Today's projection sees a bit of a boost from some new polling, with TPM and Pollster showing Obama with an average lead of 1.25%. This produces a 3%, 117,388 vote win for Obama when partisan trends in localities, and changes in voter registration are considered.
Full projections for all 135 Virginia localities are below the orange mini-baguette. Please peruse the numbers.
Let me address some questions from earlier projection diaries.
1) Third party voting: this should be a bit elevated this year when compared to 2008, but not the large factor that seemed possible initially according to PPP. The election is too close and the contrast between the main candidates too stark for many people to vote third party. If someone out there has time to put together a Super Pac for Virgil Goode, that might be helpful. He should get close to 3% percent of the vote in his old congressional district, VA-5, but he won't be a statewide factor unless the margin is painfully thin--a few thousand votes.
2) Despite a lot of Republican overconfidence, Obama is still way ahead in absentee ballots. These are going to be Obama's votes by a 3:2 margin. Right now my projection has Obama with a 56,361 votes lead in absentee votes. However, his lead in 2008 was probably larger at this time by about 17,000 votes. The difference is largely due to fewer absentees being cast and a very slight uptick overall in absentees in Republican areas. I can think of a dozen explanations for this, so I don't read too much into it.
3) Yard sign advantage. I don't have hard numbers on this, but everyone from Chuck Todd to Mark Warner (and many Virginia denizens on this site) has brought up the fact that Romney seems to have a lot of signs. I have noticed that the advantage, if there is one, melts away when you get off the main roads. Also. I don't think this is a particular sign of strength. If yard signs could vote or do GOTV Terry Kilgore would have crushed Tim Kaine is the 2006 Gubenatorial race. The opposite happened. I'll take the money spent on ground operations over a few more signs on the roads any day.
COUNTY/CITY |
Obama |
Romney |
Margin |
%Obama |
%Romney |
08Margin |
ACCOMACK
COUNTY |
7578.457 |
8713.675 |
-1135.22 |
45.82% |
52.69% |
-226 |
ALBEMARLE
COUNTY |
32750.28 |
23246.75 |
9503.525 |
57.62% |
40.90% |
9216 |
ALEXANDRIA
CITY |
55469.54 |
21491.77 |
33977.77 |
71.00% |
27.51% |
31292 |
ALLEGHANY
COUNTY |
3302.862 |
3927.77 |
-624.908 |
45.00% |
53.51% |
-162 |
AMELIA
