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As expected, Monday brought a poll-a-palooza, as the accumulated total of weekend polls and Monday poll releases brought the final count of polls today to 51 polls, among the highest totals of the campaign thus far.

Taken as a whole, the Monday polls present something of a "mixed bag", though the press has apparently settled on an "OMG, the race is tightening!" narrative.

This is one of those times when the press appears to be right, but is totally wrong, all at the same time. Poll watchers used to seeing Obama staked to a 4-6 point lead would probably be a touch surprised to see Obama now looking at a 2-4 point advantage.

However, a key component of understanding poll trends is getting a good look at who is doing the polling. And the bottom line on that: only one pollster (CNN/ORC) saw Mitt Romney move closer to President Obama by more than a single point.

More on that after the jump. But, first, on to the numbers:

PRESIDENTIAL POLLING:

NATIONAL (ABC News/Washington Post): Obama 49, Romney 47 (LV); Obama 49, Romney 44 (RV)

NATIONAL (American Research Group): Obama 49, Romney 46

NATIONAL (CNN/Opinion Research): Obama 50, Romney 47 (LV); Obama 50, Romney 46 (RV)

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama 49, Romney 45

NATIONAL (GWU Battleground/Politico): Obama 49, Romney 47

NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama 46, Romney 41 (LV); Obama 45, Romney 40 (RV)

NATIONAL (Merriman River Group): Obama 46, Romney 43, Others 3

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama 50, Romney 47

NATIONAL (UPI/CVoter Tracking): Obama 49, Romney 46

NATIONAL (Zogby for the Washington Times): Obama 50, Romney 41


COLORADO (We Ask America--R): Obama 49, Romney 46, Others 1

FLORIDA (Gravis--R): Obama 49, Romney 48

IOWA (Selzer for the Des Moines Register): Obama 49, Romney 45

IOWA (We Ask America--R): Obama 48, Romney 44, Others 2

MAINE (Critical Insights): Obama 52, Romney 36, Others 3

MARYLAND (Baltimore Sun/OpinionWorks): Obama 57, Romney 34

MASSACHUSETTS (MassINC for WBUR): Obama 60, Romney 32

MASSACHUSETTS (Univ. of NH for the Boston Globe): Obama 57, Romney 30, Others 2

MICHIGAN (EPIC/MRA): Obama 47, Romney 37,

MICHIGAN (We Ask America--R): Obama 52, Romney 40, Others 1

NEW HAMPSHIRE (Univ. of New Hampshire): Obama 52, Romney 37

NEW MEXICO (We Ask America--R): Obama 51, Romney 41, Others 4

NORTH CAROLINA (American Research Group): Romney 50, Obama 46, Others 1

OHIO (Columbus Dispatch Poll): Obama 51, Romney 42, Other 3

OHIO (PPP): Obama 49, Romney 45

WASHINGTON (Rasmussen): Obama 52, Romney 41, Other 3

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
FL-SEN (Gravis--R): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 43, Connie Mack IV (R) 43

HI-SEN (Merriman River Group for Civil Beat): Mazie Hirono (D) 55, Linda Lingle (R) 39

ME-SEN (Critical Insights): Angus King (I) 50, Charlie Summers (R) 28, Cynthia Dill (D) 12

MA-SEN (MassINC for WBUR): Elizabeth Warren (D) 49, Sen. Scott Brown (D) 45

MA-SEN (Univ. of NH for the Boston Globe): Elizabeth Warren (D) 43, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 38

MO-SEN (Kiley and Company for the McCaskill campaign): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 50, Todd Akin (R) 41

NM-SEN (Rasmussen): Martin Heinrich (D) 52, Heather Wilson (R) 39, Others 2

NM-SEN (We Ask America--R): Martin Heinrich (D) 52, Heather Wilson (R) 41

OH-SEN (Columbus Dispatch): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 49, Josh Mandel (R) 39


NC-GOV (PPP): Pat McCrory (R) 47, Walter Dalton (D) 37, Barbara Howe (L) 5


AZ-02 (Grove Insight for the DCCC): Rep. Ron Barber (D) 54, Martha McSally (R) 40

FL-18 (Garin-Hart-Yang for the House Majority PAC--D): Patrick Murphy (D) 52, Rep. Allen West (R) 43

FL-18 (Kimball Political Consulting--R): Patrick Murphy (D) 49, Rep. Allen West (R) 45

FL-26 (McLaughlin and Associates for undisclosed GOP client): Joe Garcia (D) 43, Rep. David Rivera (R) 33, Jose Peixoto (I) 5

GA-12 (McLaughlin and Associates for the Anderson campaign): Lee Anderson (R) 44, Rep. John Barrow (D) 43

IL-10 (McLaughlin and Associates for the Dold campaign): Rep. Bob Dold (R) 44, Brad Schneider (D) 37

IL-13 (Victoria Research for the Gill campaign): David Gill (D) 40, Rodney Davis (R) 39, John Hartman (I) 8

ME-01 (Critical Insights): Rep. Chellie Pingree (D) 60, Jon Courtney (R) 29

ME-02 (Critical Insights): Rep. Mike Michaud (D) 54, Kevin Raye (R) 39

MA-06 (Univ. of New Hampshire for the Boston Globe): Richard Tisei (R) 37, Rep. John Tierney (D) 31

NJ-02 (Stockton Polling Institute): Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R) 55, Cassandra Shober (D) 35

NC-08 (NRCC IVR Poll): Richard Hudson (R) 50, Rep. Larry Kissell (D) 41

RI-01 (Fleming and Associates for WPRI-TV): Rep. David Ciliclline (D) 44, Brendan Doherty (R) 38, David Vogel (I) 6

TX-23 (OnMessage for the Canseco campaign): Rep. Quico Canseco (R) 47, Pete Gallego (D) 37

WI-07 (FM3 for the Kreitlow campaign): Rep. Sean Duffy (R) 44, Pat Kreitlow (D) 41

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump...

Fact: Leaving aside that rather silly-looking Washington Times/Zogby poll (and...yes...I checked. This was one of their phone polls, not the interactive garbage), the average lead for Barack Obama in Monday's nine national polls was Obama +3.1 percent.

This is what has led no shortage of journos to declare today that the race for the White House is tightening between President Obama and Mitt Romney. But this is based more on what the "sense" of where the race was a week ago (when Obama led in a number of national polls by 4-7 points) rather than anything concrete.

