Everybody here is doing what they can. I am now giving money where I think it matters most. I just want to share my approach.
Analysis:
1. The President will likely reverse the trend. But it is close and he needs our help.
2. The Senate should hold.
3. Unfortunately, the Republicans may still win the House. The Huffington Post projects a slim (first I wrote "slimy") Republican Majority here
4. So I am choosing to give to the President and and to Democratic House candidates who are slightly behind but might win if the President can create some positive momentum.
5. Two Kos portals on Act Blue are a great vehicle for this approach:
Orange to Blue
The Speaker Pelosi Project
I went through those lists (which, for House races are almost the same) and found an estimated margin for each race (from the same Huffington Post article).
Then I chose the candidates who were down, but by no more than 5 points. (Miracles happen, but I don't usually bet on them).
In 2010 my biggest gift was to a guy who won by less than 1%. Random result, but makes me feel good about this approach.
Below the fold are my choices for close House seats.
House Races
Here are my top 7 picks from Orange to Blue and The Speaker Pelosi Project
Maloney isn't on Orange to Blue.
District Candidate Gap
CA 7 Bera ------- 0
CA 10 Hernandez -3
FL 18 Murphy ---- -4
FL 22 Frankel ---- -1
FL 26 Garcia ----- -2
MN 6 Graves ---- -2
NY 18 Maloney -2
Notes
1. Maloney isn't on Orange to Blue.
2. Murphy (FL-18) is running against the reptilian Alan West. (Sorry, lizards).
3. Graves (MN-6) is facing Michelle Bachman.
4. I looked for polls for the Ryan/Zerban race is Wisconsin and Cantor/Powell in Virginia but couldn't find anything. I will maintain a reserve for them, in case they seem close over the next week.
My last minute dollars are going to (a) the President's campaign and (b) close House races where we are slightly behind. If the President can pull forward that just might swing the needle a little more to the D side downticket.