John Avlon, of the Telegraph, asks Is Mitt Romney in denial? Also, Avlon suggests that Romney "seems unable to acknowledge the reality of his struggling campaign," when he claims the "polls show the race tied," and the "race is still early" when, the facts show him 6 percent behind in national head-to-heads, even worse in the electoral college, and the election is 39 days away.
“At this early stage, polls go up and polls go down. I’m tied in the national polls; both Gallup and Rasmussen have the numbers at even,” Romney told ABC News, while asserting that he didn’t just think he was going to win, he was sure of it.
Yes, candidates always say they will win elections. But there is a particular problem with this bit of bravado - Romney is basing it on made-up information. Because at the time, Gallup put Barack Obama six points ahead, 50 per cent to 44 per cent.
I'm sure Romney, and his campaign advisors know how dire their polling predicament is, and they are just playing the usual political PR spinning games to avoid the self-fulfilling prophesy dynamics of "Loss-to-the-Loser," (opposite of "Success to the Successful"), that often occurs at this stage of a desperate campaign.
But, what the Romney campaign may be overlooking is the absurdities of what they are saying to avoid Mitt Romney getting the image of "an out-of-touch loser" are becoming the primary causal effect making such perceptions worse. This is an example of the systems thinking archetype called "fixes that backfire," where the very actions they take to avoid a potential loss scenario, works to directly cause it via an unintended side effect, acting in an unseen reinforcing feedback loop that causes an exponential growth in the unwanted symptoms.
And, this escalation of the unwanted symptoms leads the unwitting actors to do more of the very counter-productive "corrective actions" that have now become the primary drivers of the problem -- absurd, implausible, and out-of-touch political spinning. And, ending up like a extreme satire of themselves - like Baghdad Bob, of Iraq denying American soldier were in Iraq even while we had been watching them for day roaring across the Iraqi desert at 60 miles per hour.
Mitt's preposterous claims of the race being "tied," and that the race is still "early" cause him to look even more like an "out-of-touch loser." Ouch! Sorry, to appear to be cruel. Going back to Avlon's language Romney's "campaign is fluctuating between moments of panic and outright denial, trying to impose its opinion on unwelcome polls."
In recent weeks, Republican bloggers and pundits have blamed the polls, accused the media of being in a liberal conspiracy with Democrats to "demoralize and diminish" conservatives, and rig polls, and, we've even seen RedState bloggers adjusting poll ratios "to put Mitt Romney ahead."
Avlon suggests this is the "bargaining stage, denial masked by rationalisations, desperately searching for silver linings and reflexively shooting the messenger."
Then, Avlon disassembles Romney's "its still early," proposition, citing a new fact from Nate Silver, I hadn't read yet:
And here too there is bad news for the Romney campaign. Nate Silver, the statistician behind the New York Times’ FiveThirtyEight blog calculates: “Of the 19 candidates who led in the polls at this stage since 1936, 18 won the popular vote (Thomas E Dewey in 1948 is the exception), and 17 won the Electoral College (Al Gore lost it in 2000, along with Mr Dewey).” In other words, while the fat lady isn’t yet singing, she is clearing her throat.
John Avlon, closes with this zinger where he closes the "feedback loop" noting that as they continue their denial of reality and try even harder to spin their alternative reality they have no credibility left, and it backfires.
The conservative echo chamber has long been so negatively obsessed with President Obama that they frankly can’t believe the polls they see — everyone they know hates the man. But it turns out that there is a downside to creating your own alternative political reality: you can’t credibly spin your way out of statistics.
It almost makes me feel sad for them. But, then when I remember the last 40 years of their sleaze ball presidential election tactics I smile thinking maybe they are finally getting what the deserve, as their "Karmic Chickens" come home to roost.
Given Ann Romney's concern about Mitt's ability to maintain his fragile "mental wellbeing" under this kind of inhumane stress, perhaps, the compassionate way forward would be to give these poor folks an opportunity to spend more quite time with family, and take a rest?