To wit, let's look at today's polls, and how much they've change since the previous incarnation:

10/1/2012 National polling, compared to previous polls (poll release date in parentheses)

ABC/Washington Post: From Obama +1 to Obama +2 (9/11/12)
American Research Group: From Obama +2 to Obama +3 (9/21/12)
CNN/Opinion Research: From Obama +6 to Obama +3 (9/10/12)
Gallup Tracking: From Obama +2 to Obama +4 (9/24/12)+
GWU/Battleground/Politico: From Obama +3 to Obama +2 (9/24/12)
Ipsos/Reuters Tracking: From Obama +6 to Obama +5 (9/26/12)+
Merriman River Group: Does Not Apply (First Poll of Cycle)
Rasmussen Tracking: From Obama +0 to Obama +3 (9/28/12)+
UPI/CVoter Tracking: From Obama +3 to Obama +3 (9/23/12)+

(+)--Tracking polls compared to most recent tracking poll with a totally unique sample, which means Rasmussen dates back three days, Ipsos-Reuters five days, and UPI/CVoter and Gallup seven days.

So, for those scoring at home (and pulling out Merriman River, which is making their first foray of the cycle into WH polling), Obama's current lead with these eight polls sits at 3.1 percent. BUT...and this is important...his previous lead with these same pollsters was: 2.9 percent.

In other words, these polls are essentially unchanged. CNN got a lot of attention because of the fairly strong movement, but Rasmussen has moved the same margin, in Obama's favor, since last week. Of the eight pollsters, four have moved incrementally in Obama's direction, three have moved incrementally in Romney's direction, and one didn't move, at all. That would seem to strongly undermine the media-fed notion of a "tightening race".

What would make the notion of a "closer" race credible? Well, for one thing, movement of more than a single point or two points would be helpful. Movement across the board, from a critical mass of pollsters, would also help.

Fox News, Bloomberg/Selzer, PPP, and YouGov all had Obama leads of 5-6 points last week. If they all dropped to two points this week, maybe you would be onto something. Until then, all this talk of a "tightening presidential election" in advance of the debates appear to be largely hype.

In other polling news...

  • A recurrent theme today was "et tu, Republican pollsters?" Two particular GOP pols crying in their beer tonight, courtesy of GOP-affiliated firms, are New Mexico Senate candidate Heather Wilson and Florida freshman Rep. Allen West. Wilson had to watch today as a pair of GOP pollsters (the House of Ras and We Ask America) both put her down double digits to Democrat Martin Heinrich. That was especially damaging, seeing as she was getting a little mileage out of her own internal poll last week showing that she was down to a disadvantage of just a single point. West, meanwhile, got hosed by Massachusetts-based Kimball Consulting. They have routinely shown GOP Sen. Scott Brown doing better than most, but they turned around and put West four points behind Democrat Patrick Murphy. This gave the Democrats the opening to turn the knife, as they released their own polling today showing Murphy up 9 points. Had Kimball not dropped their poll, the Democratic poll might not have looked as credible, since no poll to date had given Murphy a lead of more than a single point.
  • Now that Republican gaffe machine Todd Akin cannot be replaced on the ballot, you have to love the fact that the campaign of Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill decided to lower the boom with a new poll out of the Show-Me State. Her poll shows that she holds a pretty solid 50-41 lead over Akin. But what is even more awesome: it shows that she had a six-point lead in an early September survey. One that...ahem...was never released. Well played, team McCaskill. Well played!
  • Slight dust alert: two of the polls today (the McLaughlin polls in GA-12 and IL-10) are roughly a month old. They just came to our attention over the weekend. Both of those numbers, oddly enough, are not bad for the Democrats in question. Perhaps I am projecting here, but I think the general consensus of most House-watchers was that veteran Democratic Rep. John Barrow was a goner, courtesy of redistricting. So, a one-point poll might actually be better for the Democrat than the betting line. Also, the seven-point lead for Bob Dold (!) might seem impressive for a swing-y district, but it is actually a few points closer than a previous Republican poll in the district, which had Dold leading by ten points (42-32).

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 06:30 PM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Vote for Warren in Boston.com debate poll (17+ / 0-)

    especially if you live in Massachusetts as they might filter out the out-of-staters.  

    http://www.boston.com/...

    "The Democratic Party is not our friend: it is the only party we can negotiate with." Rebecca Solnit The Rain on Our Parade.

    by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 06:33:18 PM PDT

  •  Every night since Steve got back from vacation. (11+ / 0-)

    I've been one of the first three people to read the polling wrap. I'm a nerd.

    The braying sheep on my TV screen make this boy shout -- make this boy scream -- I'm going underground...

    by jamfan on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 06:38:14 PM PDT

  •  are any pollsters adding Gary Johnson (9+ / 0-)

    to see how he divides up the undecideds and soft Romney/Obama supporters?

    Oregon: Sure...it's cold. But it's a damp cold.

    by Keith930 on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 06:41:26 PM PDT

  •  thanks for some hope. (9+ / 0-)

    i worry.

    heather wilson and allen west should ride off into the sunset together. no one would miss them.

    "With malice toward none, with charity for all..." -Abraham Lincoln not a modern republican

    by live1 on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 06:41:46 PM PDT

    •  B-R-U-T-A-L (4+ / 0-)

      No other word for that

    •  Nate tweeted about it (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      CoyoteMarti, IM, Supavash, bontemps2012

      points out it is "bouncy." They had Obama +25 in one 08 poll, so don't get carried away.

      •  And that '08 poll was late October (11+ / 0-)

        It was just a week out, 58-33!  They polled again on election eve and found a credible 11-point lead; Obama won by 9.6%.

        This is an absurd outlier.

        But Obama does lead in NH, no doubt.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 07:47:40 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  This is the "Live Free or Die" state. (0+ / 0-)

          It's also tightly communal. Go north and there's deep poverty.

          Simple tests: who is worthy? Who measures up, for example: to the example of Mr. Lincoln?

          Romney's "47%" statements and his ignorance are settling in. My Mom was born in New Hampshire. They don't suffer fools or bullies very well.

          - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

          "There are 47 percent of the people who will vote for the president no matter what. All right, there are 47 percent who are with him:

          -- Who are dependent upon government
          -- Who believe that they are victims
          -- Who believe the government has a responsibility to care for them
          -- Who believe that they are entitled to health care, to food, to housing, to you-name-it

          That, that’s an entitlement, and the government should give it to them. And they will vote for this president no matter what. . . . These are people who pay no income tax . . . my job is not to worry about those people. I’ll never convince them they should take personal responsibility and care for their lives."