COUNTY |
2455.292 |
4545.549 |
-2090.26 |
34.55% |
63.96% |
-1482 |
AMHERST
COUNTY |
5933.7 |
9564.417 |
-3630.72 |
37.72% |
60.80% |
-2376 |
APPOMATTOX
COUNTY |
2537.733 |
5522.219 |
-2984.49 |
31.02% |
67.50% |
-2262 |
ARLINGTON
COUNTY |
89922.45 |
34770.39 |
55152.06 |
71.04% |
27.47% |
49118 |
AUGUSTA
COUNTY |
9590.702 |
26384.46 |
-16793.8 |
26.26% |
72.25% |
-13295 |
BATH
COUNTY |
933.8042 |
1416.935 |
-483.131 |
39.13% |
59.38% |
-306 |
BEDFORD
CITY |
1135.689 |
1603.534 |
-467.844 |
40.84% |
57.67% |
-289 |
BEDFORD
COUNTY |
10642.15 |
27740.79 |
-17098.6 |
27.31% |
71.20% |
-13403 |
BLAND
COUNTY |
791.5495 |
2292.133 |
-1500.58 |
25.29% |
73.23% |
-1167 |
BOTETOURT
COUNTY |
5308.854 |
12775.87 |
-7467.01 |
28.92% |
69.59% |
-5778 |
BRISTOL
CITY |
2522.569 |
5135.696 |
-2613.13 |
32.45% |
66.06% |
-1914 |
BRUNSWICK
COUNTY |
4801.942 |
2945.438 |
1856.504 |
61.06% |
37.45% |
2096 |
BUCHANAN
COUNTY |
3435.952 |
5065.814 |
-1629.86 |
39.81% |
58.70% |
-478 |
BUCKINGHAM
COUNTY |
3449.586 |
3747.318 |
-297.732 |
47.22% |
51.29% |
61 |
BUENA
VISTA CITY |
1129.808 |
1546.016 |
-416.208 |
41.59% |
56.92% |
-174 |
CAMPBELL
COUNTY |
7669.125 |
19294.08 |
-11625 |
28.02% |
70.49% |
-9353 |
CAROLINE
COUNTY |
7442.695 |
6383.365 |
1059.33 |
53.03% |
45.48% |
1546 |
CARROLL
COUNTY |
3865.809 |
9137.658 |
-5271.85 |
29.29% |
69.23% |
-4078 |
CHARLES
CITY COUNTY |
2760.8 |
1338.961 |
1421.838 |
66.34% |
32.17% |
1550 |
CHARLOTTE
COUNTY |
2440.71 |
3423.542 |
-982.832 |
41.00% |
57.51% |
-667 |
CHARLOTTESVILLE
CITY |
18695.05 |
4779.45 |
13915.6 |
78.46% |
20.06% |
11627 |
CHESAPEAKE
CITY |
53769.3 |
57680.33 |
-3911.03 |
47.53% |
50.98% |
1369 |
CHESTERFIELD
COUNTY |
77399.7 |
96883.82 |
-19484.1 |
43.75% |
54.76% |
-12103 |
CLARKE
COUNTY |
3522.492 |
4344.438 |
-821.946 |
44.11% |
54.40% |
-383 |
COLONIAL
HEIGHTS CITY |
2394.198 |
6567.629 |
-4173.43 |
26.32% |
72.19% |
-3599 |
COVINGTON
CITY |
1221.819 |
1113.239 |
108.5802 |
51.55% |
46.97% |
284 |
CRAIG
COUNTY |
810.7197 |
1905.503 |
-1094.78 |
29.40% |
69.11% |
-818 |
CULPEPER
COUNTY |
9163.374 |
12353.14 |
-3189.77 |
41.95% |
56.56% |
-1909 |
CUMBERLAND
COUNTY |
2205.042 |
2558.786 |
-353.743 |
45.60% |
52.91% |
-163 |
DANVILLE
CITY |
12086.21 |
8202.126 |
3884.087 |
58.69% |
39.83% |
3991 |
DICKENSON
COUNTY |
2849.628 |
3521.925 |
-672.297 |
44.06% |
54.45% |
-46 |
DINWIDDIE
COUNTY |
6201.358 |
7287.024 |
-1085.67 |
45.29% |
53.22% |
-280 |
EMPORIA
CITY |
1741.105 |
949.9119 |
791.1929 |
63.74% |
