some polling is offering hints of optimism, and national Dems have already started writing off some seats, so they need to preserve a sense that recapturing the House is still at least an outside shot. But I'm wondering about this district. Obama captured 47% here in 2008. Let's imagine he can do as well again there this cycle. That still means you need to find a few Romney-Lawson voters, and I'm just having a hard time picturing who those are.

FL-18: After two months-apart Democrats polls showed a tied game, I'd wondered why GOP Rep. Allen West hadn't responded with any numbers of his own. Well, now he has, with an internal from Public Opinion Strategies showing him up 52-41 over challenger Patrick Murphy. One big problem, though (which the Murphy campaign was quick to point out): The survey also has Romney up 51-44 over Obama, in a district Obama won 51-48 last time out. Given that most statewide polling has show the president improving his standing considerably, and doing at least as well as he did in 2008, it's hard to believe that Obama would be headed backwards in the 18th District.

FL-26: Just when you thought the Justin Lamar Sternad story couldn't get any weirder... actually, I've got a pretty open mind about the whole thing and I'm quite ready to believe it could get a lot weirder still... but in any event, just click link and watch the video. Trust me on this. The payoff is in the first five seconds. I promise. You want to see this one.

IA-04: We have not one, not two, but three new polls out in Iowa's 4th Congressional District. The first, an internal from GQR for Democrat Christie Vilsack's campaign, finds her trailing incendiary conservative Rep. Steve King by a 46-44 margin. GQR says that's down from a 55-40 King lead in the spring of 2011. (Obviously those prior numbers were never released.) In that timeframe, GQR also has King's job approvals going from 45-35 positive to 41-45 negative.

The second is from PPP (on behalf of the super PAC belonging to progressive mobile phone company CREDO) and shows an almost identical spread, with King on top 48-45. Unfortunately, neither poll release includes presidential toplines.

The third was pushback to the first pair: The conservative American Future Fund, relying on pollster American Viewpoint, finds King up 48-41 over Vilsack. Again, no presidential toplines, but regardless, I don't think these numbers are super-impressive for the incumbent. I also wasn't hugely impressed by these responses, either:

King said in a statement that the poll's results would "not diminish my commitment to go to every town and sprint to the finish line."

King campaign communications director Jimmy Centers said in a statement that "Nancy Pelosi, Christie Vilsack and their liberal allies are spending between $5 million and $10 million in negative, dishonest political ads" and still King is holding a lead.

Meanwhile, King's been successful in getting local TV stations to stop airing an ad from the Humane Society Legislative Fund that accused King of being "the only Iowa member of Congress to oppose a ban on taking children to dogfights." One station manager called the spot "patently false," but I don't see the problem with it: King did in fact vote against such an amendment, but says he did so on federalism grounds. Votes taken for allegedly "principled" reasons that have unpleasant consequences in reality have always been fair game in politics, so this smells to me.

NY-19: Could Chris Gibson be more vulnerable than he looks? Not long after the DCCC unexpectedly went on the air here, The Hotline is reporting that Karl Rove's Crossroads GPS (the "charity" arm of the Crossroads evil empire) is spending $165K on "a week's worth of broadcast television in the Albany media market."

NY-25: Siena's tour around New York's competitive congressional districts continues with Monroe County's 25th CD—and brings some good new for veteran Dem Rep. Louise Slaughter. She has a solid 52-42 lead over Maggie Brooks, considered a top GOP recruit, particularly since this seat became considerably redder in redistricting. The Obama-Romney numbers are fairly similar as well, with the POTUS on top 53-39, and if anything, that's a bit pessimistic, seeing as Obama won 59-40 here in 2008.

What's more, Slaughter's favorables are good (59-36); Brooks' are pretty good, too (51-42), but she doesn't have much room to grow. Slaughter's re-elects stand at 50-44, and the generic congressional ballot is 53-41 in favor of Dems. All in all, this is very good news, considering that Slaughter currently represents only 38% of the redrawn 25th. And Brooks' response to the poll is seriously lame-o:

A poll represents only one snapshot in time, and with our fact-based ad campaign just now kicking into high gear, Mrs. Slaughter would be wise not to spike the ball at the 50 yard line. Once voters get to know more about her record of voting to hike income, marriage, and energy taxes on the middle class, it will be County Executive Brooks, joined by taxpayers from across our community, who are ultimately celebrating victory on Election Day.
PA-08: Quite a few Republicans have moved to defend Mitt Romney over his notorious "47%" remarks, and I haven't tried to catalog them all, but GOP Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick's recent comments really stood out to me as particularly obnoxious:
"One of the principles is that we need to support people who have a history and know what it is like to sign the front of a paycheck, not the back of a paycheck," Fitzpatrick says in the recording. "The front of a paycheck also includes you took a risk and you build a business on your own—without the federal government standing next to you as you're signing a personal guarantee. It's just you and your wife and your banker; you know that's it."

The crowd laughs as Fitzpatrick says "not the back of the paycheck."

P.S. Hey, NRCC, 1995 called and it wants its bogeyman back. Seriously, national Republicans are launching robocalls against Democrat Kathy Boockvar over... Mumia Abu-Jamal, the convicted cop-killer. PoliticsPA does a good job ripping apart the bogus claims made in the call—all of which have to do with Boockvar's husband (who had some involvement in the case as an attorney), not Boockvar herself.

PA-12: You can view it both as pushback against GOP polling and perhaps an explanation for why the DCCC is "trimming" its ad buy in Pennsylvania's 12th: Their new survey from Anzalone Liszt puts Dem Rep. Mark Critz up a very hale 52-41 over Keith Rothfus, just a touch better than his 50-40 showing in August. (A recent Rothfus/NRCC internal had the race tied at 38.) Barack Obama's also doing surprisingly well, trailing Mitt Romney just 51-46 (up from 51-42 last time)—notably tighter that his nine-point loss four years ago, particularly since this area of Pennsylvania is trending away from national Democrats. But maybe not just yet: The memo insists that this shift "mirrors the statewide public polling movement since August."