          Running his hateful mouth while ignorant:

          10% = retirees on Social Security
          23% = working poor and students with part-time jobs
          7%  = working lower-middle with children
          6%  = Disabled, military disabled, vow-of-poverty religious, many of the unemployed, and the less than 2% "dependent" on welfare (mainly women with kids)

          The 47%. Allowing for a rounding process.

          - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

          When people read what Romney said -- word for word -- he will have trouble making the grade to be a successor to Mr. Lincoln.

          The Truth goes marching on.

          Here, by way of bulletin boards and fliers in the mail. Email doesn't hurt.

    •  So much for Romney's path (5+ / 0-)

      going through the Granite State.

      Guess he'll have to win here in WI. Heh heh.

    •  I'll Say This, At the Risk of Getting Flamed... (11+ / 0-)

      UNH is known for having polls fly all over the freaking map. I lost faith in them in 2006, when they had the two Democratic House candidates up 5 one day, and down 5 something like three days later. Just not something that inspires confidence.

      The polls we saw last week (5-8 points) sound a lot more tethered to the planet.

      "Every one is king when there's no one left to pawn" (BRMC)
      Contributing Editor, Daily Kos/Daily Kos Elections

      by Steve Singiser on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 08:12:04 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I definitely like the trends so far (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Sherri in TX, bontemps2012

    I just hope we get out the vote and not only re-elect the president but take back control of the House (and keep control of the Senate).

    "First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win." --Gandhi

    by alaprst on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 06:52:11 PM PDT

  •  The media unfortunately will never distinguish (10+ / 0-)

    between polls getting tighter, and polls coming out from pollsters who have been tighter all along.  

  •  FL-Sen... blech (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    auapplemac

    Gravis is a GOP outfit though so...

    I'm hoping Team Obama's got their defense lined up for Team Romney's October surprise coming soon. I know many are rolling their eyes at the desperation in using the jimmy Carter strategy, focusing now on foreign policy failures presented by the Benghazi attack, but if their whole strategy it to turn their base out to the voting booth, this could be it unless we turn things around on them...

    Point out how quick to jump the gun Romney is... Do you want someone like this as your commander in chief?

    "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

    by xsonogall on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 06:58:14 PM PDT

  •  Ras preparing for debate (5+ / 0-)

    Regardless of the final outcome of the debate he will probably show Romney edging up.  Tightening is a bit concerning...possibly people starting to shake off the 47% remark?  At any rate, this should be something Obama hammers hard in the debates, although I suspect Romney has been prepping for that.

    Polling until we really get a post mortem on the debates isn't going to be particularly interesting.  Obama goes in with a position of strength and, while I personally am not convinced he's a great debater (although by far he is definitely a master orator), has demonstrated he is certainly capable of taking a hit and shrugging it off.  Make Romney go on the offensive and make him look silly will probably be the greatest way to capitalize on this, similar to what happened with McCain, who was also banking on the debates in 08.

  •  Intrade has been interesting of late; (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash, divineorder, pademocrat

    Romney has gained 5% from his cratering at 19% since Saturday and Obama has lost almost the same % red arrowing down daily from 78% to 74%, though it is hardly a hemorrhage it seems at odds with what is happening in the swing states.. dunno, I guess I'm not following the almighty news story one might attribute such a swing to :) Statistical noise perhaps.. still.. and I imagine it adds to this odd sense of faux Mittmentum that some are trying to push as a rather crap narrative...

    "Never trust a man who, when left alone with a tea cosy, doesn't try it on!!"

    by EcosseNJ on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 07:02:20 PM PDT

  •  Pennsylvania Voter Reg Weekly Update. (15+ / 0-)

    Republicans come in third statewide again in new registrations:
    About 14,000 Democrats; 8,000 Unaffiliated; and 7,000 Republicans.

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 07:17:18 PM PDT

  •  Obama has this... (6+ / 0-)

    as I told my friends Obama is going to win and the Dems will hold the senate so you should focus your efforts on election Democrats to the house.
    Though I give an exclusion to help in AZ because Flake is only up by a few.

    Pencils aren't for eating. Trust me.

    by Hamtree on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 07:28:31 PM PDT

    •  Thing about the Senate is (4+ / 0-)

      Most of the races are so swingy that a 1% change on election day could mean like, 52 seats in the Senate or 57.

      MA, NV, IN, MO, MT, VA, ND, AZ could all come down to very small margins (to varying degrees for each one, Indiana and Montana seem to be the closest).

      •  True for Indiana (0+ / 0-)

        Richard MorlockMourdock is running about 10 points behind the egregious Mike Pence.

        But our GOTV is far better than theirs. More and better volunteers. Better than 2 to 1 ratio, and no Tea Party liars on our side. Good GOTV can move an election as much as 5 points, and we should get help as the President's numbers continue to improve.

        I do not expect Gregg to beat Pence for Governor, and I don't expect the President to carry Indiana as he did four years ago, but neither is impossible, and we are hard at it. I do expect us to win this Senate seat, and several others that the Republicans thought they had sewn up.

        America—We built that!

        by Mokurai on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 12:38:46 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  And NV (0+ / 0-)

      Shelley Berkley has actually been closing the gap in the past few weeks. On the average that race is closer than Flake and Carmona's.

      But I agree with you; at this point, there might be a lot more to be gained by concentrating on the House.

  •  When you dig through these numbers (11+ / 0-)

    as Steve has you realize that Obama strengthened his lead among a number of conservative leaning pollsters.  

    The state polls look great.  +9 in OH, double digits in NH? A sign of things to come in other states.

    With polls like these it's no wonder that Team Obama has been pretty quiet about the debate and has actually provided more info on their pre and post debate activities.  They intend to use the debate like a convention: use a media event to sell your plan and drive up energy and turnout.

    Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

    by khyber900 on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 07:28:52 PM PDT

  •  Wake me when you see a Romney lead somewhere... (12+ / 0-)

    ...not a call for complacency, obviously, but seeing a list of about 20 polls of the nation and of swing states and the only one showing Romney over Obama is an ARG poll of North Carolina means Obama is well in control of this election.  Among the tiny sample of true undecideds there may have been ever-so-slight movement to Obama during the height of the 47% disaster and some of it might have gone back to undecided. But nowhere are we seeing pollsters showing Romney ahead. Nowhere.  Things can change, obviously, but barring an external event of mammoth proportions or a catastrophic performance at the debate by Obama, the Presidential race will not change much. The electorate has mostly made up its mind. And in the swing states, where coverage has been more intense than elsewhere, opinions are even more solidified.  

