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Former Pennsylvania Governor, Ed Rendell (D) I man I used to respect, recently opened his big mouth and complained that Senator Bob Casey Jr. (D) hasn't been campaigning and that he's only released one ad (which is not true), hence why the polls have tightened between him and Tea Party Tom Smith.  Grant it Casey's been spending more time raising campaign cash (and has been kicking ass and taking names) because Smith, who's net worth is between $60-70 million has been funding his own campaign.  PPP and the Philadelphia Inquirer showed Casey with a double digit lead.  A lot of other polls have showed the race tightening but according to the Casey's internal polling conducted by Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group has Casey beating Smith by 13 points:

The survey, conducted for Casey's campaign by Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, shows the senator with 52 percent support to Smith's 39 percent.

Casey has been heavily favored in the race, but a number of recent polls have indicated that the contest has tightened, helped by the $17 million of personal wealth Smith is putting behind his bid. A Quinnipiac poll earlier this week showed a dead heat, with Casey beating Smith just 48 percent to 45 percent, and a Muhlenberg College/Allentown Morning Call poll put Casey's lead at just 41 percent to 39 percent.

A polling memo indicates that Casey has a 47 percent to 35 percent advantage among independent voters, and that he is winning white voters by five points (though it does not provide specific numbers).

The Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group poll surveyed 604 likely voters from Oct. 15-17, and has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4 percentage points. - National Journal, 10/19/12

I've always believed that Casey would win this race but I was worried that Tea Party Tom Smith's self-funded campaign would cause a headache.  And of course the GOP owned Susquehanna poll that came out today shows Smith and Romney ahead but they are oversampling republican polls and basing their methodology on voter turnout in PA reflecting more like 2004 than 2008:
Methodology

There are two major ways to poll. The first is to conduct surveys in relative proportion to population demographics like age, geography, race, gender, etc. Then, when all that matches the population at large, let respondents give their own party identification.

The second is to include quotas for party ID along with other demographic information. Those party quotas are based on turnout estimates.

SP&R’s pollster James Lee has explained that his firm uses a turnout model based on 2004, when George W. Bush came within 2.5 points of beating John Kerry in Pa.

In this poll, 48 percent of respondents identified as Republicans and 42 percent as Democrats.

However, even if you believe that SP&R is slanted toward the right (and many people do, as their polls have consistently shown Romney doing better in Pa. than other contemporary polls have), SP&R’s trend line is clear.

Here’s a look at the firm’s recent polls for President.

Oct. 4-6: Obama 47, Romney 45
Sept. 18-20: Obama 47, Romney 45
Sept. 15-17: Obama 48, Romney 47
July 19-23: Obama 46, Romney 43

And here’s a look at their recent polls for U.S. Senate:

Oct. 4-6: Casey 46, Smith 44
Sept. 18-20: Casey 46, Smith 41
Sept. 15-17: Casey 45, Smith 42
- Politics PA, 10/19/12

Casey is and has taken Smith seriously and he's upping the ante now more than ever.  Casey has been endorsed by the AFL-CIO, League Of Conservation Voters, the Philadelphia Inquirer and Pittsburgh Tribune-Review for his continued hard work to help Pennsylvania's economy, middle-class, veterans, small businesses, organized labor and environment.  Tea Party Tom Smith has been endorsed by FreedomWorks and the Tea Party Express and supports tax breaks for himself and his fellow millionaires and billionaires and favors dismantling medicare and Social Security.  Help keep the momentum on Casey's side:


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Originally posted to pdc on Fri Oct 19, 2012 at 11:30 AM PDT.

Also republished by DKos Pennsylvania.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Not surprising (4+ / 0-)

    Tom Smith is a tea-party stooge with no credibility except for his rural accent.  And you're right, Casey lagged in ads but has certainly been running plenty (and more than one, duh), lately.

    "Believe nothing, no matter where you read it, or who said it... unless it agrees with your own reason and your own common sense." -The Buddha

    by Brian A on Fri Oct 19, 2012 at 11:41:45 AM PDT

  •  As I understand it... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    poopdogcomedy, marina, Omahan

    a candidate releases internal polling when it will help them by showing they are ahead. So I believe these Casey numbers. No internal polling numbers from Smith because his numbers are not so good.
    Been looking forward to your post on this and I have been rewarded for the wait. You can take the man out of PA but you can't take PA out of the man.
    I sending Bob some money, it sounds like he needs it. Keep it up PDC (for some reason I find it hard to type poopdogcomedy).

