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SIREN! Mason Dixon is out with a poll tonight showing Mitt Romney leading Obama 51-44 in Florida.

Other polls out today show Romney's lead more like 1-2, or if you believe a poll out yesterday from University of North Florida, Obama is actually up 4. So this is probably an outlier. (As Greg Sargent points out, it shows Mittens leading with Latinos.)

Here's why the poll still concerns me: When Obama had his lead before the debate, the "Shock Polls" that would be highlighted on Drudge would be the ones showing Obama tied or narrowly behind in Florida. Those were the outliers. Now, a poll like that would seem entirely normal. In other words, the range of potential outcomes has moved to Mitt Romney's side. The most pro-Obama Florida polls are those that are around even.

The bottom line is that there has been a uniform swing across the country towards Romney, and as he continues to surge, we'll see more "shock polls" like this one. I hope the remaining debates can shift the range back to where it was a couple of weeks ago.


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