Everyone is familiar with the old adage, "Hindsight is 20/20." Well, apparently this isn't true if you are Gallup.
In a new article, laughably entitled, 2012 U.S. Electorate Looks Like 2008, the provide us with their hilarious breakdown of the expected 2012 electorate and their even more hilarious numbers for past elections in 2004 and 2008.
The problem is that their numbers are out of whack with exit data from the 2004 and 2008 elections and data from the non-partisan Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University. I think this explains a lot of the Gallup polling we are seeing.
Data beneath the Orange Nuée Ardante du Kos.
First, let's peep the numbers for female voters.
DATA SOURCE/Demo |
2004 %
|
2008 %
|
2012 %
|
GALLUP/Female |
54
|
53
|
52
|
EXIT POLLS/Female |
54
|
53
|
?
|
RUTGERS/Female |
51.6
|
53.7
|
?
|
Rutgers uses the U.S. Census Bureau post-election responses to the Current Population Survey. Their data shows increasing gaps among women and men since the early 80s.
PDF
Also, their data shows that much of the gender gap is because younger women get to the polls at a much higher rate than younger men. The percentage gap is about 7% for women versus men for voters 44 years old and younger. Therefore, what Gallup is telling us that women 44 and younger won't be especially motivated to vote this year. How does that pass the smell test?
But it gets worse when we look at the non-Hispanic white vote . . .
DATA SOURCE/Demo |
2004 %
|
2008 %
|
2012 %
|
GALLUP/White |
82
|
78
|
78
|
EXIT POLLS/White |
77
|
74
|
?
|
the Black vote . . .
DATA SOURCE/Demo |
2004 %
|
2008 %
|
2012 %
|
GALLUP/Black |
8
|
12
|
11
|
EXIT POLLS/Black |
11
|
13
|
?
|
the Latino vote . . .
DATA SOURCE/Demo |
2004 %
|
2008 %
|
2012 %
|
GALLUP/Latino |
6
|
6
|
7
|
EXIT POLLS/Latino |
8
|
9
|
?
|
the 18-29 vote . . .
DATA SOURCE/Demo |
2004 %
|
2008 %
|
2012 %
|
GALLUP/18-29 |
13
|
14
|
13
|
EXIT POLLS/18-29 |
17
|
18
|
?
|
So what they are selling is a 2012 electorate where 78% percent of the voters are white, and 18% of voters are Black or Hispanic, and only about 1 out of 8 voters under 30 manages to cast a vote.
You know, just like 2008! ;) So if you are young, have lady-parts, or if your skin's pigment does not come from a spray tan booth, Gallup doesn't think you are big on the whole voting thing . . . even when past data shows you voted!!! Perhaps we need to really get to the polls this year and get their attention.
Since census data and exit polling have a smaller margin of error than public opinion polls, they are clearly an inconvenient truth for Gallup. It is interesting that the media is curtailing their nation exit polling operation this year.
To their credit, Gallup provided these numbers for me and you to mock. Mocking can be conducted beneath the tip jar below . . .