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12:14 PM PT: CT-Sen: It's almost comical to see a candidate flail in such soulless fashion. After getting lacerated over her support for a "sunset provision" for the Social Security program, Linda McMahon's taken a huge beating over entitlements in general. Remarkably, she's doubled down on her prior statements, and now she offers this nihilistic approach to Medicare (via a campaign spokesman):

For Medicare, Abrajano said, "Linda McMahon believes that all options should be on the table although she is not specifically supporting any of them."
I support everything—and nothing!

12:20 PM PT: AZ-Sen: The other week, a rumor surfaced about a sketchy, nameless Republican poll out of Arizona showing the Senate race remarkably close. Now, we have an actual Republican poll (courtesy Moore Information)... showing the Senate race very close. GOP Rep. Jeff Flake leads Democrat Richard Carmona 43-40, a spread similar to what we've seen in other public polling. The presidential toplines seem very optimistic, though, with Mitt Romney only beating Barack Obama by a 46-42 margin.

12:27 PM PT: MO-Sen: Um:

"I've expressed this to Todd as my client for a while now, I've expressed it to him directly," conservative consultant Kellyanne Conway said today on a radio show with Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council. "The first day or two where it was like the Waco with the David Koresh situation where they're trying to smoke him out with the SWAT teams and the helicopters and the bad Nancy Sinatra records. Then here comes day two and you realize the guy's not coming out of the bunker. Listen, Todd has shown his principle to the voters."
Oddly enough, Kellyanne Conway is probably not the only person who thinks there's a resemblance between Todd Akin and David Koresh. I realize it's sort of cheating to rely on a consultant, though, for the "Todd Akin says something idiotic" watch, but don't worry, we've still got something directly from the cult leader's horse's mouth:
Akin also defended his characterization of Democratic U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill as not being "ladylike" in a recent debate, saying he used the term "just as the English language uses those terms." [...]

"We've got a couple words in the English language, one is a gentleman and a lady," Akin said Friday. "I think those are pretty self-explanatory terms, and I was using them just as the English language uses those terms. So you know it seems that some people want to take offense at words. It seems to me the offensive thing is the voting record that's destructive to the people of our state."

12:32 PM PT: Chamber of Commerce: Yikes. According to a report in The Hotline, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce is launching a $3.3 million television ad assault across ten different California House districts. Reid Wilson has the details on the size of each buy at the link.


12:40 PM PT: Dark Money: At least if you're going to get accused of taking money from George Soros, it would help if he actually gave you some, right? The billionaire philanthropist and erstwhile Democratic donor is finally getting back into the dark money game this cycle, after appearing to lose interest in electoral politics for a while. He's donating half a million to Majority PAC and House Majority PAC, the two most important Democratic outside spending groups in Senate and House races respectively (aside from the official party committees). On top of that, he's giving $1 million to Priorities USA Action, the main pro-Obama super PAC. And based on the New York Times's report, it sounds like Soros's contributions might also encourage other richie riches to follow suit.

12:51 PM PT: WV-Gov: Buried in a long piece on gubernatorial races in general, Dave Catanese notes that the DGA has "just reserved" $2.6 million in TV airtime to help Dem Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin. That might seem like a surprising development, since Tomblin's held healthy leads in what little public polling we've seen, and it's hard to imagine businessman Bill Maloney doing better this time around than he did in last year's special election. But you'll recall that the RGA, oddly enough, has been propping up Maloney—very possibly only to demonstrate that they keep promises to their recruits, even if they aren't particularly sanguine about their chances. (Think Bob Kerrey and his super PAC money.) Regardless of the RGA's motivations, the DGA probably just wants to play it safe here and make sure this race stays off the table.

1:19 PM PT: Ah. Now I think we know why Heinrich released that internal poll. Wilson just dropped one of her own (from Public Opinion Strategies), purporting to show this a one-point race. POS has Heinrich leading just 43-42, with "American Party" candidate Jon Barrie taking an improbably 9 percent. I can understand why Wilson is doing this, even though her numbers look nothing like any others: She has almost no time left to somehow convince donors and power brokers that she can still win this race. But I just don't think you can con the NRSC this way.

1:53 PM PT: ME-Sen: I'm utterly unsurprised to see this: The DSCC is jumping into Maine with a $410K ad buy—a pretty hefty sum for a very tiny state. The ads aren't pro-Angus King, which would be a dicey thing given that King, of course, is still refusing to say he'll caucus with Democrats. Rather, the DS is going after Republican Charlie Summers, since King himself seems to be incapable of doing so.

2:21 PM PT: And here are eight of the Chamber's spots (CA-03 and CA-36 don't appear to have been posted yet): CA-07 | CA-09 | CA-10 | CA-24 | CA-26 | CA-41 | CA-47 | CA-52.

2:48 PM PT: Ads: It's your Friday ad dump:

MA-Sen:  Scott Brown (R)
MT-Sen:  Denny Rehberg (R)
MT-Sen:  NRSC (R)
ND-Sen:  Patriot Majority (D)
ND-Sen:  Rick Berg (R)
ND-Sen:  NRSC (R)
NV-Sen:  Patriot Majority (D)
OH-Sen:  Sherrod Brown (D)
VA-Sen:  DSCC (D)
WI-Sen:  Tommy Thompson (R)

2:50 PM PT: Ads:

NC-Gov: RGA (R)

2:52 PM PT:CT-Sen: Linda McMahon (R)

3:02 PM PT: Ads:

AZ-01: American Future Fund (R)
AZ-01: American Future Fund (R)
CA-10: House Majority PAC (D) (in Spanish; transcript)
CO-07: Joe Coors (R)
IA-03: DCCC (D)
IA-04: Humane Society (D)
MD-06: John Delaney (D)
MN-08: American Action Network (R)
OH-06: Charlie Wilson (D)
PA-08: Mike Fitzpatrick (R)
PA-18: Tim Murphy (R) (first ad)
TX-14: Randy Weber (R)
VA-02: Paul Hirschbiel (D)

3:20 PM PT: FL-18: Ugh. Allen West goes ultra-nasty in his latest ad, comparing the moment before he deployed to Iraq in 2003 with a drunken bar brawl that led to an arrest for his Democratic opponent, Patrick Murphy, at the same time. Considering this was a decade ago and Murphy was still a teenager (!), that's a dirty place to go, but pretty predictable for politics. (Murphy's acknowledged the incident before, calling it the "biggest mistake of my life"—though all charges were dropped.) Murphy's campaign fired back by pointing out that 2003 wasn't exactly a high point in West's life either:

The Murphy campaign quickly pointed out in a statement to Roll Call that West was fined $5,000 in December 2003 for an incident earlier that year involving the interrogation of an Iraqi policeman who he thought was planning his assassination. West threatened to kill the policemen and fired a gun near his head as an interrogation tactic. Then he was forced to retire.
Meanwhile, the House Majority PAC just launched a new assault of its own on Murphy's behalf. Their ad finally does what you'd want—almost—by deploying a series of clips of West saying a bunch of different lunatic things, as is his wont. But at the end, for some reason, they flash a mention of tax liens on the screen (just text), the same boring issue that seemed to get zero traction for Democrat Ron Klein when he lost his seat to West two years ago. HMP says it's "now increased its TV buy in this district to over $1.5 million."

3:26 PM PT: NY-19: Could that Siena poll showing the GOP dominant in the 19th have been just plain wrong? The DCCC's now released their second ad here, attacking GOP Rep. Chris Gibson over the Ryan plan and atta-boy'ing Democrat Julian Schreibman for supporting an end to the "Bush tax cuts for the wealthy." Meanwhile, Crossroads GPS is also out with their expected ad, telling the standard Medicare-related lies about Schreibman.

