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If today's rather modest amount of data is alarming or depressing to regular readers of the Polling Wrap, allow me to use, perhaps for the first time, a very old cliché: consider the source.

Perhaps I, along with the universe of political junkies, should have seen this one coming. Less than 36 hours after the first presidential debate, the two most well-known right-leaning "robopollsters" in the game are out with swing state polls, culled from single-day samples. And their results, perhaps not surprisingly, have been exceptionally kind to the Republican nominee.

What is interesting is that they take pretty different approaches to their polls, even though the toplines are somewhat similar.

What is even more interesting is how badly one of those pollsters might have pissed away their credibility in their polling memo. You'll have to read it for yourself, it really is that bad.

For now, though, on to the numbers:

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama 50, Romney 45

NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama 46, Romney 44 (LV)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama 49, Romney 47


FLORIDA (Rasmussen): Romney 49, Obama 47

FLORIDA (We Ask America--R): Romney 49, Obama 46, Others 1

MONTANA (The Mellman Group for JET PAC [DGA]--D): Romney 48, Obama 44

NEVADA (Gravis--R): Obama 49, Romney 48

NEW MEXICO (PPP): Obama 52, Romney 43

OHIO (Rasmussen): Obama 50, Romney 49

OHIO (We Ask America--R): Romney 47, Obama 46, Others 1

VIRGINIA (Rasmussen): Romney 49, Obama 48

VIRGINIA (We Ask America--R): Romney 48, Obama 45, Others 2

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
NM-SEN (PPP): Martin Heinrich (D) 51, Heather Wilson (R) 41

NV-SEN (Gravis--R): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 52, Shelley Berkley (D) 36

OH-SEN (Public Opinion Strategies for the Mandel campaign): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 47, Josh Mandel (R) 44

VA-SEN (Rasmussen): Tim Kaine (D) 52, George Allen (R) 45


FL-02 (Lester and Associates for the DCCC): Rep. Steve Southerland (R) 43, Al Lawson (D) 43

HI-01 (Merriman River Group for Civil Beat): Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D) 49, Charles Djou (R) 44

HI-02 (Merriman River Group for Civil Beat): Tulsi Gabbard (D) 70, Kawika Crowley (R) 18

IL-12 (We Ask America--R): Jason Plummer (R) 44, Bill Enyart (D) 40

MT-AL (The Mellman Group for JET PAC [DGA]--D): Steve Daines (R) 36, Kim Gillan (D) 34

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...

I have long had some serious internal conflicts about the polling outfit known as "We Ask America." They are a research arm of the Illinois Manufacturing Association, and as such, one has to assume a thumb (and perhaps a forefinger) are going to be on the scales at all times. However, their track record in their home state of Illinois in 2010 was actually pretty decent. Of course, 2010 was a good year to be a pollster that favors Republican outcomes, so any benefit of the doubt they might get from being on the fairway in that particular election cycle is mitigated a bit.

This year, on balance, their numbers have been within the bounds of reason. Some of their House polling has been very favorable to Republicans (including today's relevant example in IL-12), but they have also thrown some numbers bound to make Republicans howl in pain (the Wisconsin numbers from last week come immediately to mind).

Today's polling, however, may jeopardize the ability to seriously consider them as we head towards Election Day. And, hard as it may be to believe, my concern is not with their actual topline numbers. Sure, they seem a little bit too favorable for Mitt Romney, but a single day sample after a universally lauded debate performance should yield the best numbers he has seen in a long time. Some could easily quibble about the sudden pluralities of Republicans in the Florida and Virginia samples, but, hey, let's not all become Mr. Unskewed here.

My problem with the firm was the polling memo itself. It was ... well, honestly, there was no other word to describe it ...giddy. The firm is, presumably, attempting to be professional, but their memo reads like a middle school cheerleading corps chanting "Go, fight, win!" as their team heads toward the goal line.

Pollsters, especially ones that do private client work, have preferences. PPP, our polling partners, make absolutely no bones about the fact that they are a Democratic polling firm. Check their archives, though, and see if you can find a write-up of their data that reads, quite frankly, as silly as the one that came out of the W.A.A. offices this morning.

Ironically, it was every Democrat's least favorite pollster, the House of Rasmussen, which looked measured and responsible by comparison. They also caught a Romney bounce of sorts in Virginia and Florida, but took pains to point out that these were fairly modest differences from previous polling. Now, the House of Ras is still the House of Ras: They introduced a new metric in today's numbers (those who are "certain to vote") which predictably padded Mitt Romney's numbers by a few points. But the odd celebratory tone that flew off the page in W.A.A's write-up was absent.

In other polling news ...

  • What are the numbers telling us post-debate? The honest answer is:Iit is pretty damned hard to tell. The daily trackers moved all over the place. Gallup crept forward a point in Obama's favor, Rasmussen stood pat at Obama +2, and Ipsos/Reuters slid another three points in Mitt Romney's favor. What does this tell us? Well, it would seem to tell us that Romney's Thursday was good, but not a sea change in public support. After all, for Romney, what came onto the tracking polls Thursday night was roughly equivalent (or perhaps, in Gallup's case, incrementally worse) than what slid off. On this question, I think I agree with The New Republic's Nate Cohn: We will know what we know by early next week.
  • There is one rather scant piece of evidence of a legitimate Romney "surge," and it comes from Clarus Research, the group run by former Campaigns and Elections publisher Ron Faucheux. They claimed in a write-up today to have done two single-day samples, one on Tuesday and one on Thursday. The Tuesday sample was Obama +4. The Thursday sample is Romney +1. Of course, there is some issues inherent in single-day samples. But this is just another data point to add to the pile.
  • Downballot, I'd point out three "holy crap" data points (and no, that fundamentally absurd Gravis poll is not among them). Two House polls immediately leap to mind, as we finally understand why the DCCC took a sudden interest in gunning for freshman Republican Rep. Steve Southerland. The assumption had been that the more conservative segments of northern Florida would be tough sledding for the Democrats. But Al Lawson appears to be making this a real race. Which explains why not only the DCCC got involved, but also why the NRCC suddenly jumped off the bench and began funneling resources into the region. The other one is in Hawaii. Now, I suspect that Colleen Hanabusa will be reelected, but seeing Charles Djou incrementally better than he did in 2010 (when he lost this seat to Hanabusa 53-47) is pretty shocking. But, for me, the "holy crap" is in Virginia, where even the House of Ras no longer sees this Senate race as a coin flip. If a sample that yielded a Romney +1 outcome there also sees a seven-point lead for Tim Kaine, George Allen's team has to be very, very nervous.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 05:30 PM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Steve, Come On, MRG has been delivering crap (8+ / 0-)

    results since 2010, including this year. And we know about the polling quirks of Hawaii on top of that. Hannabusa will win by double digits.

    •  As a Hawaii native, I'm so excited for *3* women (17+ / 0-)

      (out of a total 4 person delegation) to represent my home state in the next Congress: Colleen Hanabusa and Tulsi Gabbard in the House, and Mazie Hirono in the Senate. Here is a nice article & pic of all three honoring trailblazing Rep. Patsy Mink, who represented HI-02 for many, many years, on the 10th anniversary of her passing.

      Fun, and amazing, fact I learned from the piece: the official name of Title IX is actually the the Patsy Takemoto Mink Equal Opportunity in Education Act. Wowza!

      These 3 amazing women will join Sen. Daniel Inouye to form an all-Dem, and all non-white delegation. Hanabusa & Hirono are Buddhist; Gabbard is Hindu; Gabbard & Inouye are war vets--Iraq and WWII respectively.

      GOP: Welcome to the future of America. Get used to it.

      Ho'oponopono. To make things right; restore harmony; heal.

      by earicicle on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 08:35:28 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Hawaii Public Radio (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        skibum59, earicicle, happynz

        Because I work an odd schedule I can't listen to Morning Edition live here in California.  Hawaii is the perfect time delay for me. So, a few weeks ago I started streaming HPR on my morning walk.

        This has nothing to do with polling at all but, wow HPR should package the morning programing as relaxation tapes. It is amazing. Even the weather report makes me feel like I am on vacation. I'm hooked now. The woman that does the Hawaiian word of the day is so sexy. They are doing their pledge drive now but, unlike here it isn't even a pledge drive. It's Celebration 2012!.

        Romney must be defeated just so, I get my Hawaiian word of the day. I am not sure my morning would be the same without it.  

  •  Brace yourselve for some shitty polls (18+ / 0-)

    the next few days as the Debate Disaster registers.

    Just think 7.8% while looking at them.

    VULTURE/VOUCHER 2012. FUCK YOU, MIDDLE CLASS!

    by GOPGO2H3LL on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 05:41:24 PM PDT

    •  Wait won't the 7.8 start into the polls today? (6+ / 0-)
    •  Trouble is (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      savvyspy, LordMike, vcmvo2, NM Ward Chair

      60 million people watched the debate.  How many of them will see the 7.8%?  Not many.  I expect to see a pretty big swing.  Obama wasn't great in style, but his content was great.  But the media made it seem like he wasn't even there - the Empty Chair.  It sucks.  

      No worries, plenty of time to win back the folks we might have lost.  

    •  One month ago... (3+ / 0-)

      many around here shrugged off the 'bad' jobs report, which came on the heals of a huge Obama victory (the DNC).  

      Now, many of those same people are tooting the 7.8% horn while ignoring the recent Romney victory.

      Far too many people were far too hysterical in the immediate aftermath of the debate, and now far too many people are ignoring the reality of the implications of the debate.

      •  The problem with that (7+ / 0-)

        and I am not discounting Romney's shady, despicable victory or Obama's catastrophic performance, is that 7.8 undercuts the very basis of Romney's campaign.