As for that ad spending, it's trickier this cycle than ever before to make judgments based on such movements, since other third-party groups, like House Majority PAC, SEIU, and AFSCME have stepped into the breach in many cases. Indeed, that's what appears to be happening here, with the D-Trip slicing back on a reported $180K in airtime, but with various allies still going strong. (And even the DCCC isn't going dark.) So the race may still very well be a tossup—it could just be that DC Dems are hoping for another organization to pick up the laboring oar.

WA-01: We're just full of "uh, wow" quotes from Republicans in today's Digest:

In a live webcast of the Seattle Times editorial board meeting... Republican U.S. 1st District Congressional candidate John Koster doubled down on his unfortunate suggestion that immigrant farm workers should, like cattle, be tagged with bar codes to make sure they aren't working illegally or sneaking away from the fields ("If we can track cattle with chips, we can certainly provide a way for citizens to go through a process to be legal in this country"), arguing again that immigrant workers should be equipped with electronic bar codes that farmers could scan with their smartphones to make sure they're in the country legally.
WI-07: The CREDO super PAC actually had a second new poll on Thursday (see IA-04 item above), also from PPP. In Wisconsin's 7th Congressional District, they find Democratic challenger Pat Kreitlow challenging GOP freshman Sean Duffy 48-44. Duffy's favorables are just under water at 42-44, and his re-elects are 46-47. That means a tiny chunk of people who want someone else to represent this seat are still saying they'll pull the lever for the incumbent. Duffy's been advertising more heavily so far, so if Kreitlow can match him on the airwaves, he could make up that gap in polling.

Ads:

AZ-09: Presumably pushing back against a negative ad featuring her quote calling stay-at-home moms "leeches," Democrat Kyrsten Sinema features a bunch of young women (some with babies in their arms) praising her efforts to look out for their interests, including protecting "breastfeeding mothers like us from indecent exposure laws."

CA-24: Republican Abel Maldonado deploys some very vague attacks on Lois Capps (she's been in Washington 14 years).

CT-04: A narrator cites a USA Today story calling Democrat Jim Himes "brave" for supporting some bipartisan budget—then Himes himself says that "tackling our nation's budget issues isn't brave." Zuh?

FL-18: Right-win super PAC Treasure Coast Jobs Coalition attacks Democrat Patrick Murphy for supporting the stimulus, and (total bullshit) "million-dollar bonuses for insurance executives." That bogus claim has been debunked many times. Ah, politics.

IL-08: Over eye-catching footage of Democrat Tammy Duckworth, a double amputee, riding a hand bike, a narrator says she will always go the "extra mile."

IN-08: GOP Rep. Larry Bucshon tells a bunch of lies about the Affordable Care Act, then mentions a company which claimed it would halt expansion plans because of a new tax on medical devices. (That's apparently a bunch of bogus whining, too.)

NC-07: The YG Action Fund attacks Dem Rep. Mike McIntyre for allegedly going on foreign trips on the taxpayer dime.

NV-04: Democrat Steven Horsford goes compare-and-contrast, touting his work to prevent education cuts vs. Danny Tarkanian's "extreme tea party agenda."

NY-21: A good spot from Dem Rep. Bill Owens, summarizing "The Matt Doheny story: a tale of four islands." In brief: Doheny was a Wall Street vulture capitalist who then worked for a company "that used the Cayman Islands to avoid paying taxes" and finally bought a pair of private islands to carpetbag into the district.

NY-25: Maggie Brooks attacks Dem Rep. Louise Slaughter for allegedly raising taxes and voting to raise her own pay.

OH-06: In a weirdly edited spot that seems to mimic a very bad action movie trailer, GOP Rep. Bill Johnson says he "answered the call" to deal with America's foreign threats (as a "young farmboy") in the 1970s, joining the Air Force. Fast-forwarding to recent times, Johnson ran for office because he "saw new threats"—apparently comparing Barack Obama and ex-Rep. Charlie Wilson (the man he's facing in a rematch) to the Soviet generals who appear on-screen in the opening moments of the ad. A second spot tells lies about Wilson cutting Medicare, then features Johnson's mom, GOP playbook-style, saying she knows she can trust her son to protect the program

OH-16: A comely "flight attendant" for "Outsourcing Air" mocks GOP Rep. Jim Renacci for helping to ship jobs overseas in this AFSCME spot.

PA-12: Keith Rothfus features a bobble-head doll version of Dem Rep. Mark Critz (I suppose) and accuses him of blindly following Obama.

TX-23: The LCV goes for an Old West theme, claiming that GOP Rep. Quico Canseco "voted to cut investments in clean energy, like wind and solar that could create good-paying Texas jobs."

VA-02: On behalf of Democrat Paul Hirschbiel, a young woman attacks GOP Rep. Scott Rigell as a foot soldier in the war on women.

WI-07: Democrat Pat Kreitlow keeps up with his amusing "I'm not a lumberjack" series of ads, illustrating how the Ryan plan (supported by GOP Rep. Sean Duffy) would cut Medicare benefits to pay for tax breaks for the wealthy by having a pair of actual lumberjacks re-stack a bunch of logs in real-life bar-chart fashion.

Other Races:

San Diego Mayor: This year's mayoral contest in San Diego is one of the most heavily-polled municipal-level races I've seen, but if the good news keeps coming, I'll take it. SurveyUSA has yet another poll of the race, and they find Democratic U.S. Rep. Bob Filner beating Republican city councilor Carl DeMaio in the ostensibly nonpartisan race 50-38. That's another steady improvement in a race Filner was once losing; he led 47-41 last month. San Diego city hall is one nut the Democrats have had a hard time cracking despite being blue at the presidential and even state level—outgoing mayor Jerry Sanders, for instance, just passed the endorsement torch to DeMaio—but it's looking like they might just do it this time. (David Jarman)

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Hey! Lay off criticising Lina M. Running for (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Delevie, bear83

    office is difficult. Stop it! It's hard!

    Btw, I've thought for a while Allyson Schwartz would be a good state wide democratic candidate (governor or ag), able to draw on se Pa. and moderate/liberal women (like Ed Rendell). She's also my sometimes U.S. rep (the way Republicans keep twisting lower Montgomery County it's hard to keep track). The 2000-2010 map almost needed a magnifying glass street by street to figure out what district you were in in one swath. And of course several districts this go round (east and west Pa.) are darkly hilarious.

