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"So take that order, start adding up electoral votes until you hit 270. You're going to find a pivot state: a state that if Obama holds he wins and that if Romney can reach he wins, and that state has been Ohio for virtually the entire election cycle. It means that if Romney can get all the states up to that point, he can win this election. But that includes Florida and Virginia on top of Ohio and those are three big hurdles and that means on the flip [side] that all Obama has had to do is hold one of those states. Just one of those main three states, and that's what's been giving him that edge this entire time."

Obama's team is strong where it matters. They have made one mistake. As they say in Brooklyn: forgetaboutit! Stop hand wringing and read this article:

http://www.pbs.org/...

If you can't do that than please go hide under your covers until after the election. You are providing aid to the enemy at this point and you don't know what you are talking about.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (28+ / 0-)

    "There are two kinds of truth, small truth and great truth. You can recognize a small truth because its opposite is a falsehood. The opposite of a great truth is another truth." -- Niels Bohr

    by paxpi on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 12:36:59 PM PDT

  •  OHIO (7+ / 0-)

    Is there any room for Obama moderates around here?

    by Bagger on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 12:39:46 PM PDT

  •  um (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Murchadha, lgmcp, Supavash, VClib
    You are providing aid to the enemy at this point and you don't know what you are talking about.
    nice caricature. that is a caricature, right?

    we've gone from certain victory to probable victory. no one is happy about that. obama was so far ahead that he could afford one big hit. he took one big hit. he can't afford another. no one is happy about that, either.

    The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers

    by Laurence Lewis on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 12:46:55 PM PDT

    •  I'm so sorry you're not happy (18+ / 0-)

      But what did you expect? To coast to victory? Fight fight fight! Obama's team has been brilliant. They make one mistake and look at this place. It's pathetic.

      "There are two kinds of truth, small truth and great truth. You can recognize a small truth because its opposite is a falsehood. The opposite of a great truth is another truth." -- Niels Bohr

      by paxpi on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 12:49:04 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  actually (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Murchadha

        this place is honest about the fact that we went from certain victory to probable victory. yes, after romney's disastrous september i expected to coast to victory. it should have been easy. brilliant does not include blowing a huge lead and then needing to fight fight fight. we don't need to delude ourselves in order to be motivated.

        The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers

        by Laurence Lewis on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 12:52:50 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  No, we went from "election far away" (11+ / 0-)

          To "election getting close". This is what happens. Margins tighten and the bed wetting begins.

          The only honest thing this place should be saying is that it is going to take a lot of honest work to get the right people in office. Same as always.

          The proper response from the left to the lack luster "style" of Obama at the debate is: "We don't care! We are a reality based party who focuses on issues and content". That would be honest, or would it?

          "There are two kinds of truth, small truth and great truth. You can recognize a small truth because its opposite is a falsehood. The opposite of a great truth is another truth." -- Niels Bohr

          by paxpi on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 12:58:29 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  more of your juvenile rhetoric (0+ / 0-)

            no, actually, not all races get closer. many remain easy wins.

            the proper response to a lousy debate is to be honest. and that includes caring. if you care about who wins then you care about an event that makes that path more difficult.

            The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers

            by Laurence Lewis on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 01:01:29 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Rhetoric (6+ / 0-)

              Presidential races get close. 2000 and 2004 were down to a handful of voted and a Supreme court decision. This year we own the economy and we don't have Palin to kick around. You are not reality based if you expected to coast.

              Romney has made blunder after blunder. Obama has made one. Look at the results. What does that say about us? What does that say about what we're up against? Put the past behind you and change events for the future.

              "There are two kinds of truth, small truth and great truth. You can recognize a small truth because its opposite is a falsehood. The opposite of a great truth is another truth." -- Niels Bohr

              by paxpi on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 01:10:25 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  wrong again (0+ / 0-)

                not all presidential races get close. clinton coasted to re-election. as did reagan. the first bush coasted to his one victory.

                we didn't need palin, this year- we have romney. that one bad debate performance has caused this much damage tells me obama had a lot of soft support. we can do what we can do, but the biggest change for the future can come next tuesday. and we need to be honest about that, too.