    •  EXACTLY! (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MetroGnome

      A lead of 2 points is still a LEAD! I see few, if ANY, legitimate polls where Rmoney LEADS. Do you know what they call the team that wins the Superbowl by one point? The Superbowl Champions!!!

      That doesn't mean we should get complacent, but as this page put it so succinctly a few weeks ago, Obama is WINNING. Now lets GOTV for our POTUS and do likewise for the Senate (which I think we'll keep) and the House (which looks VERY doable IMO).

      A village can not reorganize village life to suit the village idiot.

      by METAL TREK on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 09:41:05 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Anyone else worried about this Libya thing? (7+ / 0-)

    Right wing news sites (e.g. the NY Post) are salivating over it.  Salon runs an article saying that Republicans are going to put out evidence that President Obama knew the attack was coming in advance and did nothing ( http://www.salon.com/... ) and CNN around 7:15pm eastern was running a segment where the interviewer was using the word "cover up" when asking some Republican dude questions about it.

    I gotta think that "Osama is dead" trumps this, but if the Drudge/Rush/Fox folks are talking all Libya all the time then it can't help.

    Just totally nervous that they'll throw everything they have against the wall and that something will stick.

    Democrats *do* have a plan for Social Security - it's called Social Security. -- Ed Schultz

    by FredFred on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 07:47:25 PM PDT

    •  ach let them, it makes the red redder (12+ / 0-)

      Then there's this from the Beeb;

      Americans do not like looking weak or adrift abroad. But nor do they seem to be in the mood for more foreign interventions, or eager to police the world.

      So if Mr Romney takes the route advocated by some advisers, it is certainly not a clear road to victory.

      But above all else, most Americans care more about the economy and jobs than turmoil in the Middle East.

      Suggesting new ways of building up America's debt with more concentration on the US image abroad may not be a path to victory.

      http://www.bbc.co.uk/...

      "Never trust a man who, when left alone with a tea cosy, doesn't try it on!!"

      by EcosseNJ on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 07:55:23 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'm worried too... (5+ / 0-)

      ...but the one thing that gives me a little bit of comfort is that Romney's initial response to this whole thing was terrible and could provide enough defense to fend him off for the last month (if Team Obama does it's usual magic).  

      Honestly this whole debacle should have been a gift to their campaign (it's absolutely sick how Romney and his advisors have been so "gleeful" about this whole thing), but they blew it from the start with their "shoot first, aim later" response.  Now the choice is, do we want a commander-in-chief who is going to be deliberate and careful or do we want one who will have us "flaunting our strength" all over the place the second something goes down?  It's sort of like the economy, how it's not really that great right now - but if you compare Romney's plan to Obama's, given that choice, the people likely will go with the slow, plodding one.

      I do admit though that we need a Stephanie Cutter video as a quick response to this potential deluge of attacks.  It is coming and I hope Team Obama is prepared to parry as hard as they've had to.  Likely the toughest challenge they'll face before November.

      "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

      by xsonogall on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 08:28:52 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The economy is still the toughest challenge (4+ / 0-)

        not Libya which most Americans aren't focused on.  If Republicans want to focus on Libya and not the economy, it will be to their loss.

        President Obama, January 9, 2012: "Change is hard, but it is possible. I've Seen it. I've Lived it."

        by Drdemocrat on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 09:04:20 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Focusing on Libya rather than the economy.... (0+ / 0-)

          ...will help them not because it's more important, but because it will finally help take some pressure off of Romney and his 47% disaster and put Obama on the defensive...  If the MSM buys the narrative the GOP and FOX propaganda is trying to sell, then it can only help them at this point since there really was nowhere else to go but up.  

          I expected something like this in October though.  I think all of us were.  The party of Rove and Limbaugh is not going to go out without a fight.  We just have to fight back harder.

          "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

          by xsonogall on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 09:16:50 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Nope, there's no way you can push (3+ / 0-)

            the two basic issues of the story (embassy should have been better guarded and the administration took a week to determine it was a deliberate attack) every day for the next month without the arguments quickly losing force as a political issue.  

            The issues are just too narrow to bring up repetitively for the next month.  I think most voters recognize it was an isolated mistake and I think Obama has a good counter:  we'll hunt down the perpetrators just like OBL.

            Sure the GOP will try to connect it up to broader foreign policy issues, but what if nothing notable is really happening foreign policy wise?  The world is on fire, except it isn't.  There are very effective counters when the issue is broadened, such as, we shouldn't rashly start new wars in Libya and Iran.  We need to be careful and deliberate.

            Of course, if the last batch of economic numbers will control.  Only if these numbers are middling will foreign policy have a remote chance of being relevant in the last two weeks (barring a new world crisis).

            •  Hope you're right. (0+ / 0-)

              But with the MSM now willing to play along (like David Gregory - see rec list), this will blow up without proper pushback. We need it now.

              "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

              by xsonogall on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 06:53:54 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  YES! I've written about this here from the day (3+ / 0-)

      after the attack including a few today.

      Once it was determined that the Consulate was poorly guarded, I figured the R's would begin the "who knew what, when" witch hunt.

      Now that the Administration has fumbled getting out the facts  by having contradictory stories, I predicted a widening of the Rs playing up this story.

      I don't know how or if the network news programs are buying into this event, but CNN has been doing stories for days punching at the Prez. It could make some not-so-firm Obama supporters give Romney another look.

      Stay tuned.

      Progressives will win only when we convince a majority that they, too, are Progressive. And... It’s the Supreme Court, stupid!

      by auapplemac on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 08:40:25 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Not really... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      rolodomo, KingofSpades, PorridgeGun

      Basically, they think it's a "scandal" 'cos the initial reports suggested an unruly mob, but when people looked into it more closely, saw there was a terrorist connection, too.

      That's it.  Pretty weak.

      The GOP has been screaming wolf for so long that no one seems to be paying attention anymore.  If there was something really damaging to Obama, the MSM would be all over it!  They hate the president with a passion.  And right now... nothing.

      That doesn't mean that Romney will try to run with it, but it's like running with scissors.  There's a good chance you'll cut yourself in the process, which is why they are so hesitant to embrace it.  I mean, it's a real reach to make this into some sort of epic "scandal", especially since the Libyan people took on the attackers themselves to bring them to justice.  