    "A young man who wishes to remain a sound Atheist cannot be too careful of his reading. There are traps everywhere ". C. S. Lewis

    by TofG on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 05:17:28 AM PDT

    •  PA has never had a female Governor and it is past (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Woody

      due. I would love for Allyson to run for Governor.

      Right now, Rendell is hated in a lot of circles. I have even talked to several Republicans who hate him for what they see as his coverup of the scandal at Penn State.  He could have arrested Sandusky 2 years before he did but he did not want to lose the votes of alums and coaches of Penn State. That is widely held view.

      And then afterwards , he bragged he was the one who got the ball rolling and fired Joe and the rest. He took credit for what others did . He stalled for 2 years and more kids were raped while he campaigned.

      Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

      by wishingwell on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 05:48:27 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  RAND tracker shows Romney improving today (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    after a terrible run since early last week. Still 50-43 overall though.

    •  There goes our landslide :( (0+ / 0-)

      On the other hand, there really was nowhere else to go for him but up. Can't say I wasn't hoping he just kept dropping like a rock though.

      "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

      by xsonogall on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 08:03:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Guess who has MI Pres: Obama 50-46? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, itskevin

    Yes, it's our good friends from Gravis. Didn't think their Dem-friendly polling would last long (after yesterday's large Obama lead in WA).

    The lead in MI contracts from 12 points to 4 when they apply their Likely Voter screen, which entirely coincidentally also reduces the black share of the sample to 7% from 12, and boosts the white share to 87%.

    Exit poll breakdown last time: white 82%, black 12% (and the white share of the underlying population has shrunk a further 2% in the past 4 years according to census data).

  •  MO-Sen (10+ / 0-)

    Watching Morning Joe and Sen. McClaskill said she would welcome both President Clinton AND President Obama to campaign with her. Interesting.

    •  Sam Graves (?) I think his name was, obviously (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Christopher Walker

      wanted her to say she'd prefer Clinton campaign for her and Obama stay away from Missouri because Clinton is seen in higher regard right now.  She played it smart though.  

      •  At this point (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        xsonogall

        bringing Obama to Missouri really won't threaten her.  He isn't likely to lose the state by much more than a few percent anyway, this isn't Nebraska.  People really overestimated how much of a drag the president would be in a state that should return a fairly close victory for Romney.

    •  I like that (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Woody

      She was an early Obama supporter.  Granted it has hurt her in the state, but I guess she must be seeing some REALLY good internals to say something like that.  The anvil has started dropping on Akin, so maybe she feels like there is some breathing room now?

      27, male, gay, living and voting in IN-7. Joe Donnelly for Senate and John Gregg for Governor!

      by IndyLiberal on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 07:21:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  or (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        xsonogall, jj32, jncca

        Maybe she has some convictions.  Maybe not a 100% independent acting Senator, but maybe she actually believes in Obama as President.  Certainly moreso than a Joe Manchin does (though what is that really saying).

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 07:27:16 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah Joe Manchin is basically just a number... (0+ / 0-)

          ...to keep us in the majority. I honestly don't care too much about how he votes; he'll likely vote with the GOP a lot and help them obstruct a few bills, but realistically speaking I'd prefer him to a solid R vote that would hand the majority to McConnell.

          Stuff I learned after 2010.

          "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

          by xsonogall on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 08:08:15 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Chilenski MO poll (0+ / 0-)

    Why do you feel that Obama trailing 44-50 is a little too optimistic? Nate Silver currently has him losing only 43.7:49 under his "Now-Cast" scenario.

    The most dangerous worldview is the worldview of those who never viewed the world - Alexander von Humboldt

    by germanliberal on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 05:33:03 AM PDT

  •  PA Voter ID-judge likely to uphold it-FLA 2000? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jakewaters

    According to this morning's Philadelphia Inquirer, the judge is likely to uphold the PA Voter ID law for the November election.  He may modify the part of the law that permits every voter without an acceptable picture ID to cast a provisional ballot (provisional on then producing a valid ID within 6 calendar days - failure to do so resulting in the voter's ballot being thrown out).
    www.philly.com

    This has the potential of another Florida 2000 "run out the clock" judicial mess.  If the PA vote shows Romney leading but there are 400,000 provisional ballots throughout the state (mostly in pro-Obama counties/ cities, incl Philadelphia and Pittsburgh), PA will be "too close to call" and there will be court filings to attempt to get an extension of the 6-day limit.  The 6 days include weekends when the county elections offices and PennDOT offices are closed - so will really be 4 days (with no increased staff or longer hours at the PennDOT offices) for state and county workers to issue new photo IDs to the 400,000 provisional voters - an impossibility.  GOP will delay things in federal courts a la Florida 2000. The Republican-majority U.$. $upreme Court may again get to select the U.S. president.

    This judge's decision (due not later than Tues., 10/2 but he said he hopes to issue an opinion earlier than that deadline), will be appealed to the state Supreme Court - split 3 to 3 between judges elected as Republicans and judges elected as Democrats (because the 7th judge, a Republican is awaiting trial on criminal corruption charges.  A tie - 3-3 vote by the state Supreme Court would uphold whatever decision the Commonwealth court judge makes in the next few days.

    Those county elections offices that would have to accept (or not) the followup Voter ID info tendered by the 400,000 voters who cast provisional ballots on Nov. 6 within 6 days are partisan-controlled offices.  Some county offices are controlled by the Dems but most are controlled by the Republicans - setting up significant risks of shenanigans and "judgment calls" to allow some provisional ballots and reject others, disputes that may not be sorted out prior to the date the Electoral College meets - potentially a GOP "run out the clock" scenario just like the Florida 2000 GOP U.$. $upreme Court selection of the U.S. president.

    •  Doubt it will matter in the end (5+ / 0-)

      Obama won the state by 600,000 and probably will again.

      The Sup. Ct. sent it back on a 4-2 vote, so they may not accept the judge's findings.

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 05:47:20 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Provisional ballots are a real non-starter since (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        they don't address the disenfranchisement of those who didn't go to the polls because dearest PENNDOTTIE's hasn't provided them with IDs yet.  With only 11K issued so far what can Homer Simpson be thinking?