        VULTURE/VOUCHER 2012. FUCK YOU, MIDDLE CLASS!

        by GOPGO2H3LL on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 09:45:56 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The problem with that (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Jackiesand, Julia Grey, GOPGO2H3LL

          is we are talking about the approximate 15% of voters who are either undecided or flippable.  'Basis of campaign' just doesn't matter to these people.  These are people voting with their gut, not their head.  With these dolts '7.8%' simply doesn't resonate like 'Romney kicked Obama's ass in the debate.'  

          •  and... (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            keetz4, brn2bwild, vcmvo2

            of those 15% if those job numbers are anything close to being right then those of the 15% know  someone who has found a job lately and maybe just maybe feel things are getting better . I bet a lot of those 15% didn't even see the debate.

          •  Rubbish! (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            keetz4, vcmvo2

            I really hate it when Conservatives or Liberals or those in between argue that people don't think when they vote. That is the most patronizing thing to say (and don't get your panties in a twist, said that to my Conservative friend as well). They may not be important reasons to you, but they are REASONS and everyone should ASSUME these votes have as much conviction behind them as the ones you cast.

            Back to your regularly scheduled rants.

            Hon, Mr. Eastwood borrowed our chair again...

            by feloneouscat on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 10:14:40 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  That is more about the speed of the impact ... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            vcmvo2

            ... than whether there is an impact.

            The reason that a stagnant economy jobs report wouldn't have much impact is its what people expect.

            On the other hand, if big number truncation didn't affect people, prices wouldn't be 7.99 and $199. Going from 8.2% in May to 7.8% in September is not real big whoop-dee-do and to be expected in a slowly growing economy, but the "under 8%" is a psychological threshold nonetheless.

            However, the unemployment rate takes a week or so to fully sink in. The Republicans launched their bullshit campaign in an effort to blunt the impact in advance.

            Support Lesbian Creative Works with Yuri anime and manga from ALC Publishing

            by BruceMcF on Sat Oct 06, 2012 at 08:51:09 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  No it isn't. (0+ / 0-)

              This is about low information voters, not slow information voters.  In order for number truncation to make a difference in a purchase, there must be a demand for the product in the first place.  

              The point here is that flippable/undecided voters by in large won't base their vote on the movement of a number they don't understand anyway.  A week to get warm and cuddly with that number isn't going to make a difference, particularly in isolation.  If it's part of a series of news cycle victories, maybe, but in and of itself, it's not enough to overcome the beat down Obama got in the debate.

              •  Yes, this is about low information voters ... (0+ / 0-)

                ...

                A week to get warm and cuddly with that number isn't going to make a difference,
                ... is not how the number sinks in.

                As far as "news cycle victories" ~ as you said, this is about low information voters. The unemployment rate filters out quite a bit beyond the reach of TV news cycles.

                Support Lesbian Creative Works with Yuri anime and manga from ALC Publishing

                by BruceMcF on Sat Oct 06, 2012 at 09:23:27 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

        •  So -- a good question on that: (0+ / 0-)

          Will people who pay enough attention to hear about the 7.8% also pay enough attention to the real story in the jobs report?

          Anybody who looks beyond the headline will discover that it's a really crappy jobs report, one full of ammunition for team Romney.

          LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

          by dinotrac on Sat Oct 06, 2012 at 12:29:27 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  The Drop in Unemployment (12+ / 0-)

      In the last 5 weeks perceptions of the economy and approval ratings of Obama have been improving though economic stats were not.  I think it was more than just a good DNC, people are starting to feel a pickup in the economy.  September had the best car sales in 5 years, home prices are now up yoy in many areas, and default rates on new mortgages and credit cards are well below normal.  Obama needs to highlight the improving situation, but not take a victory lap.  The last thing we should is hand the car keys back to the party that crashed in the first place.  
      Gallup's Obama approval, which is a 3 day tracker, took a huge jump on Thursday to 54% approving, it dropped to 52%, but these are the two best days Obama has had since killing OBL.  Something is up and people are feeling it.
      My feeling about the debate was that Obama is playing a month long game here, and rope a doped the first round.  He now has Romney pinned to certain statements so the etch a sketch is locked in.  I look to see Obama drop the hammer in the next two rounds, and Biden is going to attack all night next week.

      •  Yes, the adjustments of the ... (0+ / 0-)

        ... jobs numbers from July tell us that things were really doing a bit better than we thought three months ago.

        Support Lesbian Creative Works with Yuri anime and manga from ALC Publishing

        by BruceMcF on Sat Oct 06, 2012 at 08:52:29 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  rope a dope (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        vcmvo2

        It seems to me that this is correct. You ought to be able to cut an ad comparing Rom statements in the first debate to previous statements, so "the Etch-a-Sketch is locked in."

        Another thing: the hard RW conservatives listened to Rom turn into a socialist who's going to fund education, soak the rich and keep everything good about Obamacare. But they have decided to forget their own principles in their naked desire to just win. Like Icarus, they think maybe they can fly even higher if they can just get rid of these freakin feathers. We'll see.

        Another thing: Rom had to throw the hard wingers some red meat somewhere, and he's chosen military/foreign policy, Obama will cut defense, Obama has ditched Israel, Obama apologizes, let's make America respected through saber-rattling...

        There's every reason to think BHO was exhausted because he had to work on the Turkey/Syria crisis that is blowing up NOW, but not carrying many headlines. Let's see who likes the prospect of another war. Let's see if we can catch the Republicans coming in...catch them like Mayweather, I mean.

        Finally, with regard to Virginia, remember that Virgil Goode is on the ballot, and "moderate Mitt" reappearing won't make him any less attractive. Plus, any other week we'd be hitting the huge Republican voter registration scandal that was biggest in Florida. Even if they skate on this in the news outlets...it still means one of their dastardly plans, one that sucked up tens of millions in about 8 states, has been unplugged. Nathan Sproul is practically state's evidence at this point.

        Did you think things wouldn't get dirty? They usually wait until the last week to say Obama is a Commie love child. They pushed their necks out early because they were desperate.

        One LAST thing. Republicans were on the point of pulling cash from Rom to save the Senate. They won't do that now; they will go into the teeth of BHO's biggest fundraising month ever.

        So pull your panties out of the crack of your ass and think about volunteering or whatever. If we had coasted through October we would have lacked fire. Not now.

  •  No coincidence at all. (25+ / 0-)

    Ras & WAA come out with 3 polls each, from the same 3 states, within 36 hours of the debate and within minutes of a really good jobs report.

    If today's numbers from these guys make you nervous at all, I hear they've got some new type of Depends Briefs to aid you with your bed wetting.

    We'll have a better picture of the actual state of the race by Tuesday or Wednesday.

  •  Very telling that not even house of ras (11+ / 0-)

    had a change in Ohio from 2 weeks ago in their numbers today. they have been so off all cycle with ohio. it is a great political strategy to cook the polls during a cycle to drive narrative then release ones close to the averages right before the election to claim accuracy. ive said 2-3 romney bounce and stand by it. I think if things dont change, we lose  florida and virginia but win election bc ohio is obamas firewall. but bounces are called bounces for a reason,  it will fade unless obama doesnt bring his a game in the next debate.

  •  I am beginning to think that (46+ / 0-)

    Democrats should have closed ranks and  defended Obama.   Because I believe that we fed into the media frenzy. We should have focused on Romney's lies. I just hope that the debate  doesn't inflict more damage than it  already has.

    Conservatives are not necessarily stupid, but most stupid people are conservatives. John Stuart Mill

    by Micheline on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 05:52:43 PM PDT

  •  oh come on, you deleting my comment, why? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    belzaboo, rennert

    B/c I made a sex joke, wow....his mind was not there on Wed, now he gave Romney new mo.

  •  I would say that if this is the best these (15+ / 0-)

    Pollsters could come up with for Romney then the Obama camp must feel like they've dodged a bullet.  As a result of the jobs report andthe GOP reaction, they seem more willing to embrace their accomplishments rather than just talk about the future as comapred to what Romney would do.  By the time we get to the VP debate, i think Obama has a good chance of being in pretty good shape.

    Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

    by khyber900 on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 05:57:05 PM PDT

      •  I agree. I've said in a lot of posts that (6+ / 0-)

        we really shouldn't look at anything until we get to Monday or Tuesday of next week.  I was just commenting on these 1 day samples.  They're actually not that great for Romney on the surface if you factor in the usual GOP lean.  I also agree that the timing was predictable.  WAA did not poll NV because they just did last week and showed Obama up double digits.  That's why Gravis took that one on.  WAA polled Ohio because they hadn't done so in several weeks, whereas Gravis had done so recently.  That's why WAA took on Ohio.  Ras actually did not show much movement for Romney.  We'll see.  Way too early to tell.  Clearly though the momentum Obama had going into the debate was stalled and some of his leads may recede a bit and some states may be more competitive.  However, his aggressive embracing of the jobs report as validation of his policies is a really good start.

        The one thing Obama has to do is defend his own record.  He did not do it in the first debate effectively enough.  With this jobs report, I believe he will feel more free to do so.

        Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

        by khyber900 on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 06:26:04 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  we shall see, I think Rom has a bit of mo right no (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, auapplemac, Losty
  •  Ipsos RV is Obama 45-40 (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pollbuster, LordMike, Supavash, MBishop1

    Here's the link

    •  OH 2008 Polls (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Supavash, SoCalLiberal

      http://www.pollster.com/...

      Around this time most of the polls had Obama winning but there was a Zogby aroun this time that was 50-45 McCain.

      •  I think that shows a lot (6+ / 0-)

        of momentum for McCain. Looks like he'll take Ohio. Oh wait.

        The definition of INSANITY: Voting Republican over and over and over and expecting the economy to get better.

        by pollbuster on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 06:05:54 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  2008 isn't 2012 (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        belzaboo, auapplemac, llywrch

        Obviously, but you know what I mean.

        2008, the GOP was the in-control party during an epic financial meltodwn.  McCain had ZERO chance to win that election.

        This time, as much as we make fun of Romney, Obama is in charge during a still-crappy economy, and Mitt isn't a cranky 1,000-year-old like McCain, and can still bring some debate chops unlike, apparently, Obama.

