Well, I haven't written a diary in quite some time-- 3 years or so, in fact. And I hesitate to even write at all, as I have been quite content in the meantime, crawling back into the hidey-hole of lurking and reading without actually interacting. However, it's That Time of Year, and an article I saw today has brought me out of the shadows to once again stick my 2 cents into the world of Kos-- an article about Washington Elite opinion of Barack Obama and his chances in the upcoming election. Specifically, this piece in New York magazine, and what it portends for Nov. 6. Follow me over the Rococo Squiggle for more
Amidst all of the fairly justified handwringing over Mitt Romney's surge to semi-respectability in ten days following the Denver debate, all of the plunging 538 forecasts, the LV screens, the proliferation of polls from (R) outfits piling on the bad news, one specific question has nagged at me: What do the power brokers in Washington actually think about this election? In the seedy underbelly of the Capital itself, the campaign insiders and well-connected ex-congressmen must have some sort of Washington World CW (distinct from the Beltway Press CW.) What do the politicos, who rarely speak candidly on the topic of Obama's 2012 prospects, see as the most likely scenario? Are they planning lobbying strategies for a second Obama term, or are they laying the groundwork for new ties with a Romney administration? Miraculously enough, New York Magazine apparently also had the same question, but unlike me, also had the means to conjure up a decidedly non-scientific but potentially very instructive answer. The link above is mostly in graphic form, so I will quote the introduction:
What does Washington’s political elite really think? Over the past two weeks, we surveyed 74 Beltway insiders—37 Democrats, 37 Republicans—on the election, the state of politics, and what comes next. We wanted honesty, so we offered to keep their answers anonymous (in some cases, they allowed us to quote them). Among the respondents: Romney adviser Eric Fehrnstrom and Obama adman Jim Margolis; Kerry right-hand Bob Shrum and McCain consigliere Mark Salter; former senators Bob Bennett (R-Utah) and Tom Daschle (D-N.D.). On Capitol Hill we found a lot of strong opinions—and even, occasionally, a little consensus.
Sounds intriguing! The results are fascinating and encouraging, and come with a small caveat. I'll get the caveat out of the way immediately: you'll notice the article is published today, October 14. You'll also notice that these politicos were polled "over the last two weeks." This means there's no way to know how many of the responses occurred before Debate #1 (although there is a question, "(candidate)'s biggest mistake this election cycle was . . ." -- and Obama's was overwhelmingly 'Performance in 1st debate,' which suggests that the debate was digested significantly already for this poll.) So, there's a potential grain of salt with which to take this article. But other than that, it's a fairly optimistic picture for Obama and the Democrats amongst the people whose job it is to know these things. Among the findings (you should also read the article!):
82% of respondents think Obama will win
18% think Romney will win
54% think Obama will win by 2+ points
88% think Dems will hold the Senate
46% think Dems will have 52+ seats
51% think Paul Ryan hurts the Rep ticket
41% think Biden hurts the Dem ticket
68% think Obama will keep US/world safer
32% think Romney will keep US/world safer
The "Politirati," as they are termed, are pretty solid on an Obama victory, and pretty bullish on his abilities as well. This is, party ID-wise, an evenly split group as noted above (37R, 37D), and an admittedly small sample size. But I, for one, am encouraged.
The three metrics I have been following most devotedly this election year have been the two major prediction markets (the IEM and Intrade), and of course Nate Silver's 538. At the time of the first debate, all three showed a roughly 5-to-1 advantage for Obama (ranging between 78% and 85% on the straight up winner-take-all election market). After the debate, all three dropped quickly and settled in the last couple days at around 62-38 in favor of Obama. The power of predictive markets, and the fact that these 3 indices all pinpoint Obama as a 5-to-3 favorite even after the Debate Debacle, has kept me from launching fully into full time handwringing. But, as my best friend and ardent Obama supporter has repeatedly sobbed to me, the debate was a big deal, and a steep drop in Obama's chances, as much as I wanted to pretend otherwise. I had the prediction markets to take solace in, but not much else.
This Politirati poll has not only provided interesting insider insight into the opinions of the connected, but it has also given me confidence that the People Who Do This For A Living are pretty convinced that the math is going to add up for a second Obama term. I hope this brings y'all some comfort late on a Sunday night, and maybe we can even have a little discussion about the power of predictive markets and insider opinion.
Cheers,
B o o
1:40 AM PT: Update! Obama now ahead by 5 points in RAND poll-- h/t to bogman who diaried this here: http://www.dailykos.com/...