                The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers

                by Laurence Lewis on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 01:18:21 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  So go back in time (6+ / 0-)

                  Recent elections have been close. If you thought this one was going to be easy you were out of touch. Romney is the one who got elected in my home State of MA. His team got Scott Brown elected in the same state. These guys know how to play the game.

                  If your position is that you are upset that it's close well to bad so sad. But you are no longer helpful. Come back when the weather is better.

                  "There are two kinds of truth, small truth and great truth. You can recognize a small truth because its opposite is a falsehood. The opposite of a great truth is another truth." -- Niels Bohr

                  by paxpi on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 01:25:46 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  every election has specific dynamics (0+ / 0-)

                    and after his august and september, romney was toast. but this:

                    If your position is that you are upset that it's close well to bad so sad. But you are no longer helpful. Come back when the weather is better.
                    you want to blow this election for obama? alienate the people who aren't cheerleaders. alienate the people who are working hard to get him elected. once again you are projecting.

                    The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers

                    by Laurence Lewis on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 01:30:01 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  How are you helpful? (4+ / 0-)

                      You are obsessing over things nobody is disputing. Last cycle Palin "fired up the base" and the polls went nuts. It takes opening a can of tuna to motivate these Republicans.

                      Yes, way back in time "Romney was toast" if the election was held "way back in time". You just don't know what you're talking about.

                      "There are two kinds of truth, small truth and great truth. You can recognize a small truth because its opposite is a falsehood. The opposite of a great truth is another truth." -- Niels Bohr

                      by paxpi on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 01:37:25 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  you might want to study (0+ / 0-)

                        historic election trends. you know, all the way back into the last century!

                        read my most recent posts and read yours. ask yourself which are more likely to motivate people.

                        The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers

                        by Laurence Lewis on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 01:40:42 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Ok, good posts (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          lockewasright

                          The community is over last weeks cognitive dissonance. We get the facts. Obama gets the facts. Now it's got to be about campaigning in a tight race. Obsessing here is not helpful.

                          "There are two kinds of truth, small truth and great truth. You can recognize a small truth because its opposite is a falsehood. The opposite of a great truth is another truth." -- Niels Bohr

                          by paxpi on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 01:46:54 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                    •  You know, I find the repetitive handwringing (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      paxpi

                      alienating. Waaah waah waah.

          •  It Would be Partly Beside the Point (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Laurence Lewis

            The voters focus only partly on issues. They also put a lot of weight on persona and party.

            Obama in that performance didn't simply make an error, he allowed Romney to cure what had been ailing his campaign all year, low confidence in his persona as a candidate.

            His voters and indies now trust him and are enthusiastic about him; unlike a messaging error we can never get that back.

            We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

            by Gooserock on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 01:04:41 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Same as when Palin was nominated (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              TLS66, bluedust, InformedDiva, EcosseNJ

              It takes opening a can of tuna to motivate these idiots. Why should we all jump off a cliff because of it? Obama made a mistake. He's not perfect. We are a part of this. We need to have his back.

              "There are two kinds of truth, small truth and great truth. You can recognize a small truth because its opposite is a falsehood. The opposite of a great truth is another truth." -- Niels Bohr

              by paxpi on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 01:12:16 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  I heard Obama say the other day (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Laurence Lewis, Micheline

          "We always knew this race would be close."  Of course his poor showing in the debate made it closer than needed.

          The spirit of liberty is the spirit which is not too sure that it is right. -- Judge Learned Hand, May 21, 1944

          by ybruti on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 01:00:57 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Need is a strong word (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            countwebb, bluedust, InformedDiva

            And hindsight is a bitch. Now is the time to look at our current reality and take the actions necessary to win.

