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A week ago in my last diary, I projected how things would look without GOP pollsters gumming up the works. Obviously, anyone who believes GOP polls should contact me so I can sell them a bridge. The polls have only gotten worse since last week, but again, that was mainly among the right-wing astroturf polls that Nate Silver and the other Very Serious People now take at face value. That's not to say we haven't fallen in reliable polls as well, we certainly have, but the fall isn't nearly as big as the forecasting websites and GOP polls would have you believe.

Old map:

New map:

There have been seven changes, all in favor of Romney as the post-debate polling finally sinks in.

Colorado: Lean D -> Toss Up
Virginia: Lean D -> Toss Up
Nevada: Likely D -> Lean D
Ohio: Likely D -> Lean D
Wisconsin: Likely D -> Lean D
Michigan: Safe D -> Likely D
New Hampshire: Safe D -> Likely D

Obviously, there's not much for Dems to like here. But there are definitely some silver linings. For one, despite the fact that this was Obama's worst news cycle since the debt ceiling crisis and his firewall is still intact bodes well for a Dem victory, even if it is narrow. If Romney can't break through in Ohio, Wisconsin, and Nevada in his best week ever, how can he ever hope to in the next three weeks? Especially when he's getting pounded by Obama's ground game. Additionally, Romney has yet to bring any more states into his column (although North Carolina and Florida are both on the precipice of becoming "Lean R", and may very well do so once more reliable polling comes in in these states).

Now for the Senate:

There's only been 3 changes here in the past week, 2 in favor of the GOP and 1 in favor of Dems.

Florida: Safe D -> Likely D
Nevada: Toss Up -> Lean R

Virginia: Lean D -> Likely D

It's not exactly clear what is causing Kaine's surge in Virginia, especially since Obama is fading there at the same time. But the polls have been very clear. Personally I don't buy that Heller maintains any distinct advantage in Nevada, and may even be the underdog, due to the fact that polls there have drastically understated Latino turnout in the last 3 elections. I guess we'll see if that trend holds this year as well. Cornelius Harvey McGillicuddy IV gets his first sign of life in Florida from a non GOP pollster in a long, long time with a Mason Dixon poll showing him "only" down 5...in a sample with Romney leading by 7. Yeah, I think it's curtains for McGillicuddy, despite We Ask America's and Gravis's protestations of a dead heat race.

Likely D: MO(D), OH(D), PA(D), VA(D), FL(D)
Lean D: CT(D), MA(R)*, WI(D)
Toss Up: AZ(R), IN(R), MT(D), ND(D)
Lean R: NV(R)

Senate without Toss Ups, Angus King as Dem: 51-45-4.
Senate assuming candidate with tiny leads wins: 55-45. (GOP picks up NE and MT, Dems pick up ME, MA, AZ, IN).

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Comment Preferences

  •  I still have a bad feeling about this. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    PALiberal1, ZoBai, FiredUpInCA

    Conservatives are not necessarily stupid, but most stupid people are conservatives. John Stuart Mill

    by Micheline on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 06:22:28 PM PDT

  •  PPP tweeted (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gooserock, belzaboo, janderso, FiredUpInCA

    that Ohio "looks pretty darn close" on their first night of polling.  Ugh.

  •  ppp just reported that OH is very close, (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gooserock, belzaboo

    Results tomorrow. They also say vp debate was a draw in swings.

  •  Cherry picking polls? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Micheline, belzaboo

    This is reality-based?

    ‎"Masculinity is not something given to you, but something you gain. And you gain it by winning small battles with honor." - Norman Mailer
    My Blog
    My wife's woodblock prints

    by maxomai on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 06:25:27 PM PDT

  •  I agree, I think it is too soon for panic and I am (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    PALiberal1, live1, alkatt, FiredUpInCA

    shocked that it seems more people are in a panic than were in a panic earlier this week. I thought this week when the polling got close, more would panic them. Today it seems a whole new panic has started because of polls taken before the Debate with Joe last night.

    I may be put too much emphasis on this but that abortion issue and some other things Joe mentioned and scored big points on might win back some of the squishy middle, particularly women, we may have lost in the last week.

    Heads up, a panic may start because of Tweets from PPP that polling in Ohio has tightened up and it is very very close. I saw some panic on another thread.

    I expected a close election and there is still time to move numbers.

    Now if it is Halloween or November 1st and the polls look bad and Nate says Obama has less than a 5O pct chance of winning, then I will say we are in big trouble and probably won;t win.