        The jobs numbers are great (politically) and thank God.

        Big Bird?  A sideshow.  Won't move a single vote, in my view.  Killing PBS has been a GOP evergreen and no one cares, really, on either side.

        It's a decent bet O-Man will be behind in most of the nationals by mid-next week.  He was awful  in the biggest moment of the campaign so far, and the (national) polling already shows it, despite the happy talk.

        •  Wrong again (21+ / 0-)

          The jobs report pretty much killed any momentum Romney might have garnered from this. Especially the unemployment dropping under 8%. That's a big milestone, since how many times have we heard "no president since FDR has been reelected with unemployment over 8%" this election cycle? (Ignoring, of course, that no president since FDR has had to deal with economic conditions like this.)

          But be nervous and all that and then feel foolish when your worries turn out to be for nothing.

        •  Where does (6+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Supavash, pollbuster, itskevin, askew, Linda1961, IM

          the national polling show any overall change in the race? Gallup.O+1, Ras. No change. Reuters? R +3. Not much movement at all and certainly not enough to lead one to believe that somehow Obama will be down a couple to few points across the board a week from now.

          •  Gallup is ONE DAY out of seven (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            auapplemac, Losty

            That's post-debate!  Reuters is 2 of 5, and the lead has gone from 9 to 5!

            How is this 'no change'?  

            And now we use Raz to prove a point?

            Why such aversion to reality here?

            •  Dude, you're a little unhinged (15+ / 0-)

              You put forward a "reality" which doesn't yet and may not ever exist (your national polling prediction) and are criticizing everyone who isn't as pessimistic as you.  It's frankly a little silly, since you do it on a constant basis.

              The pleasure of hating...eats into the heart of religion...[and] makes patriotism an excuse for carrying fire, pestilence, and famine into other lands. - W. Hazlitt

              by rfahey22 on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 06:47:51 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Reuters is four daily samples, not five (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              itskevin, EcosseNJ, LordMike, askew

              It shows a five date range, but the last "day" is only the morning of the release day. The first day of the sample is from the mid-morning or mid-day cutoff on, so it's four 24 hours samples.

              That changes the math somewhat on how much of an influence one day can have.

            •  Yeah, but you'd expect (4+ / 0-)

              a small move in Gallup. It was clear in Gallup that Obama was getting a bump during the convention, even though the poll never moved by more than 2 net points in a single day. That Obama actually gained yesterday suggests the day was nothing special for Romney.

              Rasmussen is a 3 day track and is worth something, if only for trends.

              Even the Reuters poll isn't that bad Obama was at 46-41 on both Monday and Tuesday in that poll - and his RV score was actually worse on Monday.

              This said, I do think Romney will gain from his debate performance, and I think the totality of polling shows this. He has been performing under - almost certainly - his floor, which I'd say is 47% (no pun intended), so there was room for him to grow if he could give those inclined to support him a reason to vote for him. But your prediction that he will be down in all national polls next week is  much too extreme and is not born out by data.

            •  I understand very well (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Micheline, Stroszek, LordMike

              That Gallup is on a 7 day rolling. And however terrible Ras is overall as a pollster, it doesn't mean that it's totally worthless for comparison. Also, Obama's top line number has been unchanged in Reuters, showing no loss in support.

              So, I'd say its relatively insane to predict a national trend based on 2 days of just 1 poll.

              I still might be wrong, and you might be right. But that doesn't mean that your prediction is based in sound evaluation of data.

              The theory that somehow clutching our pearls, standing by the fainting couch, and setting our hair on fire will help us win elections has been proven false over the last 30-50 years.

              I'm more the type who invests in popcorn futures.

        •  Pessimistic much? The job numbers have (12+ / 0-)

          Totally killed Romney's chance of becoming president. Even if the jobs numbers were not good Romney would still have lost. Americans never elect someone has unlikable has Romney.  

          •  Probably so (3+ / 0-)

            but any more bad debate performances by President Obama and he will be in deep deep trouble.  Regardless of the job numbers.  The worst part of the debate performance this week was the impression that he didn't want to be there.

            WI-8 independent. Very reluctantly for Obama but support Tammy Baldwin with a bit more enthusiasm. Strongly opposed recall of Gov. Walker.

            by WiscIndy on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 06:50:14 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Funny. The worst part to me was that a compulsive, (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Linda1961, jofr, askew, vcmvo2

              shameless and soulless man smirked, bullied and lied for 90 minutes to the American people, seeking the Presidency as the representative of his party.

              I guess your mileage varies. But my knowledge and support of the Other Guy go a little deeper than 'very reluctant.'

              Just so you know, since you're new here, I'm an independent, too--never have been nor will I ever be a member of Team D or [God forbid!] R.

              Ho'oponopono. To make things right; restore harmony; heal.

              by earicicle on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 08:52:52 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Well we'll have to disagree (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                savvyspy

                Romney may not have gotten away with telling untruths if his opponent had called him out on any of it.  Romney wasn't that good, it was just that Obama was that bad.

                People here think that Romney is basically a monster, and people on the right-wing sites think President Obama is a America-hating black socialistic communistic Muslim.

                Neither picture is anywhere near accurate.  I have much more of a problem with GOP base; the Christian right and the "teabaggers" than I do with Romney himself, who is basically just a politician with no minimal core values who does what he needs to do to survive.

                WI-8 independent. Very reluctantly for Obama but support Tammy Baldwin with a bit more enthusiasm. Strongly opposed recall of Gov. Walker.

                by WiscIndy on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 09:23:15 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Welcome, UID #576,736. (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  askew, vcmvo2

                  We look forward to hearing more about these 'cultural issues' that make you such a reluctant supporter of Prez O. The Prez & I go way back, as fellow natives of Hawaii, so his 'cultural issues' are my cultural issues.

                  I suspect we might have a problem.

                  Ho'oponopono. To make things right; restore harmony; heal.

                  by earicicle on Sat Oct 06, 2012 at 01:32:49 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I think you misunderstand (0+ / 0-)

                    Cultural issues, such as equality for women, choice, gay rights, sexual freedom, secularism etc, as well as the Supreme Court which decides these issues are why I am voting for Obama.  If not for these issues and the importance of them to me, I would probably vote for Romney.

                    WI-8 independent. Very reluctantly for Obama but support Tammy Baldwin with a bit more enthusiasm. Strongly opposed recall of Gov. Walker.

                    by WiscIndy on Sat Oct 06, 2012 at 07:19:17 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                •  If Obama had called him out on it? (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  vcmvo2, earicicle

                  Obama - your tax plan will cost $5 trillion.
                  Romney - no it won't
                  Obama - yes it will
                  Romney - no it won't.

                  What more would you like Obama to do?

                  Obama - this 716 billion line is crap - Paul Ryan voted for the same thing and it won't cut benefits.
                  Romney - you cut 716 billion
                  Obama - no, I didn't
                  Romney - yes, you did

                  Obama - You were in favor of Romneycare, now you're against my plan. What gives
                  Romney - Romneycare isn't Obamacare
                  Obama - Republicans say it is
                  Romney - It isn't.

                  What more do you want President Obama to do? Start whining and crying and asking Jim Lehrer to say he's right?

                  If Ed and Chris Matthews had spent half the time they were going unhinged, screaming at the president post-debate and really pushed the "Romney was lying the entire time" meme maybe it gets picked up by the broader press.

                  But instead, we get "See, even liberals think the president sucks."

                  When we stop putting leaders from the past up on pedestals and ignoring their flaws, we can start seeing our present leaders for what they really are.

                  by PhillyJeff on Sat Oct 06, 2012 at 09:12:41 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  this ^^^! (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    earicicle

                    Excellent comment!

                    I was appalled at Romney's continuous non-stop lying. How do you debate a liar? You can't , especially when even the moderator refuses to moderate.

                    Plus Romney gave the appearance of a man amped up on speed or caffeine. A repulsive performance. No integrity or dignity at all.

                    In our sleep, pain which cannot forget falls drop by drop upon the heart until, in our own despair, comes wisdom through the awful grace of God ~RFK

                    by vcmvo2 on Sat Oct 06, 2012 at 03:30:02 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  A-freakin'-men. (0+ / 0-)

                    Rebutting the arguments of egomaniacal liars with facts is pointless. I know. I share DNA with one--my brother.

                    Guess who he's voting for?

                    Thanks, PhillyJeff. I can't believe you have to state what should be obvious to simpering pundits and whimpering Kossacks alike. Thank God the vast majority of American voters can't be bothered with this navel-gazing shit. I hear most of 'em have jobs now! ;-)

                    Ho'oponopono. To make things right; restore harmony; heal.

                    by earicicle on Sat Oct 06, 2012 at 05:31:11 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

        •  I expect respectable polls (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Voodoo king, savvyspy, exterris

          to be within the margin of error nationally, with Obama slightly ahead in Ohio and Wisconsin, and very close in the other swing states.  (Although I'm now convinced that Nevada has a Republican polling bias.)

          WI-8 independent. Very reluctantly for Obama but support Tammy Baldwin with a bit more enthusiasm. Strongly opposed recall of Gov. Walker.

          by WiscIndy on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 06:51:53 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  romney has way less appeal (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bythesea, Linda1961, vcmvo2

          to independents and democrats than mccain. and his veep doesn't keep the fundies happy nearly as well as palin did. i fully expect romney to do worse than mccain, when all is said and done.

        •  Oh please........you're trolling again. (7+ / 0-)

          Big bird is not a side show. Its endemic to all that Rs believe about governance. If it ain't defense or tax cuts for the rich, they want it gone. Killing Big Bird represents killing Medicare, food stamps, stopping abortions, eliminating Obamacare. Any thing humanistic that helps people does not interest Rs. That why Mitt's comments regarding PBS needs to haunt him for the rest of the campaign.

        •  This is a ridiculous statement. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Linda1961, askew

          "... and can still bring some debate chops unlike, apparently, Obama."