            "There are two kinds of truth, small truth and great truth. You can recognize a small truth because its opposite is a falsehood. The opposite of a great truth is another truth." -- Niels Bohr

            by paxpi on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 01:15:27 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  I don't disagree with you... (5+ / 0-)

          ...but frankly, there's plenty of time for the post-mortem, either way, after the election.  Because dwelling on mistakes at this point can, indeed, be discouraging, while offering no advantage whatsoever.

          •  it's not dwelling (0+ / 0-)

            it's understanding what went wrong and what has to happen to stop the slide and regain a more solid lead. calling romney on his lies has been how many of us have been trying to repair some of the damage. but berating people for caring about what went wrong, or pretending that that nothing did go wrong, doesn't help.

            The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers

            by Laurence Lewis on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 01:27:27 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  But we played a part in what went wrong (2+ / 0-)

              why don't you own up to that. Accountability goes both ways. The president sucked, fine but that does not explain why this community made effort to fight back the narrative like they did last night. The narrative started out as a draw and tie for Biden last night, even the CBS polls good but not great but the base got is red meat and slowly there are pundits here and there who are calling it a Biden win. You can't just blame Obama and pretend the base and site like this are not part of the feedback. That's just irresponsible. If you want to dwell on something, dwell on what can be done to keep the base enthused besides waiting on polls to tell them they are enthused.

              If I knew it was going to be that kind of party, I'd have stuck my ---- in the mashed potatoes! - Paul's Boutique

              by DoctorWho on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 02:49:46 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  because we're honest (0+ / 0-)

                obama had a lousy night, and the attempts to spin it otherwise were embarrassing. biden had a good night, and gop attempts to spin it otherwise are what we expect from them.

                The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers

                by Laurence Lewis on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 08:14:33 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

          •  I'm wondering if that is his goal (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bluedust

            Or if they are just naturally obsessively morbid. They are obsessing over things nobody is disputing.

            "There are two kinds of truth, small truth and great truth. You can recognize a small truth because its opposite is a falsehood. The opposite of a great truth is another truth." -- Niels Bohr

            by paxpi on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 01:31:54 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  It's a mix of Dems who only know how to lose (2+ / 0-)

              and trolls that are popping up here and elsewhere. Dkos is such a hug-first community it's a lot easier for trolls to get under your skin. And the doomers don't know how to think any other way. Even when Obama was leading they still would look at it from negativity (they're going to steal, his lead needs to be higher, complacency!). It's part of the damaged mindset of the Dem base and I admit I really don't get it. It's beyond bizarre.

              If I knew it was going to be that kind of party, I'd have stuck my ---- in the mashed potatoes! - Paul's Boutique

              by DoctorWho on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 02:53:16 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  No it's not. That's an excuse for being fearful (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          elmo, Micheline, paxpi

          and not being accountable for playing into debate defeat narrative. At least at other sites like DU there is a greater sense of fighting back the narrative despite disappointment. This place crumpled like a house of cards. Pathetic.

          If I knew it was going to be that kind of party, I'd have stuck my ---- in the mashed potatoes! - Paul's Boutique

          by DoctorWho on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 02:45:07 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  oh, stick a sock in it (0+ / 0-)

          No victory is certain based only on polling weeks before an election.

    •  maybe, but is dwelling on it helping anything? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      librarisingnsf, elmo

      No, it's not.

      If you're concerned or scared, good -- maybe it'll make you fight harder.  We've still got around a month worth of battling time left.  A lot can be done in that time.

      Frankly, the race tightening up a little might be a good thing... it might shock people out of their goddamned complacency.

      So, worry all you want.  But don't bring anybody else down with it -- just encourage 'em to fight harder.  That is useful.  Hand-wringing, though, is a loser's game.  And "happy" doesn't matter -- motivated is what we need.

