I had an epiphany that I think other Kossacks will share.
Romney won't win -- though it will be close -- because the Republican brand has lost its edge on the issues that they used to own: the economy and foreign policy/defense.
More below the orange squiggle of love....
The Bush years, and their disastrous stewardship of the economy, robbed Republicans of their image as the pro-economic growth party. Voters understand that the recovery has been slow because we were in the deepest recession since the Great Depression. And, since Romney/Ryan refuse to give details about how their economic plan will work, they have failed to re-establish confidence in their economic policy. Even The Economist says so!
On foreign policy, the Iraq war debacle, and longest-running-war in Afghanistan have truly given voters pause when it comes to Republicans. The fact that Romney has hired all the same foreign policy advisors (Bolton, Senor) does not instill confidence that Romney/Ryan would be any different than Bush/Cheney. Plus, neither Romney or Ryan have foreign policy experience. Add that to the fact that Romney has blown all of his attempts to appear strong on foreign policy (visit to Olympics, Libya charge), and voters have no reason to believe Republicans will do a better job on foreign policy.
In essence, since Obama moved to the Right on foreign policy (not something I agree with, btw), he's robbed conservatives of their signature strength.
For those reasons, Romney is going down on Nov. 6.