          "Southern nights have you ever felt a southern night?" Allen Toussaint ~~Remember the Gulf of Mexico~~

          by rubyr on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 08:40:41 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Wow! You sound exactly like Charlie Cook (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          vcmvo2

          at the debate post mortem on Friday.
          Sponsored by National Journal and United Technologies.

          Big bird is way more than a sideshow.
          I am touched by your enthusiasm and
          cheerfully ask you to name your wager.

    •  40% with RV's after your big bump (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      EcosseNJ, MBishop1, Linda1961

      has to be the most sorry bump in the history of bumps.

      The definition of INSANITY: Voting Republican over and over and over and expecting the economy to get better.

      by pollbuster on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 06:45:09 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I don't see those numbers (0+ / 0-)

      The link you provided shows 46/44 LV and 45/41 RV.

    •  The RV for the tracker ending Tuesday was O 43-40 (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, EcosseNJ, KJB Oregon

      So, this "terrible" post debate result is actually better among registered voters than the day before the debate. I'm seeing 45-41 on the PDF for today, but the point is the same.

      Also, Reuters LV results have shown an increase for Romney, but not a drop for Obama.

      Both of these suggest that we are seeing some energized Republicans (or R's disguised as Indies) rather than real persuasion.

  •  Obama will be reelected...but (7+ / 0-)

    The damage from the debate, however, will be felt downballot, I believe. Had Obama solidified a debate win on Wednesday, the focus could have shifted to Downballot races. The jobs numbers today certainly help, but the boost from the debate, and hopefully, the final take down of Romney that should have happened this week, will now have to wait two more weeks. Time wasted.

    •  Doesn't remind you a lot like the primaries? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, NorthBronxDem

      Where he could have won it with New Hampshire and end of story.

      Conservatives are not necessarily stupid, but most stupid people are conservatives. John Stuart Mill

      by Micheline on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 06:07:22 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Funny, but even Rasmussen doesn't (6+ / 0-)

      show that with Kaine opening up a 7 point lead. I think you may be listening too closely to CNN.

      The definition of INSANITY: Voting Republican over and over and over and expecting the economy to get better.

      by pollbuster on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 06:08:05 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  This is my fear (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Tommy Aces, LordMike, auapplemac

      but it may actually end up being neutralized.  Romney being competitive may keep a lot of the SuperPacs to keep attacking Obama (which isn't going to do really be all that effective as Obama is pretty much a known quantity.)  

      However, attacks on lesser known Senate candidates are likely to be effective.  Less money being dumped against them should be helpful to them.

      OTOH, Romney remaining competitive means that more Republicans will turn out in bigger numbers.

      WI-8 independent. Very reluctantly for Obama but support Tammy Baldwin with a bit more enthusiasm. Strongly opposed recall of Gov. Walker.

      by WiscIndy on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 06:45:49 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Or, (10+ / 0-)

      If Obama had seemingly put his election to bed, all the Super PAC dough from Rove, Kochs, ect. Could have been shifted to down ballot Rethugs.

      A somewhat (even if only seemingly) viable Romney may be a good thing for our down ballot candidates.

    •  Obama's coattails got a little singed Wed nite (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KJB Oregon, ddn, vcmvo2

      Send them to the cleaners and they will be fine by the end of next week. Every other week we have something that supposedly will take Obama down........the jobs report, Libya, Fast and Furious.........now its the debate. Obama came off tired Wed nite and he didn't attack Romney like we would have liked. That's all. He didn't stomp all over the flag, make a major gaffe or piss on the bible.  This too will pass.

      Don't worry, vote!

      •  Reagan used to be called teflon man (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        keetz4, scamperdo

        because nothing seemed to stick perhaps Obama is very likeabe so a good many voters cut him some slack?

        •  Nothing has stuck (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          vcmvo2

          Do you remember a SINGLE line from Romney from the debate? Any attack line, besides that he wants to fire Big Bird?

          The media can't even think of any. All they came up with was "Obama was tired, and he sucked." No reasoning why, etc.

          It fits in their horse race narrative that the race is tightening, which they must have at all costs to boost ratings.

          When we stop putting leaders from the past up on pedestals and ignoring their flaws, we can start seeing our present leaders for what they really are.

          by PhillyJeff on Sat Oct 06, 2012 at 09:15:20 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  It's kind of "hard" to run... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      vcmvo2

      a perfect campaign; maybe not Ann Romney hard but still hard.  

      Also Romney is a chameleon who lies on his positions or refuses to even detail his plans.  

    •  The GOP needed a decent performance from Romney. (0+ / 0-)

      It is really all they needed in my view. They got it and it makes some of the states like Indiana harder.

      The main problem was Romney. It wasn't a debate. It was a war. They wanted to pull President Obama into a disagreeable war. Romney was aggressive and he laddered down into the nonsense of his positions. The 25 years of experience thing was a good example. These companies have mountains of stagnate, global cash. They got it by abusing and writing the rules of deferment for one.  President Obama might have pulled off some better generalized counters to this.

    •  Downballot keeps looking better (0+ / 0-)

      In fact my impression of the past 2 days was that Obama is sliding, but the Senate and House races never looked so good.

  •  Folks, the Romney Bump Will Last a Few Days Tops. (21+ / 0-)

    Then the jobs numbers will sink in, Team Obama will be out exposing Romney's debate lies, and the polls will edge back to around pre-debate levels.

    I remember this place back during the same time in 2008. Just as knee-jerk today.

    One debate doesn't change the outcome of an election, but results do. The fact is, the unemployment rate is at it's lowest point in 5 years. That's a BFD.

    Obamacare is upheld by the SCOTUS. Time for some Kossacks to eat a plate of crow.

    by kefauver on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 06:06:18 PM PDT

  •  Throw out the WAA polls (7+ / 0-)

    They even admitted their methodology wasn't correct, so why is anybody taking them seriously?

    Also, the Gravis poll of Nevada is a total outlier...there is no way Heller is 16 points ahead

    •  Can you please elaborate? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, xsonogall

      I am really worried about their Ohio poll even though a 9 point swing doesn't pass the smell test. I think Obama will eventually win Nevada and Virginia because of demographics so Ohio is crucial.

      •  WAA called it a "snap poll" (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MBishop1, badlands, Supavash

        but as others have mentioned their website is oh so suddenly down, all I get is a white page.

        Rasmussen's really showing a minimal bounce in the three "big 'uns" from his one nighter, here are his last three including today's numbers for some sense of context;

        OHIO
        10/04 - 10/04    500 LV    4.5    50    49    Obama +1
        09/13 - 09/13    500 LV    4.5    49    48    Obama +1
        08/13 - 08/13    500 LV    4.5    45    45    Tie

        FLORIDA
        10/04 - 10/04    500 LV    4.5    49    47    Romney +2
        09/12 - 09/12    500 LV    4.5    46    48    Obama +2
        08/15 - 08/15    500 LV    4.5    45    43    Romney +2

        VIRGINIA
        10/04 - 10/04    500 LV    4.5    48    49    Romney +1
        09/13 - 09/13    500 LV    4.5    49    48    Obama +1
        08/23 - 08/23    500 LV    4.5    47    47    Tie

        The bolded ones are from the week of the Ryan announcement.

        familiar eh

        "Never trust a man who, when left alone with a tea cosy, doesn't try it on!!"

        by EcosseNJ on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 07:22:59 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Also, the last Ras comparison was shortly post-DNC (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          EcosseNJ, Supavash

          when most polling was showing an Obama bump, which hasn't seem to have been noticed much.

          And as you've shown, the difference compared to before both conventions is even nil: O +1, no change, R +1.

          •  Yeah Scotty's been good to the President in (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Supavash

            WI, MI and PA of late but the numbers have been much tighter in "the big three" all cycle and these just aren't showing a huge bounce/swing/mittmentum whatever one wants to call it, it's pretty much business as usual for The House Of Ras...

            "Never trust a man who, when left alone with a tea cosy, doesn't try it on!!"

            by EcosseNJ on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 07:44:31 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  The Reuters/Ipsos Poll is (9+ / 0-)

    a laughable bump. because if after your big bump, you're at 44, I'd say you're in real trouble.

    The definition of INSANITY: Voting Republican over and over and over and expecting the economy to get better.

    by pollbuster on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 06:12:43 PM PDT

  •  PPP is doing polling (10+ / 0-)

    over four days, I think in Ohio and Virginia as well as nationally.  They won't have final results until Sunday, but they've tweeted that all they're seeing so far is a small, not game-changing, Romney bump.

  •  These polls to me were actually good news. (16+ / 0-)

    If this was the best polling results these right leaning outfits could muster up for Romney, a virtual tie in Ohio and very small leads in VA and FL then Obama will win this election comfortably.

    Remember after the repub convention when another right-wing polling firm came out with a Romney + 10 in North Carolina and Purple Strategies pulled the same crap Ras and We ask America pulled today, these polls were quickly debunked by legit pollsters. I'll wait until next week to confirm what I believe, Obama is winning, will win.  

  •  We Ask America (0+ / 0-)

    Is there something up with those polls?
    They can't be accessed on their webpage and Nate Silver has not used them.

  •  Curious... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pollbuster, Linda1961

    The entire We Ask America site is down right now for me (returning a 403:Forbidden error), and there doesn't appear to be a Google cache of the "Boing!" polling memo linked to above.

    Suppose they realized they did something stoopid and are trying to cover their tracks?

    Intended to be a factual statement.

    by ipsos on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 06:34:22 PM PDT

  •  Fact is (7+ / 0-)

    We won't be able to legitimately tell if Romney got a bump from the debate until the 3 day polls start coming in. And even if so, my guess is Obama nails the other two debates and opens up the gap for good.

  •  It is impossible for Romney to receive any bump (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    keetz4, sreeizzle2012, Linda1961

    for his debate performance.  Any polls, like the Reuters, that say otherwise are simply lying.  Not after the big bird comment.      

