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What follows are the results from a very good Quinnipiac poll that Nate regards highly:
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...

1. Obama beats Romney 49-45 Nationwide

2.  Voters expect 54 - 28 percent that the president will win the debates

3. The Pres. leads 56/38% among women and 94/2% percent among black voters

4. Men back Romney 52 - 42 percent while white voters back Romney 53 – 42—Obama


"President Barack Obama won only about 43 percent of the white vote in 2008, so his current standing among whites tracks his earlier winning performance," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "If the president can match or exceed his 2008 showing among whites it will be difficult to impossible for Romney to win."
5. Independent voters 47% Romney – 45% Obama

6. Democrats 45 favorable – 49 unfavorable -- Cons 41 - 52

7. On the economy,  48% Obama; 47% Romney.

8.Romney would do a better job on the budget deficit, voters say 52 - 42 percent.

9. Obama leads on every other issue: 50 - 45 percent on health care, 50 - 44 percent on national security, 52 - 43 percent on handling an international crisis.

10. Obama cares about their needs and problems, voters say 60 - 38 percent. Romney doesn't care, voters say 51 - 46 percent.

And, 83% of voters say that regardless of what happens in the debates, it will not affect their votes.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Any numbers on the Swing States?... (10+ / 0-)

    as ABC poll had Pres. ahead by only 2, but 11, 52-41 in the swings.  LOL  

    "Really nice, but also very serious about his job." Jackie Evancho on President Obama 6/7/12

    by BarackStarObama on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 04:28:13 AM PDT

  •  Ah, but isn't it just like Quinnipiac (19+ / 0-)

    to completely fail to factor in Mitt's zingers!

    Another distortion of freedom by the liberal media, ladies and gentlemen.

  •  PA Voter ID law - judge to rule today (5+ / 0-)

    Today is the deadline the state Supreme Court gave the lower level Commonwealth Court judge to rule on the PA Voter ID law.  Whichever way he rules, it is likely the losing side (or both sides, if it is a split decision, upholding parts and overturning parts) will file an immediate appeal with the state Supreme Court.  And only 35 days until the election and we still don't know what rules will apply here in PA.

    •  total garbage (5+ / 0-)

      The court has purposely strung this out.  Confusion creates extra work for us on GOTV and may suppress a small part of the vote.  My advice is keep working at it in PA.  We look good in the polls but we don't want to give R-Money any chance.  This way we can release some resources to Ohio.

      "The real wealth of a nation consists of the contributions of its people and nature." -- Rianne Eisler

      by noofsh on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 04:48:03 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Ok, may I say that as an old white woman (16+ / 0-)

    that I'm really sick to death of idjit white people who vote for the white guy, no matter how incompetent, venial, and untrustworthy he is for the Presidency, merely because he is "the white guy?"

    I really wish they'd wake the f..... up.

    Idjits...

    "Compassion is not weakness, and concern for the unfortunate is not socialism." Hubert H. Humphrey

    by Onomastic on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 04:51:11 AM PDT

    •  Another white woman (7+ / 0-)

      who is sick to death of that statistic. I know white women who are voting Romney. For some, abortion seems to be the single decider. Some are probably voting R simply because that's what we do here. Ugh.

    •  You can't cure stupid, unfortunately (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Onomastic, OIL GUY

      I've seen it firsthand, especially with older men. They get to an age where they realize they will never be able to fix their mistakes or become what they assumed they'd become when they were young, and their bitterness and anger send them into denial overdrive, and they double down on the stupid, in a pathetic act of self-validation, even if it ends up hurting them. It's quite sad.

      If we're going to turn whites around to progressivism and get them to reject the bigotry and idiocy of the past, it'll be through newer generations.

      "Liberty without virtue would be no blessing to us" - Benjamin Rush, 1777

      by kovie on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 06:08:53 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well now hold on a minute (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Onomastic, OIL GUY

        I'm a 60 year-old white guy (or so my folks say, though there appears to be a bit of this and that in the family history that no one will talk about--time for the DNA test!) who is and always has been a strong progressive. As are most of my white friends, male and female, young and old.