        Not to mention the clusterfuck that tons of provisional ballots will cause at local polling places and county elections boards as they try to figure out WTF for days.  

        The workers aren't trained, the stakes are too high in a Presidential election year.

        I say lets's move up the vote for Governor to next year and make it the first trial run of the new system.  

        Think we'd hear the Commonwealth's Fraud-averse defenders of Voter IDs whistling a different tune?

        "I'll press your flesh, you dimwitted sumbitch! " -Pappy O'Daniel

        by jakewaters on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 06:04:24 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  It wasn't really a 4-2 (5+ / 0-)

        All six agreed on the need for further proceedings; the two dissenters would have tossed Voter ID for this election on the spot.

    •  Despite all of this and granted it is horrible (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bear83, LordMike, Woody

      and disgusting and just plain awful, I would be shocked if Mitt won PA or even came close.  He is not even running ads in PA and neither are his super pacs or Karl Rove groups.  We only see a couple of Obama ads, that is it. We are not getting ads at all for President . That stopped a month ago. It has been pleasant and quite different.

      We are working hard registering voters, doing GOTV, and helping people get Photo IDs and even giving them rides to the DMV.

      We are working hard assuming this law stands just to be sure. OFA has this well covered and they are very aware of it.  

      We are acting like the law will stand and helping people get Photo IDs.

      Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

      by wishingwell on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 05:56:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  That's terrible news (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      WTF is wrong with that judge? 6 days?? That's gonna make a difference? This is a fucking joke right?

      "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

      by xsonogall on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 06:02:33 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  the 6 day limit to "prove" that a provisional (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        ballot is valid - the proof being that the voter has to obtain a valid Voter ID in the 4 days after the election that the voter could not obtain in the 40 days before the election (statute says 6 days, but I use 4 because 2 days will be Saturday and Sunday when govt PennDOT offices are closed) is in the statute itself.  Not sure how many provisional ballots PA typically encounters, perhaps a few thousand statewide.  This election could mean hundreds of times that many ( x00,000) , for elections officials not familiar with them.  Judges in PA are elected by party and then a general election and then every 10 years come up for a yes or no vote to retain them.  The tea party Republicans are already putting political pressure on the Commonwealth Court judge who has to make the initial decision in the next few days and on the 6 members of the PA Supreme Court who will hear the appeal - if any judge fails to uphold the Republican Voter ID law, conservative and tea party Republicans will target those judges in their next retention elections.  A Democratic state Supreme Court judge was voted off the Supreme Court a few years ago through a similar Republican effort.

        •  That's disturbing (0+ / 0-)

          Really sounds like this law is here to stay unless judges have an epiphany or grow some balls. I worry this puts PA in play after all. I know Obama's supposed to be comfortably ahead but who knows what shenanigans they will pull.

          "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

          by xsonogall on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 06:58:24 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  no, "six days" is what the law currently says (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, DCCyclone, VClib

        If you show up without an ID, you vote provisionally and have six days to verify your identity.

        •  So that's the part the judge is wrestling with? (0+ / 0-)

          At this point shouldn't it just have to wait until after the election to get this law straight? I mean, if you care about democracy and all. Which the GOP obviously doesn't.

          "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

          by xsonogall on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 06:59:46 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  according to reports ... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike, xsonogall

            ... he's considering a ruling which would ask folks to show IDs, send those without IDs to provisional ballots, but require all such provisionals to be counted.

            •  The judge (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              xsonogall

              Seems to have already tipped his hand about his personal feelings about the law, but he now seems to be threading the needle between upholding a law he feels in legal and dealing with the obvious flaws in implementation that the Supreme Court saw.

              I wish I could understand why delaying a law's implementation would weaken it so much that he doesn't see that as the obvious solution, but alas I can't read people's minds.

              On the plus side, I enjoy not having Orie-Melvin on the Supreme Court in these cases, not that it helps, but what a corrupt family.

              "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

              by rdw72777 on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 07:24:05 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  You can't thread the needle on the solution... (0+ / 0-)

                ...if the other side's objective is to suppress the vote for THIS election. If the judge is going to order all provisionals be counted, then there's no point to the voter ID for this election.

                Grow some balls and do what's right, judge.

                "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

                by xsonogall on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 07:37:12 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Well (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  xsonogall

                  the other side is now fighting the battle it seems on principle.  The electoral impact just seems so minimal in 2012.  There can be no doubt that Obama and casey win PA.  I'd imagine the only seats in play in the house are PA-12 and PA-08, and I doubt voter ID will truly impact those.  

                  I still think Kane has a very good shot at AG (then again i thought Murphy would win the primary so what do I know).

                  I think the GOP knows this law just won't give them much in 2012.  I'm kind of surprised they are still fighting it.  

                  It would be interesting if Corbett came out and said he'd like to see it postponed, I wonder how that would go over.

                  "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                  by rdw72777 on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 07:51:39 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Can you explain to me "minimal" impact? (0+ / 0-)

                    I've heard people say its just not enough to impact the race. I've also heard this law could disenfranchise close to a million voters. So at its worst, including a potential for a late Romney surge, people are saying this wont matter so much?

                    "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

                    by xsonogall on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 07:58:13 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  A million voters? (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      xsonogall

                      Good lord that sounds way too high.  

                      While I don't pretend to defend the law, sometimes the simple math bothers me.  I think the real number of voter registration greater than PENNDOT ID's was like 750K, which was done with computer matching.  I don't know they did it in aggregate or compared names, the latter of which would lead to a bigger discrepancy i'd guess.

                      As for the 750K, give PA voter turnout of around 60%, assume those without ID's turnout at the same percent, you get 450K actual voters.  

                      From there assume a breakdown of 80% Dems and 20% GOP for the 450K voters, which would be 360K Dems and 90K GOPers, for a net voter loss to Dems of 270K.  I expect Obama and Casey to win by bigger than these margins.

                      Then I think about the other forms of ID, particularly govt issued ID"s and the high number of govt workers in the state who might not have need for driver licenses (particularly in Philly and Pittsburgh) that the original 750K figure doesn't account for.  This group, albeit small compared to 750K, probably skews Dem in Philly/Pittsburgh, but GOP in many other places.