      "Glenn Beck ends up looking like a fat, stupid child. His face should be wearing a chef's hat on the side of a box of eclairs. " - Doug Stanhope

      by Front Toward Enemy on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 01:04:05 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  if facts bring people down (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Supavash, VClib

        that's life. a week ago a lot of people here were claiming obama didn't have a bad night, or even more absurdly, that it was part of his game plan. people should be motivated because of the importance of the election, not because of the polls.

        The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers

        by Laurence Lewis on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 01:09:17 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Fact is established. Move on! (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Front Toward Enemy, doroma, v2aggie2

          We need new facts. Who's going to create them? Not a bunch of whiners dwelling on the only mistake the Obama campaign has made. Heal the error!

          "There are two kinds of truth, small truth and great truth. You can recognize a small truth because its opposite is a falsehood. The opposite of a great truth is another truth." -- Niels Bohr

          by paxpi on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 01:13:36 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  the facts are what they are (0+ / 0-)

            today. if being honest about the facts bothers you, maybe some of your rhetoric is self-projection. we're all doing what we can. and that includes facing reality.

            The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers

            by Laurence Lewis on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 01:21:53 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  gee, you're right... (5+ / 0-)

          I think I'll go draw a bath and slit my wrists.

          Y'know, if I didn't hate the Republicans so much, I'd never hang out with Democrats.   Too many masochists with too much loser-fucking-attitude.   Just weak.

          The reality is we're not losing, we're just not walking away with it like we were last week.  And so what?

          Save the crying for November, and maybe you won't have to do it at all.  Now's the time for fighting.  If you don't have the stomach for it, stand aside.

          "Glenn Beck ends up looking like a fat, stupid child. His face should be wearing a chef's hat on the side of a box of eclairs. " - Doug Stanhope

          by Front Toward Enemy on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 01:26:56 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Now you're just exacerbating w/ strawmen (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          paxpi, estreya

          and conflating what's happened aka dead horse. Look if you think the race is lost then get out of the way and let the rest of us pick up your slack.

          If I knew it was going to be that kind of party, I'd have stuck my ---- in the mashed potatoes! - Paul's Boutique

          by DoctorWho on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 02:55:14 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Thank you, Laurence. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Laurence Lewis

      You have been a breath of fresh, reality-based air lately. Thank you.

      Compassion is not weakness, and concern for the unfortunate is not socialism.

      by Zutroy on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 01:25:59 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  i have [unfortunately] read some sick shit on (17+ / 0-)

    this website today

    "Emocrats" is too nice a title for some of these lily-livered losers

    Colorado has a much higher GDP than Utah because it is culturally superior

    by memofromturner on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 12:47:45 PM PDT

  •  Exactly right (7+ / 0-)

    Obama has 201 EVs from states uin which he leads by at least 9 points on average.  He is up 5.7 in my averages in Michigan=217.  Up 4.3 in Pennsylvania=237.  Up 3.2 in Iowa=243.  Up 2.7 in Wisconsin=253.  And up 2 in Ohio=271.

    He is also up 1.3 in Virginia, which would make it 284, up 0.8 in Nevada for 290, and up 0.7 in New Hampshire for 294.

    Romney meanwhile leads solidly in states giving him 181 votes.  Adding Missouri (Romney by 4) makes it 191.  Florida (Romney up 1.8) makes it 220.  North Carolina (Romney by 1.2) makes it 235.  Colorado (Romney by 0.2) makes it 244.  Then New Hampshire to 248.  Nevada to 254.  Virginia to 267.  And Ohio.

    I'mma let you finish, Barack, but the teabaggers have done about the most for international peace of all time.--The collective GOP 10/9/09

    by Superribbie on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 12:52:50 PM PDT

  •  its the sum of probabilities of possibilities.. (10+ / 0-)

    if not Ohio..

    then.. Florida or Virginia..

    my favorite is none of the above..

    just NH, NV, Iowa, NM & Colorado.. that gets Obama to 271 even if he loses Florida, NC, Ohio and Virginia..

    Can Romney stop all these paths?

    sure.. but he has got to have a lot of things break his way at the same time.