3:33 PM PT: IL-13: Democrat David Gill continues his run of authentic, personal ads, this time talking about the death of his wife just a few years ago. Gravely ill, she was airlifted to a hospital in St. Louis; not long before she died, Gill received a $17,000 bill from the insurance company, which refused to pay for the medevac flight. Says Gill: "It's absolutely shameful that here in America, while you're planning a funeral, you're also being faced with an insurance company coming down on you. And I think that we can do a whole lot better than that."

3:37 PM PT: The Chamber is also deploying their ads in IL-10 and IL-13. Not only are they really crappily produced, but they also all start out the same way, featuring a whiny businesswoman complaining she can't expand her company because of tax and regulatory uncertainty... who just happens to be from Minnesota. They seriously couldn't find someone from California or Illinois?

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Comment Preferences

  •  OMG DAVID! (13+ / 0-)

    This empty diary spam is really getting OUT OF HAND!

    I mean, it was bad enough when it was one per day, but TWO?!

    Modz, ban plz.

  •  Random MT Senate quirk (9+ / 0-)

    I didn't realize this but apart from Conrad Burns no Republican senator from Montana had gone on to serve more than a single term.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/...

    How far can you go into the forest? Halfway, after that you'd be walking out of the forest.

    by lordpet8 on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 12:11:28 PM PDT

  •  It's like an Open Thread? (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, lordpet8, atdnext, bumiputera, bjssp

    I've been thinking about OFA maybe adding Arizona to its battleground states list. If they gonna do it, sooner is probably better than later for a dozen reasons. One good reason is, It's a great way to fundraise.

    "We're going after Arizona and we need more money to do that." Damn, that'd be a helluva e-mail pitch. I'd prolly give myself, and I've only given to Congressional races this year.

  •  R/I internet tracking: Obama 47-42 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, atdnext

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 12:13:27 PM PDT

  •  LOL (5+ / 0-)

    that's some classic stuff there...all options on the table but I don't specifically support any of them.

    McMahon's entire strategy seems to be pouring tens of millions of dollars into negative ads against Murphy, and hoping Connecticut votes for her by default without actually knowing anything about her.

  •  Typo (14+ / 0-)

    And this time you can't use a lack of coffee as an excuse. Carmonta trails 43-40, not 43-30

  •  A different way to look at House ratings (6+ / 0-)

    There is a lot of talk about tipping-point electoral votes for Obama, that is which state is most likely to be the one to put him over 270 first, and the most critical state in the event of a national tie.  If Obama wins by a large amount, it will be the state that mirrors the national percentage, assuming a bit of uniform swing.  A lot of people have predicted it will be Ohio, Colorado, or possibly Virginia.

    I'm going to try to do the same thing for House races, predicting what I think are the tipping point races...the ones that should be closest to tossups in the event that we come right up to the point of taking the House, the ones that we essentially need to be getting (as well as all easier races) to take control.

    It's a little tricky because it includes both defense and offense.

    I don't mean to self-promote any more than I already have, but going off that list, I see the tipping point defense seats being Kathy Hochul, the vacant CA-21, and Leonard Boswell.  The tipping point offense seats include Steve King, Mary Bono, Reid Ribble, and Jon Runyan.  In short, tough territory and we could very well lose every single one of those races.  But if we are to take back the House, I see those as being the final ones to put us over 25 net gains.

    •  I'm writing a diary projecting (6+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, Skaje, atdnext, bythesea, MichaelNY, jncca

      What seats Democrats need to pick up.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 12:36:11 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  The usefulness of this (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      atdnext, MichaelNY

      is that we can use polls of those races as better barometers of how many seats we will pick up, compared to the simple national House vote.  Under that metric, people argue over whether we need D+2 or D+5, but whatever happens, I think a majority in the House comes at right about the time we're winning the aforementioned races.

      And at the moment, unfortunately, they're all right around Tilt-GOP/Lean GOP, which means that's my rating for control of the House.

  •  Ralston on NV-Sen Debate... (5+ / 0-)

    Basically, he's mad at everyone and everything. And honestly, that's probably better for Shelley. As I said last night, it was no big "game change". But with the latest momentum going to Shelley, the strong Dem ground game, and what Heller said last night about the DREAM Act, Heller probably didn't get what he needed last night.

    •  Wonder what it says about the Pres race there (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, The Caped Composer

      that Heller kept trying to tie Berkley to Obama, but what about the guy atop the ticket in Heller's own party running against Obama?  Whatever his name is, Heller didn't speak it.

      37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 01:02:15 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  atdnext, you talk about this as if... (4+ / 0-)

      ...Berkley has a clear lead and Heller is playing catchup.

      The CW is the quasi-opposite, "quasi" because all analysts still call it a tossup, but "opposite" because they all think it's not quite a pure tossup, Heller has the small edge.

      Quite the jarring contrast.

      I know you've revealed here that Mellman polls for Berkley and consistently has her up 1-3 points, but is there anything else you can share to believe it's really that good?...not necessarily just polling, but other stuff?

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 01:41:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  just the fact that in many, many races in the past (6+ / 0-)

        Democrats have overperformed their polling.  Like in 2004 when Kerry lost 48-50 when it hadn't looked like it would be very close, and when Gore lost 46-50 when it didn't even look really competitive.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 01:56:44 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Ralston's tweets about the debate last night (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingTag, IndyLiberal, ArkDem14, askew

      were almost entirely pro-Heller, anti-Berkley. Gave me the impression that he's eager to find things to like about Heller - and vice versa for Berkley.

      •  I watched his interview with her (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, MichaelNY, itskevin, askew

        She just wouldn't take his whiny, grating attempts to hit her with low-ball, misrepresented questions straight out of Republican playbooks. And she responded right back in harsh, grating, Brooklyn-style way. No wonder he's still peeved. This year he frankly seems out to get every single Democratic candidate running for a competitive and swingish race. He's been really hard on Berkley, Oceguera, and Horsford.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 05:35:37 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  He's whacked Baby Tark quite a bit too (0+ / 0-)

          I agree about Rep. Berkley and John Oceguera. He seems to really dislike both of them and seems rather fond of Sen. Heller and Rep. Heck.

          Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

          by SaoMagnifico on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 07:30:50 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  after Oceguera's interview, I can see why (0+ / 0-)

            Ralston dislikes him.  He's such an empty suit; I hope he doesn't go for statewide if he wins this year.

            19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

            by jncca on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 07:31:52 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  He'll probably win anyway (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              He's not my favorite Democrat, nor is Horsford. But there are worse.

              Actually -- if we're not going to take back the House this year anyway, I'd sort of rather we lose seats like FL-09 where we're running horrible candidates, then take them over with less moronic candidates in 2014. Not sure NV-03 falls quite into that category, but YMMV.

              Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

              by SaoMagnifico on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 07:41:02 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  yeah if control of the House (0+ / 0-)

                is for sure not up in the air on Election Day, I'll be rooting for Todd Long and Brendan Doherty, because both would fall even in a neutral environment.  If control of the House is at stake, then I'll be rooting for the Democrats.

                Oceguera isn't at Ciccilline/Grayson levels.

                19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                politicohen.com
                Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

                by jncca on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 08:12:29 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Eh, Doherty is a bit more concerning (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  HoosierD42

                  I can potentially see him giving RI-01 a bad case of LaTourette's Syndrome, where it turns all red and blotchy and can't stop voting Republican.

