I have thought about the next few weeks, so I am going to put on my Nostradamus hat on and share some thoughts on things to look for over the next two weeks.
Obama is going to be better, but what will the ratings be like?
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- We all know that Team Obama is going to prep their guy to be effective in the next debate. He is going to show up, and articulate his case well. A town hall format is going to work well for the President, considering he is much better at speaking to a live person with feedback than he is to directly into a camera.
However, as this chart shows http://uspolitics.about.com/... the first debate draws the biggest audience of the three debates: in 2004 there was a drop of 10.5 million in terms of total people watching. For some reason it doesn't show the 2008 debates.
Is the next debate going to buck that trend, viewership wise? The intense interest in Obama's no-show might mean a lot more people tune into the next debate. However, if Obama wins say 55-45 in terms of perception of who won the debate, and 55 million people tune in (as opposed to 67 million in the first debate) how much of a difference is that going to make poll wise?
Romney is knocking on the door of a win, but those last points are the toughest to get
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- Compassionate conservatism. Reformer with results. Immigration reform against the will of a hostile party. A humble foreign policy.
Bush-Rove spent almost 8 months hammering those phrases into the public consciousness in 2000. They didn't do so because they were worried about getting 47% - they did so because they had to win the 2-3% of Americans who consider themselves moderate and voted for Bill Clinton to support them. They are the toughest percentage points to get.
So where is Romney now? He is at 47.5 in poll aggregates. Conservatives are elated that he is either tied or down by 1 at the most 2 with the president. He is down 1 in Virginia, 1 in Ohio, 2 in CO, 2 in IA, 3 in PA. Very small margins. But those last two points are the toughest to get. They are why you call yourself a compassionate conservative for months to secure that 2% in the end. Romney hopes that he can paint himself as a moderate for a month and still get that last 2% - color me skeptical. Courting hispanic voters, or teachers, or blue collar union guys, or suburban catholic voters to a party they view with some suspicion probably needs a lot more work than a month of moderation.
Playing the long game, is the Democratic Party better off with a Romney win in 2012?
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- According to Politico, Obama thinks a sustained economic recovery is right around the corner. He doesn't want Romney to win and take credit. Color me skeptical.
Hundreds of billions of dollars of stimulus (military spending, payroll taxes, unemployment insurance) will most likely be axed in the next few months. Gas prices are going to stay sky high draining the wallets of consumers. Uncertainty in Europe. Not the makings of an economic recovery.
Scenario. Obama wins, but the GOP keeps the House and they squeak out a win in the Senate 51-49. They refuse to compromise and keep passing their far-right legislation which the President keeps on vetoing. The economy stays in the gutter through 2015, with unemployment at 7.6%. Gas is at 4.90 a gallon around the country.
Fair or not, but the Democratic party would get killed in 2016. On top of the well-documented electoral fatigue that the public has with a political party after they held the White House for 8 years (which makes it so difficult to win 3 times in a row) they would no longer be able to blame Bush for 8 years of weak economic performance and people would blame the president and not congress for not getting things done.
The GOP sees opportunity and nominates a solid conservative to a 400 electoral vote win in 2016 along with controlling both bodies of Congress.
My point is Obama should spend some time and give some money to the DSCC to help them take back the House. His presidency and his parties future might depend on it. To me that was the real tragedy of debate: they were on the way to an electoral romp with a spread of say 54-43 and they could have used the last two weeks to prop up Democratic House Candidates around the country. They could have had a chance to recreate the 2008 Congress and had a second shot to get big bills passed. Now they are going to be in a fight for their lives all the way to November.