34.77% |
805 |
ESSEX
COUNTY |
3057.678 |
2662.118 |
395.5597 |
52.66% |
45.85% |
555 |
FAIRFAX
CITY |
6462.394 |
4765.25 |
1697.144 |
56.70% |
41.81% |
1884 |
FAIRFAX
COUNTY |
328524.6 |
219494 |
109030.6 |
59.06% |
39.46% |
109365 |
FALLS
CHURCH CITY |
5263.447 |
2236.791 |
3026.656 |
69.13% |
29.38% |
2725 |
FAUQUIER
COUNTY |
14918.76 |
21769.57 |
-6850.81 |
40.06% |
58.45% |
-4611 |
FLOYD
COUNTY |
2789.713 |
4892.3 |
-2102.59 |
35.77% |
62.74% |
-1504 |
FLUVANNA
COUNTY |
6094.492 |
6797.99 |
-703.498 |
46.57% |
51.94% |
-235 |
FRANKLIN
CITY |
2693.759 |
1606.722 |
1087.037 |
61.71% |
36.81% |
1243 |
FRANKLIN
COUNTY |
9317.981 |
17390.71 |
-8072.73 |
34.37% |
64.14% |
-5796 |
FREDERICK
COUNTY |
13821.24 |
24262.31 |
-10441.1 |
35.75% |
62.76% |
-7188 |
FREDERICKSBURG
CITY |
7790.879 |
4513.372 |
3277.507 |
62.38% |
36.14% |
2742 |
GALAX CITY |
944.5577 |
1389.021 |
-444.463 |
39.87% |
58.64% |
-265 |
GILES
COUNTY |
2929.518 |
4930.19 |
-2000.67 |
36.72% |
61.79% |
-1270 |
GLOUCESTER
COUNTY |
6647.905 |
13627.5 |
-6979.59 |
32.30% |
66.21% |
-5173 |
GOOCHLAND
COUNTY |
4740.24 |
8649.414 |
-3909.17 |
34.88% |
63.64% |
-2830 |
GRAYSON
COUNTY |
2241.428 |
4942.809 |
-2701.38 |
30.74% |
67.78% |
-2060 |
GREENE
COUNTY |
3368.071 |
5917.34 |
-2549.27 |
35.73% |
62.78% |
-1806 |
GREENSVILLE
COUNTY |
2987.923 |
1809.47 |
1178.452 |
61.36% |
37.16% |
1393 |
HALIFAX
COUNTY |
7971.435 |
9100.092 |
-1128.66 |
46.00% |
52.51% |
-474 |
HAMPTON
CITY |
49525.05 |
21923.8 |
27601.25 |
68.28% |
30.23% |
26441 |
HANOVER
COUNTY |
18099.16 |
42106.67 |
-24007.5 |
29.61% |
68.90% |
-18897 |
HARRISONBURG
CITY |
9726.69 |
7127.787 |
2598.903 |
56.85% |
41.66% |
2396 |
HENRICO
COUNTY |
91556.18 |
74119.61 |
17436.57 |
54.44% |
44.07% |
18942 |
HENRY
COUNTY |
10148.13 |
14163.42 |
-4015.29 |
41.12% |
57.39% |
-2640 |
HIGHLAND
COUNTY |
482.6303 |
881.1051 |
-398.475 |
34.86% |
63.65% |
-340 |
HOPEWELL
CITY |
5259.812 |
4297.299 |
962.5133 |
54.22% |
44.30% |
1136 |
ISLE OF
WIGHT COUNTY |
8540.726 |
12846.85 |
-4306.13 |
39.34% |
59.17% |
-2685 |
JAMES CITY
COUNTY |
18197.13 |
24371.1 |
-6173.96 |
42.11% |
56.40% |
-3560 |
KING &
QUEEN COUNTY |
1833.57 |
1895.22 |
-61.6503 |
48.44% |
50.07% |
155 |
KING
GEORGE COUNTY |
4819.241 |
7139.603 |
-2320.36 |
39.70% |
58.81% |
-1415 |
KING
WILLIAM COUNTY |
3334.909 |
5694.437 |
-2359.53 |
36.38% |
62.13% |
-1622 |
LANCASTER
COUNTY |
3026.229 |
3696.294 |
-670.065 |
44.35% |
54.17% |
-412 |
LEE COUNTY |
2834.105 |
6557.452 |
