On The Rachel Maddow Show on Monday night, Rachel was intrigued by an interview Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell gave to his hometown newspaper in between attending fundraisers and campaigning for Republican senate candidates. McConnell is working hard for Republican candidates because he would become the Senate Majority Leader if the Republicans succeed in winning back control of the senate. McConnell says it isn't about him, but it is about which direction the country will take. The fact that this election is about a choice between two different views as to which direction the country should take is a sentiment that President Obama has expressed too. McConnell has been working very hard having attended 76 different functions to help raise millions of dollars for Republican senate candidates.
The article explains the odds of Republicans winning back the senate.
Jennifer Duffy, Senate analyst with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, said that in 2011, the chances for electing a GOP Senate this year were around 70 percent. “For Mitch McConnell, I think last year at this time it was looking like it was almost as sure as it gets in politics,” she said.
But now McConnell is looking at only a 40 percent to 45 percent probability of winning the Senate because Romney is not running a strong race and some GOP candidates are weak, she said.
“It’s tough, very tough” for the GOP right now, Duffy said.
Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, agreed that the chances of the GOP gaining control of the Senate appear smaller. “Coattails matter and candidates matter,” he said.
Other analysts concur that the chances of Republicans winning back control are unlikely, unless Mitt Romney turns his flailing candidacy around. Then there are some flowery quotes from John Cornyn about what a hard worker and great leader McConnell is. The Republicans had a chance to take back the senate in 2010, but GOP primary voters had given them three Tea Party candidates, and well, we all remember what happened next. They lost those three races and the opportunity to win back control of the senate.
History seems to be repeating itself this time around with Tea Party candidates Todd Akin in Missouri and Richard Mourdock in Indiana winning the GOP primaries. The Republicans also hoped to oust Senators Sherrod Brown (Ohio) and Bill Nelson (Florida) but those prospects aren't looking very good. And finally Scott Brown's chances in Massachusetts aren't looking very hopeful either.
In the interview McConnell tried to play down the coattail effect, saying that senate races “tend to be statewide, stand-alone contests. Every state is different, every opponent is different.” And then we arrive at the last page of the article that intrigued Rachel Maddow so much on her show Monday night.
In his pitches to donors, McConnell said he promises that Republicans “are trying to change the country.”
“Our view is, (Obama) has done a very poor job,” the senator said. “Virtually everything he did that was wrong was when he had overwhelming (Democratic) support in Congress during the first two years of his presidency. ... It’s appropriate to ask now: how did that work out? The spending, the debt, the takeover of health care, the nationalization of the student loan business, bureaucrats on steroids running roughshod over American business.
“I’m pretty confident the American people are not going to go back to 2009 and 2010 and let the other side have total control of the government,” McConnell said.
It's that last sentence that surprised Rachel; that “total control of the government” part. We are talking about three branches of government here: The White House, the Senate, and the House of Representatives. If Mitch McConnell is certain that the American people aren't going to give the Democrats
total control, all three, then he must think that the Democrats are going to win two of three. However, McConnell was recounting his pitch to donors to raise funds for Republican senate races. His he telling donors he thinks the one branch Republicans will win is the Senate? If so, wouldn't that mean he thinks the Democrats will win the White House and the House of Representatives?
Offering some balance to McConnell's opinions, the author completed the piece with comments from the other side.
“Voters are sick and tired of the type of extreme partisanship that Mitch McConnell has led in Washington,” said Matt Canter, spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. “And voters in Wisconsin and Massachusetts and Nevada are going to vote against the Republican Senate candidate because they don’t want to see Mitch McConnell be the majority leader.”
Canter said McConnell “favors the wealthy and the special interests over middle class folks.”
Making a speech endorsing Elizabeth Warren in her race to win the Massachusetts senate seat currently occupied by Scott Brown, Senator John Kerry also weighed in on what the stakes are for the country.
“It is a fight for the Senate itself,” Kerry said.
