So, where are we at ? below the squiggle .
The short version: We are doing pretty well. We are very, very likely to win the Presidency and retain the US Senate. We will make some progress in the US House of Representatives. How much remains to be seen. In the final analysis, this will depend upon getting out the vote. If we get out the vote, we win. If we don't, we lose.
Longer version: Which year does it look like ? It certainly does not look like 2010. Too bad Republicans. And if we were to just choose between 2008 and 2010, then we would certainly choose 2008 as the year that this is most like. However, this does not look that much like 2008. States that normally were close went for us by a healthy margin. States broke for our party for the first time in decade(s). However, it appears to me, that this race looks more like 2004 than 2008. In the 2008 election, voters immediately saw and felt the impact of republican economic policies. They saw an economy in free fall. This pushed voters towards us. Unfortunately, many voters are not well informed. Therefore, after four years, lacking context, they are more willing to regress to the same failed policies that brought us the economic collapse in the first place.
Willard did what he needed to in order to bring republicans and republican leaning independents home. The President stopped the bleeding in the second debate. For this race to become competitive, willard simply had to bring republicans and republican leaning independents back to his fold. That happened. So, we are now seeing a close race.
On the President's agenda, he must not lose ground due to the final debate. That debate is on Tuesday. The candidates will debate foreign policy. Our job is to make sure that, regardless of how the debate goes, we get our voters to the polls. We are not electing a debater in chief. We are electing the President of the United States.
New Hampshire is closer than we would like. Nevertheless, it is hard to imagine Willard winning here. The state fundamentals are very much in our favor. So, even though the polls are close here (with willard ahead in one survey by PPP), we will win New Hampshire. The President is not campaigning here for a reason.
Iowa is closer than 2008. However, we are still up several points according to the composite at Huffington Post Pollster.12 NBC/Marist gave us an 8 point lead there a couple of days ago . PPP again showed willard up. However, neither candidate is campaigning there for a reason. That state is going to stay D.
Nevada is holding strong. All pollsters show President Obama with a lead (between 3 and 8 points).
Colorado is coming back to us. We are ahead in Colorado by a couple of points. Other than the We Ask America poll, we are up in every other recent poll in Colorado. We also have a modest edge in the state fundamentals.
Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan are solidly for President Obama. Therefore, we note here that if we win the above states, then we win the electoral college regardless of what happens to the remaining states. In other words, willard could win every single other swing state not yet mentioned and still lose the electoral college.
States that remain to be considered: Ohio, Virginia, Florida, and North Carolina.
In Ohio, we remain ahead by a small but stable amount according to recent public polls. Moreover, the internal polls of both campaigns show that President Obama is up 4 to 7 points in Ohio. It is almost considered likely Obama. That means that willard is in deep, deep trouble. Even had he won Ohio, he was likely to lose the election. Now, he has to make up the electoral college votes of Ohio and win one of the above states. Plus, he must win every other swing state.
Virginia is now a toss up. The President is campaigning here. He is successfully using his "Romnesia" line to make sure that women voters (55% of the voters in Virginia) don't forget willard's real policies with regards to women. Apparently, the President saw falling numbers with Virginia women. However, those numbers are rebounding. If I were a bettor, I would certainly lay my money on President Obama winning Virginia.
Florida is now more reddish on Nate's map. That appears to be due to two factors: the national polls and the Rasmussen poll. If we remove the Rasmussen poll, the last four polls have Florida completely even (SUSA, CNN, Grove, and Fox). Again, if I were betting, I would bet big on our ground game.
North Carolina is the swing state that is the hardest for us to win. The polls seem to coalesce around a 2 to 3 point lead for willard. We are definitely underdogs here, but with our organizational advantage, we may pull it out.
Bottom line: If we get out the vote, we will win.