                  Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

                  by SaoMagnifico on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 08:23:51 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Never root for Republicans (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    fearlessfred14, James Allen

                    Recruit strong primary challenges for the Democrat after they win. If they're really as bad as we think, they'll lose then.

                    24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

                    by HoosierD42 on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 12:27:49 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  What's so wrong with Ciccilline (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    James Allen, MichaelNY, sapelcovits

                    as a Representative? Yes, he mismanaged Providence, but after this election that should lose much of its value as an attack line.

                    Grayson I can see, since he's kind of a bizarro Allen West, but FL-09 seems ready to elect him in the full knowledge that he's left-wing and a dick, so they probably keep him until the next red wave at least.

                    If Ocegura can beat Heck, the seat's probably better with him defending it in 2014 than with a potentially entrenched Heck. Even a weak incumbent will still have some advantage, and that might well outweigh inferior candidate factors- that is, unless the incumbent is downright toxic (see IL-08).

                    Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

                    by fearlessfred14 on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 12:42:28 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

              •  It's strange (0+ / 0-)

                They can't be as bad as they seem. I mean, they are Speaker and Majority respectively, and how can you earn those spots being an empty suit?

                "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                by ArkDem14 on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 10:55:18 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

  •  So in terms of gubernatorial races (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    it's looking like Democrats are -1.  The recent polling shift (in like the last day or two) towards Hassan, the post-primary realignment of the Washington race, and the security of Nixon and Tomblin seem to have pushed the remainder in our column for now.  That sucks, but it could've been worse (and still could be if the NH polls turn around).

    And I hate to say that Sao could be right, but Hassan could be a strong candidate in 2016 if there's an open field (no Biden or Clinton).  So long as she leaves the anti-income tax stuff behind in New Hampshire.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 01:01:45 PM PDT

    •  Or if Lynch wants back (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, lordpet8, MichaelNY, abgin

      The Senate race is all his.

      Hail to the king, baby.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 01:08:41 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'd still like to see a few more polls (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY

      for the MT governors race, though I think Bullock has the slight edge.

      I wonder how we'll do the in NH state legislature.  

      How far can you go into the forest? Halfway, after that you'd be walking out of the forest.

      by lordpet8 on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 01:13:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  honestly I forgot about MT (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, Woody

        but things have been looking decent for us there.

        I assume that if Obama wins NH by 5 or more, and we win gov, CD-01 and CD-02, all of which appear to be at least tilting our way, that we'll at least make major gains in the state house.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 01:16:04 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I don't know how to read MT-Gov (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8

        Why do you think Bullock has a slight edge?

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 02:22:54 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  mainly from his fundraising (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          he has more cash on hand, and the state is still good at electing Democrats at the state level.

          How far can you go into the forest? Halfway, after that you'd be walking out of the forest.

          by lordpet8 on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 03:54:48 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Also, Montanans are really peeved (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            About Citizens United. Bullock has made some hay about outside groups supporting Rick Hill.

            24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

            by HoosierD42 on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 12:30:26 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  I think it's much more likely Hassan ends up (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, MichaelNY

      as a vice presidential contender in 2016. If Democrats were to lose that year, though, and she were still in office or had left on good terms, she'd probably be a strong contender for the top spot in 2020.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 01:54:35 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think Klobuchar would be the best (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        2016 VP candidate.

        She's likable and smart, but not tough enough (not a woman thing but a Minnesota thing) to win a Presidential primary.  And she's funny too!

        19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

        by jncca on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 03:37:52 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  not for Hillary (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          The Caped Composer, MichaelNY

          Hillary's would be Brian Schweitzer.

          SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 03:50:00 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  No he wouldn't (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ArkDem14, askew

            The Democratic party has traditionally split the ticket ideologically, and Schweitzer is ideologically homogeneous with Clinton. And a ticket of two old white people is hardly beneficial, especially when we'll probably be facing Rubio. Someone like Martin Heinrich or Deval Patrick would be best. Neither would outshine Clinton, both are from different ideological wings of the party than Clinton, and have different areas of policy expertise. Heinrich would probably be better because he brings far superior credentials on immigration policy and hispanic support, both of which would be big boons to Clinton's campaign. Amy Klobuchar would basically be a bad version of Kirsten Gillibrand in terms of being Clinton's VP.

            Honestly, what does anyone think Schweitzer would bring to the ticket? For all the ridicule of bad pundits thinking Democrats need to keep trying to replicate Clinton's victories (which probably wouldn't have even worked back in the 90's -- let alone now -- without Perot) some here seem to think we need to do just that. Schweitzer might have made an interesting Presidential candidate in 1916, but rural whites oil rig workers are not swing constituencies anymore.

            And to scale back to this entire thread, I'm again baffled what anyone could see in Maggie Hassan. She would be terrible as a presidential candidate or vice presidential candidate. She doesn't even support the existence of an income tax! She's completely ideologically out of the Democratic party mainstream. The only way Hassan would make the ticket is if someone like Elizabeth Warren or O'Malley made the ticket and we desperately needed help with fiscally-moderate suburban voters. Because that's the only sort of constituency she appeals to, and she would be a turn off to a lot of other people.

            If Klobuchar's going to be on the ticket it needs to be with someone like Gillibrand (again Gillibrand, who I think would make an excellent VP pick for a lot of different people) who's a flashy North Easterner, and something of a culture warrior, which balances nicely with someone subdued and fiscally moderate like Klobuchar. It would basically simultaneously be a base-happy ticket and an all out attack on socially liberal suburbanites, who are the last real swing constituency in America. Clinton/Schweitzer (or Schweitzer/anybody really) would bring nothing to the table for those voters. Honestly, if Clinton doesn't run, I think Klobuchar/Gillibrand would be a really hard ticket to beat.

            (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

            by Setsuna Mudo on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 04:48:47 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  balanced ticket myth died with Clinton/Gore (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              calvinshobbes

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 04:57:22 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  vp (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Schweitzer is a great speaker and brings expertise on energy issues. He would also balance the ticket east-west and urban-rural. They're both "beer track" as of 2008, but I think Hillary would do well in the swingy suburbs since the big dog is generally well regarded there.

              You may be right that Heinrich would have more appeal to Hispanics.

              SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

              by sacman701 on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 06:10:53 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  The thing about Schweitzer is that (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, James Allen

                he might help limit the margins in rural or areas that are otherwise hard for Democrats without losing much, if anything at all, of the usual important Democratic constituencies. It'd be one thing if he were, for lack of a better word, kind of hickish, but he's not a Democratic Ted Nugent. I suspect he could easily adapt and speak the language of pretty much any important group.

                "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                by bjssp on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 07:28:59 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  Does she not support an income tax (0+ / 0-)

              at the federal level?

              I think we're bound to see a non-white on the ticket, but in the vice presidential slot. I don't think there are any minorities with Obama's potential on the horizon right now, and for any number of reasons, most if not all of these candidates will not want to potentially cede any of the non-white vote to the Republicans, who as you suggest could have a non-white as a presidential candidate. So I don't think it will be Clinton and Schweitzer as a ticket, but it could be either one of them with a Hispanic congressman, for instance.

              "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

              by bjssp on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 07:21:38 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Did you think in 2004 (0+ / 0-)

                that Obama was on the horizon? I didn't. So I think that while we can point to some known possible candidates, there could easily be other candidates we're not thinking about now.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 07:27:45 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  well he was given the 04 keynote for a reason. (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                  politicohen.com
                  Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                  UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

                  by jncca on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 07:32:59 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  Well, at this point in 2004, we knew Obama (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  was running for the Senate and we knew he was almost certainly going to be a senator. It was not clear if he would run or how he would do in 2008, but it wasn't a shock when he did, as he was talked up as a presidential candidate from the moment he was done with his speech at the convention.