-3723.35 |
29.73% |
68.78% |
-2606 |
LEXINGTON
CITY |
1858.868 |
1162.199 |
696.6686 |
60.61% |
37.90% |
629 |
LOUDOUN
COUNTY |
87325.02 |
78880.47 |
8444.545 |
51.76% |
46.75% |
11509 |
LOUISA
COUNTY |
7108.331 |
9441.095 |
-2332.76 |
42.31% |
56.20% |
-1204 |
LUNENBURG
COUNTY |
2530.296 |
2981.31 |
-451.014 |
45.23% |
53.29% |
-197 |
LYNCHBURG
CITY |
18215.7 |
21832.65 |
-3616.95 |
44.81% |
53.70% |
-1369 |
MADISON
COUNTY |
2739.854 |
4052.323 |
-1312.47 |
39.74% |
58.77% |
-896 |
MANASSAS
CITY |
8460.021 |
6979.955 |
1480.065 |
53.98% |
44.53% |
1543 |
MANASSAS
PARK CITY |
2865.349 |
1964.166 |
901.1822 |
58.45% |
40.07% |
829 |
MARTINSVILLE
CITY |
3972.92 |
2253.926 |
1718.994 |
62.85% |
35.66% |
1828 |
MATHEWS
COUNTY |
1767.833 |
3711.115 |
-1943.28 |
31.79% |
66.73% |
-1522 |
MECKLENBURG
COUNTY |
7004.661 |
8378.12 |
-1373.46 |
44.86% |
53.65% |
-690 |
MIDDLESEX
COUNTY |
2202.479 |
3772.505 |
-1570.03 |
36.31% |
62.20% |
-1154 |
MONTGOMERY
COUNTY |
22615.93 |
22341.63 |
274.304 |
49.56% |
48.96% |
2003 |
NELSON
COUNTY |
4199.092 |
3815.04 |
384.052 |
51.62% |
46.90% |
744 |
NEW KENT
COUNTY |
3615.662 |
7719.558 |
-4103.9 |
31.42% |
67.09% |
-2892 |
NEWPORT
NEWS CITY |
53027.35 |
30015.58 |
23011.77 |
62.91% |
35.61% |
23305 |
NORFOLK
CITY |
64182.38 |
26140.81 |
38041.57 |
70.00% |
28.51% |
38005 |
NORTHAMPTON
COUNTY |
3580.182 |
2791.17 |
789.0121 |
55.36% |
43.16% |
1087 |
NORTHUMBERLAND
COUNTY |
3175.291 |
4307.879 |
-1132.59 |
41.80% |
56.71% |
-729 |
NORTON
CITY |
701.7737 |
846.2625 |
-144.489 |
44.66% |
53.85% |
-1 |
NOTTOWAY
COUNTY |
3198.908 |
3634.833 |
-435.925 |
46.11% |
52.40% |
-86 |
ORANGE
COUNTY |
7115.737 |
9529.513 |
-2413.78 |
42.11% |
56.40% |
-1399 |
PAGE
COUNTY |
3969.391 |
6441.598 |
-2472.21 |
37.56% |
60.95% |
-1806 |
PATRICK
COUNTY |
2699.049 |
6018.533 |
-3319.48 |
30.50% |
68.01% |
-2612 |
PETERSBURG
CITY |
14996.43 |
1673.336 |
13323.1 |
88.62% |
9.89% |
12191 |
PITTSYLVANIA
COUNTY |
10968.73 |
20133.26 |
-9164.53 |
34.74% |
63.77% |
-7315 |
POQUOSON
CITY |
1614.252 |
5736.966 |
-4122.71 |
21.63% |
76.88% |
-3481 |
PORTSMOUTH
CITY |
32389.74 |
14771.21 |
17618.53 |
67.66% |
30.85% |
18343 |
POWHATAN
COUNTY |
4169.026 |
11808.85 |
-7639.83 |
25.70% |
72.81% |
-5851 |
PRINCE
EDWARD COUNTY |
5249.13 |
4557.396 |
691.7339 |
52.73% |
45.78% |
927 |
PRINCE
GEORGE COUNTY |
7212.179 |
9777.214 |
-2565.03 |
41.82% |
56.69% |
-1622 |
PRINCE
WILLIAM COUNTY |
109045.3 |
82629.91 |
26415.34 |
56.04% |
42.47% |
25814 |
