Finally, we get a return to normalcy as the first day following the Obama/Romney debate drops off of the seven day average, which all pollsters agree was as bad for the prez as any prior day of polling ever.
The result:
Likely voters; 7-day rolling average
Oct 5-11
Romney 49 (48)
Obama 47 (47)
This has to be a devastating and bewildering development to the Obama team who, like us, were surely expecting a bounce back in their favor. Meanwhile, many swing state polls appear to be thinning. It makes you wonder if some of the more favorable readings like those from Ohio are really outliers. Everything gets colored with the same "tied or losing" brush going forward for Obama making the next debate all the more vital for him to score a substantial win.
Obama Approval/Disapproval; 3-day rolling average
Oct 9-11
Approve 50 (52)
Disapprove 44 (43)
Not catastrophic, but like the polling figures, definitely trending in the wrong direction. The Biden/Ryan debate appeared to be a net winner for Biden among undecided voters. The problem is ratings for the debate were tiny compared to the Palin trainwreck in 2008, there are few undecided voters left and, as has been repeated ad nauseum, they don't affect races. Think Benson/Quayle 1988. Benson had Quayle for dinner and GHWB still won 43 states.
Quayle on the United Negro College Fund
It's a terrible thing to lose your mind.
Gallup had this to say about the O+2 registered voters advantage -
From Gallup:
As is almost always the case in recent elections, likely voters at this point are more likely to support the Republican candidate than are all registered voters. Gallup's estimate of the vote choices of likely voters shows that Romney gains three percentage points among likely voters compared with the total registered voter pool, and Obama loses two points.
...
Gallup's inaugural likely voter results suggest that Romney at this point appears to have a turnout advantage, meaning that Obama will need to develop a strong lead among all registered voters in order to be assured of winning the actual popular vote. All in all, if the election were held today, Gallup's analysis suggests that the race would be too close to call.