                  Who at this point is in Obama's category, specifically in regards to race? I can't think of anyone.

                  I guess someone could pop up in 2014, but they'd be running for president almost from the moment they took office, at least at the federal level. I can't see this person being credible, short of accomplishing something on the level of having started a big company before entering politics, in just two years.

                  For 2020, it's entirely different story, particularly if we have a very diverse class elected in 2014.

                  By the way, I've said this many times in the past, although not recently, but the comparisons to Obama and Rubio are weak for many reasons. Chief among them is that Obama was something of a national celebrity the moment he ran for higher office because of his convention speech. Rubio has nothing like that going for him now. The longer he is in office, the more like every other politician he seems, no matter his race is. I could see him being a presidential contender some day, but if he is, it won't be all that different from the way any other swing state politician would be.

                  "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                  by bjssp on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 07:37:38 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

            •  She doesn't support a *state* income tax (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              I'll bet Jay Inslee doesn't, either. I doubt Sen. Begich does. Both have demonstrated their reasonableness on federal tax issues in Congress. I don't think Hassan is far to their right at all.

              Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

              by SaoMagnifico on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 07:37:49 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  What about Clinton/Salazar? (0+ / 0-)
              •  Too old possibly (0+ / 0-)

                Plus Secretary of the Interior is not a place of great prestige.

                *Never mind on the too old, he's only 57. He looks much older.

                24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

                by HoosierD42 on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 12:33:47 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

          •  I'm assuming our nominee is one of (0+ / 0-)

            O'Malley, Cuomo, Warner, Hickenlooper, or Schweitzer.

            19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

            by jncca on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 04:49:49 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  At this stage, four years out (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen

              Hickenlooper and Warner would be my top VP choices since they're essentially mainstream Democrats who wouldn't be ridiculously to the right of congressional Dems (cough Cuomo cough cough) but are also ridiculously popular in very key swing states.

              I think a ticket of Sherrod Brown for president and Hickenlooper or Warner for VP would be very interesting to watch.

              Also, I highly doubt Schweitzer is our nominee simply due to the fact that he comes from such a small state.  We've never, ever had a president come from a 3 EV state for a good reason: it's hard to get traction in the primary without a large enough political base of support.

              Really though, I'm just in the ABC caucus: anybody but Cuomo since he's A) a conservadem on fiscal/economic policy and B) I doubt he can win since he'll still be painted as a radical gay-marrying liberal while depressing turnout/enthusiasm among economic liberals.

              NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

              by sawolf on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 05:01:25 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  false (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                Chester Arthur was from VT.  However, he was never elected President, so your point still stands.

                19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                politicohen.com
                Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

                by jncca on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 05:16:24 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  No, birthplace is irrelevant (0+ / 0-)

                  In terms of political base, Arthur was from New York and obviously never won election to the presidency.  Pretty much everyone considers Obama as being "from" Illinois even though he was born in Hawaii, so for the purpose of this discussion he's from a large state (even though he had a native son effect in Hawaii).

                  Also, since the 19th century presidents had nothing resembling our primary system, it's interesting that coming form a state/district with a larger political base still matters as no doubt fellow students of political might assume.

                  Really, I'd just think of Schweitzer as being equivalent to a mayor of a moderately large city with a very strong mayor vis-a-vis the city council.  All of this isn't to disparage Schweitzer; hell I'd love to nominate someone like him and I think he's a good guy and obviously a good politician, but it's just that winning a major party nomination nowadays takes a lot of political connections in terms of boosting fundraising and name recognition and it's those sort of factors that leave a small state governor or big city mayor at a disadvantage.

                  NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

                  by sawolf on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 05:27:19 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I didn't realize Arthur made his career in NY (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                    politicohen.com
                    Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

                    by jncca on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 06:53:06 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

              •  Clinton (0+ / 0-)

                President Clinton came from a state that had 7 electoral votes, I think. Not a far cry from 3, really. I don't think coming from Montana is an insuperable barrier to presidential, still less vice-presidential success for Schweitzer.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 05:23:24 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  6 EVs (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  other smallish state Presidents include Franklin Pierce (NH) and Zachary Taylor (LA, no idea how large it was at the time though.  Taylor also was a General rather than a politician).  It's still very rare to come from a single digit EV state and occupy the Oval Office, especially without being a general.

                  19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                  politicohen.com
                  Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                  UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

                  by jncca on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 05:29:14 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  Well yes, the difference isn't that large (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  The point I was getting at is that the larger of a base one has among the overall Democratic base, the better a chance one has at winning the party primary.

                  Clinton in large part lucked out that no big names like Mario Cuomo ran that year, but he also had amazing skill as a retail politician.  Not to say that Schweitzer isn't skilled, but there clearly isn't an incumbent Republican president coming off of insanely high war approvals to scare off big names.

                  To reiterate, I'm not saying the "no 3EV nominee" rule is in fact a rule, just that it's hard to win the open seat nomination in general and that the smaller your base, the harder it is.  I have no doubt that, while he could possibly be a contender, coming from a small state would still be an obstacle for popular governors such as John Kitzhaber.

                  What I should really emphasize is that our nomination system is incredibly biased towards the more powerful players.  I would love for us to, if we had to have a presidential system, use national IRV for the nomination and IRV for the general.  Certain candidates are just disadvantaged because, despite if their party's voters love the, them coming from a small base makes those voters think they can't win and as such they vote for the more important candidate.  I have absolutely no doubt that if Republican primary voters had viewed Romney's alternatives as having a serious chance, he wouldn't be their nominee.

                  NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

                  by sawolf on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 05:46:09 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Who are the big names who want to run? (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    Nobody is in the same league as Sec. Clinton, but after that, I don't think there's any considerable differences in strength between Warner, Schweitzer, and O'Malley. Might one of them have more institutional support? Well, sure, but that's kind of a different question.

                    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                    by bjssp on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 07:40:42 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

              •  Sen. Sherrod Brown can't win a nominating process (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen

                He's rough around the edges and very populist, which plays well in Ohio, but he's just too unpolished to win at the national level. He always looks like he just got out of bed and he always sounds like he has coal dust in his lungs. I think he's a fantastic senator -- he's one of my favorites, actually -- but I don't see him as presidential material at all.

                Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

                by SaoMagnifico on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 07:46:46 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

          •  Try Gov. O'Malley... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Whom I am confident will be veep in 2016 if Secy. Clinton runs. Ties to the Clintons, ties to the Obama administration, legalized same-sex marriage, solid progressive, telegenic, DGA experience, obviously wants to go national. No downside.

            Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

            by SaoMagnifico on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 07:42:49 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Eh, veep is supposed to be an "attack dog" job (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I think she's much better suited to Supreme Court, personally. I'm hoping she gets an appointment down the road here, maybe once Justice Scalia dies decides to quit.

          Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

          by SaoMagnifico on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 07:34:34 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  I agree (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        It's conceivable she could top the ticket, but I think she's a likelier veep for someone like Gov. Hickenlooper or Sen. Warner.

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 07:33:35 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  "post primary realignment of WA race" ? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY, DCCyclone

      Inslee has continued to expand his lead as measured by every pollster except Rasmussen. Even R internals show Inslee ahead of McKenna by 7 points or more.

      As Obama's lead in WA grows, McKenna's chances shrink.