    I think the prediction markets are closer than the polls but still are discounting Obama's current advantage..

    that is because they are also assigning risk of change in the current situation based on  the fact there are still three weeks and things can still change..

    if those prediction markets were trying to predict what would happen if the election were tomorrow.. they would have Obama even further ahead as this risk of future events would be down to about zero with an election the next morning..but still 4 weeks ago.. there is a discount still being applied to Obama's lead.. even in those odds that substantially favor Obama winning on election day.

  •  Obama has more paths to electoral victory (10+ / 0-)

    than Romney.

    I still say the polling in CO and NV is under counting the Latino vote.

    It just seems that sometimes polls in those 2 states end up not matching the actual result, like 4 years ago and like in the Harry Reid Senate Race.  Maybe they underestimate Democratic turnout,. I do not know.

    But the electoral votes of NV plus CO plus IA equal the same number of voters of Ohio. That is a firewall.

    Mitt absolutely has to sweep FL, VA, OH, NC and also get one or two of these states..I wlll have to check electoral map but I think he needs IA and NV or NV and CO or something to that effect.  

    Mitt has fewer options than Obama and no firewalls at all. Obama has about 2 or 3 firewalls.

    Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

    by wishingwell on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 12:59:41 PM PDT

    •  the likely voter screens (8+ / 0-)

      also are likely under-counting obama voters. they did four years ago.

      The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers

      by Laurence Lewis on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 01:04:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  in 2008 & 2010 back you up (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      paxpi, wishingwell, elmo

      Obama overperformed Nevada polls by 6% points and Colorado polls by 3.5% points (using final RCP polling average)

      And in 2010 we all know what Reid did in Nevada (outperformed RCP poll average by over 8 points!).... but Bennett also outperformed in Colorado. Final RCP poll avg had Ken Buck up by 3%, Bennett won by 0.9%.

      Basically the polling in the last two elections have greatly underestimated Dem support in Nevada (by 6 & 8 points) and somewhat less so in Colorado (by 3.5 & 4 points)

      if that's happening again this year then Obama can actually get to 270 without Ohio, Virginia, or Florida! (go to Electoral-Vote.com and take away Ohio & Virginia (currently in Obama's column) and then add Colorado and you get to 272.

      I kind of see the Colorado/Nevada strategy as Obama's back-up plan. Even if Romney somehow manages to take Ohio - he's still got this in his back pocket.

      •  Me too , that is why I am so focused on NV, IA, CO (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        paxpi

        and I was asking questions about the polling in NV and CO as I see that as the best firewall if somehow Obama support collapses in OH. I do not think it will but should it happen, could to see a couple of firewalls.

        Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

        by wishingwell on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 02:45:15 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Can anyone answer this question of 2 states (0+ / 0-)

    that confuse me..providing current polling is correct.

    1.  What is happening in CO? Polls are very tight there and last time Obama won that state by something like 8 pct.  What has changed in 4 years?  I thought this state was trender bluer like Nevada is?  What is going on there, are their job numbers bad, well NV is worse but their polls are better. What is happening in Colorado.

    2. What happened to Indiana being a purple state and now deep red.? Granted Obama won Indiana by a very very small amount last time .  I could see the state being being pink or light red but it is Deep, deep Red. What happened to drastically change the political dynamics in Indiana in 4 years?   I mean to go purple to light red, OK , I can buy that..but to Deep red as shown by polling.

    Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

    by wishingwell on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 01:05:40 PM PDT

    •  CO is a surprise but is not a reliable blue state (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      paxpi, wishingwell

      Went for Dole, Bush twice. Still I expect it to tilt Obama by a couple of points on election day.

      Winning Indiana was a fluke and has never been considered a possible keeper for Obama. I guess in 2008 at the outset of an economic crisis, it was enough for Obama to take it.

    •  colorado (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      paxpi, wishingwell

      has less favorable demographics than nevada, and is a true swing state. indiana was a fluke, four years ago, a statement of just how tired people were of the bush era. indiana remains a solid red state.

