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Hey Worrywarts...

Don't worry be happy. I know PPP might have cost some of us some sleep with the Ohio, IA and NH numbers (it did me) but not to worry. Why?

Well, because the fundamentals of the election right now favor our team.

1) O's lead is improving in most of the models and the basic structure of the race hasn't changed. Obama has a persistent and modest lead in several key states (which means he has a strong lead overall). As Silver says, small leads late in Oct are very significant. And, as Sam Wang shows, on the aggregate the President's numbers have been rising since the last debate.  In other words, the numbers say the President got a bounce from debate 2.

It's important to remember that TPM, 538 are great sites dependent on advertising. They all have integrity, yes, but need to generate traffic. The horserace is their biz and changes in the lead are good for business.

If you think about it, the underlying determinate measure of the election- voters' preferences - are not that volatile. There are not that many undecideds, particularly at this stage of the election (and particularly in places like Ohio where voters have been saturated with info). People are not in political crisis over their votes - saying today "I'm for Obama" and then tomorrow "I'm for Romney" for no reason.

2) The end of game storyline, newscycle is favoring Obama. Despite efforts bv Chuck Todd to tout a late Romney surge, there is no real rationale for it other than Romney's advertising spend  which is unlikely at this late stage to dramatically impact voter preference. I'm an old marketing hand and my read is that voters in swing states have seen tons of ads (and media) on the candidates and one more ad is not going to change preference at this point. Everyone has been "reached" and unless the story/products change dramatically, another ad is very unlikely to change things. I am highly skeptical, therefore that 10% of female voters suddenly swung to Romney because of something he said well into a very boring debate.

Anyway, to my point(!) Obama is winning the newscycle with Romnesia, news that supports the admins' handlling of Benghazi, etc. What does Romney have except the horserace and there is no new news there -- it has always been characterized as a toss up.   Really, the story that is emerging is the President hitting his stride. The media is resisting it but they are going to have to report soon (especially as, if he does remain the favorite, they will need to revert to the mean at some point so they can claim/retain some predictive power).

3) Obama's team is better. They've set up the election very well and have a ground game advantage in most of the swing states over Romney. You could argue that - at this point in the election - GOTV is much more important that ad power.

They only thing that worries me is voter enthusiasm advantage (maybe Gallup is right) but that really doesn't hold up if you think about it. The motivated voters are the Tea Party folks and they are by no means a majority (old white men).

Of course, things are never certain and we should all work our asses off(!) but I  for one plan to let the media (which unfortunately includes great places like TPM and 538) carry on doing the "up and downs" without carrying me along for the ride.  I'm too old for that (just like I am for the playground merry go round my son like to go on really fast - that shit makes me dizzy).

GOTV and Peace.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Ugh...TPM/538 are not CNN (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    slinkerwink, Delilah, Steve Canella
    It's important to remember that TPM, 538 are great sites dependent on advertising. They all have integrity, yes, but need to generate traffic. The horserace is their biz and changes in the lead are good for business.
    Stop writing nonsense.
    •  OK (4+ / 0-)

      Thanks for the note! Sheesh. And, yes they are, 538 is the NYT. And, TPM is a for profit company that depends on ad sales.

      So, how are they different? Explain please (without the Fox News put down stuff).

      •  TPM doesn't make money (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gramofsam1, slinkerwink, Delilah

        by creating a horse race. They attract viewers based on their stories being right. Not every media audience seeks excitement as its first priority. TPM relies on advertising to pay its bills, but their business is journalism, not sensationalism. Anybody here who has read the site (or 538) over the years knows that your claim that they are exaggerating the closeness of this race is just silly.

        •  Just silly, nonsense? (0+ / 0-)

          No, they attract viewers by having interesting stories. Don't get me wrong, I like both and read them regularly (and have read them for years). But, yes, they both can be sensationalistic at times.

          Anyway, stop being silly yourself, doc2. You're better than that. I know you can actually make an argument with facts, data and don't have to resort to, as my son would say "NAMES."

          •  What "facts and data" did you (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            slinkerwink

            produce to support your claim that those sites are intentionally promoting a horse race? It was something you just made up. Since you made it up, I don't know why you seem so offended by somebody saying that it is silly.

            •  well (5+ / 0-)

              that they depend on advertising and want clicks. I don't know why you find the idea that they like new news and clicks so offensive. They have integrity but seek to put up stories that get attention (within limits).