      •  My statement was based on (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, DCCyclone

        for a year or more McKenna led in every poll.  Around the time of the primary Inslee was closing, he won the primary 47-43, and since then I think he's led in every poll.  I think a good portion of voters were not paying attention until the primary.  When that came, Inslee shot into the lead.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 03:06:27 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Me, right? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      When has that ever happened?

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 07:32:35 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Is Scott Brown still jumping the shark? (5+ / 0-)

    http://www.masslive.com/...
    He just won't let it go.  I think that he'd be better served attacking on other things like the Traveler's Insurance case (a complex bankruptcy case about whether to secure benefits accounts or just let settlements be litigated in court).  What do you think?  Recent polls show a supermajority know about this and don't care and a majority thinks she did not use this to her benefit.  Also, she did that good ad last week about her family.

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 01:06:55 PM PDT

  •  Yeah, POS is falling out of form again. (0+ / 0-)

    They were quite accurate in 2010, I believe, in contrast.

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 01:26:41 PM PDT

    •  They're a top national pollster (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      POS is a good pollster.

      Their disclosed private polls are the same as others pollsters':  either dead-on honest, or the best outlier out of a series, or the "informed ballot."  And it's always the client that chooses to release, since the client owns the poll.

      And yes POS like all pollsters will have the occasional just plain bad poll.  It happens.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 07:32:45 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Really? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I've always considered POS to be, well, a POS.

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 07:38:35 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Again, I listed the reasons to distrust... (0+ / 0-)

          ...a disclosed private poll, whether from POS or anyone else.

          Don't forget WI-Gov recall, a bunch of disclosed Dem numbers were bullshit.  They were the best of a series of polls, the outliers, released to counter the "Walker has it" narrative.

          So I'm not saying trust POS numbers, I'm saying don't think this isn't a good polling firm, because they are.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 08:21:48 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  This election fraud scandal at the RNC (5+ / 0-)

    seems to be a good example of why you want to keep voter organization efforts in house, with the campaign.

    link.

    •  On that note, does this give anybody pause? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, bythesea

      Via Kevin Drum, I saw this from Ed Kilgore about white conservatives from the suburbs harassing those in the cities. I'd love to think Drum is right that it won't matter. A big part of me thinks that Obama is headed for such a solid win, the likes of which will be apparent well before election day, that they will be too depressed to care. Or maybe they will have to go to work or something.

      Will 1,000,000 people do something like this? Probably not. At the same time, will there be enough people interested in causing trouble and enough people annoyed by it that it could spiral out of control in a few places? It wouldn't surprise me, although I really, really hope I am wrong.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 02:03:59 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  If only Democrats could feign outrage (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, ArkDem14

      and make this into a scandal like the Republicans try to make everything...

      That's what the partisan in me wants. I mean, isn't this literally exactly what assholes like Breitbart and Tucker Carlson have been claiming against Democrats since, like, forever? Unless there's a layer to the story that I am missing, it doesn't actually look like anything nefarious was attempted on a grand scale. Quite simply, it looks like the Republicans paid people to do what is usually volunteer work and, as is the case with this when it is volunteer work, a few people acted poorly. (Seriously, given how little money was given to the firm by the RNC and how many people were employed, just how low was the wage here?)

      Except, has anyone accused whatever ACORN is now or any similar group of throwing away Republican cards?

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 03:01:31 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  HI-Sen: Inouye will film an ad for Hirono and it's (12+ / 0-)

    all thanks to the Lingle campaigns use of him in one of their web ads.

    http://www.kitv.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 02:04:14 PM PDT

  •  I want to issue a correction RE: Pew poll (11+ / 0-)

    Obama's not ahead 51-42 among Catholic voters....he's up 54-39 among Catholic voters!
    http://religion.blogs.cnn.com/...

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 02:06:42 PM PDT

  •  MO-Sen: Joe Ricketts endorsed McCaskill. (12+ / 0-)

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 02:23:38 PM PDT

  •  MI-11 "Constitutional Conservatives" (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I have a tin cup letter this afternoon (yes, I lurk on some Republican mailing lists from various wings of their party) for Kerry Bentivolio, over the signature of Senator Rand Paul.

    I believe Senator Paul is interested in following in his dad's footsteps, trying to build up a wing, or a faction, within the GOP that loyally look to him as a leader.

    I view that as a good thing, if the GOP splits up into miniature fiefdoms that squabble. (But I'm not sending any money to Bentivolio.)

    A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

    by Christopher Walker on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 02:43:51 PM PDT

    •  Amash and Walter Jones are already in his corner (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY

      with this, he can have nearly 1% of the House behind him!

      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 03:39:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Checking FEC Reports (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Last night, in response to my statement that there's still time for Obama to make a late push in certain states, I was told to check the FEC reports. Where in particular should I be looking? I don't mean to seem lazy or dumb, but it's not always clear.

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 02:48:53 PM PDT

  •  Maine Senate strategy (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, spiderdem

    I'm thinking that the DSCC is playing good cop-bad cop here.  Barring an Angus King announcement that he will caucus as a Democrat (will someone already just tell him c'mon, everyone expects you to do so and those who want a GOP majority are for Summers?), I guess that the DSCC is allowing King the luxury of running a "good cop" positive campaign focused on himself, while the national Dems play "bad cop" by attacking Summers and his party and thinking of the word Dill as a pickle, not a candidate.

    37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

    by Mike in MD on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 03:03:03 PM PDT

  •  Don't get the big deal with Soros. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, ArkDem14

    I was just looking at the top donors to Majority PAC and I'm sure he's already given it six figures.  The "dark money" stuff seems way overhyped so far.  A whole lot spent to no effect in the Presidential race,and near parity in big downfalls races.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 03:03:36 PM PDT

    •  Yep. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY

      100k from Soros.  They had to get bigger donations from others.  Majority PAC is not hurting for donors anyway.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 03:06:17 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'm curious, are there any legal restrictions (0+ / 0-)

        on how these outside groups can raise money, aside from the usual stuff? If there wasn't, do they ask for donations from people like us? If not, why not?

        The list of people who can write huge checks is certainly small and the list of people who can give beyond the maximum limits to candidates without giving a truly huge amount is only slightly larger. I could see the issue being that most donors are small scale and that it's unlikely that they would be willing to donate to a group they are most likely unfamiliar with. After all, if you can usually only give $15 a month to a candidate, but then suddenly have more money, why wouldn't you just give the additional money to the same candidate?

        On the other hand, it's a big, big country, and given that the sums of money involved are big but not THAT big, perhaps parity could be reached. For instance, if OFA has about 3,000,000 donors, and only 10 percent could go beyond, say, $2,500, that's 300,000 people. If half of those people give $50, that's $7.5 million. It might not compare to what Sheldon Adelson can drop so easily, but it's a pretty nice sum nevertheless.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 03:17:30 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  *big downballot races (0+ / 0-)

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 03:09:37 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Rival NM Sen internal polling (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SLDemocrat, MichaelNY

    Wilson put out one showing her down one point (42-43) while Heinrich put one out showing an 8 point lead 52-44. The Republican one also has presidential numbers, Obama leading 47-40. Links to all of these polls from TPM.

    •  I'm confident Heinrich will win easily. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY

      I'll go with a 6-7 point margin. Wilson will outperform Romney, but she isn't nearly strong enough to win in a non-Republican wave year (especially in a state like New Mexico), plus Heinrich is an excellent candidate.

      •  It'll be more than 6-7 (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY, NMLib

        That the GOP and even independent expenditure groups are abandoning Wilson this soon means that she's fallen behind probably more than that.  It's certainly not because she's a bad candidate, they were thrilled to get her and she knows how to campaign to the swing vote in the state.