  •  WAA has NOT been "within reason" (5+ / 0-)

    They are not a valid pollster, they're pretty much the same as Rasmussen, and they are not reputable.

    Rasmussen I've long treated as a throwaway at all times, and the same with WAA.

    These outfits are good for political entertainment, but for entertainment purposes only...not for accurate polling.

    Same goes for Gravis, and sadly for Purple Strategies as their numbers have been very wrong too much.

    There's been more reporting that ever in the political media on what high-quality private polling says in the battlegrounds, and it's become not too hard to measure public polling's accuracy against it.

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 06:53:08 PM PDT

  •  polls (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash, savvyspy

    Nate Silver seems to think Romney got a decent bump.. but now as good as it could have been cause of the great jobs #'s this morning....the President has to bring his A game to the next two debates.. !!!!

  •  You can follow Romney's Swing State leads (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MBishop1, wishingwell, IM

    almost by 'event'

    Spring; by default and with others bowing out, he becomes the nominee and the supporters of Frothy, Newt & Co coalesce around him which equals a small mid to late May bump in some of the swing states, mostly c/o Ras, WAA, McLaughlin, Fox and Purple Strategies and oh yeah, one in FL from Quinnipac...

    August: Ryan. Almost identical polling to today, but this late summer Mittmentum died after less than a week, and despite what you might think, no non tracking national polls shifted to an R lead, Fox News and ABC had him up by a point about ten days later briefly and let's face it Ras & Gallup Trackers had been ever so slightly pro R most of the summer....

    Today: The 'debate' aftermath, and wow, Ras suggesting not much of a bounce probably given that his general numbers for Obama in VA, FL & OH all cycle have been tight [R or O by 1-2pts and ties] and as we know some, excuse the pun, debatable swinging one day polling from WAA, which is already being questioned Mr Silver and many here despite being lapped up superquick by RCGOP...

    I think once the 7.8% sinks in and Obama is already making that a theme of sorts on the stump, this will swing back and I doubt Romney will gain in many if any of the nontracking National polls, maybe a point from one pollster like ABC or Fox, and hey if so, it'd be his first national lead since ABC News, August 22nd...

    "Never trust a man who, when left alone with a tea cosy, doesn't try it on!!"

    by EcosseNJ on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 06:55:29 PM PDT

  •  Nate is now betting on Romney? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash, MBishop1, davidkc, IM

    What does this mean? It's worded strangly:

    The FiveThirtyEight forecast did show a clear shift toward Mr. Romney on Friday, giving him a 15.1 percent chance of winning the Electoral College — up from 12.9 percent on Thursday.

    My subjective view is that, despite the somewhat mixed messages that the polls gave about the magnitude of Mr. Romney’s bounce, this is still too conservative. The forecast model is pretty “smart” about distinguishing random movements in the polls from real ones, and so can be fairly conservative in interpreting the data. However, it does not have the advantage of knowing that the shifts may have come for a good reason — in this case, Mr. Romney’s strong performance in the debate.

    So I would bet on Mr. Romney right now given the odds the model offers — but I’d have done so more confidently before the morning’s jobs report.

  •  nate (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, wishingwell

    Actually that does probably make more sense.. if Nate thought that Romeny was now the complete favorite I would think he would explain.. Now, after thinking about it... just means that Romney may get some trending out of it.. hopefully the Jobs number pushes that back some!

  •  Why the Romney "bounce" won't fade (6+ / 1-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Losty, Bagger, Tuffie, savvyspy, davidkc
    Hidden by:
    Buckeye Nation

    Because it was the first time he was seen in direct comparison to Pres Obama.  It's not an ad campaign, or primary debates or the convention speech - he stood right next to Pres Obama on a debate stage and ran all over him - that will stick with people.  He will not be seen as the caricature the Obama Campaign had very skillfully painted him as - in many ways this was his first impression with a lot of voters and he made a great one.  

    There is literally nothing OFA can do about it.  Run more attack ads - not gonna matter.  For the same reasons folks have said here that any Romney carpet bombing wouldn't work in October.  And the dreadful Obama performance buried the employment numbers - imagine if Obama even tried to pretend he wanted to be on the stage to even get a tie, then had the jobs numbers today? It would be over and the huge momentum would have had down ticket coat tail effect.  

    Pres Obama should still win re-election but it will be with much less a mandate than if he carried all the swing states, and will be without any chance of a Dem House.  Pelosi lost any chance at the gavel on Wednesday night.  

    "The Democratic Party is not our friend: it is the only party we can negotiate with." Rebecca Solnit The Rain on Our Parade.

    by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 07:13:17 PM PDT

    •  house effect (4+ / 0-)

      Agree.. we probably will not take the house now.. get a few seats yes.. but not the house.. that chance has passed... I just hope Romney doesnt keep getting traction.. but I hope that Jobs report stopped it and the President brings his A game, next two debates..

    •  It will fade... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell, Delilah, savvyspy

      ....but, you're right in that Romney will still be contending until the last minute.  He will no longer be seen as the loser candidate.  He will still be considered viable.

      There is one Romney weakness from the debate that OFA can exploit, and that is the blatant lying from Romney.  If they can get a foothold on that, the bounce can be muted.

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 07:21:53 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I won't even grant a polling bounce (9+ / 0-)

        until I see one.  The one problem this probably did create is emboldening Republican partisans, who will now feel it is not a waste of money to support Romney.  My sense was the Republican donor base was demoralized.  Will be interesting to see his September fundraising numbers to confirm.  The fact that they haven't released them yet suggests I'm right.

        White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

        by spiderdem on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 07:27:27 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  prob true - but there's a month to go (0+ / 0-)
    •  My Jacoby Jonze record (20+ / 0-)

      is broken.  For months it just keeps saying every bit of adversity Obama encounters is devastating and permanent.  I think I'll listen to something else for awhile.

      White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

      by spiderdem on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 07:22:12 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Obama debate didn't bury the employment #s (18+ / 0-)

      The employment #s were front page news everywhere today. The debate was already an afterthought beyond cable talk shows.

      I agree that Romney likely secured some permanent R-leaners who had been wavering, but otherwise, this is just over-the-top gloom. Chill.

    •  There's no bounce (13+ / 0-)

      There are a couple disreputable "pollsters" who are right-wingers and spit out numbers favorable to their party today in a few battlegrounds.

      And there are three national polls of which two show Obama, not Romney, actually ticking up, and the third shows Romney ticking up.  All three really just look like random noise.  And none of the three is very reputable anyway...one used to be but has become unreliable in recent years.

      You're sitting there arguing whether a "bounce" will last, for a bounce that up to now doesn't exist.

      And it wouldn't be detected yet if it did exist, since it's been 48 hours and takes awhile for any reliable polling to even be possible.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 07:28:47 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think there is some bounce (8+ / 0-)

        there almost always is after a debate where a challenger gets on the stage with an incumbent the first time, it is almost inevitable that their standing improves. But I do not believe it will significantly affect the race, I'm not ready to concede any battleground state or NE-2 at this point.

        •  I think the bounce is energized inevitable Romney (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, wishingwell, bythesea, Supavash

          voters. They are right now more willing to say they'll vote for Romney, but were probably going to in the end, either way.

          •  Maybe (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            wishingwell

            but there is also the affect of possibly engaging people who were disengaged before. Kerry saw some artificially high poll numbers right after his first debate with Kerry in 04 (anyone want to guess the pollster and the RV/LV spreads?) but in fact it at least partly resulted from people supporting him with no excitement being more engaged, and hence responding to polls when they wouldn't before.

        •  Then prove it (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          pollbuster, LordMike

          Where is it?  I just identified all the post-debate polls, and there isn't any reliable polling demonstrating any bounce.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 07:53:25 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Reuters/Ipsos shouldn't just be dismissed (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike, bridav58, Supavash

            even if they are using an internet method.

            Beyond that, we will have to wait longer for "proof" one way or another. I agree the polls released today are inconclusive although I feel confident "unskewing" Rasmussen to conclude Romney has cut Obama's lead in OH and VA, and may have pulled essentially even in FL.

            •  This is frustrating, a lesson in polling (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              EcosseNJ

              First, Rasmussen, such as it is,  isn't showing any Romney  improvement in Ohio.  They were 47-46 Obama before 50-49 Obama now.  Before that previous poll, they had a 45-45 tie.  All this while in reality Obama led by mid-to-high single-digits.

              Second, in Virginia Ras has had either a one-point lead or a tie the whole time, a one-point lead for Romney now is just noise.

              Third, there's no "unskewing" a bad pollster.  You take a pollster at their word or reject them altogether.  There's no "fixing" a bad methodology by pretending the numbers are something different.

              Rasmussen is not a valid pollster, period.

              There's no valid polling showing any bump.

              If there ever is a bump, we won't see reliable indication of it for several more days.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Sat Oct 06, 2012 at 11:48:53 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  Yeah, just remember all those defining (8+ / 0-)

      first debates that changed the trajectory of the race in the past? Oh wait, there were none...

    •  way too pessimistic JJ (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KJB Oregon, ddn, bythesea, EcosseNJ

      you sound a lot like what GOPers hope will be true. If you watched cable and network news today you'd see the 7'8% is getting an amazing amount of play. Mitts lies are getting some and big bird a lot too. So the debate loss can easily be made up in the next two debates along with the VP debate.

      Now if the outcome of all three debates are the same you might have something to be so down about, but not yet.

      America could have chosen to be the worlds doctor, or grocer. We choose instead to be her policeman. pity

      by cacamp on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 08:18:31 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  LOL... (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ddn, SoCalLiberal, Linda1961, thurst

      Oh man, some people on this site are funny, seriously, reason why I have a love/hate w/this site...the invertebrate liberals the run amok among this website & in general (aka C. Matthews, Ed Schultz type of whiners). I don't know maybe as a black liberal I see things differently from some others who are on this site. Maybe b/c my mom & dad were born in the 40s in bullshit, Jim Crow south, had to put up with some super trials & tribulations that other people's parents/family members on this site DIDN'T have to put up with....I've naturally inherited at least a little bit of a vertebrate from them.

