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    Shortly after walking through the door this evening, I was called on my rarely-used landline by a robo-poll, which identified itself as being from PPP at the end of the call. It wasn't clear what the poll was about at first, but it turned out to be a test of incumbent tea-partier Chip Cravaack vs Rick Nolan. It seemed to some degree that they were looking for some buyer's remorse regarding Nolan, although the most recent polls I've seen have him in the lead by five points or so.

   The call started by indicating that it was a poll, then asked whether I would vote for Obama, Romney, or ''not sure." It then proceeded to asking about whether I had a favorable, unfavorable, or no opinion of my congressman, Chip Cravaack. The next question was whether I would vote for Cravaack vs "someone else." It then asked whether I would vote for Cravaack or Rick Nolan. It then asked whether, if I knew that a candidate was opposed to a woman's right to choose, it would make me more or less likely to vote for that candidate, or have no effect. The same question was then asked regarding the effect of a candidate's vote for the Ryan Budget. Finally, it asked for the demographic data: party, gender, age, and race. Finally, it Identified itself as being from PPP.
    I didn't notice any explicit or subtle indications regarding whether I was a "likely voter," or even registered to vote. I was surprised by the double polling of Cravaack vs "someone else," then specifically vs Rick Nolan. That made me wonder if someone was looking for the "buyer's remorse." Several fact-checkers have just flagged a couple of anti-Cravaack ads as "false" for claiming that the congressman, whose wife and children live in New Hampshire, doesn't actually live in the district.
    I'm curious as to whether they'll release the "Obama vs Romney" question, since Minnesota's been pretty blue in polling so far, & it won't mean much if they don't poll the whole state. As far as I know, only three or four of the eight congressional races here are contests, & they didn't bother to ask about Senator Amy Klobuchar's race vs Kurt Bills.

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Comment Preferences

  •  And, after all that, I've already voted! (6+ / 0-)

        Minnesota doesn't have actual "early voting," but we can apply in person for an absentee ballot at the county auditor's office and then fill it out immediately in a mini-polling place. I had a short wait last Friday afternoon, with about eight other people voting the same time I was, with two busy county employees running the show.

    -7.25, -6.26

    We are men of action; lies do not become us.

    by ER Doc on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 05:41:20 PM PDT

    •  You probably will not be counted; (0+ / 0-)

      when Zogby was on C-span over 4 years ago or so, he revealed all sorts of polling skewers they had to pull off. For instance if you were male and they already had their quota of males of a certain age, you get thrown out. They probably have to call ten times the number they really count and do all sorts of weighting to match the population. And their biggest problem was the increase in hang up calls. Nobody who has a land line wants it used for this purpose. And imagine how many they are missing who do not have land lines.

  •  False? Draw one's own conclusions. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ER Doc, keewatinrose

    On the residency question, the only defense I have heard from Cravaack is that he "owns a house in North Branch." Meanwhile, his family lives over 1,000 miles away.

    I'm sure there is some legal definition that describes what it means to live in a Congressional district, but taken at face value Cravaack's connection looks tenuous. Splitting one's time between DC and the home district is hard enough. Adding a third locale to that makes one wonder how often he actually steps foot in MN-08.

    The primary alternate explanation, which is pure speculation on my part, is that he has separated from his wife and they are sitting on the divorce announcement until after the election.

    Outside of a dog, a book is man's best friend. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read. - Groucho Marx

    by Joe Bob on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 06:43:33 PM PDT

    •  The Minnesota Public Radio fact-checkers (0+ / 0-)

      used his official calendar to determine that he actually did spend most of his time either in Washington or in Minnesota. Almost all of his time in Minnesota, though, is tightly scheduled with campaign visits, fund-raisers, and photo-ops. I don't think he uses his house in North Branch as anything more than a hotel room. All his unscheduled time away from Washington appears to be spent in New Hampshire.
            I don't know anything about a possible divorce. If it happens, though, she'll probably pay alimony to him. He has a $75,000 disability income from his old airline job, (sleep apnea; not a good thing for an airline pilot,) another pension as a retired Navy captain, plus his Congressional salary, but she's a highly-paid corporate executive with international pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk.

      -7.25, -6.26

      We are men of action; lies do not become us.

      by ER Doc on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 08:34:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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