        I bet Heinrich's poll is right, at 8 points, and I bet it ends up double-digits in the final result.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 07:40:46 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I agree. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone

          Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

          by SaoMagnifico on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 07:47:48 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I'm somewhat skeptical of it being double-digits.. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          The fact that the NRSC has pulled out ends whatever chance she has of winning, but she still has a stubborn base in northeast Albuquerque which will turn out for her (if there are going to be any significant number of Obama/Wilson voters, they'll probably be in Northeast Albuquerque, Wilson is still reasonably popular here).

          Of course, with Heather Wilson being written off and the fact that Obama will easily win by double-digits (and might even match his 2008 numbers just based on how badly Romney is flailing), I can't dismiss Heinrich winning by 10 either.

          Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

          by NMLib on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 07:01:49 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  wouldn't it be better in FL-18 to say (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    redrelic17, ArkDem14, SLDemocrat

    some thing like "We've had enough of Allen West being an embarrassment," rather than some tangent about tax liens that you make people read?

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 03:25:13 PM PDT

    •  They're determined to make people care about (0+ / 0-)

      old tax liens. Much like McMahon.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 05:21:26 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Got to admit, (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, DCCyclone, aamail6

    It was a really disgusting low blow but that West ad is brutal. One of the best attack ads of the cycle.

    •  low blow (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, MichaelNY, KyleinWA, jncca

      How is it a disgusting low blow? It's the same sort of thing that Nelson has been beating Mack up over.

      I said in the earlier thread that Murphy wouldn't be able to call it a youthful indiscretion because it was just 9 years ago. I didn't realize that Murphy is just 28, so if he handles it well this might not be as damaging as if he had gotten into a bar fight at, say, 35. But is the Dem bench in that district so weak that a 28 year old with baggage and nothing special on his resume was the best they could do?

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 04:18:45 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Let's see how he responds (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        before drawing conclusions.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 04:22:50 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I am a little confused (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        as to how he was in a bar when he was underage? Or is FL a little more relaxed on not letting minors into bars than WA is?

        Age 24, WA-3, Republican, elected PCO, engaged. Overall conservative

        by KyleinWA on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 04:38:26 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Florida was the last state to raise their drinking (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          age to 21, I think.  But that was in the 1980s, so it's irrelevant.
          I'd assume fake ID. Which of course ties into VOTER FRAUD !!!!1!1!!!!1

          19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

          by jncca on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 04:52:40 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  How old (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        was Mack when he got in trouble?

        Hail to the king, baby.

        by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 05:12:33 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  He actually comes from a wealthy (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        and well-connected family and has raised a lot of money.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 05:20:32 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  The story was out a while back (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY, sacman701

        Patrick Murphy's campaign put that bar story out months ago -- in fact they polled on it, questioning "would this make you more or less likely to vote for Murphy?"  The majority said it would make them more likely to vote for him.  A couple of weeks later, there was a write-up about it in the Palm Beach Post. So, old news.

        And yes -- we are glad to have Patrick Murphy. He supports women's health care and equal pay, LGBT issues, the environment, Medicare & SS, in short all the issues a good progressive Dem would support. He's articulate, down-to earth, and a breath of fresh air in this land of Blue Dogs.

        And yes, forget weak -- we've got no bench.

        •  Do you live in FL-18 & are working for Murphy? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          What do you think of this ad?  Also, that's a strange thing to get such a positive response from polling that.

          Hail to the king, baby.

          by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 08:00:57 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yes, live here, volunteer for Murphy (0+ / 0-)

            I thought the ad was awful, but par for West.  His ads have been almost all lies, with some truth-twisting, and incredibly nasty -- but that's West. If you knew nothing about Murphy, you'd think he'd been in Congress and voting for years. Certainly gut-wrenching to watch/hear. This is the first  West ad mentioning something that actually occurred.

            Also, I blew it -- a majority said it made them less likely to vote for him. I really have to read what I write, and do it when I'm not rushing.  Sorry.

        •  Why would it make people more likely to vote (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jncca, sapelcovits

          for him? I don't understand that. Would you be more likely to vote for someone arrested for a bar fight? I wouldn't be.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 08:01:17 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  You're right (0+ / 0-)

            The majority agreed with you.  As I said above, I blew it.

            It would make me less likely, from the single incident.  I would want to know, however, how the person had been living his/her life since then.  

            It doesn't seem to have affected the race so far, but time will tell. Right now Murphy is polling slightly ahead.

      •  I hate above the fray political rants. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        But screw it.

        I stand by what I said. I would like to think college activities would be off limits. I know they aren't, but I would like to think they should be. If I ever ran for anything my college life could come back to bite me. Granted I never got arrested, but all the same I did crazy stuff.

        Naturally what Murphy does not make him a bad person. I think it was a one time mistake and shouldn't be a factor in deciding a vote. Nor would I consider Mack's indiscretion if I was a Republican.

        I normally take the politics ain't beanbag approach. But it drives me nuts even though I understand political realities just as much as anyone here. The norms of politics can frustrate me sometimes. I still love horserace politics. But many aspects bother me.

        So yeah I think it was a disgusting low blow. Even if it is politically acceptable to do so. I do not disagree with the political realities of the situation. Murphy is going to be hurt by this ad, I know that and said as much above.

  •  Is it just me or have we seen little (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, MichaelNY, sawolf

    news about IL-10? Your last post on the Chamber ads kind of reminded me of that race. Any sense of where things stands? It seems like it should be at least lean D, but GOP seems to do well in that district.

    •  It is sort of weird, really (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, James Allen

      This district dropped off the face of the earth after the primary, thankfully since I don't know if I could take any more of the Sheyman/Schneider battles shots every time someone said "profile" ;)

      I vaguely recall some internals released in the spring, when they're particularly useless, but I'd like to see something from the Schneider campaign just to know they're still around.

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

      by sawolf on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 04:41:45 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  There was an internal poll some months ago (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, jj32

      from Schneider showing it tied up.

      Hail to the king, baby.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 05:11:23 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  IA-3 (6+ / 0-)

    Oh, bloody hell -- "liberal" Ed Fallon is organizing a write-in campaign against Boswell, claiming that a conveniently unnamed Boswell aide tried to bribe him out of the 2008 primary.

    Boswell is suing for libel -- on the one hand that seems to drag the story out, on the other hand we certainly can't say he's letting an attack go unanswered. Either way, screw you, Ed Fallon.

    BTW, for anyone inclined to feel sympathy over this former progressive challenger, note that he's gone so far to the left he came out the other side and became a Paulbot.

    •  The write-in will go nowhere (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      Fallon used to be a respectable lefty in the state legislature and activist afterward, but he's descending into Nader/clown territory.  No one will write in his name except for a small handful of individuals who wouldn't otherwise vote for Boswell no matter what.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 07:42:34 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Don't know if it is posted here but here's a link (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, itskevin, askew

    for the Tammy v. Tommy Debate tonight in 27 minutes!  Streaming CSPan, right now Elena Kagan is talking about constitutional law.  http://www.tammybaldwin.com/...

  •  Nate Silver down slightly at 82.7% (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MBishop1

    However, the "now cast" is at a new height.

  •  Holy shit (9+ / 0-)

    This is from yesterday, and I suspect that many people have seen it. But it's simple, elegant, and absolutely devastating. I have to give major credit to the creative forces behind this ad. I didn't think Romney's comments would have much impact on the numbers, but I was clearly wrong.