        Of course we live on the Left Coast and are all college educated.

        Even here there are certainly a good number of white men who are "conservative" (wingers), but in my experience, every year it's less and less.

        But I get tired of the tendency of political analysts to lump us all in the same category--the older, right-wing, racist, head-in-the-sand angry white guys. Don't give up on the older white voting population--some of them are coming around to common sense and reality-based decision making.

        Besides, I don't have a lawn to yell at the kids to get off of. It's a lovely green garden with a fountain and a Buddha on one side and a Quan Yin on the other.

        •  Yeah but you're educated and professional (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Onomastic, OIL GUY

          and live in a more culturally sophisticated part of the country. Because it takes too long to fully type it out, most people who say "older white men" really mean "older white working class white men without college degrees who live in cultural backwaters". Of course, this too is a generalization, as there are such people who are nevertheless progressive. But statistically speaking, such people tend to be more racist, regressive and angry, thus the stereotype.

          "Liberty without virtue would be no blessing to us" - Benjamin Rush, 1777

          by kovie on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 06:35:05 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Oh, I know kovie. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        kovie, OIL GUY

        It's why getting out the vote is so damn important.

        The only time they win is when we don't show up. Of course that's why they're trying to keep us from showing up in the first place, along with all their other little dirty tricks.

        All of which makes getting folks registered and to the polls even more crucial.

        The bottom line is we DO outnumber them and I want to see huge numbers of us going to the polls.

        I want the Republicans going under in a landslide so they can't do any of their denial of reality BS.

        Oh, they'll still try. Delusion is hard for them to give up.

        But sane Americans showing up in huge numbers will make Republican attempts at delegitimization of the election so obviously pathetic, except to the benighted few.

        "Compassion is not weakness, and concern for the unfortunate is not socialism." Hubert H. Humphrey

        by Onomastic on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 06:32:15 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  GOTV is certainly important (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Onomastic

          But when we win, it's also because of two other important factors. One, the other side's voters don't come out to vote in large numbers because they're unhappy with their candidates and discouraged in general. And two, we win over more centrists, indies and swing voters than they do. I'm convinced that the latter is absolutely crucial to turning the Democratic party into the country's dominant party, especially if we can win them over permanently and not just election by election. Of course, that would turn them into base voters!

          "Liberty without virtue would be no blessing to us" - Benjamin Rush, 1777

          by kovie on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 06:39:06 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Exactly! (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            kovie, OIL GUY

            Don't you think that the Teaparty take over of the Republican Party is doing just that?

            Even folks who identify as Republican are out there GOTV to re-elect President Obama.

            Today's Republican Party is far too extreme for most folks. Of course the talking heads in the Village don't seem willing to touch that one with a ten foot pole.

            "Compassion is not weakness, and concern for the unfortunate is not socialism." Hubert H. Humphrey

            by Onomastic on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 06:46:23 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Well (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Onomastic, brae70

              As much as I like it when the other side self-destructs, you can't rely on the other side's stupidity to win. They won't always be in thrall to the far right, and we have to be prepared to be able to win over the center when they come back to their senses. The real enemy to progressivism isn't far-right conservatism, but rather slick center-right neoliberalism, because it SEEMS sensisble to centrists. We have to craft a messaging framework that wins over these people before the other side has a chance to do so again. And it will, sooner than we think.

              "Liberty without virtue would be no blessing to us" - Benjamin Rush, 1777

              by kovie on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 06:51:41 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  What really annoys (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        brae70

        is being far far to the left of these young white poli-sci grd school privileged right out of high school diploma eating gradschoolers on the entire range of issues, and them up on their moral high horses about what a reactionary I must be because of my age, but they "[pragmatically" support the Iraq War and "pragmatically" oppose single-payer health plans and "pragmatically" embrace the Holiness of Free Markets, and me the old white anarcho-socialist guy must be the reactionary, and privileged! (that's why I was in basic at 17) because I'm an "old fart".  Hatefyul, you know, with no good reason except my "personal failure", of course.

