Today's NBC poll confirmed what we already know based on the large volume of polling data available:
This race is essentially tied at the national level. In fact the Pollster/RCP/538 ... national vote projection indicated as much before this poll.
This provides some degree of good news for both campaigns:
First for Mitt:
1) Assuming undecided voters break for the challenger, he is in a good position to win the popular vote
2) He can still claim the "Momentum" in the race
Next for the President:
1) Most of the upside with this poll is with the President. The RV/LV spread is so large (5 points) that the President's job is much easier. He simply needs to motivate his base to turnout at higher rates than this poll indicates. Put another way, if Romney wins the remaining undecided by a 60/40 split (which is difficult in a tight/competitive race), the President negates this by reducing the RV/LV spread by 1 point.
2) The President's GOTV operation is second to none - perhaps the best in the history of Democratic politics. We are already seeing this with early voting. Republicans counter that their's is much improved this year as well, which I have no doubt. But if polling is accurate regarding RV/LV spreads, their potential upside is much more limited!
But Most Importantly for the President:
This race is not a national race, but will be decided in 8 battleground states. The President still holds a lead of at least 2 -3 points in the states needed to get him to 270 EV's (Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada, Iowa, NH). Plus, he is tied in two other states that would add some cushion (Colorado, Virginia). It is looking increasingly likely that Governor Romney will have to win the popular vote by more than 1% (and perhaps more than 2%) to dislodge the President's advantage in the Electoral College!
This race is close but we remain ahead!