PULASKI
COUNTY |
5436.002 |
9630.758 |
-4194.76 |
35.54% |
62.97% |
-2939 |
RADFORD
CITY |
3011.951 |
2727.25 |
284.7015 |
51.70% |
46.81% |
512 |
RAPPAHANNOCK
COUNTY |
2025.454 |
2377.836 |
-352.382 |
45.31% |
53.20% |
-122 |
RICHMOND
CITY |
80298.22 |
20092.15 |
60206.07 |
78.80% |
19.72% |
54974 |
RICHMOND
COUNTY |
1540.498 |
2236.984 |
-696.486 |
40.17% |
58.34% |
-474 |
ROANOKE
CITY |
24914.32 |
16414.84 |
8499.479 |
59.39% |
39.13% |
9540 |
ROANOKE
COUNTY |
18869.77 |
33415.83 |
-14546.1 |
35.55% |
62.96% |
-10759 |
ROCKBRIDGE
COUNTY |
4214.647 |
6397.312 |
-2182.67 |
39.13% |
59.39% |
-1385 |
ROCKINGHAM
COUNTY |
10413.3 |
25669.32 |
-15256 |
28.43% |
70.08% |
-12015 |
RUSSELL
COUNTY |
4553.53 |
7169.963 |
-2616.43 |
38.26% |
60.25% |
-1457 |
SALEM CITY |
4980.612 |
7828.17 |
-2847.56 |
38.31% |
60.21% |
-1924 |
SCOTT
COUNTY |
2384.969 |
7696.63 |
-5311.66 |
23.30% |
75.21% |
-4255 |
SHENANDOAH
COUNTY |
6830.514 |
13542.68 |
-6712.17 |
33.03% |
65.48% |
-5093 |
SMYTH
COUNTY |
3883.144 |
8755.877 |
-4872.73 |
30.27% |
68.25% |
-3578 |
SOUTHAMPTON
COUNTY |
4221.853 |
5111.486 |
-889.632 |
44.56% |
53.95% |
-181 |
SPOTSYLVANIA
COUNTY |
25979.67 |
33056.4 |
-7076.73 |
43.35% |
55.16% |
-3713 |
STAFFORD
COUNTY |
27623.82 |
34556.25 |
-6932.43 |
43.76% |
54.75% |
-3505 |
STAUNTON
CITY |
5768.474 |
5834.709 |
-66.2348 |
48.98% |
49.54% |
239 |
SUFFOLK
CITY |
23382.24 |
18639.51 |
4742.731 |
54.82% |
43.70% |
5281 |
SURRY
COUNTY |
2522.62 |
1748.6 |
774.0195 |
58.18% |
40.33% |
963 |
SUSSEX
COUNTY |
3214.998 |
2109.063 |
1105.935 |
59.49% |
39.02% |
1275 |
TAZEWELL
COUNTY |
4964.681 |
12655.2 |
-7690.52 |
27.76% |
70.76% |
-5605 |
VIRGINIA
BEACH CITY |
98946.26 |
109318.8 |
-10372.5 |
46.80% |
51.71% |
-1434 |
WARREN
COUNTY |
7092.227 |
10156.18 |
-3063.96 |
40.51% |
58.01% |
-1882 |
WASHINGTON
COUNTY |
7608.789 |
18161.86 |
-10553.1 |
29.09% |
69.43% |
-8014 |
WAYNESBORO
CITY |
3803.4 |
5161.799 |
-1358.4 |
41.79% |
56.72% |
-909 |
WESTMORELAND
COUNTY |
4571.244 |
4073.249 |
497.9952 |
52.09% |
46.42% |
858 |
WILLIAMSBURG
CITY |
5762.304 |
3253.571 |
2508.733 |
62.96% |
35.55% |
1975 |
WINCHESTER
CITY |
5201.774 |
4966.275 |
235.499 |
50.40% |
48.12% |
543 |
WISE
COUNTY |
4478.575 |
10201.84 |
-5723.27 |
30.05% |
68.46% |
-3919 |
WYTHE
COUNTY |
3851.527 |
9246.719 |
-5395.19 |
28.97% |
69.54% |
-4100 |
YORK
COUNTY |
13379.12 |
21954.21 |
-8575.1 |
37.30% |
61.21% |
-6133 |
TOTALS |
2049389 |
1932001 |
117388.1 |
50.71% |
47.80% |
234527 |