        Ever get the feeling you've been cheated?

        by ActivistGuy on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 06:39:52 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  What I don't understand is that given the (5+ / 0-)

    issues why almost half the nation is still voting for MythRommey? I'm sure most of these people need and use social safety net programs (Medicare, Medicaid, unemployment ins. etc.).  Yet they are willing to hire someone who will cut the net from under them. Too bad we as a nation are so easily divided against our own best interest.  Obama may leave much to be desired, but Mitt is just a richer and dumber version of George Bush.

    •  Well, the Romney (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bear83, Voter123, billlaurelMD

      voters are likely watching Fox for news or don't watch news. They may have no clue about anything other than the candidates' race and/or stance on abortion.

    •  Many people do not feel... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Voter123, MKinTN

      ...that it is the role of Government to improve their standard of living.

      For example, I'm a Christian, and I believe America needs the Word of Jesus. But I would vote against anyone who tried to use Government to impose/advance my religious agenda. That is just not what Government is for.

      I suspect a huge number of people feel the same way about Economics. They think they are supposed to find healthcare, education, infrastructure, emergency help, and social services on their own, without help.

      Listen to conservatives and they will use the word "meddle" to describe anything the Government does in the Economy.

      I am not sure what the right framing is to break through this, but we had better think of something.

      •  That contention is not back up by (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Voter123, ybruti, MKinTN, ManhattanMan

        facts - the overwhelming majority of Americans, almost all of them in fact, use government social programs of one type or another:

        When asked about participating in specific government social programs, 97 percent of Republicans and 98 percent of Democrats say they have taken part in a government program of some kind, according to a 2008 survey run by the Cornell Survey Research Institute. Not just one or two either; the survey found that people had used around five social policies on average.
        link
        •  Many are in denial about this (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Roadbed Guy, MKinTN, ManhattanMan

          Some acknowledge it, but nevertheless hate it, or at least claim to. Deep down most Americans, at least in theory, believe in self-reliance. Which I think is a good thing, provided you realize that to be "self-reliant", you need others, be they family, friends, companies, or government. The sort of self-reliance that continues to be promoted in the US, especially by the right, is an 18th century backwoods sort of self-reliance that no longer obtains (and even then these people relied on guns, gunpowder, supplies, clothes, etc., that were made by others).

          To permanently win back a majority of Americans, Dems have to find a way to incorporate the cult of self-reliance into their progressive message. Something along the lines of it being government's job to make it possible for people to be self-reliant and have a decent life with self-respect--something the GOP has been increasingly denying them for decades, belying its message.

          "Liberty without virtue would be no blessing to us" - Benjamin Rush, 1777

          by kovie on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 06:16:11 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Self reliance is a total myth, but whatever, (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            kovie, MKinTN, billlaurelMD

            if it wins elections, why not propagate the meme?

            More to the point I was getting at, I was disputing the statement that "many people do not feel that is the role of Government to improve their standard of living"

            I suspect that very few people actually feel that way when push comes to shove, as the stats I posted well exemplify.  What they in fact feel is that it is not the role of Government to improve other people's standard of living - especially when those other people happen to minorities, etc.

            •  Well, sure (5+ / 0-)

              When other people get government aid, it's a handout for layabouts. When I get it, it's something I earned and deserve. A bit OT, but I hear a variation on this whenever I come across a discussion in the comments section of an article about cycling and cycling accidents. There's always a contingent of nasty bike haters who claim that cyclists should have to pay road usage fees through tabs and licensing or else not be allowed on roads, not realizing that the vast majority of cyclists also own cars and pay such fees already, and that the extra use they get out of roads on their bikes is marginal compared to that of cars, in terms of space and wear and tear. I.e. my use of public roads is legitimate because I drive a real vehicle and not some effete bicycle, whereas your use of them is bogus.

