Vernon Township, Illinois, October 27, 2012.
I want to share what I saw at my Early Voting poling place yesterday, here in decidedly not a swing state, Illinois. The township covers an assortment of villages in the Northwest Suburbs of Chicago that have higher personal incomes, home values, etc than most American families. Business and professional men and women commute everyday by the thousands on the suburban trains, to the Loop. Democratic party registration outpaces Republican by almost 20 points.
What I perceived yesterday, as I endured an early voting queue for over an hour, left me with an unmistakeable conviction that any more talk about an enthusiasm gap among Democratic voters is pure hokum. From what I saw, Democratic voters are fired up and ready to go. If you come out into the tall grass, I'll tell you what I saw and you can decide for yourself if it means anything.
It all started before we even left the house to go vote Saturday morning, when Mrs. Left said she thought there would be a long line. Because I have spinal trouble that makes prolonged standing a problem, she thought I ought to stop at Target and get a camp stool or something to use in the line.
I didn't think there would be a line at all.
Early voting isn't much of a widespread practice in this part of the World. Usually, about 20% of Illinois voters vote early, though some areas spiked to 25% four years ago, when Democratic enthusiasm in Illinois was undeniable. I have personally also harbored a preference for voting on Election Day, but in 2008 I was planning to be out of state doing vote protection for the Obama campaign on Election Day. It was my first time early voting since moving into the area, and I recalled it as a quick, breeze in and breeze out experience.
Not so, yesterday. The street approaching the Township Hall is narrow, two lane and has grass shoulders. Both before and beyond the driveway entering the Hall parking lot, as we approached we saw cars parked in the grass on both sides of the road. The Township Hall parking lot itself has over 60 parking spaces. It is large because it also serves Township baseball diamonds on the site. When we got there, that lot was almost full and, as noted, many voters arriving earlier than us had to park on the grass along the road.
About 40 feet of voter line snaked down the hall from the building's entrance foyer, with a line two or three times longer than that trailing out the door into a crisp and brilliant Autumn afternoon. Based upon remarks from folks coming out after they voted, the line had been even longer shortly before we got there. I head counted sections of the line and estimated about 75 people waiting to vote, maybe more. As we got into the line, I looked over the folks waiting with us out in the sunshine and formed a couple of impressions and speculative suppositions. I asked Mrs. Left what was her first impression. She politely told me to SYFP and we'd talk about it later, on our own.
Everybody always notices that the delegates at a Democratic National Convention look like a reasonable cross section of America. Everybody always notices that at Republican Conventions, the cameras have to keep cutting back to the Black guy to try and keep the delegates from looking too much like an unhooded KKK meeting.
The people in line to vote looked like that first bunch; they looked more like America. There were lots of women, more than men. There was a rainbow of people of color up and down the line, African American, Asian, Central Asian, Hispanic. If anything, these people were younger than a DNC crowd; certainly they were almost all younger than me. Few obvious retirees were in evidence.
Likewise young people, both students and young working families were all up and down the line. An eighteen yo woman, student, voting for the first time, stood right in front of us the whole way, patiently reading a murder mystery paperback as we moved up the line.
Then there is the parking situation, again. On the roads around here, later model and larger vehicles, often luxury brands, are much to be seen. But the voters in this line didn't arrive in the Lexus SUV's, Hummers, BMW's and Escalades and other trophy trucks that plague the rest of us with their towering shadows as we try to scurry around them in our Priuses. Instead, the parking lot and roadside were full of the likes of Hondas, Fords, Chevys Toyotas, a few working trucks and vans, and other, dare I say, honest transportation.
There was no politicking going on in the line, no signs or pins or buttons or chants. Yet, by taking the advice given by my other half, and keeping my pie hole shut, I had the opportunity to quietly, ahem, overhear other voters' conversations. None of what I heard identified any likely Republican voters. Most of what I heard was in relation to our side's messages on the election. I could tell that some of these people were paying very close attention to real facts. I caught no whiff of anything the slightest bit FOXY from anyone.
Once we were cleared into the voting room I could see that almost ten people were voting at once. The small staff of poll workers were plainly stressed by the long lines and constant press. We overheard remarks about how high the turnout has been, exceeding 700 per day at this location.
The population of Vernon Township is about 65 thousand people. Based upon county wide registration figures, only about 57% are registered to vote. An average of about 70% of Vernon Township voters cast ballots in the last election. Historical early voting turnout in Illinois allows a rough estimate of how many should be expected to vote early this election in my home township. It works out to less than 6500 early voters in this particular Township. .
Early voting began last Monday and ends next Friday. It is about half over. If early voting turn out continues to grow as indicated by the poll workers' remarks I overheard, an all time high percentage may be voting early this year in this particular enclave of true, blue Illinois.
I would expect the kind of early voting organization and growth we have seen reported in places like North Carolina and Ohio. Nonstop TV ad carpet bombing along with the unprecedented organizational success of Obama for America are inevitably firing up voters and getting their votes into the box early. But nothing like that level of organization and no Presidential advertising at all is going on in Illinois, especially in the little corner that is prosperous, seemingly complacent Vernon Township.
Yet, Democratic leaning voting groups, like those I saw represented yesterday in the voting line at the Township Hall, are showing up in possibly record numbers to vote while, as Mrs. Left observed, the 1% and 1% wannabes (both male and female variants of this species can often be spotted by peculiarities of dress, adornment, skin or transport) simply were not in evidence at all. We know those Republican voters are out there. Their businesses are festooned with signs for Romney and down ballot Republicans. But if they were in line to vote with us, they were cleverly disguised.
The Obama turnout machine is working even where it isn't working. This suggests to me that there will be some stunning surprises in our favor in down ballot races all over the country. When Democrats vote, Democrats win. We will know soon. To understand that effect a bit better, in places like Ohio, and as a parting treat, check out Rachel Maddow's take on the Obama organization in that state.
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