      The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers

      by Laurence Lewis on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 01:13:13 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Ok thanks , that makes sense and it was perhaps (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Laurence Lewis

        Indiana had Bush fatigue and war fatigue too . Also, perhaps because the momentum was all Obama and it was rather a wave election in that way , at least electorally.

        Thanks for explaining Colorado, makes it very much a true swing state. People were calling PA a swing state but we voted for Clinton twice, and Gore and Kerry and Obaam. We have not voted for Repub for President since 88.  Now CO has replaced us as true swing state.

        Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

        by wishingwell on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 02:41:11 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Indiana was never really purple (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell

      A Democrat can be competitive there only if he's winning nationally in a landslide.  I've never thought this election would be a landslide.

      Bin Laden is dead. GM and Chrysler are alive.

      by leevank on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 01:34:27 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Very interesting article about prediction markets. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    paxpi

    Thanks for the link.  I especially liked this:

    People always ask me, "Well, how would prediction markets do if there weren't these polls? Are they just regurgitating these polls?" And the answer is, prediction markets do quite well, thank you. And we can tell that because prediction markets existed prior to polling. Standard polling that we know and love started in 1936 with George Gallup. And two great researchers, Koleman Strumpf and Paul Rhode, wrote a paper showing the history of prediction markets from the late 19th century up through that time and how they were incredibly effective in predicting elections. In 1916, around $200 million in today's dollars were exchanged on prediction markets on that election. That's a lot of money.

    PS: So in 1916 Woodrow Wilson beat Charles Evans Hughes and $200 million in today's dollars was bet on that election alone?

    DR: Yes. Back in the day they were actually some of the most traded stocks on Wall Street, predictions on elections every four years, and they did great. Link

    The spirit of liberty is the spirit which is not too sure that it is right. -- Judge Learned Hand, May 21, 1944

    by ybruti on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 01:12:41 PM PDT

  •  Too many liberals provide aid to the enemy (6+ / 0-)

    I can't believe the betrayal by white liberals in the past  month.

    It's been repulsive.

  •  Thanks for this. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    paxpi

    Took a look at the article which confirms some of my own beliefs.  I even learned a thing or two.

    Much appreciated.

    Until the economy recovers, I'll settle for cheap laughs

    by Clyde the Cat on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 01:22:25 PM PDT

  •  Ohio, Florida, Virginia! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    paxpi, Supavash, PorridgeGun

    Yes just one win out of three and Obama wins the whole thing; and really if you look at all of the polling from these states post-debate you will see Obama is still in a very good position ... maybe less so in Florida but very good in Ohio and strong in Virginia (NY Times/Q = Obama +5)

    And the really amazing thing is - Obama can actually realistically get to 270 even if he loses all three.

    Go to Electoral-Vote.com and check it out... with Ohio & Virginia Obama is at 294 but if you remove those 31 EVs ... he's down to 263 and needs 7 more...

    Colorado = 9

    Consider: Obama outperformed Colorado polling (RCP average) by 3.5% in 2008.

  •  This race was going to get closer because (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    paxpi

    of, well, race. Finally, Romney worked out that if he said he was just like Obama only white, his numbers would get better. That's what the first debate was all about. So, Obama has to disabuse voters of that notion.

    The other thing that I wonder about is the Latino factor, something I call the Reid effect. Harry Reid lagged Sharon Angle in the last election by about 5 points, I remember, and ended up winning by 6. I have heard that the polling was heavily skewed by the fact that pollsters would not poll Spanish-speaking households because the pollster spoke only English. I am prepared to be pleasantly surprised by the new Latino wave that has been under-estimated and anticipated for a while now. Maybe this is the year they really show up?

    For if there is a sin against life, it consists perhaps not so much in despairing of life as in hoping for another life and in eluding the implacable grandeur of this life. - Albert Camus

    by Anne Elk on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 01:58:27 PM PDT

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