              You just can't cure stupid. Or mean.

              "Liberty without virtue would be no blessing to us" - Benjamin Rush, 1777

              by kovie on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 06:45:54 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Maybe you can come up with a concrete proposal (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                kovie, MKinTN

                for cyclists to pay their fair share of road costs based on the amount of wear and tear that results from their activities, you know, in comparison to SUVs, 18 wheelers, etc.

                Like you say, it's rather minimal - wonder if it can actually be quantified?   I'd bet it'd be something like one cent for every hundred dollars for the mega vehicles now roaming our roads . . ..

                •  Not even (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Roadbed Guy, MKinTN

                  My bike weighs under 19 pounds and has 2 skinny slick tire wheels and makes infinitessimally small wear and tear on roads. A typical vehicle probably weighs around 3-4000 pounds and measurably wears down roads. But if I'm asked to pay a penny or two to register my bike, I'm ok with that.

                  Of course, the cost of administering such a rediculous program would vastly exceed the additional revenue it brought in. Wingnut math is like that.

                  "Liberty without virtue would be no blessing to us" - Benjamin Rush, 1777

                  by kovie on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 07:04:49 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  To nitpick, I'm guessing that your bike (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    kovie

                    weighs more than 19 pounds with you on it?

                    In any event, the point is for you to appear eager to "pay your fair share" when confronted by a wingnut.

                    And you can even cite scientific studies - such as this thread (I'm sure it would meet their standards, if copied and pasted to a RW site of some type) - that you owe something like $0.0137 over the lifetime of a bicycle, and propose that it be collected like sales tax when the bicycle is sold.  

                    That would put them in quite the conundrum I suspect - they'd be forced to agree with a new tax, or look like a complete hypocrite for bringing up the subject in the first place . .. .

                    •  I weigh exactly 3.123 ounces (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      Roadbed Guy

                      But seriously, even with fat old me on the bike I can't imagine that it contributes measurable deterioration to a roadbed (heh) even if I go over the same stretch of road 10 times a day 365 days a year. If I'm wrong, I'd love to see credible studies showing otherwise.

                      Of course, there's more involved than roadbed deterioration. There's also services such as police, rescue, EMS, etc., in case I get into an accident or need help on some remote road, that car fees pay for. So throw in another $3 a year and I'll consider it a fair trade.

                      Oh wait, what's that, it would likely cost well more than $3 a year to administer and thus is pointless? Damn that reality and math, always getting in the way of a good wingnut rant!

                      Seriously, they just hate cyclists, or anyone who makes them feel like the losers that deep down they know they are.

                      "Liberty without virtue would be no blessing to us" - Benjamin Rush, 1777

                      by kovie on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 02:28:19 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

            •  No, they believe it about... (0+ / 0-)

              ...themselves, too.

              That is why you get many people (notably poor Whites in red states) who knowingly vote against their own economic self-interest.

        •  The Conservative Mentality Is That Far Too Much (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Roadbed Guy, MKinTN

          is wasted on thosssse people and that (waves hands) cuts won't cut mine.

          We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

          by Gooserock on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 06:19:49 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  You are correct. (0+ / 0-)

          The fact that the attitude of millions of people contradicts the facts is what makes this so frustrating!

    •  agreed (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Voter123, penguins4peace

      there is not a single issue in this poll where Obama shouldn't be crushing Romney. better on the deficit? by what logic is Romeny or any Republican going to do a better job on the deficit?

      and as a repsentative of the middle age white guy crowd, what the fuck does it take to get we dolts to wake up?

    •  did you hear or read the transcript (0+ / 0-)

      of that call in FL?  Because that is the information they are told.  Obama's a Muslim.  And he will take away their medicare

      www.tapestryofbronze.com

      by chloris creator on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 06:06:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Watch Fox News (0+ / 0-)

      Everything Democrats do is shady and suspect; they're weak, fearful, and ineffective. It's all part of a subversive operation to profit from violating your rights.