    What are their names and on what street do they live-David Crosby-"If I Could Only Remember My Name"

    by IB JOHN on Fri Oct 19, 2012 at 12:00:51 PM PDT

  •  I'm in PA now, and have been impressed with (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Iseeurfuture, marina

    Senator Casey's wobbling tea-cup castigating "Tea Party Tom Smith" as not our cup of tea.  

    The ad points out Tom Smith formed one of the first Tea Parties here.  

    I was pleased that association with such an extreme ideology could be used to marginalize someone, and suspect is a clue that we may have reached a high water mark in Tea Party zealotry.

    My understanding is that Elizabeth Warren is achieving similar success in labeling Scott Brown.  

    Perhaps, this is approach only works in strong blue states but here's to hoping that the "stain" of such affiliation spreads.  

    Let's work to make it so for future elections and maybe wiser politicians will moderate and think twice before embracing the cult of Teapartyism.

    The means is the ends in the process of becoming. - Mahatma Gandhi

    by HoundDog on Fri Oct 19, 2012 at 12:02:00 PM PDT

  •  Every where I go (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    marina

    where I live I see nothing but Tom Smith signs and Romney/Ryan signs. The entire 422 strip is planted with these signs along with " 16 Trillion Dollars in Debt. Nothing out of the ordinary I suppose since in 2008 it was the same for McCain/Palin.  

  •  Thanks for all the great comments you guys! I (0+ / 0-)

    have some news too!  Senator Casey has endorsed Kathy Boockvar in PA's 18th!  I will be releasing a diary on that race soon and i will be writing a diary about if Mark Mellman, who accurately polled Senator Harry Reid's victory in 2010 will score again with Shelley Berkley in 2012.

  •  nothing to worry about with Casey (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    poopdogcomedy, marina, bosdcla14

    i voted already absentee so he's got my vote there.

    There is no chance that Casey loses this even if the poles make it somewhat close.  There is a wall that Tom Smith can not breach.

    His father was a very popular PA Gov, Bob Casey Sr. and the Casey name still carries a lot of weight in PA.  Many registered Republicans who like to split ticket will vote Romney and Casey.

    It is not that hard to for a democrat to win state wide elections here, and especially when they have that name recognition and incumbency.

    This is the guy that destroyed Santorum by 18 points in 2006 too.

  •  Let's remember this about Gov. Cheesesteak: (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    poopdogcomedy, marina

    As late as October 2008, Ed Rendell was complaining that the Obama campaign was ignoring Pennsylvania.

    Oh, and during the 2008 primaries, Rendell insisted that Obama would never win PA in the general election.

    I remember it as though it were yesterday: I was standing in between my living room and dining room at 8:00:01 p.m. when the networks called PA for Obama. I relayed this information to my guests, and we all cheered, knowing then that it was only a matter of time.

    Obama won PA in 2008 by 11 points.

    Yes, it will be closer this time around -- I'm guessing around 6 points -- and maybe it will take the networks till 8:10 to call it.

    And Sen. Casey will win by about 8 points.

    Rendell, along with Chris Matthews, still pretend that it's 1956 and that the most important voter in the country is some white guy in Scranton with a lunch pail, as Matthews has said ad nauseum in his career.

    The world has changed, and Rendell will be wrong once again.

    How about I believe in the unlucky ones?

    by BenderRodriguez on Fri Oct 19, 2012 at 12:28:01 PM PDT

  •  Republicans knew Casey was unassailable (0+ / 0-)

    That's why they didn't put the hammer down to make sure the GOP slot went to a credible candidate.  They let Smith, a nobody with a lot of money, get his jollies.

    Romney '12: Berlusconi without the sex and alcohol!

    by Rich in PA on Fri Oct 19, 2012 at 12:33:58 PM PDT

  •  I would be shocked if Casey lost (0+ / 0-)

    He's not my favorite pol, but if you were to design a guy that appeals to a lot of those Reagan Democrat types, you'd be looking at Bob Casey.

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