      The GOP might have been able to "create" news out of this if they had congressional hearings and all that, but congress is in recess until the elections.  Oh well.

      I'm sure that they will flog this dead horse as long as they can next year.

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 08:42:32 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Saw the CNN piece... (4+ / 0-)

      the big story was Susan Rice's "talking points" didn't include the possibility of a deliberate attack.  That is no game changer.

    •  Libya? Most Americans could care less. (3+ / 0-)

      President Obama, January 9, 2012: "Change is hard, but it is possible. I've Seen it. I've Lived it."

      by Drdemocrat on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 09:02:46 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Is this like the Libyan whitey tape? n/t (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      IM

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 09:13:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Osama is dead DOES trump that IMO (6+ / 0-)

      particularly when Americans are more concerned with economy. Plus, if they want to go down that road, we can always go with GWB & his PDB of 8/16/01. Do the Repukes REALLY want to go down that road? Then again, what else DO they have?

      A village can not reorganize village life to suit the village idiot.

      by METAL TREK on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 09:36:05 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  They gotta lie about something. (0+ / 0-)

      Might as well be Libya.

      (P.S. them Black teenagers in the White House steal silverware! Pass it on.)

  •  Great segment this morning! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser, auapplemac

    Really good break down and some good back and forth

    --Enlighten the people, generally, and tyranny and oppressions of body and mind will vanish like spirits at the dawn of day. - Thomas Jefferson--

    by idbecrazyif on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 07:50:15 PM PDT

    •  Thank You!!! (0+ / 0-)

      It's awful early for me (I'm west coast, so my segment is 6:45-7:00 AM), but always worth it to get a chance to chat with Kagro... :)

      "Every one is king when there's no one left to pawn" (BRMC)
      Contributing Editor, Daily Kos/Daily Kos Elections

      by Steve Singiser on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 08:13:45 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  This really IS election-related, and it can't (24+ / 0-)

    wait til the Open Thread, so I just have ta gotta post this little gem I found from Borowitz ~

  •  How is beating Romney everywhere a "modest (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jan4insight, MetroGnome, bontemps2012

    lead"?

    "To hunt a species to extinction is not logical."--Spock, in Star Trek IV.

    by Wildthumb on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 08:08:24 PM PDT

    •  It's not a big enough lead everywhere (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, auapplemac, SoCalLiberal

      I liken it to watching a basketball game where one team has led the entire way by 4-8 points.  If it stays that close until the last minute, there's always a chance of a comeback win if the other team catches fire late.

      "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

      by xsonogall on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 08:30:25 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  There's just one thing. I don't think your analogy (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, bontemps2012

        works. Basketball games can see-saw quickly. Political polls can build, and sometimes are irreversible. A basketball game
        is never irreversible. Political polls are a different animal entirely. And if you look at how polarized the country is, I think Obama's leads are huge, comparatively.  I don't think you could ever have a wide split any more as long as this country remains as divided as it is.

        "To hunt a species to extinction is not logical."--Spock, in Star Trek IV.

        by Wildthumb on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 08:36:58 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  You don't think things can change... (3+ / 0-)

          ...quickly with a month left?  I believe that saying that a week is an eternity in politics.  Most voters are stupid and have amnesia (talk about almost half the country believing that this economy is Obama's fault).  Already there are hints that the MSM is going to bite on this Benghazigate attack where Obama allegedly covered up some information, which will finally take the 47% debacle pressure off of Romney for a week as "journalists" follow the bright shiny ball bouncing the other way.  I won't be surprised if Obama will have to play defense for a week or so on this, which is what Team Romney has been hoping for for months now.

          It's the final minute.  I'll concede your point that the country is polarized, so I'll say our lead is about 6.  It's a somewhat comfortable lead in basketball...  but it is not a guaranteed win yet by any means.  Anything can happen.  We just need to not choke this thing away and we should stay on the attack.

          "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

          by xsonogall on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 08:53:18 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I'm not saying to not keep on the attack. I'm (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike, dufffbeer, Delilah

            going to hang in there. But these old memes like "a month is an eternity in politics" only work to a certain extent (and sometimes don't work at all. I think this election is breaking the mold in lots of ways.) Obama has been leading for months now, and people just don't like Romney. I usually am nervous till the end, but I don't feel that way this time.

            And even if Romney gets a "bounce" from the debates, I think he won't hold it. Just my gut feeling this time. We'll just agree to disagree.

            "To hunt a species to extinction is not logical."--Spock, in Star Trek IV.

            by Wildthumb on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 09:17:01 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Believe me I wish I could see it your way (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Wildthumb

              I have a couple of friends who are feeling very confident too.  Not that it's bad - in fact I agree that it's better to feel confident going into the last month because it's always a better feeling to be running up the score than just fighting to get back in the game.

              Don't mind me, just jumpy.  I guess I'll be part of the side that balances out you confident folk.  

              "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

              by xsonogall on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 09:24:28 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  It's more like a baseball game where (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        xsonogall, The Caped Composer

        we're leading by 3 runs in the 8th inning and have to get the last 6 outs

        •  I can see that too, in that... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          ...anything can happen in a baseball game.  A team can come back from a 5 run deficit in the 9th inning (like OH SoS Jon Husted stealing the election with bogus numbers?  Rick Scott purging 400,000 votes because they went to Obama?  something way out there but conceivable.)

          Although elections, you can run out the clock.  All we have to do is hold this lead until November...  There is no clock in baseball.

          "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

          by xsonogall on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 09:27:28 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Baseball (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike

            Some years ago the World series was won at the last game, last inning, 2out, 2 strikes, and a homerun bringing in 3.

            I remember watching the manager sitting there glum, then suddenly you watched his face change to glee in 3 seconds.

            •  The Shot heard around the World? (0+ / 0-)

              Involved the Dodgers??

              •  Nope; that was the first game (0+ / 0-)

                of that series. This was Joe Carter winning for the Blue Jays in 1993. The problem with this analogy is that that was the only time in WS history that this has happened (Mazeroski's HR came in a tied game.) It is not by any stretch of the imagination something that happens anywhere close to regularly. It's really time to put most of our energy downballot . . .

                "Lone catch of the moon, the roots of the sigh of an idea there will be the outcome may be why?"--from a spam diary entitled "The Vast World."

                by bryduck on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 08:58:28 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

    •  Because it's less than a touchdown (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, auapplemac

      A modest lead is 6 or less because of margin of error on most polls.  A lead of 7 or more is close to having ads pulled from your state.