    Anyone else with me , that now is the time to double down on GOTV and phone banking and going to the nearest OFA office and volunteering..rather than just panic 3 weeks out?

    Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

    by wishingwell on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 06:27:03 PM PDT

    •  As I mentioned above, (4+ / 0-)

      PPP was O+4 two weeks ago. So close to a tie after Obama's roughest patch of the entire cycle doesn't seem like much of a stretch. In fact, it seems almost to be expected.

    •  Ohio is close, probably (6+ / 0-)

      But it isn't a "Toss Up". Even if it's within 2-3 points, Obama has a distinct advantage there due to the fact that he's still ahead in the worst phase of his campaign, and his ground game and banked early votes.

      •  But the Voter Suppression is Serious Here, There's (0+ / 0-)

        still no non-working-hours early voting unlike 2008, and they've got Obama last on the ballot underneath quite a few indy/3rd party candidates with Mitt on top. Plus they've changed and eliminated many precincts in blue zones and they're shorting voting machines.

        If Obama's +1 on election day the state will be called early for Mitt.

        We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

        by Gooserock on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 06:40:21 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Kos says the ballots differ per district though (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          HudsonValleyMark

          and not the same through the entire state.  

          Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

          by wishingwell on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 07:51:33 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  a bold prediction (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wishingwell, bridav58, Arnie

          The situation you describe doesn't sound materially worse than 2004, and that year Bush's margin in Ohio was about the same as the pre-election polling.

          In important respects, the situation seems materially better than in 2004. Some of the worst machines have been replaced, and lots of people are voting early or absentee. Ohio has ballot rotation; I think you will find that in most precincts Obama is above Romney, not on the bottom.

          I'm guessing that Ohio will have the best election protection operation ever seen -- and I'm guessing that it will have plenty to do. But I don't see how you get to: "If Obama's +1 on election day the state will be called early for Mitt."

          Election protection: there's an app for that!
          Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

          by HudsonValleyMark on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 07:52:07 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  why would Anyone FALL for his lies. beyond me (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell
      •  My husband says a lot of low information voters (0+ / 0-)

        where he works are telling him that they did not pay attention until the last two weeks. Then they said their parents or a friend told them Obama was not born in this country and he is a Moslem. They said they did not know that before. He debunked all of it but some say they believe because their mother would not lie to them or their sister woudl not lie to them.  He tried and tried and it seems they never heard any of these rumors 4 years ago but heard them now. ?  

        He is thinking most leave work and go home to their caves.  He said he expected to run into some undecided  low information who would whine about obamacare or taxes or other such issues we hear about. But he said

        I have a few coworkers who still are undecided because they think Mitt belongs to a cult but they cannot vote for a foreign borh Muslim either.
        He said it is rough..low information is one thing but no information or wrong information and CT types abound  who are also low information.

        Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

        by wishingwell on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 09:24:25 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I mean foreign born, but I recall the days as I (0+ / 0-)

          have been volunteering for Democrats for years where we might have to convince an undecided based on issues like jobs, the economy, taxes,  social security, or such...now he says...

          I never thought I would end up working with undecideds who say they cannot choose between a cult member Mormon and a foreign born Muslim.
          I thought this birther stuff was just Teabauchery that was there but not huge..but some undecideds are saying they believe it or it makes them doubt voting for Obama ..

          I said/..

          Don;t worry, bet they never voted for him, hard to believe they are believing birther stuff now and not 4 years ago enough to change their vote based on birther family members.

          Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

          by wishingwell on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 09:29:14 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  I think that current map is about right. (2+ / 0-)

    Obama has to hold Ohio, and if he doesn't he will need one of

    Colorado
    Virginia
    Florida
    North Carolina..

    replacing Ohio with just Colorado will eek him over the top at 271..that has been the scenario I have been looking at for months.. Ohio going blue was a bit unexpected - obviously Romney has to try to put int in his count, and is spending 5 days there.

  •  Even though the GOP polls may favor Romney, they (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell

    still show trend lines which are important and probably an important component of Nate Silver's secret sauce.  :-)
     

    "We must be the change we wish to see in the world" - Gandhi
    "The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little" – FDR

    by smokey545 on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 06:32:13 PM PDT

  •  I BELEIVE (5+ / 0-)

    election is ripe for stealling. The righties have decided that the easiest way to steal this election is to creat the impression with this astrothuf polls to confuse people and somehow most on the liberalside have bought into this narrative that there was such a wide swing from Obama to Romney based on one debate. One of this polls even had romney winning the AA  vote by 57% I will like to know on what plannet that is likely to happen.