              So, I don't think I made this up (that they sell advertising and need clicks). And, if you read TPM enough, you'll see that they often get criticized by others for click bait behavior. Here's just one example (see comments). It happens alot. And here's Sam Wang's take on 538 which I share.  Read through the comments and you get the idea.

              Anyway, I am also talking about CNN, etc. I did not write this pile on TPM, 538 (I like 'em"). But it is important to realize that they are businesses first and not netizens.

              So there you go. Please share your links, facts, reasoning to support your POV. Thanks.

        •  If you don't think that TPM hasnt sensationalized (4+ / 0-)

          The horse race, you really have  blinders on. That dOesnt make them CNN but they do gleefully report any Romney 1 point lead on any state as a "Romney surges ahead" story

  •  Well said (7+ / 0-)

    They're playing us, both directions, and literally driving the entire country crazy.

    Let me ad:

    Unemployment in Ohio DROPPED to 7%.

    Gas prices are cascading downward.

    We just won a trade battle with China over steel that helps Ohio and Pennsylvania.

    Also, in Ohio, Obama is way up with those who have already voted, but Romney leads with those yet to vote, and the aggregate, according to the pollsters, gives Obama a very slight edge.

    Think about that.

    Romney has to over-perform a shrinking pool to make up what Obama has already accomplished.

    Going to be close, always was going to be (I don't buy that debate 1 did much more than give the people who were going to vote against Obama anyway the call to start chest-thumping, honestly), but I'd rather be in Obama's position right now than Romney's, no question.

    I can't even imagine how many of the folks here would be if the situation was reversed...with Romney leading in Ohio and Virginia tightening toward Romney, Romney winning solidly in Nevade, leading in Iowa and Wisconsin...you get the point.

  •  I think some nervousness is appropriate (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Canella

    We have a superior ground game, but they also have institutionalized vote suppression. That may even all that out.

    This is a horse race. Wish it weren't a nail biter but we probably need to admit that it is. We're ahead by a nose at this point.

    Rick Perry - the greatest scientist since Galileo!

    by Bobs Telecaster on Sun Oct 21, 2012 at 07:20:02 AM PDT

  •  The problem is democrats have always been subject (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Canella

    To having more apathetic voters. Everytime the media keeps saying Romney is surgin an its a tossup only boldens the republicans more and are more likely to vote. Plus we've had a few races where we should use won but didn't ex gore and Kerry.

    We keep holding on the the swing states but if its true tht Romney is surgining and maybe Gallup is seeking something no one isn't then we should be concerned that he might surge with undecideds on Election Day. Or they will just steal it.

    What I don't get is how Obama can be up in RV and swing states but tie in LV?

    "I'm not mad at them (tea party) for being loud, I'm mad at us for being silent for the last two years. Where have we been"? "it was never yes HE can, it was Yes WE can". - Van Jones

    by sillycilla on Sun Oct 21, 2012 at 07:38:48 AM PDT

  •  In 1968 I registered and voted Republican… (4+ / 0-)

    but since about six months later have voted Democrat. "Fool me once……" The reason I didn't change my registration to Dem. (until in a fit of disgust when "W" won a second term) was my unwillingness to be counted among the liberal whiners, hand wringers and chicken littles. When I did switch, I came home and told my wife that I was officially a "weenie now." Before then I just called myself a liberal Republican and avoided the shame and embarrassment I now feel as I watch, read and listen. It won't change, it has always been this way. Arrrgh!
         But I wonder how much more success we would have with the masses if, after a certain date in election years, everyone simply, at the blowing of a game starting whistle, STFU with the trembling and became part of a team, marching unit, army, whatever you want to call it – or even "campaign." In a team sport, the minute you walk out on that field or court, the only way you win is to leave all the rest of the shit in the locker room, think positive, play positive, be united – for fear of, among other things, feeding the confidence and team spirit of the other side, let alone win them fans. How the hell is it any different here.
         Oh well, just a fantasy.

    I'm voting for the UPPITY ONE

    by qua on Sun Oct 21, 2012 at 07:43:07 AM PDT

  •  there are legit reasons to be (0+ / 0-)

    worried. there are legit reasons to not panic, but the idea that this is something that romney can't win is just plain wrong imo.

  •  I WON !!! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Arnie, Steve Canella

    Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Nevada....

    Until someone...anyone can tell me how Romney wins just one of these states.... I don't want to hear anything.  Obama wins.  End of story.

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