                      In the end we won't know until election day the true impact, and my guess is electiond ay 2014.  I don't see much chance the law is fully implemented in 2012.  I think AdamB's suggestion that those without ID's get provisional ballots which are then counted anyways is a possible scenario, though up until yesterday I was hedging on a full injunction.

                      It's just a stupid law rushed into effect and changed too many times this summer for anyone to fully understand how to deal with.

                      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                      by rdw72777 on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 08:16:09 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                •  Well, it becomes a practice run. (0+ / 0-)

                  And as a campaign, you want folks voting on machines, not provisionals, so they'll still try hard to get everyone IDs.

                  •  The irony is (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    Adam B

                    That the primary was supposed to be the trial run.  i think the GOP thought it went so smoothly that they let their guard down.  

                    Kind of silly they didn't do some fairly meaningless stuff like fund open Saturday's at select DOT offices, provide mobile offices in areas far from DOT offices, nail down the whole proof of ID requirement earlier, etc.  had they made any effort at all, they probably would have skated by for 2012.

                    Their rush job shows their intent more than any "protect the vote" crap.  It's good when greedy stupid people get their comeuppance, which I hope they do next week when an injunction is issued.

                    "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                    by rdw72777 on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 08:41:06 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

    •  As I understand it... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, DCCyclone

      ... it would effectively make the ID optional by requiring all provisionals to be counted, and not just those for which the voter produced an ID within six subsequent days (or the appropriate affidavit).

    •  Yeah but the Supreme Court... (0+ / 0-)

      ...clearly from their tone does not want this law to happen this election. Even the dissenting judges seemed to show some discomfort.

      2012: It's about the Supreme Court. Follow me on Twitter @farrellmcmanus

      by HarlemUSA on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 06:30:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  They (Rethugs and their Super Pacs) (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Woody

    have ramped up the number and frequency of their
    anti - Obama ads here in northeast Ohio. I counted 5
    in a row, one after the other, last night. Then they repeat during the evening.
    There is also an increase in anti - Sherrod Brown and Betty Sutton ads.
    They aren't gving up on OH yet.

    "The past is never dead. It's not even past". Faulkner.

    by mchestnutjr on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 05:39:36 AM PDT

    •  They never will (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Woody

      And it would be suicidal on their part to do so, whatever Rove might want to spout about Romney having 11 routes to 270 without Ohio.

      However, you have to imagine at this stage that it will be increasingly difficult for ads to make a difference in states that have already been bombarded with them. Diminishing marginal utility and all that. Debates, economics, and finally groundgame are probably worth much more now.

    •  Thank god they gave up PA, it has been nice (0+ / 0-)

      to not have these ads. ..very different and very nice.

      Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

      by wishingwell on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 05:57:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  i hope this info puts (8+ / 0-)

    a sunset on mcmahons run for the senate.

  •  I hope this puts the nail in (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jakewaters, LordMike, pademocrat, Woody

    Linda McMahon's coffin.

    And I just have to say I LOVE Bob Filner. My county had many years of Republican congressmen ignoring us and only concerning themselves with the wealthier parts of the district. And then we got re-districted into Bob's district in 2000 and suddenly we mattered again. He was outstanding and it's a real shame that we're probably going to get a Conservadem in his place. Lucky San Diego!

    •  McMahon hits granny with a chair then does a (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      body slam but her sponsors love it.

      Hope she'll be spitting bloody chicklets in November, maybe the money she gets from the tooth fairy will help with the back taxes.

      "I'll press your flesh, you dimwitted sumbitch! " -Pappy O'Daniel

      by jakewaters on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 05:54:42 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Clintonian response? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    fearlessfred14

    Clintonian as a pejorative, eh?

    As I recall, Clinton had more political savvy in his little finger than the entire Obama administration. Oh -- and he actually understood the importance of a strong economy with people working.

    I imagine there's a reason why the President campaigns against a return to the Bush years.  It's because he can't figure out how to bring back the Clinton years.

    LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

    by dinotrac on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 05:53:01 AM PDT

    •  We really don't want to start down this road...nt (7+ / 0-)
      •  That's fine, but it makes no sense to diss (0+ / 0-)

        the last US President with a vibrant economy.

        LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

        by dinotrac on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 06:13:01 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Obama has his criticisms, so does Clinton (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          The Caped Composer

          The economy isn't the only means to gauge the success of a president.  Funny how people can jump to Republican talking points when it serves them, like Rahm Emmanuel when he was faced with the teachers union strike...

          •  Umm...when the biggest problem facing the (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Woody, fearlessfred14

            country is the economy -- unemployment in particular, failing to address it is more than a niggle.

            LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

            by dinotrac on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 06:25:41 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Can't imagine where that word came from can you?NT (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              DCCyclone, The Caped Composer
              •  I don't know what you're talking about... (0+ / 0-)

                Do you?

                LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

                by dinotrac on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 06:43:53 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Quit playing dumb (0+ / 0-)

                  How many words do you know start with n i g g?  Look it up.

                  •  English a second language? (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    Woody

                    Perhaps you should make an effort to look up the etymology before telling me to do so.

                    LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

                    by dinotrac on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 07:27:50 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Yes, i see 'unknown source' whereas the other word (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      The Caped Composer

                      has an earlier start date slapped on it, so to say it's completely in the clear seems folly.   Again, it was nice how you dodged the whole, dropping Republican talking points thing.  Oh and I forgot to ask, how many housing crisis/auto industries going bankrupt during the Clinton administration?  I know he had a lot of those to overcome in his economy building right?

                      •  Well (2+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        dinotrac, jncca

                        You did make this thread into a race issue with your comment on the the source of the word niggle.  

                        Not surprising that's why it went downhill from there, is it?

                        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                        by rdw72777 on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 08:00:32 AM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                      •  Obama has faced a much tougher task than (0+ / 0-)

                        Clinton did, no doubt about it.

                        FDR would be a better comparison, but Obama falls short there, too. FDR was blocked by Republicans in the Senate throughout his first two years.  However -- and this is Obama's key failing  -- FDR kept throwing bills against the wall and communicating effectively to the public that their needs were his top priority.

                        Obama and the Democrats managed something mighty in passing the ACA, bad as it may be, but they appeared to be looking the other way on the employment front.