      Now that's not to say that you shouldn't continue to have a  natural cautious attitude b/c you should. I mean hell in sports even when a team of mine is up 20-30 pts, I don't relax until clock hit 0:00. But that type of cautious attitude is different from the "sky is falling shit" that I always see here. Now that's not to say Obama had a great debate "style" wise aka aggressor, though I think the substance was fine. He did look a bit tired, but I've already posted a few times here (search my recent posts) about my theory on that. But otherwise, other than playing a bit more defense than I expected that debate honestly went about as I expected it to. People on the internet, some real life friends of mine (yea I have real life friends) were saying Obama would destroy Romney...which I knew wouldn't be the case. I knew Romney would come out w/good style, but that he'd be full of shit. I knew Obama would play defense this time, feel out Romney (yea there's lots of game film to speak, but he still had to see how Romney would debate versus him), see what lies Romney would tell...then he'd be able to come out w/an updated strategy for game 2 & 3, along w/Biden (who already has the greenlight to pounce on Ryan, which he will, that'll be a blowout). So now we have Romney going to the middle right at the debate (most candidates at least try to do that right after their primary end)...we're starting the in b/t debate material (just like how in b/t games you study game film, put out media press etc) high lightening Romney's BS. You run those ads in swing states mostly (the debate audience you really want to tune into the debates)....then the next debate Obama can come out with "Well Gov. Romney, said this @ last debate, but said this before, but then said this after" etc. etc. And he'll do it w/a bit more umph, but still, if you're expecting him to be as aggressive as Romney or as Biden will be able to be towards Ryan, I think you're in for a surprise. He still has to keep it someone cool due to wanting to seem presidential & not seem as the angry black guy. Some of you laugh at the angry black guy stuff, but walk a mile in my damn or any other black persons' damn shoes & you'll understand. Why liberals may have laughed at the DrudgeFail earlier this week, that GOP base, some indys of the "working class" whites, that tape resonated w/them as in "oh see Obama is an angry black guy" when if Obama had said the same thing but looked like Romney, it'd be fine. So deal w/fact Obama can/will still let Romney know his stuff is BS in the next 2/3 debates (w/more eye contact etc.) but don't expect him to unload on the guy & come to the point to where it seems he's almost yelling at him the whole time. Just deal w/it people, see the reality of the situation. Now onto the whole House of Rep deal & my thoughts...

      Seems critical thinking is lacking among my fellow liberals as well. Let me let you in on a little secret....come closer....the House was NEVER in play for this Nov. if you ask me. Pretty much since late last year/early this year had been saying in the Senate it'll be either a neutral aka 0 or at most 1 or 2 seat gain for us. In the House somewhere between 15-20ish. Now I will admit of late I had begun to think there was a slight chance we could take the House, but was still sticking w/that 15-20 number. Additionally my thinking was/is that in 2014 is when we'd pick up more seats in Senate to get back into mid/high 50s, & take control of the House then also. Reason being after Obama's re-election...these hateful social conservatives, they're still not going to work with Obama, they can't stand an "other" being in there, let's call it like it is. So I'm not expecting too many laws to come out of Congress, expecting more executive orders if needed...and GOP will continue to take a hit on their Congressional rating. Now as long as emo liberals like some I see here realize this, they'll hold tight next 2 years while realizing not much may get done, some bills that are passed may be watered down initially (it's about getting a foundation that can be built upon later, that's why you can amend laws at future times). But they, well some of you, will realize this, then you'll be sure to VOTE in '14 (unlike in '10 in which helped Tea Party GOP get in power) to help get Congress totally back. It's the liberal vote that will help us get Congress back in '14 b/c honestly ya know GOP won't vote their own out of office & while we'll get some indys to help us vote GOP out in '14, it will depend on that liberal vote to push it over the top....or rather finally push rest of GOP scum out to a point were the House is in Dem hands again.

      Why do you think Obama made the deferred deportation order go through '14!??!? Honestly in my opinion it's b/c as I just stated not much to possibly nothing (as social conservatives double down of the hatred of someone not from the good ol' boy network @ 1600 Penn Ave) will get done w/continued divided house next 2yrs. This 2yr hold over gets people in '14, new Dem majority Congress, immigration reform (whether just DreamAct or full reform which I think it will be) will pass then. Then those who were initial deferred list now become permanent. I mean some of y'all may not like it but the demographics of this country (aka liberals are not a majority whether you like it or not) won't allow for super liberal/progressive gains most of the time....at least right now. As country becomes more diverse, the youth in certain areas of the country become not as old/closed minded as their parents...then we'll get more liberal #'s...but it'll still be a while. That's not to say we can't have surprises from time to time, but overall we just don't have big enough #'s yet. So sometimes stair stepping is needed. So yea you're entitled to your opinion in that post, I'm entitled to mine, sure you hate it, good at least it meant you probably paid attention to it. Though I think my opinions, reasoning in this post are legit...from the current situation (debate, upcoming debates, to Obama winning re-election) the near term, 2014 etc.

      "I like your Christ, I do not like your Christians. Your Christians are so unlike your Christ." - Mahatma Gandhi Proud Obama Supporter! I write stuff sometimes Yea I'm on Twitter: wlfpack81

      by wlfpack81 on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 08:48:11 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  not a comment. please post as a diary. (0+ / 0-)
      •  Well tell me how you really feel! (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bridav58

        Look, I don't get the sky is falling analysis.  No, I'm not going to say that Obama's performance was particularly good (it wasn't as bad as everyone suggested).  But Romney's losing for reasons that weren't fixed in this debate.  He is extraordinarily disliked.  He didn't fix that.  No one dislikes him because of his deficiencies in sharpness or articulateness.  So being sharp and articulate doesn't help him win over voters.  Furthermore, Romney complains about the deficient economy and yet he offers no new solutions whatsoever.  Nothing specific anyway.  And people want to hear more.  Just because he was better prepared than the President, doesn't mean that he changed the equation.

        Here's the other thing.  President Obama's voters are voting for Obama because they like Obama and they see their votes as affirmative votes for Obama.  Strange enough to believe (I can barely believe it myself) but true.  Whatever you think of their styles (and frankly, I prefer a President Obama on an Ambien to a Romney on too much caffeeine), there's nothing in the debate that changes the equation.  

        Check out my new blog: http://socalliberal.wordpress.com/

        by SoCalLiberal on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 11:24:55 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  You hit the nail, Jacoby ... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      savvyspy

      But to think or admit that this debate was huge, and admit how lousy Obama was, is to be called a troll.

      Yes I post a lot; it's a place for posting, right?

      We called Mitt an unlikable robot. Maybe he is. But before 50 million viewers, most of whom were getting a first look, he kicked Obama's ass. I dont CARE that he lied! It's not a truth session, it's a TV show! He ALWAYS lies! That's why Obama needed to counter, not look like he was at the fucking dentist.

      Next debate town hall format -- he has GOT to rebound.

      Great news on the UE rate is welcome, but if the bad reports over the months were already 'baked in' to the polls, why will this time be different?

      And Big Bird?

      Are people joking?

    •  I think you have it wrong for so many reasons (0+ / 0-)

      but it would not be worth the effort to explain it all to you particularly given your attitude which suggests you are very full of yourself.

      Don't postulate; vote!

    •  A bounce debate can easily fade. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Linda1961, exterris, IM

      The expectation game has been reversed - heavily.  Republicans will be expecting Romney to be able to duplicate his debate performance which will be difficult.  Weirdly, Romney's surrogates are feeding into this idea with their reckless statements - Sununu's lazy statement, etc.,.  Mitt, in Republican eyes, has become a master debater as opposed to the serial liar and waffler he is in truth.  Considering Republican psychology, they will not be able to put that genie back in the bottle, thus, raising unrealistic expectations for their partisans.

      In the first debate, Team Obama focused on presenting their policy positions.  Obama has now proved (or proved AGAIN) he is calm and Presidential.  Now with his seeming passivity behind him, Obama can be as OR MORE disruptive than Mitt and get a free pass.  FOX will be unable to complain after Mitt's first performance.  MSNBC will be ecstatic after their jibes from the first debate.

      Mitt won't be able to disavow his positions (ie tax plan) but will have to defend them or be branded a flip-flopper or liar.  

      Finally since Mitt has embraced his Mass. record, the CEO-in chief will have to defend all of it (Mass employment numbers, etc.,).  

  •  I still can't fathom how Obama "lost" (10+ / 0-)

    It was at worse a wash. My wife was completely turned off by Romney and we both thought Obama presented himself well. He wasn't a firebrand. I wasn't expecting him to be. He wasn't perfect. But Romney came off a little unhinged, belligerent and a bully.

    I'm on the mindset that he was speaking to independents and pretty much no one else. Just look at the focus group results. Big gains on independents for Obama.

    I didn't see this Obama people are describing.

    I think the effect is that people were expecting Romney to trip over himself and scream out the N word or something, and since he put up a decent, if slightly unhinged, performance, he did well.

    Insert witty slogan here.

    by SniperCT on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 07:33:58 PM PDT

  •  FL-02. Please please please... (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    spiderdem, JBraden, itskevin, scamperdo

    Southerland needs to go back to embalming full time.

    I love George Takei for being aware and honest and sharing. And "the best damn pilot in the universe."

    by PHScott on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 07:35:24 PM PDT

  •  7 and 7.8 are the relevant numbers (22+ / 0-)

    I believe it will be seven days before we know for sure whether there was anything more than a temporary one or two point bump for Romney.

    Look. People are looking for confirmation bias right now and the mainstream media. They all went on a limb so far to say that Romney destroyed Obama in the debate that they are going to seize on any likeminded polls, no matter how quick or dubious they may be, to confirm that narrative.

