I know graphics-heavy diaries are expected here. But there are several people who I know read me and I know are on dial-up. I apologize for the lack of visual aids, but I prefer to keep my diaries image-free as a courtesy to those on dial-up.
The hybrid system that Sandy will become is still forecast to strike New Jersey by Tuesday.
It is very important to not pay attention to the track of the center. Sandy will be an exceptionally powerful extratropical system by that time. Its high winds and rains will spread hundreds of miles from the center. Sandy's cloud shield already covers almost forty degrees of longitude---that's how big it is.
There is no chance this will turn out to sea. Across the entire Atlantic, a series of high pressure systems are currently setting up, as has been forecast for over a week. This block (called a Rex Block) is actually quite anomalous (they're very rare to begin with) and is quite possibly a result of the almost completely open Arctic Ocean, which continues to lose sea ice as the Earth quickly warms due to anthropogenic climate change.
You may have noticed the lack of hurricane watches and warnings for the Northeast. The Hurricane Center feels as Sandy will not be a tropical system at landfall, this isn't necessary. I agree with them. Hurricane warnings are for tropical systems, and Sandy will not be one in a day and a half. Still take all warnings deadly seriously. In this case, take all gale and storm warnings and treat them as hurricane warnings and act accordingly.
They may just change their minds, but there actually are rules about this, and hurricane warnings cost a substantial amount of money. They explain in the 5pm Saturday discussion:
FIRST A NOTE ON THE NWS WARNING STRATEGY FOR SANDY. IN ORDER TOAVOID THE RISK OF A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO
NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND
HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS WARNINGS ISSUED BY
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.
Don't just treat this as just another nasty nor'easter like the ones we get . Prepare for a long-duration, multiple-day storm that behaves like a Category 1 hurricane. Always prepare for at least one category higher than what's forecast.
This is mostly copy and paste from yesterday. This currently recced diary is also full of excellent tips.
If you live in coastal Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York City or the South Shore of Long Island, intimately get to know the following sites and do this right now. Tomorrow afternoon is too late and at any rate, mandatory evacuations for most of these locales begins around that time. There's an increasingly slim and getting slimmer chance you won't need this, but you should know it anyway. Do it now. Right now. Now.
NYC has an address locator. You should know if you're in a surge zone and act accordingly if asked to leave.
Residents of Long Island should get to know these maps. Surge maps may be useless as starting tonight, each high tide will simply get progressively higher until the tide just doesn't go out.
It looks increasingly likely that the subway system in New York City may flood. This has happened before, but not to the extent that may happen with this storm.
Residents of coastal New Jersey, these are maps you should know.
Maryland and Delaware, these are the storm surge maps for your area.
And by all means stay tuned to emergency management.
If you're staying at home this is what should be in your emergency kit (that everyone should have anyway):
•Water, one gallon of water per person per day for at least three days, for drinking and sanitation
•Food, at least a three-day supply of non-perishable food
•Battery-powered or hand crank radio and a NOAA Weather Radio with tone alert and extra batteries for both
•Flashlight and extra batteries
•First aid kit
•Whistle to signal for help
•Dust mask to help filter contaminated air and plastic sheeting and duct tape to shelter-in-place
•Moist towelettes, garbage bags and plastic ties for personal sanitation
•Wrench or pliers to turn off utilities
•Manual can opener for food
•Local maps
•Cell phone with chargers, inverter or solar charger
In cities, clear your storm drains of leaves. You will prevent a lot of urban street flooding with this simple thing. Do this especially if you have jerks for neighbors who simply rake the leaves into the street.
If you pick up fallen branches this afternoon, take them inside with you.
Have canned goods and water for at least 3 days. Actually, everyone should, for much longer.
Follow the tips in this diary and past ones.
And another important note for the inland mid-Atlantic. It has been dry this year, but Sandy could sit for days and rain. Main-stem rivers like the Susquehanna may rise and not crest until late next week. Because it's been so dry it won't be like last September's flood but it still could be significant. Prepare for that too.
And by all means avoid media hype and pay attention to emergency management. If you're asked to leave, do so. If you're not, hunker down at home. Stay safe, stay calm, and hopefully this ends up being just a wet, windy nuisance.