                        LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

                        by dinotrac on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 08:23:59 AM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                  •  You owe an apology to dinotrac (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    condorcet, fearlessfred14, jncca

                    Calling someone racist in their choice of words because they disagreed with your comment is simply wrong. You have embarrassed yourself here.

                    'Niggle' is a perfectly good English language word. And no reason to believe that it is related to the Latin word for 'black'.

                    nig·gle  

                    intr.v.
                    nig·gled, nig·gling, nig·gles
                    To be preoccupied with trifles or petty details.
                    To find fault constantly and trivially; carp.
                    See Synonyms at quibble.
                    ETYMOLOGY:
                    Perhaps of Scandinavian origin

                    American Heritage Dictionary online

                    Word Origin & History

                    niggle
                    1599 (implied in niggling), possibly from a Scand. source (cf. Norw. dial. nigla "be busy with trifles"), perhaps related to source of niggard.
                    Online Etymology Dictionary, © 2010 Douglas Harper
                    Cite This Source

                    Niggle [ˈnɪgəl]
                    vb
                    1. (intr) to find fault continually
                    2. (intr) to be preoccupied with details; fuss
                    3. (tr) to irritate; worry
                    n
                    1. a slight or trivial objection or complaint
                    2. a slight feeling as of misgiving, uncertainty, etc.
                    [from Scandinavian; related to Norwegian nigla. Compare niggard]
                    niggler  n
                    niggly  adj
                    Collins English Dictionary – Complete and Unabridged © HarperCollins Publishers
              •  dinotrac is in the clear (5+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                dinotrac, redrose, Woody, condorcet, jncca

                The word "niggle", like the word "niggardly", is entirely unrelated to a similar sounding but highly offensive word.

                Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

                by fearlessfred14 on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 07:05:24 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

    •  Bill Clinton did nothing to end his recession (9+ / 0-)

      The recession he inherited, he pushed a $16B stimulus and his own Democratic Congress killed it.  Then the economy recovered on its own, with Bill doing nothing.

      His deficit reduction package helped going forward, but the economy would've been good even without it.

      Meanwhile, Bill's "political savvy" handed the GOP both chambers of Congress, caused reporters to ask Bill to his face whether he was still even relevant, and then led to an extramarital affair in the White House that led to his impeachment that defined his second term.

      You bring a lot of euphoric recall to the table, dinotrac, but not much reality.

      I'll take Obama's more effective and stable leadership in what have been much tougher times anyday.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 07:01:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Ah, one gets dizzy from the spin. (0+ / 0-)

        Never mind that President Obama started with Democrats in control of both houses of Congress, but...

        Last I looked, the present administration pushed an $800 billion plus pork pie labelled a stimulus bill, then promptly watched "official" unemployment climb by nearly 2 percentage points as it washed it's hands of the jobless and moved on to more important things.

        Not only is the current official rate higher than the disastrous unemployment at the end of the Bush presidency, but the true unemployment is far worse -- with long-time unemployment at or near the highest levels ever recorded.

        If that's the difference between doing something and doing nothing, doing nothing sounds pretty good.

        LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

        by dinotrac on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 07:34:54 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Let's drop this line of comments (0+ / 0-)

          The better comparison is between the Democrats record on the economy vs the Repubs'.

          Both Clinton and Obama disappointed us in various ways. Both are so much better than any Repub since Eisenhower back in the 1950s that there's no point in niggling over the difference between Bill and Barack.

      •  Wow, even with a mandate (0+ / 0-)

        Clinton lost a relatively modest stimulus proposal?  Oof.  Makes the ARRA look like the New Deal 2.0 in comparison.

        Hail to the king, baby.

        by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 08:32:08 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  i don't know why so many americans think (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera

      presidents basically control the economy, (other than the cult of the presidency).  recession had ended or was very near its end when clinton was elected, and the '90s economy would have been strong regardless of who was president.  it was partly a bubble economy, and there was not nearly as much foreign competition.  it could be very roughly compared to the post WW2 economy.

      i think hoover very probably understood the importance of a strong economy more than eisenhower, but eisenhower happened to be president in far more favorable times.  92/93 economy is not comparable at all to 08/09 economy.  current economy would be weak no matter who was president.

      it is sort of funny in hindsight, but if the early '90s recession had ended 6 months earlier, bush 41 would probably now be remembered as a great president.

      ::

      clinton is certainly a great politician, but i have long thought clinton's political skills are overrated.  he made many mistakes (health care, gays in military, AG nominees, various scandals, somalia, rwanda, etc) and even in a much better economy, lost a huge number of seats to lose both houses of congress (1995 became the 1st time in 40 years R's controlled the house of representatives.)

      i think clinton's scandals also have to take a good share of blame for GWB becoming president in 2001.

      there were obviously many factors besides clinton in '94 midterms and 2000 election, such as the continuing rise of the religious right and the latter stages of the realignment of southern conservatives into the R party.  the demographic changes of the last 20 years (growing minority population, power of religious right, shift of non-college whites to R's, etc) may mean it is easier for obama.

      i will say, though, that obama had a superior congress to clinton, even despite the constant filibusters and unprecedented opposition from R's in last few years, and that is the biggest reason why he has accomplished more than clinton did.

      in comparison to D's of '93/'94, i think D's under pelosi were more ideologically consistent, and probably more unified b/c of the nature of the crises and b/c of general unpopularity of GWB.

  •  Re: Fl-02 (4+ / 0-)

    Al Lawson was a popular state senator who was term limited.  He is also a native of the area.  Still, I am somewhat surprised by this ad buy because outside Tallahassee proper, this district is very red and Steve Southerland who is the current Rep. is a Tea Party Republican.  

    "Growing up is for those who don't have the guts not to. Grow wise, grow loving, grow compassionate, but why grow up?" - Fiddlegirl

    by gulfgal98 on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 05:57:53 AM PDT

    •  Maybe GG but it could be that (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, Woody, gulfgal98

      as Republican excitement for Romney goes down, Tally turnout becomes a bigger threat. Steve-it's-tough-on-174K doesn't have many admirers on my side of the district and Lawson may be quite acceptable to moderate Rs.