  •  A 70 yr old Democratic friend who has been (16+ / 0-)

    involved in campaigns and even worked for a few for 5o years says it is too early to panic and he thinks some voters have election PTSD of sorts because of 2000, 2004 and even 2010. He said it is because of the losses we suffered that were cruel, bitter, and harsh.  And then what happened in 2000 has scarred a lot of Democrats where panic sets in more quickly than it would for Republicans.

    He said to wait till early this coming week to mid week to see better polling. Granted, he may be very wrong but he is one of these who has studied and beein involved in all of this for half a century. He says I am going to be cheered up and surprised within a week as he feels Romney has peaked..he said there is every reason to believe this will be Mitt;s best week ever..but we still have 3 weeks to go.

    Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

    by wishingwell on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 06:33:38 PM PDT

    •  nice post ! (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      FiredUpInCA, wishingwell, Arnie

      "Four seconds is the longest wait " -Sleater-Kinney

      by delphil on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 06:35:04 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I just talked a fellow liberal off the cliff (4+ / 0-)

      today and basically said what your friend said.  Romney is at a high right now eventually he will lose some of the support he has again and fall back into the position hes been in all year.  I cant believe Obama will go from one week looking at an electoral college landslide to losing over one debate.  That would be completely unprecedented.

    •  Nice one! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell

      I think some sort of "let's buck the fuck up" realisation must have occured post-Oct 3rd and Joe Biden was the first return salvo, he made Ryan look like an inexperienced wanker who is not qualified to be a heartbeat away from power. Also since then Obama has looked good on stump, I sense they recognised the mistakes of last week...

      I'll use a soccer analogy;
      Obama 1 Romney 1 [away goal]
      Ryan 0 Biden 3 [3 awesome away goals]

      "Never trust a man who, when left alone with a tea cosy, doesn't try it on!!"

      by EcosseNJ on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 07:14:41 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  This reminds me of 2004 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Delilah

    I feel like the map is morphing into Bush/Kerry 2004. Obama needs to stop and reverse some of the bleeding this Tuesday.

    If Romney is ahead a point or two come election day, I don't care what the swing state polls say, Obama is done.

    I feel like the campaign is in the trauma unit at the ER and no one can stop the bleeding.

    Sigh...

  •  I like Nate silver (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    PALiberal1, EcosseNJ

    But since he went to the times it strikes me that he is too politically correct with adding all these fraud GOP polls to his numbers.

    •  I agree (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      chrisinNY

      He absolutely hammered ARG for being a shitty firm in 2008, now takes them at face value. Called Rasmussen "biased and inaccurate", now takes them at face value. He actually included a poll that showed Romney up by 15 points in Florida with the electorate as 90% seniors. He takes Gravis, which popped out of thin air around the RNC, at face value. He's even included a George Allen internal poll recently. Seriously Nate?

      •  That is not true... (0+ / 0-)

        And suggests that you haven't really paid attention to Nate's analysis.  Nate does not take wAA, Ras and other GOP polls "at face value" as you say.  He notes how heavily the partisan polls tend to lean one way or another, and compensates according to that bias.  Partisan polls are still useful, if for no other reason than they provide supporting evidence on which direction the numbers are headed and by how much.  But otherwise taking into account their house effect and including them in the model with modifications to account for that seems to be a reasonable system.

        •  But how? (3+ / 0-)

          He doesn't specify. Basically what he should be doing is ignoring the polls that don't have a robust methodology. If a poll includes land lines and cells, then include it. So, include Mason Dixon and Pew (even though they are skewed, etc.)

          But, why include Gravis Marketing or Purple strategies or ARG?

          He's being punked and so is TPM with their stupid banner showing a state as up or down with whatever the latest poll is...

          It probably won't impact his model in the end but it might.

          I like Nate but he's not infalliable.

  •  we are being manipulated (3+ / 0-)

    by right wing polls and cnn, they are panicking dems for sure. look at what we see today after last nights blow out by biden this is crazy. the right wing sticks by their guy and look how msnb did obama after his debate. with 2 debates coming up the key will be for dems to hold the line and get fired up dont let the media paint the debates like they did the first one. msnbc better not take us down they should do the same thing fox is doing for ryan. if we stick by our guy in these next two he will pull even then go 2-3 pts ahead and will pull through in ohio, virginia colorado nevada and we win.  

