Tom Kludt of TPM posts an article today, reminding us of Harry Reid's 2010 upset, and how Nevada can be hell to poll accurately (Hint: Nate Silver only got two of 36 senate seats wrong, and NV was one of them).
Nate Silver says Nevada is second only to Ohio on his "Return of Investment Index"
And Nate currently shows Nevada thusly:
But in 2010:
In the dying embers of the 2010 midterms, the Senate majority leader appeared to be on the ropes. Polls from a variety of well-known outlets showed tea party champion Sharron Angle leading him in the final weeks of the U.S. Senate race in Nevada. No less of an authority than Nate Silver, who correctly predicted 34 of the 36 Senate races that year, pegged Angle as the favorite in his final forecast.
But on Election Day, the Nevada polls were proven wrong. Reid defeated Angle by nearly 6 points, powered by his labor-led field organization and the state’s increasingly diverse electorate.
From BEHIND, to WINNING by SIX POINTS ALL because of
GOTV!!
But Republican pollster David Flaherty said Reid’s ground game was the difference in 2010. Over the course of his long career, Reid, with the assistance of the influential Las Vegas culinary unions, has built an extremely effective “get out the vote” operation. Many Reid supporters who had already cast their ballots for the longtime senator before Election Day were excluded from various pollsters’ likely voter models. Flaherty said the outcome of this year’s presidential race may hinge on whether that grassroots apparatus can deliver for Obama.
“I’m curious to see if Democrats can do the same thing for Obama that they did for Harry Reid in 2010,” Flaherty told TPM. “Can Harry Reid’s invincible machine get it done again? That’s what we’re waiting to see.”
There may already be evidence that it is paying dividends for the president. As of Tuesday, Nevada Democrats had turned in more than 60,000 early ballots while Republicans had turned in about 44,000.
And this all happened in a REPUBLICAN winning year!!!
Worried about polls? Then get off your ass and MAKE them wrong!!
See THIS DIARY for how to work for Obama in YOUR nearest swing state!
Make Mitt look like this AGAIN!!!