      I love George Takei for being aware and honest and sharing. And "the best damn pilot in the universe."

      by PHScott on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 06:16:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  District isn't that red anymore (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Woody, Christopher Walker

      post-redistricting, Alex Sink and a number of other losing statewide Democrats actually won the district.  Obama only came up 5 points short.  If Lawson can just get a handful of the conservadems that Allen Boyd used to have locked down, then this is a real race.

      •  FL-02 well worth fighting for (0+ / 0-)

        We have to find a way to contest every seat in the former Confederacy. Conceding those 11 states (and the Confederate sympathizers in the Border States of Kentucky, Missouri, and Oklahoma) makes winning control of Congress a hill too steep to climb.

        If this district was down Obama by only 5% in 2008 (Wikipedia says Cook's PVI is only R+ 4), it's well worth a fight.

        Isn't that shorefront strip from Panama City to the edge of Ft Walton Beach filled with retirees? The "Medicare Medicare Medicare" issues, as Nancy Pelosi listed them, should be winners for us here.

        Rmoney's campaign is imploding nationwide, and the overall polling trend in FL is running our direction. So go for it.

  •  Older people know well what "sunset years" means (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bear83, LordMike, DCCyclone, Woody

    It's the one legislative term that needs no explanation for them.

  •  gibson can be beat in ny 19 but it will take money (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Woody

    it has been good to see some strong ads recently on the local tv stations putting gibson together with ryan and the rest of the wing nuts who want to kill social security and medicare....and finally our democratic candidate has signs up on the east side of the hudson river. but make no mistake, gibson is a strong candidate, well funded and sophisticated in presenting a persona that doesn't match his real ideological positions. beating him would be sweet indeed as was beating sweeney some years ago with gillibrand.

    •  Well (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera

      If Gibson gets arrested for assaulting his wife or shows up drunk at a frat party then we have a better shot, so far Gibson has shown none of that self-destructiveness.

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 07:12:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  signing on ryan's plan to kill social security, (0+ / 0-)

        gut medicare, and give tax breaks to the rich could be more damaging than getting a few dwi's and trying to get the troopers to bury your domestic violence problems...but only if the voters are pounded with his vote history which takes $$$

        •  No (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          fearlessfred14, jncca

          DWI's and wife-beating trumps tax breaks/deicare/social security...always.  

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 08:03:08 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  how about if i raise you a war with iran? n/t (0+ / 0-)
            •  Nope (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              jncca

              Put it this way.  Rate the race as it stands today, and then tell how you'd rate the race if Gibson got a DWI next week and the week after that reports of his prior spousal abuse were to be released.  

              The picture changes quite demonstrably.

              "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

              by rdw72777 on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 08:37:20 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  not sure why this discussion is going no between (0+ / 0-)

                us. i will cry uncle if that helps. murphy was up in this district by 10 points or so and then faded fast which i think was due to rnc money, tea party madness and gibsons smart stroking of hunt and fish clubs and so forth. i hope this guy julian can do the same to gibson as right now according to siena he is behind by over ten points. they refuse to let me phone bank from home for them and want me to drive 25 miles to hudson to do so which is weird as i phone banked from home for both gillibrand and murphy when they were running for the seat....so i am phone banking for elizabeth murphy.....so it goes....be well

              •  great letter in local paper re gibson/julian fyi; (0+ / 0-)


                September 28, 2012
                Gibson doesn't understand constituents

                -- The Daily Star

                Gibson doesn’t understand constituents

                In response to the letters extolling Representative Chris Gibson, I would like to express my respect and appreciation for his exemplary military career in the service of his country. However, his experience is in no way related to the needs and concerns of his constituents.

                Since his teenage years, he has been paid, fed, clothed, insured and supported by the U.S. government. He simply does not think and feel like the vast majority of his constituents. He has voted against every bill concerned with a woman’s rights to equal pay and her control over her health and body. Some of his stated proposals are nothing short of ludicrous, i.e., a string of nuclear power plants down the Hudson River and having the unemployed come work for our farmers, who can’t even support their own children.

                This November, vote for Julian Schreibman for Congress. Julian’s record is just as impressive and more related to the position of congressman. Julian Schreibman was raised in Kingston, first in his family to go to college, a graduate of Yale and Yale Law School (working throughout to help cover expenses). Julian served as a federal prosecutor in Manhattan, as an assistant general counsel of the CIA, and received the attorney general’s Distinguished Service Award for the prosecution of four al-Qaida members for bombing U.S. embassies. He returned home and served as senior assistant district attorney for Ulster County. He and his wife, Shannon, have three sons. I strongly urge you to vote for the man who will truly represent you in Congress, Julian Schreibman.

  •  Obama campaign has registered more new voters (12+ / 0-)

    in North Carolina than in any other state:

    to the tune of more than 250,000 new registered voters in North Carolina since April 2011, according to Obama's team. That's more new voters than the campaign has registered anywhere else in the country.
    http://www.newser.com/...

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 06:10:25 AM PDT

  •  NC-7 Ads hammering McIntire are running constantly (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Woody

    on local Raleigh TV stations. You would think Mike McIntire was Nancy Pelosi's favorite bobblehead doll, rather than the blue dog that he is, based on the constant ads. Since he voted for Speaker Pelosi, he's responsible for everything from the stimulus to Obamacare, per these ads.

    I haven't seen any ads touting why someone should vote for his GOP opponent. They only seem interested in driving up McIntire's negatives by tying him to Pelosi and President Obama.

    NC-4 (soon to be NC-6) Obama/Biden 2012

    by bear83 on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 06:17:24 AM PDT

    •  If Obama carries the district ... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bear83

      With any luck, the whole point of those ads will be lost, and all that ad money wasted.

      But the Repubs are so deep into their cultish and bigoted beliefs, they can't imagine a majority of voters (especially in the ex-Confederate states) who would support that Black Man in the White House -- or any white Democratic member of Congress, like McIntyre, who would support him.

      •  You mean the state. (0+ / 0-)

        Obama didn't even win the old NC-7.

        Hail to the king, baby.

        by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 08:30:42 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'm probably wrong (0+ / 0-)

          I was thinking that in NC the Repubs may have stretched themselves a bit thin in their gerrymander, and that some districts they were sure were red will be purple or even blue.

          Does this district include Fayetteville and the military voters around there?