“I just don’t think any of us are willing to see President Obama raise his right hand and be inaugurated in January just so inside the Capitol, a Majority Leader McConnell can raise his right hand to stop everything that (Obama) has pledged and wants to do,” Kerry said.
The video of the segment from
The Rachel Maddow Show, as well as a transcript for those who can't watch videos online, is below the fleur-de-orange. What do you think? Did Rachel interpret the thinking behind McConnell's words correctly?
For those who can't see the video on their iPad or other device, here is the
link to the video at MSNBC.
As Mitt Romney's, shall we say, second place standing in the swing state polls starts to look like more and more of a permanent residence; as he starts to seem like a longer and longer long shot for winning the presidency, the down ticket effect of that on other Republicans running for lower races is starting to become a bigger part of the conversation. You saw a potent manifestation of that last week right here on this show when the House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi came on this show and said, essentially, Democrats can win back the House. Nancy Pelosi said that not only is she confident that Democrats can get the 25 seats they need to take the back control of the House, which is a huge number, she says she'd, quote, like to have 35 seats, which would be a lot.
And while it is newsworthy that the Democrats think that they can take back the House, as well as keeping control of the senate and keeping control of the White House. It should be said that a number of other observers looking at the same prospect are calling the idea that the Democrats could take back the House pretty much impossible. Dave Weigel writing about that in Slate this week [See Why the House Will Stay Republican by David Weigel, Slate, September 27, 2012]. Politico also publishing a piece on it too [See Money and map make GOP firewall in House by Alex Isenstadt, Politico, October 1, 2012].
One of the consequences of Republicans winning so many seats in the state legislatures in the big red tide election of 2010 is that because that was a census year, that was also a redistricting year. And all of those bright red Republican state legislatures that were elected in that year, they were able to redistrict Congressional districts in their states to protect the Republicans who won Congressional seats in the midterms. And so despite the Democrats enthusiasm right now, most observers say it's going to be basically impossible for Democrats to win back the House. Most outside observers say that. Not everyone though. You know Mitch McConnell, the top Republican in the senate? Mitch McConnell gave an interview over the weekend to his hometown newspaper, The Louisville Courier-Journal, and he said to his newspaper something that may have been a little too revealing. Look at this. He's discussing what he tells donors about supporting Republican senate candidates. Quote Our view is, Obama has done a poor job the senator said. Virtually everything he did that was wrong was when he had overwhelming Democratic support in Congress during the first two years of his presidency. It's appropriate to ask now: how did that work out? And then Mr. McConnell added this. He said, quote, I'm pretty confident the American people are not going to go back to 2009 and 2010 and let the other side have total control of the government [See Mitch McConnell leads fight for Senate control by James R. Carroll, The Courier-Journal, September 29, 2012].
Total control of the government? Think about that for a second. Mitch McConnell there is talking about Democrats controlling the Senate and Democrats controlling the White House and Democrats controlling the House. I mean, few people other than Nancy Pelosi and other house Democrats are talking about the Democrats conceivably taking control of the House. But Mitch McConnell seems to think that's a possibility. As the Republican leader in the senate, Mitch McConnell is of course most concerned with senate seats and that is what he is backstopping here when he's recounting his pitching to donors. But the pitch he's making to Republican donors is amazing. He's pitching that Republicans need to work hard and collect your hard-earned money to hold on to seats in the senate because the Republicans are going to lose the House and incidentally he's saying that Mitt Romney's going to lose his race for the White House too. It's almost like it goes without saying for these guys now. This is the guy who is more in charge of the Republican senate message than anybody else in the country, and part of his pitch is effectively, Listen, Mitt Romney's going to lose. You need us so [Democrats] don't control everything. Everybody's been sort of waiting to find out if Mitt Romney looks like such a losing prospect that down ticket Republicans are going to be cut lose to essentially campaign on their own; to campaign against him the way that some of them have already started to. But campaigning on the assumption that Mitt Romney is going to lose? That is something new.