    •  Most Leads Within Margin... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, IM

      It is a lead...I am not going to be a jackass like so many media headline writers and call it "a tie".

      But we don't benefit from deluding ourselves. 3.1 percent nationally is a slight advantage, nothing less, nothing more. The swing states are all in Obama's direction, but not enormously so.

      "Every one is king when there's no one left to pawn" (BRMC)
      Contributing Editor, Daily Kos/Daily Kos Elections

      by Steve Singiser on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 09:41:31 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Romney is making up some ground (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    auapplemac, belzaboo

    There is clearly some movement in his direction. Obama, don't take the debates lightly! They are very critical to keep up the momentum. The GOP leaning voters all now know the 47% comment, the car elevator, the dog on the roof, but the economy is still not great. Lets not underestimate Romney.

    •  I don't think so (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      Other than undecided Romney leaners switching to Romney, I don't see any real movement.

      I would also add that a lot of Obama's increase post-convention were Obama leaners coming home.

      It's getting closer to decision time and neither candidate gave his leaners a reason to leave.

    •  Debates are absolutely critical (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, tari

      The media has played them up to be his last stand, and he has prepared for them more so than Obama, who still ostensibly has a "day job".  Romney knows he is out of game changers, and this is his final one.  

      If Romney comes out as a winner, and we see a bad jobs report on Friday, he has the potential to draw this race close.  The timing of these two events has every capacity to slingshot him out of his doldrums.

      However, Romney can't simply have a "good" night, he needs a great one.  Obama has the edge in that he goes into the debate with the lead, meaning that playing it "safe" is sufficient.  We saw this in the GOP debate, where the candidates traded leads by being too aggressive.  He has this pressure to make just enough to get his point across without letting Obama get a "there you go again" moment in.  

      It's going to be interesting to say the least.  Obama's "good" or "great" night, conversely, may well mean control of the House or a 55 seat majority in the Senate, so all options are on the table.

    •  Obama is already at 50% in most polls. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, jj32, pademocrat

      That means he is winning.

      President Obama, January 9, 2012: "Change is hard, but it is possible. I've Seen it. I've Lived it."

      by Drdemocrat on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 09:07:11 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I thought it was "over"? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Sun dog

    He only employs his passion who can make no use of his reason. - Cicero

    by SpamNunn on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 08:15:02 PM PDT

  •  NJ-02 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    redrelic17, The Caped Composer

    As usual, Frank Lobiondo (R) cruises to reelection in his D+1 district.  That district has a lot of retirees.   Someone should tell them he supported vouchercare.

  •  Writer in New Scientist says Election is done deal (6+ / 0-)

    Jim Giles, based in San Francisco says The US presidential election is no contest.

    While poll after poll plots a close race, you can also find calculations that show the odds are against Romney by now. Why the discrepancy? Giles explains:

    ...To answer that question, think about what polls actually are. They are often taken as an indication of who will win the election. But polls only provide a snapshot, often with a large margin of error, of who would win if the election took place today. That's very different from what we really care about, which is the candidate most likely to win the real thing in November. That's a forecast. It's what FiveThirtyEight and PredictWise provide, and it's a more complex beast than a poll.
    emphasis added

        Giles goes on to explain what makes the forecast models more complex than simple polling, and takes a stab at why the 'horse race' story is the one that keeps getting played up. As he notes, it's the kind of thing that sells newspapers and draws eyeballs. The media finds a close contest easier to market. But as Giles notes:

    ...I remember where I was when John McCain selected the deeply divisive Sarah Palin as his running mate in 2008 - an event that supposedly redefined the race. Two weeks later Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy. It was genuine drama, the stuff that sells newspapers and advertising space. But it didn't change the way people voted. The scientific predictions gave McCain minimal chance all the way through the 2008 race, and he duly lost. The forecasts are similar for Romney. The race is not tight, and the only honest approach is to say so.
    emphasis added

    There are an awful lot of media types hedging their bets and lying to us if Giles is right. (Or they're just incompetent.) There are a lot of Republicans who are working hard to convince themselves that if Romney doesn't win, it will be because the election was stolen.

    Interesting times ahead.

    "No special skill, no standard attitude, no technology, and no organization - no matter how valuable - can safely replace thought itself."

    by xaxnar on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 08:25:42 PM PDT

    •  People who make firm predications this far out (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      and before even one debate should be ignored.

      Unless Obama was up by 10+ everywhere he needs to be, I wouldn't waste my time reading any of this.

      Progressives will win only when we convince a majority that they, too, are Progressive. And... It’s the Supreme Court, stupid!

      by auapplemac on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 08:47:00 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Using Romney's personal hatefulness... (0+ / 0-)

      to bust up the Base of the Republican Party -- that is what matters.

      -- The 47% hatefulness

      -- The whole spew against useless people

      What the Far Right are selling is racism.

      What voters, particularly older voters hear is hatred of retirees and hatred of low-skill, not-so-bright people.

      The Republican Base is Christian.

      The officeholder Republicans are not.

  •  Paul Sadler, TX Democrat for US Senate could (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    xsonogall, pademocrat

    be the upset of this election!

    I really hope so.  Hutchison was bad, Bush toady Cornyn worse, but this teabagger Lopez is over the top


    Sadler says debate will expose Cruz's extremism
    WILL WEISSERT, Associated Press | Monday, October 1, 2012 | Updated: Monday, October 1, 2012 5:24pm

    Move Single Payer Forward? Join 18,000 Doctors of PNHP and 185,000 member National Nurses United

    by divineorder on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 08:26:17 PM PDT

  •  Virginia (7+ / 0-)

    I feel like Virginia has been very underp olled while WI and MI have been over polled. I think the big guys should be in there every week.

    2012: It's about the Supreme Court. Follow me on Twitter @farrellmcmanus

    by HarlemUSA on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 08:26:22 PM PDT

  •  wtf up with NH? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    We felt the wrath of the teabaggers last election cycle. If this poll is legit, it indicates a wave election for Obama. NH went very democratic in 2008. It went HARD right last election cycle. We could have a wave here folks...

    http://punkitechs.blogspot.com/ (Punk, Technology, politics-my blog)

    by greenpunx on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 08:29:21 PM PDT

  •  Very small correction from the resident media geek (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, CoyoteMarti, pademocrat

    Those Massachusetts polls are from "WBUR-FM." There's no "WBUR-TV."

    (WBUR-FM is the big NPR news station serving Boston and vicinity. Not many radio stations out there that are big enough to do their own polling, but WBUR is one of the few.)