          I have not seen any mentions anywhere of polling military voters as a subgroup. So I can "poll" like one of the pop-up pollsters this season, taking results from my netherparts. That is, I have a hunch that come time to mark the ballots, that Obama will run ahead of his showing among military in 2008.

          Usually military leans red. And whatever else he was or wasn't (mavericky), John McCain was military man and a war hero.

          But since that election: Obama got us out of Iraq with our dignity, and the military's self esteem, intact. Osama bin Laden is dead, giving the navy seals and the US military their greatest, most clear-cut victory perhaps since World War II. Obama got Gaddafi out of power using plenty of US firepower but without any boots on the ground or our uniformed bodies in the bags.

          Then Rmoney gives his biggest speech of the year and ignores the troops, then sort of disses the veterans among the 47%.

          So I'm thinking that the Commander in Chief may do quite well this year, at least outside of the krazy kristians who have infested segments of the military.

  •  Indiana Republicans suffer for a bad case of (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, IndyLiberal, Woody, xsonogall

    buyer's remorse with Senate Candidate Mourdock. The reality of what a tremenous loss of not having Richard Lugar as Senator has set in. The leverage of Seniority in committee assignmnts is gone, plus losing a Senator who has been well respected in the International Community  in Nuclear Weapons discussions has hurt all of the Senate.

    Only 10% of eligible voters were represented in Mourdoucks Primary win, so he didn't come to the general election with much strength.  He's just plain obnoxious.  Yes, I know Donnelly is a blue-dog Democrat, but given the alternative, I think we have to elect him to the Senate.  The possibility of nominating a far left candidate from Indiana isn't likely to happen soon. I feel more secure about Donnellly (D) every day.

    •  I don't think Donnelly will be nearly as bad (5+ / 0-)

      as Evan Bayh, so there's that.  More than anything though, I just want the GOP to lose another seat because of their unacceptable rightwing candidates defeating the moderate in the primary.  Maybe, eventually one day, Republicans will finally start to put them all together and realize what's happening...that the policies of their "true conservatives" are simply unacceptable in all but the reddest districts.

      •  thats the best you can do in Indiana (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        drmah, xsonogall, Woody

        The state is republican but more moderate than say a South Carolina. A tea party nut like Murdoch will find very little love there. Donnally has a shot especially if Obama makes it closer in the state.
        Of course he will be a Joe Manchin democrat if elected, about the best you can do in Indiana.

      •  I live in one of Indiana's reddist districts. The (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Christopher Walker, Woody

        good news is that the Democratic Party does have a candidate on the ballot ths fall for House of Representatives.  When Dan Burton was in the house, there was no (D) on the ballot at all.  I don't think a Democrat can win, but fielding a team is a good start. This district has been so seriously gerramandered, there is no way to predict what will happen. The district wanders around Tipton and Hamilton County cornfields, with no town of any size, except Carmel in it.  Carmel is wealthy, wealthy, wealthy, but has a high turnover of residents so is unpredictable.  In the early 70s the Presidential vote was 97% Republican, but in 2008 the Republican vote was down to 58%.  We've come a long way, baby!!  

    •  When Mourdock was asked to name a Democrat he (4+ / 0-)

      could work with, he gave further credence to speculation that his national funders and handlers want him to keep quiet, circulate only at GOP events, and let them do the talking. Mourdock responded, “I would have to think about it. I don’t have any off the top of my head.”

      http://www.jconline.com/...

      •  Mourdoch is so clueless (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera, Woody

        I mean, I have met the man, and he is a genuinely nice person, but damn he is so fucking boorish.  He is certainly not the sharpest knife in the drawer.  I only hope that the rest of the state sees it.

        27, male, gay, living and voting in IN-7. Joe Donnelly for Senate and John Gregg for Governor!

        by IndyLiberal on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 07:54:33 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Repugs have been playing nicey-nice with their (0+ / 0-)

          TV spots since the Primary, but when they come out with their ususal hate ads the last couple of weeks before the election, I think their true natue will show.  If you didn't know Mike Pence had an absolutely terrible history in DC, you would think he was MR. Nice Guy from his campaign ads for govenor.  Now Mourdock is using his old man in his ads who's turning around everything Sonny Boy said in the Primary re: Social Security. How stupid does he think Indiana voters are?

  •  IL 17: Bustos internal says she's down 47-45 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, CF of Aus, abgin

    Obama up 54-41 in the district.

    http://goo.gl/...

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 06:23:51 AM PDT

  •  NM Sen: Heinrich internal has him up 52-44 (7+ / 0-)

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 06:25:08 AM PDT

  •  Maine RAss: Obama 52-40 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mark27, LordMike

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 06:31:45 AM PDT

  •  This set of "exposes" re: McMahon is hardly (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    headline material. She was a few months late with her property taxes 4 times in 28 years? She wants to consider means testing SS or raising the retirement age? I'm agnostic on the first, basically opposed to the second, but neither is my worst nightmare. If I were a McMahon supporter, which I assuredly am not, I'd be saying, "Is that all you got?"

    Two hundred million Americans, and there ain't two good catchers among 'em. --Casey Stengel

    by LongTom on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 06:34:30 AM PDT

  •  Rasmussen has it Obama 47-46 today (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    48-48 with leaners. Approval still 48-51. Seems to have been in a holding pattern recently - we have to wait for those partisan trends numbers next week to see if Scotty's going to rejoin planet Earth this cycle.

  •  Ha! Sure, let's put in a sunset provision (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, KingofSpades

    Make them hypocrits vote on it every year. That should be fun!

    I am progressive. I am liberal. I make no apologies. - Kos

    My political compass: - 8.38,-6.97

    by pucklady on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 07:13:07 AM PDT

  •  Here's a comparison to make Romney weep (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, bumiputera, KingofSpades

    Bush viewed more favorably than Romney.

    That should actually read "less unfavorably" since both are underwater, but Romney must be wondering who he does compare well against. I suppose there's always Newt Gingrich - maybe the whole point of his candidacy was to make whoever did ultimately win the nomination look like the right choice?

  •  Funny how it is that (0+ / 0-)

    those who will never ever have to survive on SS benefits are so eager to get rid of it.....as though we all have huge lifetime pensions coming or something....

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