    However, the 7.8% figure was a true blow to the momentum Romney may have had. That is why the conservative crazy conspiracists jumped all over it. In my entire adult life, I have never heard a Democrat or a republican or anybody, for that matter, question the Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers. Clearly, by nominating Romney and Ryan, not to mention the losers also-rans from the primary, the Republican Party has given up any semblance of shame or honor. They will attack anything. Their goal is to do one of two things. Either   win the election, or completely delegitimize Obama and the Democrats' win. The white wing nut jobs have completely jumped the shark.

    We on the left are not immune from this disease. Many are still walking around convinced that Bush stole Ohio in 2004. Perhaps, and perhaps Kennedy stole the election of 1960. I tend not to subscribe to conspiracies, since what is going on right in front of our face is bad enough, like Romney's 47% video.

    One bad debate does not turn an election around. Just ask Ronald Reagan and George Bush.

  •  Image (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, wishingwell

    It looks like there is a bounce for Romney, which stands to reason. It's harder to tell how big it is, and to what level it will drop.

    I expect Ras and Gallup to move in Romney's direction over the weekend, as post-debate samples come in.

    But, then there's the jobs numbers. I'm not sure about those. The comparatively bad numbers just after the DNC did not have an influence at all. Not sure about these. It did, however, steer the media narrative away from Obama's poor debate performance, which is good.

    There's one thing that could be bad news: it seems that the likability of the candidates has played a perhaps bigger role than usual. Romney was defined early, and perhaps too well defined, to the point of a caricature. But now a number of people who had not seen much of Romney before, and only knew the caricature version of him, saw a guy who didn't seem so bad in the debate. And who looked better than Obama. Those people will be harder to get back.

    So, I think there will be a bounce. It will fade, but Romney will end up at a higher base number. Time will tell.

    Any polls before Tuesday are really useless. Including the PPP one currently running in VA (which I think will show a very slight lead for Obama).

    •  The 7.8 unemployment rate has an important (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MBishop1, LordMike, bridav58, IM, Supavash

      psychological impact because the media has been so focused on the unemployment rate during this campaign. And the unexpected drop is supported by some other recent economic events..........layoffs during August and Sept are at the lowest they've been in 4 years; homes sales are improving; same with car sales and consumer confidence has moved up strongly since July. All suggest that the declining unemployment rate is not some Dem's fantasy.

      •  Yes .. (0+ / 0-)

        It's phsycological...It's under the 8% threshold just like the stock market getting back to a specific level after the clash, consumer confidence going up,car sales going up and people like my son being able to transfer to different,better jobs ,home sales improving and on and on.

  •  I have to admit. I have the same opinion (19+ / 0-)

    as Bill Maher on this one.  I hate being on the left because most of the people are such wusses.  He only speaks about the Democrats in Congress.  I am frustrated with the wimps at this site who act like the sky has fallen because of the debate.  

    The fact that at least some of these losers are professional concern trolls is comforting (honestly).  But that doesn't account for everyone here.  Let's be frank.  If President Obama's support was so flimsy that one glum debate performance can make him lose the election he deserves to finish in second place.  I think too many of you guys lived through too many previous Democratic election cycle losses.  The difference this year are the minority voters.  

    Nothing is going to sway them over to the Tea Party.  This aren't the same Democratic voters that lost to Reagan and the Bushes.  Judging by the voters at this site who swoon with every dip in the road, you get the feeling that many of them are cut from the same cloth as those who helped lose the election for Democrats from Carter to Clinton and the W's back to back wins.  It's not going to be the same this time, thankfully.  

    Obama's support is solid because he's not entirely counting on white people to vote for their own economic interests.  Minorities don't have the same blusterous pride in military power and vicariously living through rich white people.  

    Remember Harry Reid was supposed to lose in Nevada.  All the polls said that (it's not even the same here with Obama).  And what happened?  Who pulled him through?

    One other fact that gets under reported.  From what I hear naturalization processing times in the final stretch went from over six months to something like under three months over the last two years.  The processing centers were packed.  The crazy right wingers have been saying that Obama 'suppressed' the military vote.  Not true - but if we are to be honest -  I imagine it wasn't 'encouraged' in the manner that it had been under Bush.  

    On the other side of the fence, let's just say that something like 90% of naturalized Americans are going to vote for the right party and everybody knows that (who's going to vote for those obnoxious fucks in the Republican party except for stupid white people).  This half to a full percentage increase is not being counted by people working off of previous election cycles.  It could make the difference in some tight swing states.  

    It's not going to be a white Christmas this year.  

    •  AMEN!!!!! (12+ / 0-)
      If President Obama's support was so flimsy that one glum debate performance can make him lose the election he deserves to finish in second place.
      Best comment on this whole debate thing. Ever.
    •  The dedicated concern trolling at this site (7+ / 0-)

      Is unreal. I actually think Obama lost the debate, but you have morons proclaiming Romney will now win in a landslide. Then you have the concern trolls in the polling threads that ONLY cherrypick bad data points, and on the days when there is no bad news, they manufacture it "Only 10 points up in Ohio! I'm concerned! They'll steal it!". It's almost always the same people too, with upwards of 90-95% of their comments being not so subtle concern trolling. Yet nothing is done about it, and sometimes if you call them out others come to rescue "they're not a concern troll, they're just a worrywort!"

      Yeah, right.

      •  Ipsos/Reuters! Ipsos/Reuters! (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MBishop1

        As I've said, I think Romney will get a bump, perhaps a permanent +1/+2 gain in support from conservative leaners who will decide to break earlier than they otherwise would have.

        But I don't think I've ever seen so much attention given to a single result from any tracking poll, much less a second tier tracking poll. The fact that the Gallup, Ras and Rand polls were totally ignored to try to figure out just how terrible today's Ipsos/Reuters result could have been (if Obama got +88 on Monday, Romney could be +92 today!!!!) says it all.

        I understand the anxiety, but who the ** takes this much intellectual pride in their anxiety? Folks, we don't know yet! That's why you're anxious! You don't need to turn on the cognitive filtering to try to prove that electoral doomsday is nigh! If it's actually nigh, it will be plainly evident in a few days. Right now, it's not.

    •  Agreed !! Huller !! We need to hear this !!! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      keetz4

      Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

      by wishingwell on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 08:58:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I was shocked to hear MSNBC and also come here (6+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      keetz4, MBishop1, MKS, Linda1961, 42, askew

      to hear people tearing the President apart Wednesday night. I thought it was a tie.  I thought Romney came off as a bully as did all my female friends, a few of them are not Democrats either and a couple are Republicans.

      But my female friends and female family members plus my hubby and son thought Mitt came off as an arrogant jerk bully.

      Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

      by wishingwell on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 09:00:19 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I notice that too (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Linda1961

        A lot of women (unless they were of the unhinged Ingraham persuasion) are less impressed with grandstanding bullshit. A lot of men get angst ridden and brooding if they think their point isn't being made forcefully enough. Fortunately women are an increasing majority.

  •  Meanwhile, back at the plantation... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SoCalLiberal

    ...Get a load of this job ad that I actually saw on Craigslist today. The things they make you do for a fucking job these days is like a cross between George Orwell and Phillip K. Dick.

    JP
    http://www.welcomebacktopottersville.blogspot.com

    Defending bad taste and liberalism since 2005.

    by jurassicpork on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 08:12:49 PM PDT

  •  Numbers OK (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    Given what a horrible job Obama did in the debate, the polling numbers are OK.  They certainly could be worse.  But if Obama doesn't do a better job in the next two debates, the numbers WILL be worse -- and properly so.  AND another bad performance can pull down other Democratic candidates, so that Republicans end up being the lesser of two evils.  Obama had better start deciding how badly he really wants to be re-elected, and then take notice and govern himself accordingly.  Or in other words, he'd better start working his butt off preparing for the next two debates.

  •  I didn't want 3 prez debates. (4+ / 0-)

    So glad we have two more.  

    Obama has to fucking buck up and engage the lying sack of shit next time.  

    Obama said he was skinny but tough.  It's time to get tough again Mr. President.  

    Is there any room for Obama moderates around here?

    by Bagger on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 08:19:17 PM PDT

  •  Can't believe (0+ / 0-)

    ... that so many people are stupid enough to consider voting for Mitt the Twit.

  •  VA voters must really like the President (7+ / 0-)

    Most underreported figure from yesterday's PPP polling.

    VA respondents who watched the debate thought that Romney won, by 3:1 margin.  That's even worse than the national flash polls.

    Yet, on the first day of polling, he's running just 1% worse than he ran after one day of polling in the last PPP VA poll.

    People must really, really, like the President.

    Amazing.

    https://twitter.com/...

    https://twitter.com/...

    Learn about Centrist Economics, learn about Robert Rubin's Hamilton Project. www.hamiltonproject.org

    by PatriciaVa on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 08:21:50 PM PDT

  •  Unfortunately you don't include WAA's memo (0+ / 0-)

    that has you chiding them and the link to their poll returns a permission error. So no clue what you are talking about here. i expected you to include the text below the fold from your teaser Steve.

    "Do what you can with what you have where you are." - Teddy Roosevelt

    by Andrew C White on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 08:26:21 PM PDT

  •  I'd like to see some more real polls (4+ / 0-)

    Not just Republican ones looking to create buzz for the Republican campaigns by coming up with some vaguely conceivable numbers.  I think Rasmussen outs himself for what he really is with his Virginia numbers.  Does anyone honestly think Romney is leading Obama in Virginia while Kaine is well ahead of Allen?  Can you find me any Romney-Kaine voters or Obama-Allen voters?  

    I mean I suppose there might be a black Republican or two in Virginia (Virginia historically has had a lot of them) who would vote for Obama out of racial loyalty but continue to vote Republican downballot.  And you know, maybe there's some old blue dog Dem in rural southwest Virginia who won't vote for the President because the President is black but will otherwise vote Democratic.  I think though that those odd voters must have already been accounted for.  There's not going to be an explosion of them because of a debate.  

