Approval: 52(-1)-43(+1)
Registered Voters: O 48 (-2) R 46 (+1).
LV: R 48 (e) O 47 (-1)
Some random stuff:
- At this point, I'm not sure the utility of the Gallup poll until the very last week before the election. Chuck Todd tweeted that any poll out there for 7 days should be disregarded; with breaking news + ads + candidate and surrogate visits, things change quickly. 3 day polls are better at this point. I tend to agree.
- On the flip side, Gallup is the most trusted name in the business. They recently changed their methodology to include 50% cellphones, 50% landlines.
- Apparently Romney had a big day either yesterday or Tuesday in every tracking poll out there, from a bit I read somewhere. Makes as much sense as Obama having a huge day everywhere on Sunday: ie very little.
- Best to take Kos' advice on this poll right now and wait until Sunday to get a more measured take of where Gallup is at without the spike of debates/bls numbers.
- This sample is D+5.
- Romney would need a 3 point swing in Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Nevada and CO to win. To me, that seems almost impossible to do at this stage. On the flipside..
- Is there any truth to the belief that undecideds break to the challenger in political races, especially pesidentials? I've read it in 2004 from Democrats and am reading it right now among Republicans, but I don't know where it comes from.
- Earlier this week Obama was up +9 in RV's. +2 now, big shift, but why?