      "A cynical, mercenary, demagogic press will produce in time a people as base as itself." - Joseph Pulitzer

      by CFAmick on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 07:49:07 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Checked TPM PollTracker (4+ / 0-)

    because I'm obsessive, and I'm interested in the trend with national head-to-heads for the Q-poll. Last Quinnipiac US presidential poll had Obama up 46-43. So, this is incrementally better than the last one, and the trend is good.

    The braying sheep on my TV screen make this boy shout -- make this boy scream -- I'm going underground...

    by jamfan on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 05:15:50 AM PDT

  •  One thing is NOT true... (0+ / 0-)

    If this is true...

    9. Obama leads on every other issue: 50 - 45 percent on health care, 50 - 44 percent on national security, 52 - 43 percent on handling an international crisis. - by joelgp on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 07:16:41 AM EDT
    Citing your own post, Mr. Obama does NOT lead on every "issue".

    Then...what 'bout this...?

    8. Romney would do a better job on the budget deficit, voters say 52 - 42 percent. - by joelgp on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 07:16:41 AM EDT
    Unless you (joelgp) are writing that budget deficits are NOT an "issue" then one of those statements is NOT true.

    I think budget deficits (when fighting against recessions) are totally immaterial and...counterproductive.

    I am General Maximus Decimus Meridius. Father of a murdered son, husband to a murdered wife and I shall have my vengeance in this life or the next.

    by 2questions on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 05:25:49 AM PDT

  •  So Romney and Obama are DEAD EVEN, in other... (4+ / 0-)

    ...words, with O with just a 4 point lead, basically within the margin of error.

    How is this a good poll again?

    Yeah, okay, some of the internals are good - but the national shows a dead even race, and the swing states are all basically near or within the margin of error. The race is dead even, folks.

    VOLUNTEER AT YOUR LOCAL OFA OFFICE THIS WEEK.

  •  Not exactly a blowout for Obama (4+ / 0-)

    Also, it confirms yet again that a majority of voting Americans are kind of stupid, like on the budget question. Especially the white male ones. Obama's going to win this because voters like him and don't like Romney, not because they necessarily think he's got better policies. Most are literally too stupid or uninformed to have a meaningful opinion on that. How could it be otherwise in a country where millions of people watch neuron-killing TV shows like the Kardashians and Bridezillas?

    "Liberty without virtue would be no blessing to us" - Benjamin Rush, 1777

    by kovie on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 06:00:54 AM PDT

    •  Conservatives Almost Never Dare Bet on Stupidity (0+ / 0-)

      of voters. Liberals far and away have more faith in voter stupidity than conservatives, who spend in the scores of billions to disinform them.

      We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

      by Gooserock on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 06:21:22 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  There has not been a single criticism (0+ / 0-)

      of Obama's polices from the right in 4.5 years.

      "A cynical, mercenary, demagogic press will produce in time a people as base as itself." - Joseph Pulitzer

      by CFAmick on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 07:50:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  and in the 7-11 cup poll (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash

    http://www.7-eleven.com/...

    Obama doing well in states covered.  laugh if you will at all the flaws in doing this but the results 4 years ago pretty much mirrored the voting.

     Interesting to note the amount of support for the Dems in the Red states where Romney is ahead.

     

  •  Romney is losing (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    The Nose, Supavash

    With that gender gap winning is out of the question for Romney unless he cuts it down to single digits. Not happening.

  •  That expectation that Obama will win the debate (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash

    can cut both ways: if he's sub-par, Romney might look better simply because of the jarring outcome. But: Obama could look good simply because of the projection. "I thought he'd win and he did. I was right."

    There's something else. People expect Obama to win the election and they're now extrapolating retroactively to the debate. (Yes, there's that "retroactive" thing, but it works here, I think. :)  )

    "To hunt a species to extinction is not logical."--Spock, in Star Trek IV.

    by Wildthumb on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 09:10:17 AM PDT

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