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Here's what's new in our Orange to Blue races.
 

Speaker Pelosi project bug
Speaker Pelosi Project:

CA-10: The SIEU announced today that it's going to be airing two 60-second Spanish language radio ads for Democrat Jose Hernandez. You can listen to the ads here. Which is good, because "two leading Republican groups, American Action Network and the Congressional Leadership Fund, are teaming up to spend nearly $13.5 million in House battles across the country." And one of the members they're defending is Hernandez's opponent, Rep. Jeff Denham.

MN-08: This is another race those two groups are investing in, trying to keep GOP Rep. Chip Cravaack safe. Earlier, David Nir looked at what appears to be new polling from Global Strategy Group for the DCCC: "GSG's latest numbers have GOP Rep. Chip Cravaack tied with Democrat Rick Nolan at 42 apiece, suggesting both candidates have had their numbers driven down since that August poll, when Nolan led 45-44. There are no presidential toplines, but Dems lead on the generic congressional ballot, 43-40, and Sen. Amy Klobuchar is destroying Republican Kurt Bills, 58-31." Klobuchar reportedly has a kick-ass ground team that is carrying Nolan along.

NH-01: Well, this is a novel fundraising approach.

Either @FrankGuinta had his wallet stolen in Madrid and needs a loan for $1,800 wired ASAP or his e-mail was hacked #nh01 #nhpolitics
@JamesPindell via TweetDeck

No comment from the Annie Kuster Carol Shea-Porter campaign on this odd appeal from Guinta.

Upgrade the Senate bug
Upgrade the Senate:

CT-Sen: Consider the source, but Rasmussen has Chris Murphy up on Linda McMahon 51-46. Those are good trendlines for Murphy, who trailed in the last Ras poll 46-49.

MA-Sen: And the lastest poll from MassINC's for WBUR) now has GOP Sen. Scott Brown up 48-45 over Elizabeth Warren. But just a week earlier, they had Warren up 49-45, and scarcely two weeks before that, they found Warren leading 47-42. We've got to see more polling in this one before panicking, but it sure ain't over.

NM-Sen: Rep. Martin Heinrich might just be rubbing it in at this point. He just released a new internal, from GBA Strategies, in which he's beating Wilson by a dominant 55-42.

Fight for Marriage bug
Daily Kos for Marriage Equality:

Washington. Andy Towle has a good write-up on the latest out of Washington state. The happy news: "63 priests with more than 800 combined years of service to the church are coming out in support of marriage equality on Thursday." The not so happy news: "NOM-backed group Preserve Marriage Washington just injected $650,000 into the battle there."

Originally posted to Joan McCarter on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 03:58 PM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (9+ / 0-)

    "There’s class warfare, all right, but it’s my class, the rich class, that’s making war, and we’re winning." —Warren Buffett

    by Joan McCarter on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 03:58:49 PM PDT

  •  Good News! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jan4insight, grover

    PPP has the amendment to ban marriage equality trailing 49 to 46.  I think this might be the first poll that has the good guys in the lead.

    •  I feel really good about this one. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Odysseus

      I'm seeing a lot of activity by Catholics for Marriage Equality Washington State on my FB page (numerous friends are members), and they seem to actively working in their communities. It isn't just priests who have the ears of Catholics, after all. Fellow parishioners do too.

      Generally, our joke has always been Washington tends to be just a godless state, compared to most others. There aren't as many religious citizens, and even those who are religious don't go to church to be told what to do.

      Washingtonians who are liberal, those who are in the middle, and those who are conservative tend to agree on one thing: they don't like too much authority in their lives, whether it's the church or the government.

      It's just who we are, I guess it's because of our frontier past and our location way up here in the corner, where no one pays too much attention to us.  We like it that way.

      I think that in the end, the ban fails, and by a decent margin.

      © grover


      Join Muppets Against Mitt! Go to www.barackobama.com to join now. This message brought to you by the number 2012 and the letters B and O.

      by grover on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 07:33:01 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Heinrich (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jan4insight, jnhobbs, bear83

    This makes me happy.  I look forward to him being my Senator.  There aren't enough people who give value to science and the environment; Heinrich does.  A guy who knows the thinking of Aldo Leopold, for example.

    "If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the problem." Eldridge Cleaver, Black Panther Party (quoted by Paul Ryan without proper attribution)

    by Land of Enchantment on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 05:19:25 PM PDT

  •  I'd be surprised (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    psammead

    if the Kuster campaign was very concerned about Guinta's wallet.  The Shea-Porter campaign may be,  though.

    Ever get the feeling you've been cheated?

    by ActivistGuy on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 07:21:51 PM PDT

  •  What is wrong with Massachusetts? (0+ / 0-)
  •  MN - 08 & Senate (0+ / 0-)

    Listened to the Nolan-Cravaaaaack debate today.  Nolan did well--not as slick as Cravaaaaack, but "slick" isn't what northern Minnesotans want anyway.  Nolan attacked most of the debate, and most of the attacks were effective, particularly on Medicare and the need for middle class demand for job creation.  This is a huge race we need to win, because it would be a tragedy if Teabagger Cravaaaack became entrenched.  

    Regarding Klobuchar, does anyone know if she has done much for other MN Dems?  She has this race easily in hand and she has a huge war chest....I'd be absolutely disgusted if she sat on it.  

    •  I was in NE MN for the 2004 election (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      angry marmot

      the ground game there put on by the unions/activists is a sight to behold if it can be matched.  They kicked up 110% voter participation that year and some said many doors in heavy Dem parts of Duluth were knocked on up to 3 times on election day reminding people to vote.  

  •  Re: Jose Hernandez (and Ami Bera) (0+ / 0-)

    They are just getting peppered with attack ads here in the Sacramento market. I do see some occasional anti-Jeff Denham ads, but significantly fewer.

    "Romney/Ryan 2012 - A chicken in every pot, a burka in every closet."

    by Otis29 on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 07:43:29 PM PDT

  •  New Mexico (0+ / 0-)

    Heather Wilson and her 'independent voice' are just about all played out.  I'm looking forward to the time when the same can be said of Steve Pearce.

  •  NH-01-Obligatory Nigerian Spam e-mail jokes (0+ / 0-)

    go here

    The 1st Amendment gives you the right to say stupid things, the 1st Amendment doesn't guarantee a paycheck to say stupid things.

    by JML9999 on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 08:13:00 PM PDT

  •  hernandez is a great candidate (0+ / 0-)

    i saw him at the UCD rally today, and he's a good speaker with a fantastic bio. good to see SEIU getting his back. i can see him going far in CA politics.

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