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 04:56:39 PM PDT

    •  Reflecting, here's why I think this works so well (6+ / 0-)

      I had assumed that most people would see and hear the 47% comments and assume that Romney was just talking about "those people."  

      But this ad gives an entirely different picture track. Pausing on the two old vets when Romney mentions healthcare is just brilliant. And, of course, it seems obvious after the fact.

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 05:03:24 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yeah this ad is just brutal (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      andgarden, KingofSpades, MichaelNY, askew

      Honestly, when we realized Romney was pretty much going to be the nominee in 2011 (at the latest), this was the sort of ad I imagined he would get nuked with.  In short, it's why I've never been worried about Obama losing since Romney is just so vulnerable to this sort of attack and with his history of gaffes I knew we'd be able to land a blow like this sooner or later.

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

      by sawolf on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 05:04:31 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It's one thing to have other people talking (5+ / 0-)

        about what Romney did at Bain. And yes, that works pretty well.

        But having Romney express his callousness in his own words and then taking the liberty of showing what he means, that's as much of a "game over" ad as I can imagine.

        I don't see how Romney possibly recovers from this. Ever.

        Ok, so I read the polls.

        by andgarden on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 05:07:52 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  In fact, I'd put this on TV in Indiana (6+ / 0-)

          Saturate it at the buzzer.

          I'll bet it would work.

          Ok, so I read the polls.

          by andgarden on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 05:11:13 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Agreed, the 47% comment and ads like this (5+ / 0-)

          are what make me think Obama has a very good chance at winning by 8% and exceeding his vote share from 2008.  With shit like this to attack Romney on, how does he have anywhere to go but down from here on out?  He basically told half the country and a significant part of his base to go fuck themselves, or at least that's what the low info swing voter will hear.

          NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

          by sawolf on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 05:11:50 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  That last part is key (6+ / 0-)

            Because as I said above, it was never obvious to me that undecided voters (I hate "low information" for reasons not worth getting into here) would come away with the impression that Romney was referring to them.

            Now they pretty much have no choice but to.

            Ok, so I read the polls.

            by andgarden on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 05:13:49 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Right, it's with swingable voters (4+ / 0-)

              where his comment and ads like this make a fucking massive difference because if you're a middle/working class voter and had doubts that Romney's policies would be better for you economically than Obama's, this magnifies them 100-fold.

              Also, why do you hate the term "low information"?  I'm not saying I necessarily agree or disagree with the term since compared to the average DKE commenter, 95% of the electorate would be low information voters.  I was just thinking of the moderate retired senior or eonomically moderate, but catholic voter in the Ohio Rver valley who might have either voted for or been open to voting for McCain, but to whom this sort of behavior is abhorrent and results in them not only voting for Obama, but also not "not voting."  Also I like that term over swing voter since the swing voter could be someone who is genuinely halfway in between Obama and Romney, or a moderate in normal elections while still being a relatively educated, informed voter.

              Although to be completely honest, I think anyone who is a swing voter is a fucking moron.  Obviously I'm a liberal and I think liberal policies are right compared to conservative policies, but regardless of whether one thinks liberalism or conservatism is right, there is a very clear difference between the two and only one can be right or wrong.  People who think there is little enough difference to be persuadable, unlike libertarians and greens who express faux outrage/trolling against the major parties, have always come across to me as having absolutely no idea what they're talking about.  This should be obvious to anyone who has any idea of how congress works nowadays; there is a clear ideological distinction between the parties.

              NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

              by sawolf on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 05:37:39 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  My reasoning dates back to 2008 (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, sawolf

                and the primary war. It's tricky territory, but the basic explanation is as follows: "low information voter" was mostly used as a pejorative for any voter who was supposed to support Obama but only supported Hillary Clinton because he or she didn't have enough "information."

                 

                Ok, so I read the polls.

                by andgarden on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 05:56:02 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Gotcha, I didn't follow the primaries as closely (0+ / 0-)

                  as I would have today, but I completely agree with that assessment for either Obama voting blacks or Hillary voting working class voters.  It seems very pretentious if you apply it that way.

                  I just generally think of low-info voters as those who have no idea that there is a difference between the two parties and aren't arriving at that mentality from being far to the left or right of the two.

                  NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

                  by sawolf on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 06:31:05 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  It's offensive to assume (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    andgarden

                    that just because a black person votes for Obama or a working-class voter (presumably a white one, but whomever) votes for Clinton, that means they are "low information." andgarden clarified that it was only if they voted for one or the other because they didn't have enough "information" that the term applies.

                    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                    by MichaelNY on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 07:00:58 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Um... I wasn't saying that was *my* assessment (3+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY, James Allen, CF of Aus

                      of those voters >_<.  Just that those were the stupid media memes that would have fallen under andgarden's definition of who was "supposed" to support whom.  I totally don't think black voters who voted for Obama or working class voters who backed Clinton were "low info" by default.

                      NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

                      by sawolf on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 11:41:10 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

              •  I've been a swing voter most of my life (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                sawolf, MichaelNY

                My views are closer to the Dem position on some issues and to the GOP position on others. Lately the GOP has moved so far to the right that there aren't many issues left that I agree with them on. I also think that in many cases it's appropriate to put more weight on other factors (integrity, competence, etc) besides ideology.

                SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

                by sacman701 on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 06:17:02 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Right, this isn't the viewpoint I'm thinking of (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  People who are genuinely moderate enough that they're more or less in the middle between the two parties that it can be tough to decide which is closer to their own views isn't what I'm thinking of.  It's the voter who has no conception of the major differences between the parties and just how different their platforms are that I truly disdain.

                  I get it that not everyone cares or has the time to follow politics, but it just seems so basic that there is a difference between the two parties that I don't see why anyone of intelligence would be a Bush-Clinton-Clinton-Gore-Bush-Obama-Obama voter as the median vote in each of the past several elections has been.  This is pretty clear on the larger regional level as very few counties display that voting pattern.

                  NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

                  by sawolf on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 06:36:06 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

          •  I more or less agree. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            We've still got some weeks to go, but the last time Romney looked like he was in good shape was...when, exactly?

            Think about that for a moment: the last time he had a good week, a positive news cycle, some sort of good poll that wasn't from Rasmussen, or anything like that was so long ago, I can't remember off the top of my head. Maybe others can, but I can't.

            If things stay at least as bad as they are now throughout the rest of the campaign, it could be enough to juice our turnout and/or depress theirs. But if he doesn't stay where he is and instead continues on a slow downward path, let alone a fast one, it'll be hard for them to summon up the motivation to vote. He'll make things worse by giving poor performances at the debates and possibly trying something desperate. People will talk as if he's already lost. And, well...you get the idea.

            I'm not sure whether an ad like this is more the cause or more the symptom of his problems, but either way, it's bad for him.

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 07:51:19 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Like with "Firms," the sound engineering here (8+ / 0-)

      is fantastic. Just listen to the plates and silverware clacking. They've somehow been isolated in the original tape and amplified. This really ratchets up the power of the message.

      These guys deserve an Academy Award or something.

  •  Fmr Rep Sam Steiger (R-AZ) died today (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SLDemocrat, KingofSpades, jj32

    He was an interesting one.

    http://azcapitoltimes.com/...

    19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

    by jncca on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 05:12:10 PM PDT

    •  Sounds like a quirky guy. (0+ / 0-)

      Hail to the king, baby.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 05:14:56 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  yeah (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        just read up on the 1976 Senate primary that he won pretty narrowly.  The other congressman had straight up anti-Semitic attacks.  Pretty amazing they nearly worked not even 40 years ago.