    Intended to be a factual statement.

    by ipsos on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 08:31:36 PM PDT

  •  NC back to Romney in the 538 Nowcast (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Supavash

    Pretty heavily actually, but another narrow Obama lead should bring it back.

  •  Without knowing the demographics of these polls (0+ / 0-)

    they really don't tell us much.  I believe the the media wants a close race.  So all they have to do is have more repubs in the poll then before.  And there is the close race.  I also see the national polls closer than the state polls.  Which only makes sense if 2/3 of the poll is from the center of the US.

  •  GA-12 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    growingMajorityMN

    Damn, there's a lot of turnips just fell off the truck.  Anderson has to be the dumbest dumbfuck running for office anywhere.  A stupendously stupid simpleton. Every time I see one of his tractor signs around town I want to stop and offer to sell the homeowner my deed to the Brooklyn Bridge.

  •  RJC in Pennsylvania (4+ / 0-)

    The Republican Jewish Coalition is running a few anti-Obama ads in the Philadelphia Media Market.

    There is also a truly pathetic anti-Obama ad featuring Artur Davis. I can't imagine his whining to the camera will move anybody. He sounded like he was on muscle relaxants.

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 08:43:06 PM PDT

  •  anyone else also noticing that Obama is at (8+ / 0-)

    at least 49 or 50 in almost every poll listed here, state or national?

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 09:00:18 PM PDT

  •  John Tierney appears to be in serious trouble. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, xsonogall

    That's the third poll in a row to show him substantially behind. Can anybody in MA enlighten us into what his problem is? Not at all good for our chances of retaking the House to have an incumbent Democrat losing in such a blue state.

    If there is no accountability for those who authorized torture, we can no longer say that we are a nation of laws, not men.

    by MikePhoenix on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 09:13:26 PM PDT

    •  His wife and brother, I think.... (0+ / 0-)

      ...were found guilty of corruption of some sort.  The local media has just been relentless hounding this guy over his family's troubles.  I'm afraid that in the Scott Brown era, where MA residents are OK with voting for a republican, he's probably toast.  The MA GOP picked a good challenger.  He'll probably get his two years.  If he plays his cards right, maybe more.

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 09:17:42 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  First openly gay Republican congressman (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        Should be interesting.

        That said, couldn't care less if he voted with us 50% of the time if the gavel is still in Boehner's hands.  Any chance Tierney still pulls this off?  His favorables are in the toilet.

        "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

        by xsonogall on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 09:47:14 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  He may be dragged over the finish line... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          askew

          ...by Obama straight ticket voters.  It's his only chance.  He's been pounded mercilessly by the media who just won't quit and his responses suck as much as to be expected from a guy who's never had a competitive race.

          GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

          by LordMike on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 09:51:54 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Isn't Obama up by like 20+? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike

            Gahd if Tierney can't come up with a good enough defense to be able to survive during a presidential election with the Dem candidate up by close to 20 in some polls, he probably doesn't deserve it....  

            Then again the Chamber of Commerce and GOP Super PACs have been targeting the house seats for a while now since Romney was falling in the polls right?  Tough to beat that kind of money.

            "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

            by xsonogall on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 10:00:52 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Not the first (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, kbroers

          Jim Kolbe (R-AZ) was the first.  Although Tisei would be the first Republican out at the time of his election.  I hope he loses though.  Gay Republicans sicken me to the core.  

          Check out my new blog: http://socalliberal.wordpress.com/

          by SoCalLiberal on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 10:45:38 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Funny (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        I read the Elections Pollling Wrap on a regular basis and I had no idea the shady shit Tierney was into.  The first two R internals were just poo pooed away, no mention of the glaring fact that the sitting congressman is in serious trouble for his ties to the illegal family gambling operation.

        There is truth on all sides. The question is how much.

        by slothlax on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 12:27:05 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  I'm holding a bag ... (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, PassionateJus, Delilah, wu ming

    I'm looking inside it ... Do you know what I see?

    This election, for Obama.

    Nov. 7 we'll look back and wonder why the angst.

    'Benghazigate.'  Sher.  A game-changer on the order of McCain's "Today, we are all Georgians."

    Plus, the news this week will be debate No. 1 and the Friday jobs report, the latter of which I fear much more than any GOP riff on Libya.  And I don't really fear it.

    Because ... I'm holding a bag ...

    •  I am only concerned about jobs + debate (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, Delilah

      not either on its own.  If the jobs report is bad but Obama comes out slightly ahead in the debate, the most that will happen is that Obama cannot expand on his lead significantly, and that's if people even care about the report at all at this point (I mean, the only poll that ever shows the jobs report mattering is Rasmussen, and he always shows Obama up a handful of pts before the report so he can get the race tied up after it comes out to claim an effect that no other pollsters see).  

      If the debate is bad but the report is good, Obama could conversely stanch some of the Mittmentum that might build up if Romney is perceived as winning the debate.

      It's only if the debate is bad and the report is bad that we see a real cause for concern.  Romney would get momentum that dominates at least 2 weeks of critical airwaves time and Obama will be the one having to curb that enthusiasm some other way.  

      There are tea leaves in this though.  Manufacturing is up for the first time since May, and the Gallup unadjusted unemployment rate is actually the lowest it's ever been (granted, they predicted 8% unemployment in May too).  Not great, but not something like 50K or less job creation that may signal a bad day for the administration.

      •  Jobs number will be hard to predict... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Delilah

        The BLS seems to be completely arbitrary now in how many jobs they chop off due to "seasonal adjustments".  The hurricane and chicago strike probably really messed with the numbers... hopefully, the same process that "found" almost 400,000 jobs will be in effect in September, too...

        I wish I could be optimistic, but this agency seems out to screw us!

        GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

        by LordMike on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 10:30:16 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Nothing is in the bag. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, SoCalLiberal, bontemps2012

      And anyone who thinks there's something in the bag, ends up looking like the hapless anti-hero of this video . . .

      29, chick, Jewish, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01. Mitt Romney: the Kama Sutra candidate. There's no position he hasn't tried!

      by The Caped Composer on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 10:37:00 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  National (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    The national numbers are unusually consistent.  Still, unless Romney starts placing a consistent lead in them, it doesn't change the EC count, at all, so I'm not really interested in those.

  •  Today's polls weren't so good (5+ / 0-)

    I don't like to see Obama's lead waning at all.  But there's no reason to go into panic or full on depression yet.  These things happen.  