  •   (0+ / 0-)

    by right wing polls and cnn, they are panicking dems for sure. look at what we see today after last nights blow out by biden this is crazy. the right wing sticks by their guy and look how msnb did obama after his debate. with 2 debates coming up the key will be for dems to hold the line and get fired up dont let the media paint the debates like they did the first one. msnbc better not take us down they should do the same thing fox is doing for ryan. if we stick by our guy in these next two he will pull even then go 2-3 pts ahead and will pull through in ohio, virginia colorado nevada and we win.  

    •  Why just say MSNBC? (0+ / 0-)

      Hell half the rank & file of the Democratic Party,including many here,want to run Obama out on a rail. God I hate to say this but sometimes the GOP is attractive for one(and only one) reason in that they actually back their candidate up.

  •  Just take (7+ / 0-)

    Survey USA Ohio poll. Romney up 1 but in that same poll Obama is only getting 82 percent of African American vote. You would have to go back to Mondale to find the last dem to get that low of African American vote. Just that number is what's causing a 1 point margin for Romney instead of a 1 point margin for Obama.

  •  OMG liberals just duck and cover (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    PALiberal1, wishingwell

    at the first sign of trouble.

    Romney/Caligula 2012!

    by sujigu on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 07:00:22 PM PDT

  •  You know what? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    FiredUpInCA, wishingwell, Micheline

    Nothing's really going to change until after the next debate, so what's the point of freaking out?

    Except for one bad debate (which wasn't that bad) the race remained static all year - why would that change now?

    The Republican Party is now the sworn enemy of the United States of America.

    Listen to All Over The Place - we play all kinds of music!

    by TheGreatLeapForward on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 07:21:18 PM PDT

  •  Obama is narrowly losing. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Micheline

    Get over it everybody. Stop wasting your time quibbling with particular polls using your armchair political science Ph.D. Donate some $$$ or better yet some time to the Obama campaign.

    The day may come, when the rest of the animal creation may acquire those rights which never could have been withholden from them but by the hand of tyranny.

    by Tetris on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 07:30:47 PM PDT

    •  Yes Big Volunteer Weekend for Obama campaign (0+ / 0-)

      go to the nearest OFA office tomorrow or Sunday and offer to canvass, phone bank or sign up to drive voters to the polls or whatever.

      The ground game is  crucial and essential and ultra important and it can make all the difference.

      Obama campaign;s ground game is amazing and much more widespread than Mitts.  We have like 3 x as many OFA offices than MItt...tons more.

      Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

      by wishingwell on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 08:00:07 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Apparently you can't do math (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      librarisingnsf, LaurenMonica, Arnie

      Obama is winning in Ohio. If he wins Ohio, he wins the election. When even the right-wing pollsters show a tie race there, you know Obama is winning.

      •  Obama has to win the next debate (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sreeizzle2012, Arnie

        Period. Biden won, People are talking about Ryan accepting stimulus and imposing his Catholic faith on all Americans That can't be good. for either Romney or Ryan. Biden's performance was not a "game changer" but it may have "stopped the bleeding" Only Obama can turn this around. He has to win - take that back- Not just win but put serious doubt in the minds of Americans about Romney- in other words, prove he is a liar!!

        a long habit of not thinking a thing WRONG, gives it a superficial appearance of being RIGHT, and raises at first a formidable outcry in defense of custom.

        by Jamesleo on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 09:02:56 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Which pollsters did you eliminate? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    PALiberal1

    I would assume Gravis, WeAskAmerica, but what about Rasmussen, Purple Strategies (haven't seen lately)?

    That ARG poll in NH was nasty.  They aren't the most reputable pollster but not really a GOP one.  Outlier?

    •  The ones you said I eliminated (0+ / 0-)

      Purple Strategies has had no recent polls. ARG I eliminated, their track record is awful from 2008 and even RCP didn't start listing them until they started cranking out pro-GOP outliers.

      There were a couple others, off the top of my head, FMW/Baydoun which had a poll showing Romney up 15 in Florida and Susquehanna which is the polling company of the PAGOP.

  •  thx for this - please do this regularly (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    PALiberal1

    The GOP (and outside Super-PAC paid pollsters) are gaming Nate Silver to skew his results.  I prefer to trust an aggregate of established, reputable pollsters, not an aggregate of all pollsters (as Silver uses) since we know some of the pollsters are part of the GOP propaganda cabal.  

    •  Thanks! (0+ / 0-)

      Do I think my projections are a bit rosy? Perhaps. But I'd bet if the election were held today, mine would look a lot closer to reality than the ones that include every GOP poll that Rove cranks out.

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