If there's one thing we know for sure about pollsters, they have trouble getting to the bottom of who is going to vote and who isn't.
Registered voters lie to pollsters all the time. But when they hang up the phone and head to their computer, their searches reveal the (sometimes ugly) truth of how voters intend to act.
So says the article "Google's Crystal Ball" in today's New York Times.
Seth Stephens-Davidowitz is an economist who uses Google search volume to research consumer intent. The same methods may give us insights into voters:
In my work in economics, I use anonymous, aggregate data from millions of Google searches in hundreds of media markets in the United States to measure variables on sensitive topics — racism, drug dealing and child abuse, for example — where people tend to be less forthcoming in surveys (to put it mildly).
My research suggests that by comparing Google search rates for voting information so far this year with search rates on comparable dates from previous elections, we might already be able to get a pretty good idea of the composition of the 2012 electorate.
There are plenty of specific and interesting data points in the article, about regions and demographics, and whether their search patterns more resemble 2004 or 2008. (Some hints... African-Americans and Mormons are energized. Youth and senior age groups look like 2008. America has a disturbing number of disturbed and racist citizens.) You should go read it, but here's the money quote:
Mr. Obama’s opponents hope that the 2012 electorate will be less favorable to Democrats, more like the 2004 electorate. My early analysis of Google search data says: don’t count on it.