    The good news on economic numbers will help the President and take away any momentum (to the extent there is any) for Romney.  

    Check out my new blog: http://socalliberal.wordpress.com/

    by SoCalLiberal on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 08:26:29 PM PDT

  •  I'm having a (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SoCalLiberal

    difficult time believing Romney's Virginia numbers from Ras based on their Senate race polling...there seems to be a pretty large discrepancy between the races. A House race I could understand, but not Senate numbers...I haven't been paying that close of attention to Kaine's numbers but I do remember recently reading he was trending upwards. I would think if Romney's "Bullshit Baffling" was effective at all, downticket races would tip a little bit towards the R side. Doesn't seem to compute, but then again-I am definitely no expert in this arena(actually very few arenas...hahaha).

    Also, wondering if, with today's jobs numbers, was the sudden jump in 'people actually in the workforce' the reason for Obama's recent upswing in approval?

    If you think it's a good idea to not have to call your insurance company immediately after being pulled from a flaming wreck to make sure the ER visit is covered-you might be FOR the PPACA

    by workingclasszero on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 08:29:30 PM PDT

  •  I hope Obama and team learned some lessons from (7+ / 0-)

    the debate and I hope Kossacks did, too.

    Stop enabling the other side by weeping, wailing and gnashing of teeth around here for days on end. We need all the energy to GOTV more than ever. And all the breast-beating around here when we get a bad day further screws us up and drains our energy.  

    We can still win this thing no matter how the debates turn out. Rachel had a good presentation yesterday on how most of the incumbents sucked at the first debate and learned for the second one.

    "To hunt a species to extinction is not logical."--Spock, in Star Trek IV.

    by Wildthumb on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 08:47:58 PM PDT

  •  I know I'm going to get slapped around for saying (18+ / 0-)

    this but I have never seen such a bunch of bedwetters then Democrats!  One lackluster performance from Obama, and now Mitt's shameless lie-o-thon is sending everyone into a frenzied echo chamber. How about looking at the REASONS why Mitt's debate performance is NOT going to be a game changer the GOP hopes it is.

    1. Where was the BIG “gotcha moment”, folks?

    Before the debate, every political analyst agreed that Romney had to land a knockout blow to really change the electoral map. He didn’t.

    2. Obama never made a major presidential gaffe.

    There were no glancing at watches, sighing, or saying something that could be repeated in a Romney ad. Translation: There was NO YouTube moment. In fact, the one takeaway most voters will remember from the debate was Big Bird trending on twitter.

    3. Not only did Romney FAIL to land a knockout blow, he was too aggressive.

    Romney came off looking like a bully. This is Romney’s greatest weakness as a candidate. He lacks compassion. Not only did Romney not land the knockout blow, he failed to close the empathy gap with the voters he needs most. Undecideds.

    4. He LIED ABOUT EVERYTHING!!!

    Factcheckers heads exploded the world over! Romney contradicted his own policies faster than he could get the words out of his mouth and gave OFA a treasure trove of material.

    I'd be SHOCKED if this "bounce" lasts a week. If that.  One strong debate is not going to erase everything that came before regardless of the chattering class are saying. Romney is still the lousy candidate he always was.  Only now, the undecideds are paying attention.

    And finally, let's give a BIG THANK YOU to the Jobbers out there for making the CONSPIRACY theory the dominating story that the Sunday political shows will be rehashing instead of Romney's "triumphant" debate performance.

    Don't tell me the moon is shining; show me the glint of light on broken glass. ~~ Anton Chekhov

    by zoebear on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 08:53:58 PM PDT

    •  It was stupid (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stroszek, LordMike, bridav58, Linda1961, askew

      Especially the ones on TV. Now they just handed the Sunday news shows the clips and tweets they'll need of "Obama's base turning on him." Thanks a lot guys. If the President wasn't on top of his game, at least he didn't give the other side ammo to use against him. That's more than can be said for his alleged fans.

      Everyone I spoke to who watched the debate pretty much shrugged their shoulders, and said neither one really did that good or bad.

      •  I was actually referring to the Conservative loons (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ddn, bridav58, Linda1961, exterris

        disputing the unemployment numbers from the BLS today and going as far as to accuse the President of manipulating the numbers for his political gain.

        THAT conspiracy theory coming from the likes of former GE CEO Jack Welch (and ardent Romney supporter), desperate Alan West, et al., and the reaction to their outrageous utterances from the media has been the lead in to all the pundit news shows today, as well as my twitter feed.

        And I suspect that will continue on the Sunday Political talk shows, as well as WHY that accusation about the BLS is LUDICROUS and WHY the jobs numbers have indeed improved.

        The topic of debate performances from both candidates I suspect will be relegated to the shadows in favor of the blaring light of this big juicy political story of conspiracy theories and crazy accusations being hurled once again at our President.

        God, is it any wonder the man's hair is gray?  These people are relentless.

        Don't tell me the moon is shining; show me the glint of light on broken glass. ~~ Anton Chekhov

        by zoebear on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 09:58:21 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I agree with No. 3 the most (4+ / 0-)

      I suspect that many women were turned off by Romney's behaviour, because I definitely was. I don't know about minorities, but Romney definitely didn't do himself any favours if he was trying to woo their votes.

      "My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world." -Jack Layton (1950-2011)

      by Coco Usagi on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 09:11:17 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  No slap from me. I agree with you completely.n/t (0+ / 0-)
    •  People have ridden Obama's great performances. (0+ / 0-)

      We need to clone some Governor Deans, people able to think on their feet and people able to make quick analytical decisions. We had so much to work with and we got people unable to say everything you said.

    •  You summed it up better than I did (0+ / 0-)

      Check out my new blog: http://socalliberal.wordpress.com/

      by SoCalLiberal on Fri Oct 05, 2012 at 11:28:11 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Man, that Hawaii 2nd poll is amazing (0+ / 0-)

    for a non-incumbent who almost nobody would have heard of until this year.

  •  no offfense (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JPhurst, War on Error

    i am a left leaning libertarian.  i love this place for the smart analysis.  

    but the bed wetting on statements and nastiness of politics is just too much.  politics ain't bean bag.  

    romney kicked obama's ass.  it was a poor performance.  so what.  it wasn't devastating loss.  obama didn't puke or cry.  but the idiots like rachel m.  and chris mathews......and the rest of the left wing cry babies is sickening.  

    and half the people on this site.   it is very telling.   people that have played team sports as a youth are much tougher skinned and back their friends much better than the nerds that never played sports.  

    i hate dumb jocks,  but wimpy cry babies that don't back their own,  are worse.  

    turn off rachel and mathews.   they are wimps.  at least sharpton has a spine.  

  •  Anyone notice that Howard Fineman has been quiet (0+ / 0-)

    on Twitter today? I suppose he could be busy, but I can't help but recall that he's never missed an opportunity to issue his grave concern that a bad Friday job report is bad news for Obama. He tweeted after the convention that the August report wiped out all the good will.

  •  Surrogates hitting the jobs numbers would rock. (0+ / 0-)

    I would love to see Governor Granholm and the Major of Atlanta and Governor Strickland. I would really love to see Senator Webb hit the GOP on jobs. The vote against the veterans jobs bill was the most horrible thing. The GOP has done more than root for a bad economy. They've intentionally tried to stall it.

  •  It was very unlikely that Obama would lead from (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Linda1961, exterris

    August to November in all the swing states all the time. Obama is letting Mitt have his little bump now, and getting some people interested in the race now who were not interested before.

    He is still going to win, and win big. This is all part of the process.

  •  BREAKING NEW POLL..GREAT NEWS FOR OBAMA (0+ / 0-)

    Just seen on line:

    Obama: 51
    Romney: 43

    775 LV nationwide&xC5;

    Here's the link:

    www.farmerjohnsausage.pig

    Yeah, that's right. This poll has about as much relevance as all those crap in your pants polls everyone has been freaking out about the last 2 days.

    Time to chill out!!

  •  CNN & Fox may release polls this weekend (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    badlands, Supavash

    might get something from AP/GfPAK also.

  •  Is was not so much the whole debate (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash

    Its that the President badly fumbled the closing statement.

    This was compounded by Romney who got the last word hitting it out of the park with a very strong attack on Presidents record on unemployment and the economy.

    With the unemployment rate at 8.3% there was some truth to the Romney attack and Obamas failure to aggressively defend his records of 30+ months of job growth through out the entire debate or even in his closing statement kept me tossing and turning in bed the entire night.

    But then on Friday the unemployment rate drops to 7.8%.
    Romney's most devastating attack suddenly became invalid.
    The jobs report is 10 times more devastating to the Republicans than the debate was for us.

    •   and two other things.. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Supavash, LordMike

      1. Romney seems to have things that should help him like the RNC & hisd debate performance be upstaged by things like Clint Eastwood's chair act and Big Bird getting fired.

       2. Romney and GOP don't know how to keep their mouths shut ,Romney had the 47% meme buried by his debate performance what does he do ? The day after his big day brings it back up ,in a bad form at that, and reintroduces it to the news cycle. Then the jobs report and the GOP alledging a conspiracy around it plus seemingly pushing that it is bad news because it hurts their election chances. The conspiracy charge makes them look bad plus in discussing such keeps the "UE is under 8%' meme in the news cycle even longer.

  •  Steve Singiser, ummm, is it me... or (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash

    were you only teasing? "My problem with the firm was the polling memo itself. It was ... well, honestly, there was no other word to describe it ...giddy."

    Well, where is that memo? I reread your piece, didn't see it, didn't see a link. What up?

  •  NV-Sen is a Very Important Race (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash

    Looking at the size of the poll attacks.

  •  Doesn't anyone find it curious (0+ / 0-)

    that the DGA would poll MT and only ask for the Presidential and the House races, but not for the Senate and especially the gubernatorial races as well?

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