    I'm glad to see that Allen West is losing.  I didn't even realize that first poll was a Republican poll.  I wouldn't say West is done but he's definitely got problems.  The more that his constituents learn about his psychopathic nature, the more they get turned off.  These polls confirm my suspicions that their campaign's decision to start airing those stupid ads attacking Patrick Murphy for a one time bar fight were due to the fact that they're losing the race and they know it.  

    I'm not sure we can take back the House.  I think it's a possibility but made difficult by the bad hand we were dealt with redistricting.  It seems like one of the big problems is that we're losing some Democratic seats in northern states.  It means that we're not really looking at having to gain 25 seats but actually a few more for a majority.  If I had to predict, I think that if the election was held today, we'd pick up 10-15 seats.  I'll be generous and say this is a netgain.  The question though is can we push for more and get over that final hump.  I'm not sure.  A lot of it will come down to how well Obama does.  

    Check out my new blog: http://socalliberal.wordpress.com/

    by SoCalLiberal on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 10:16:09 PM PDT

  •  WI-1: 1990 MN-Sen all over again? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    badlands, LordMike, bontemps2012, askew

    Looks like Rob Zerban is going to deliver a petition demanding a Ryan-Zerban debate to Paul Ryan's Janesville office at 10:30 A.M. Wednesday!

    This reminds me an awful lot of Paul Wellstone's begging for a debate against Rudy Boschwitz during the 1990 MN-Sen race.

    Joe Lieberman, Mike Madigan, Andrew Cuomo, and Tim Cullen...why are they Democrats?

    by DownstateDemocrat on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 02:24:29 AM PDT

  •  RAND tracker shows another slight gain for Romney (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    badlands, LordMike, bontemps2012

    In round numbers though it stays at 50-44. Overall Romney's narrowed the margin by about 2 points in the last 5 days but it's interesting that Obama's stayed at 50% all this time - so it seems to be more that the Romney vote is firming up slightly rather than that Obama is dropping back.

  •  Q national poll: Obama 49-45 (7+ / 0-)

    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...

    Obama getting 42% of the white vote.  95% have their minds made up.

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 03:07:34 AM PDT

    •  The numbers by race make no sense (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, Supavash

      If Obama is down only 11 points among whites he has to be ahead by more than 4 overall; he lost by 12 against McCain. Either that or they are projecting some completely unbelievable increase in the share of the white vote relative to 2008. Or maybe there's a problem with definitions...

      Q always confuse me by only having "white" and "black" as racial categories whereas most other pollsters also have at least "latino" as separate. However their commentary mentions that Obama's 42% of the white vote is very similar to the "43% he won in 2008" - and that 43% is the number for whites according to the CNN exit poll which has 5  categories of White/African-American/Latino/Asian/Other. That seems to imply that they are comparing with only the first category.

      So in this case, where are latinos, asians, other? They seem to have got lost. And this is no small part of the electorate either - probably in excess of 15% this year.

  •  Amazing Consistency (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, MetroGnome

    What strikes me is the amazing consistency among the polls.  They all show President Obama ahead by about +3 points, with a standard deviation between them of only about 1 point (even Rass is now consistent).  To me that's amazing because it shows no matter how you poll this race or what methodology you use to screen for "likely voters" or what mix of Republicans, Democrats and Independents is used, you still come out with almost identical results with Obama ahead by 3.  I find that very comforting!    

    "Some men see things as they are and ask, 'Why?' I dream of things that never were and ask, 'Why not?"

    by Doctor Who on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 04:55:02 AM PDT

  •  Zogby for Wash Times is more interesting (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    than this gives credit. The key is being more real-time based for Likely Voters than simply going with history and demographics.

    “If Obama were running against himself, ‘Would you vote for Obama, yes or no,?’ this would be a much closer race. To a great degree, it’s all about Mitt Romney right now, and the judgment today is he doesn’t appear to be a suitable alternative, including for people who don’t want to vote for Obama,” said John Zogby, the pollster who conducted the survey.

    “Now, it’s not over — oh, absolutely, it’s not over. No prediction here. But [Mr. Romney] is on the ropes,” he said.

    Obama widens lead, confidence against Romney - Washington Times http://www.washingtontimes.com/...

    It's personality.

    Romney has had people licking his boots since he was a teenager.

    He has had people willing to lie for him.

    He is way up there in LDS, which brings in a whole True Believing Mormon mind set. Romney's word has been close to law. The lower-down LDS folk are instructed never to criticize their betters.

    This all goes far beyond wearing white clothing when they do work at the Temples.

    Mitt Romney has not lived in a many directioned, many voiced, gray-area world. So he lies, thinking in lies. He hates, thinking in polished hatreds.

    Voters don't like that.

  •  Not Tightening (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    The race isn't tightening, the polls are converging. A week ago, you had a couple of polls in the 7 or 8 point range, along with ABC tied and Ras being Ras with Romney staked to a couple point lead, but the average was still around 3 or 4 points.  Now everything seems to have converged around +2 to +5, but the average is still in the 3-4 point range.  Even UnSkewedPolls own tracking poll yesterday was at Obama +3 (51-48), right in line with everyone else.

  •  Mass. 6 voter polled but not on congressional race (0+ / 0-)

    It was really odd. I received a call at 4:59 on Sept. 30 from the phone number 617-863-6053. They asked me favorable unfavorable about Warren, Brown, Obama, and Romney. Then they asked me who I was planning on voting for in those races, and here is where I thought the poll was odd. They asked me about the state senate race and asked my opinion about each candidate. I hadn't heard of any of them. I tend to not pay attention to Mass. politics. Why? Believe it or not, nothing gets done that actually matters on Beacon Hill. You have what I call "Finneran Democrats" or the Mass. version of blue dogs trying to curry favor every time we have a Republican in the corner office because these sellouts get more power cooperating w/ Republicans than Democrats. I often don't even vote on these races. The Democrat always wins. When we have progressive candidates I'll support them. I used to live in Woburn and I liked Jay Kaufman who was our state rep. but virtually everyone in the state house is worthless and self-serving.

  •  Take action in swing states (0+ / 0-)

    Anyone out there who wants to do more to get President Obama re-elected should check this out… Work for Progress is hiring Campaign Associates to educate/mobilize voters in key battleground states, and will pay salary plus travel assistance available. More info here, or call 617-209-WORK.

    Paid for by Fair Share Action and not authorized by an Candidate or Candidate's Committee.  Contact us at: 44 Winter St, 4th Fl, Boston, MA 02108.

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