National Journal sums up the swing states [movement since same pollster's last poll]:
The polls, all conducted after the debate and released early on Thursday, show a tight race across most of the states, though they also indicate that there has been little relative movement from surveys conducted prior to the debate:NBC/WSJ/Marist polls were Oct 7-9, while the Q-poll for CBS/NYT was in the field for a week, Oct 4-9.
-- Colorado: A new CBS News/New York Times/Quinnipiac University poll shows Romney inching in front of Obama, 48 percent to 47 percent, well within the poll's margin of error. [Romney +2]
-- Florida: An NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll shows a tied race, with Obama leading Romney, 48 percent to 47 percent. [no change]
-- Ohio: Obama remains ahead of Romney in the Buckeye State, 51 percent to 45 percent, according to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll. [Romney +2]
-- Virginia: An NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll shows the two candidates virtually tied, 48 percent for Romney, 47 percent for Obama. [Romney +3] But a CBS News/New York Times/Quinnipiac University poll shows Obama leading, 51 percent to 46 percent. [Obama +1]
-- Wisconsin: Obama leads in a CBS News/New York Times/Quinnipiac University poll, 50 percent to 47 percent, within the poll's margin of error. [Romney +3]
"The shifts are too small to measure," said Quinnipiac's Peter Brown of the three surveys his institute conducted for CBS News and The New York Times, "but the races in Wisconsin and Colorado are now too close to call."
As of today (with the 2 days after the debate being awful polling days for Obama, and included in the Q-polls but not the Marist polls), Obama stands at 275 EV on pollster.com, with CO, VA, NV and FL too close to call. While too close to call, Nate Silver sees FL leaning more in Romney's column, the rest in Obama's.
That's where Biden comes in.
In particular, according to research by the Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg, Mr. Obama’s performance was viewed poorly by unmarried women, who wanted a more combative tone and a sharper critique of Mr. Romney’s views about the middle class. Unmarried women were a crucial constituency for Mr. Obama in 2008, voting for him, 70 to 29 percent, over John McCain.Mark Blumenthal:
In a busy week in which Gallup began reporting polling results among voters deemed most likely to vote, Gallup Editor-in-Chief Frank Newport also announced a series of updates and modifications to the firm's methodology, including a significant boost in the number of survey calls to cell phones.This is an important adjustment that will make the poll better. More and more people use cell phones and not land lines. Hopefully, accuracy will be improved. See also Alan Abramowitz for more analysis.
In a blog post published Wednesday, Newport said that the changes reflect a process of "continually tweaking, modifying, and improving our methodology" in order to "stay consistent with changes in the communication behavior and habits of those we are interviewing."
Obama, like his opponents, embraces American exceptionalism and sees America as having a unique role to play in the world. The difference is that the President’s American exceptionalism isn’t about chest-thumping and cheerleading. His centers on our ability to show the world that a population of many faiths, cultures, and races can see itself as a single people, diverse yet united.Heard about the outbreak of fungal meningitis? This is from the Tennessean:
To President Obama, our role is to serve as an alternative model to fundamentalism of every stripe. In a multi-polar world defined by the clash between fundamentalism and pluralistic democracies, we must lead not only by the strength of our arms, but also by the example of our unity.
Much has been made in this election cycle of the “too much government” argument from voters who believe we are over-regulated at every level.
This past week underscores the need for government to intervene in our lives.
The nation’s health care system was mobilized this week after doctors, starting with an alert Vanderbilt physician, reported mysterious illnesses that have now been determined to be a rare outbreak of fungal meningitis. It’s made more than two dozen people sick in nine states, killing several. It was a government agency that connected the dots. It was a government agency that already had cited a Massachusetts specialty pharmacy that produced the medicine for regulatory violations. That pharmacy has now surrendered its license.