As of 4AM ET, Obama's standing in the RAND American Life Panel is now 49.19% to Romney's 45.34%. That's almost a 2 point shift (1.95 points) over the course of a single day. Since RAND has been running this election forecast (July 11th), that's the second largest single day shift towards Obama. The largest shift toward Obama was from the 6th to the 7th of September, the day after the DNC ended, where Obama gained 2.42 points. The third largest shift was from the 16th to the 17th of October, after the town hall debate at Hofstra University, where Obama gained.
A couple things about these bumps. First of all, I think we can all agree that RAND was ahead of the curve on the post-convention shift. RAND for the month after the convention generally reflected most conventional polling in showing a rise in support for Obama. The shift following the second debate, however, was short-lived. By the time of the third debate, Obama's numbers had regressed right back to their lowest point after the first debate. Now, given the partisan nature of the electorate and the minimal remaining undecideds, the cautious approach here would be to assume Obama's numbers will regress the way they did after the second debate. However, there are some key numbers in some of RAND's other graphs that lead me to believe this is a more significant movement toward Obama. Follow me past the jump as I explain...
Election Forecast
10/23: Obama 49.19% - Romney 45.34% (Obama +3.85)
10/22: Obama 48.26% - Romney 46.36% (Obama +1.9)
The above election forecast graph obviously illustrates the shift toward Obama that I mentioned. Given the fact that RAND correctly noted the tightened nature of the race before the conventions, correctly registered Obama's surge after the conventions, and correctly registered the retightening after the first debate, I'm inclined to believe that what I'm seeing is sound and will soon be reflected in conventional polls.
Now, there are two criticisms one could take of this view. The first is that RAND is a seven-day tracker, with 500 of its 3500 panel members being contacted each day, so a significant shift wouldn't be evident immediately. My response to this is to point out two past trends; the shift after the convention, and the shift after the first debate. Both began immediately, and then continued, so RAND is able to register quick changes. I'm not exactly sure how RAND weights each day in its seven-day average, but I'm certain that all days aren't given equal weight due to the rapidness with which RAND is able to record shifts. The second criticism is that the tracker shifted toward Obama after the second debate, and that dissipated quickly. My response to this is that there are two more key numbers in the tracker that shifted toward Obama---numbers that haven't shifted this way since after the convention.
Shifts Between Candidates
10/23: Romney to Obama 1.36% - Obama to Romney 0.96% (Obama +.40)
10/22: Romney to Obama 1.31% - Obama to Romney 1.02% (Obama +.29)
This is the first key number, which registers how members of the panel change their minds. As RAND points out, it tends to be rather noisy, but it also tends to coincide with important trends. With the last update of the tracker, 1.36% of the panel has shifted toward Obama, while 0.96% of the panel has shifted toward Romney. This trend actually began on the 21st, and it's continuing as older days drop off the other end. This is important for two reasons. First of all, this shift wasn't present after the second debate---although, it arguably began there and is slowly growing. Second, Romney has led in shifts between candidates from the 1st to the 20th, so Obama hasn't led here since September 30th. In fact, the only sustained lead Obama had here was from the 7th to the 30th of September, corresponding with his post-convention gains.
Intention to Vote
10/23: Romney supporters 86.09% - Obama supporters 82.06% (Romney +4.03)
10/22: Romney supporters 88.22% - Obama supporters 82.35% (Romney +5.87)
This is the second key number, which basically registers enthusiasm among Romney and Obama supporters. RAND asks its panel the percentage chance they will vote, and weights the election forecast accordingly. Currently, Romney supporters lead with an 86.09% likelikood of voting, while Obama supporters register an 82.06% likelihood of voting. Now, I'll just admit now that this is the indicator I understand the least. It seems counterintuitive, registering sharp drops for Romney supporters after the RNC and for Obama supporters after the DNC, and registering a surge in Romney support after the second debate (pity over how badly Romney was battered, maybe). It may be that it has an inverse relationship to the other indicators, with supporters lowering their likelihood of voting if news is good and increasing their likelihood of voting if their candidate is in trouble---although I've never bought into that line of thought.
One thing, though, is that Romney has consistently led for the duration of the tracker. This is consistent with the slightly higher level of enthusiasm among Republicans, and comports with the RV/LV gaps we've been seeing in many polls. However, with the last update, Romney just received his largest single day drop in intention to vote in the duration of the tracker, going from 88.22% to 86.09%. This is a 2.13 point shift, exceeding Romney's 1.83 point shift down from the 1st to the 2nd of September---a data point I'm admittedly hard-pressed to explain. Obama supporters are at 82.06%, which is a slight downtick from 82.35% the previous day, but this is a net gain of 1.84% in enthusiasm since Romney's loss exceeded Obama's.
Now, one could think of a number of reasons why Romney suffered this drop. Temporarily shifting to the left on foreign policy while cameras were pointed at him on the 22nd may have something to do with it, as embodied by Glenn Beck's tweet on the subject. Generally getting his ass handed to him in the same event my also play a factor, as conservatives are wringing their hands about Romney being weak in the same way progressives were after the first debate. In any case, enthusiasm didn't shift to this degree after any of the debates or the conventions, so it may be significant.
All of this is obviously going to depend on what traditional polling tells us in the coming week. Even moreso, it's going to depend on what RAND says tomorrow morning as well. Because of the quality of the tracker so far, I'm inclined to believe that a continuation of this trend tomorrow will signal a shift in the race.