        19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

        by jncca on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 05:30:36 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Ad Spending Report for Week Ending 10/1 (8+ / 0-)

    $$$ per electoral vote.

    1. VA - $383,893 (D) + $263,025 (R) = $646,918
    2. OH - $282,937 (D) + $214,542 (R) = $497,479
    3. NH - $408,894 (D) + $56,254 (R) = $465,148
    4. IA - $290,741 (D) + $157,815 (R) = $448,556
    5. NV - $203,232 (D) + $198,245 (R) = $401,477   
    6. WI - $130,340 (D) + $254.308 (R) = $384,648
    7. CO - $223,192 (D) + $93,647 (R) = $316,839
    8. FL - $178,870 (D) + $121,471 (R) = $300,341
    9. NC - $49,856 (D) + $86,279 (R) = $136,135
    10. MI - $0 (D) + $68,234 (R) = $68,234

    THOUGHTS:

    1. Have Romney’s SuperPac friends forsaken him?  Swing state spending limited to small buys by Crossroads in FL and NV.
    2. The RNC rejoins the fray with moderate buys in VA, OH, and WI.
    3. Restore Our Future continues to waste money in MI and also in the only slightly more promising WI.
    4. Romney campaign on its own in NH, IA, CO, and NC.  No wonder he’s been doing so much fundraising.
    5. Obama is really going for the jugular in FL, OH, and VA.  The FL spending doesn’t look like much when I divide it by 29 electoral votes, but it is huge ($5MM+) as a raw number.
    6. Check out the disparity in NH, with Obama going very hard and Romney, not so much.
    7. CO really moving down the list.  Pretty paltry spending from the Romney campaign there.
    8. WI clearly has become an integral part of the Republican strategy.  $$$ per electoral vote for Team Romney there second only to Virginia.
    9. NC still lagging behind, although the Romney campaign has upped the ante a little from last week.

    White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

    by spiderdem on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 05:29:43 PM PDT

  •  Why Romney is so screwed - early voting (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, MBishop1, bythesea

    There is one reason why Romney is so screwed that I think many people are aware of, but which I don't think has been commented upon much, at least not explicitly.

    That is the connection between early voting and the current polls.

    People are aware both that early voting is beginning or will soon begin in many states and that Romney is substantially behind in the polls, but put those two facts together and think about it for a minute.

    The people that are voting now are voting based on their current preferences. Since Obama is ahead, this should generally mean that he is winning them, or at least over-performing given the demographics of early voters.

    What this means is that it is NOT enough for Romney to pull into the lead by election day in order to win.

    Instead, what he will have to do in order to win is pull ahead by a fairly large margin - Romney will not just have to win election day voters, but will have to win them by enough to offset the advantage that Obama will have already banked during the time (now) when Obama's been well ahead.

    Democratic votes get locked in each day as more and more early votes trickle in.

    The same goes for House, Senate, and Governor's races, of course.

    •  To flesh this point out further (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, bythesea

      Think about the 538 forecasts.

      The way Nate Silver set it up, there is a "nowcast" for what the election would look like if it were held today, and and then there's an "election day" forecast.

      The presumption is that the "election day" forecast is the real one, since after all that's when election day will be.

      But that's not true. Election day is today.

      So the REAL election day forecast is not what Nate has the "Election Day" forecast.

      Instead, it should be the Nowcast for each day of early voting weighted by the expected share of the overall vote being cast on each of those days, plus the election day forecast for the proportion of the vote expected to actually be cast on election day.

  •  volunteers incentives to continue to phone-bank, (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    According to an email to supporters, supporters of the RJC DC Chapter who make calls during designated phone-banks stand to earn:

    —Phone-bank for 50+ hours and get an ipad3 (32 gig)
    —Phone-bank for 40-49 hours and get an ipad 3 (16 gig)
    —Phone-bank for 30-39 hours and get an iPad 2 (16 gig)
    —Phone-bank for 20-29 hours and get a $100 AmEx gift card

    How much would that work out per hour?

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/...

  •  Anyone else watching WI senate debate? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, MichaelNY, askew
  •  huh, Thompson says we should do away with (5+ / 0-)

    Senate filibuster.

    •  He's lying, at least from a partisan perspective (4+ / 0-)

      I suspect there are many Republicans (and probably Dems too, but less) who would never vote to abolish it under Dem or divided government, but I have no doubt that the next time Republicans hold the trifecta they will either abolish or significantly curtail the filibuster.  They aren't stupid, they know which side their bread is buttered on.

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

      by sawolf on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 06:43:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think a decent middle ground (0+ / 0-)

        Is to lower the threshold of a filibuster down to 55.

        24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

        by HoosierD42 on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 12:39:28 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Thompson says he built Wisconsin! (8+ / 0-)

    Tommy, that state, you didnt built it! :)

  •  Both Thompson and Baldwin for getting (4+ / 0-)

    out of Afghanistan.

    I thought Baldwin's answer was pretty good.

  •  Does anyone else find Tommy's (15+ / 0-)

    "I'm not in congress, so my positions are off limit" stick incredibly annoying?

  •  VA-Lt. Gov: Sen. Ralph Northram reconsidering: (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoosierD42

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 07:43:04 PM PDT

    •  Has Perriello spoken about his 2013 plans (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      at all?

      I personally think the likeliest course is Warner runs for Governor, wins, and appoints Perriello to his seat. And he'd take a lot of heat from McDonnell and Cucinelli about not resigning the Senate so McD can appoint someone.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

      by HoosierD42 on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 12:48:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Perriello is a lot of internet hype (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sawolf, MichaelNY

        I love the guy, but he's not some sleeping giant in state politics.  He's a well-liked defeated one-term Congressman who hasn't given an indication of running for anything else in the forseeable future.

        There is nothing "likely" about Warner appointing Perriello to his seat if Warner runs for Governor and wins (the winning part would be automatic, no one can beat Warner).

        Perriello is no more likely to be appointed than anyone else.

        We have an election next year with three state offices up, and Perriello has shown no interest in any of them (he's an attorney, so he can run for A.G. as well as the other two).

        Again, love the guy, I gave him $500 for his reelect in 2010 and I never give that much to a House candidate who isn't even running anywhere near where I live or work.  And he can do whatever he wants with his life...he has a political job right now, so obviously he's staying in politics in a capacity of his choice, not leaving it altogether.

        But the talk of Perriello as a candidate needs to cool.  His window is closing and he seems unconcerned with that.  I doubt he'll ever run for anything again.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 07:15:40 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Well I didn't say it was "likely", per se (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Just that it was the likeliest course. And if Warner runs, Perriello would be the obvious choice, if he was only looking at former/current Congressmen. Boucher is too far right. Moran (and Connolly, to an extent) are too far left. Scott, in my opinion, is kind of a whiner, as he showed in the redistricting phase. So Perriello, who performed admirably in a district that was to the right of the state, and is a genuinely good politician, I think would be the smartest option.

          Of course he could look to the State legislature or even outside that, á la Michael Bennet. Or he could appoint a placeholder.

          24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

          by HoosierD42 on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 01:37:45 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  It's Scott Howell's birthday (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoosierD42, James Allen, sapelcovits

    He's one year closer to being too broken-down and decrepit to effectively represent Utah in the Senate.

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 07:52:59 PM PDT

  •  does anyone else (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, CF of Aus

    find it slightly ironic how the Chamber of Commerce got involved in CA congressional races but failed to help John Hernandez (the head of the Central California Hispanic CoC)? If they are still pretending not to be an arm of the GOP, they should stop.

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 09:26:31 AM PDT

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